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5 Most Disappointing Minnesota Twins Players in May


4 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

Regarding Sano, he didn't crack my top five because his performance is not far from what I'd expect so I can't be that disappointed. He's going to strikeout a ton. He's going to slug. His .476 slugging percentage was 50 points above league average for the month.

SLG asside, his May OBP was .261, walk rate cratered, and strikeout rate regressed back to almost 42%. I don't see how slugging percentage can come close to balancing out those other factors. He helped win a few games with random HRs, but how many games could have changed if he just puts a few balls in play with runners on? So many rallies snuffed out.

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Alex Colome deserves to be on the list as he is single handedly responsible for 4 losses. He was also the Twins big bullpen acquisition for the winter. 

In addition to many of the names mentioned above, I would have Ryan Jeffers on this list. He went from being in the pre-season RoY discussion to playing himself off the roster with a nearly 50% K rate. The consequences are that we have lost several games with passed balls or WP with Garver that a decent defensive catcher would have corralled. 
 

It is really approaching total system failure. The number of regular starters and pitchers who are meeting expectations are rather low  
 

 

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On the plus side Mitch Garver had a tremendous May.

.281 ave/.428 On base%/.579 Slug%/1.017 OPS

 

Also shout out to the new bullpen additions Hansel Robles and Alex Colome. Even though both were outperforming their underlying numbers in May.

Robles

2.51 ERA 10.05 K/9  (horrendous 6.28 walks per 9,    3.89FIP 4.54 xFIP)

 

Colome 

1.74 ERA 9.58 K/9 (4.67 FIP, 3.98 xFIP)

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1 hour ago, Eris said:

Alex Colome deserves to be on the list as he is single handedly responsible for 4 losses. He was also the Twins big bullpen acquisition for the winter. 

In addition to many of the names mentioned above, I would have Ryan Jeffers on this list. He went from being in the pre-season RoY discussion to playing himself off the roster with a nearly 50% K rate. The consequences are that we have lost several games with passed balls or WP with Garver that a decent defensive catcher would have corralled. 
 

It is really approaching total system failure. The number of regular starters and pitchers who are meeting expectations are rather low  
 

 

Colome gave up 2 earned runs and was credited with 0 blown saves in May.  His Left on base% was 97.2%. He allowed 0 inherited runners to score besides the runner on 2nd rule for extra innings which happened once.

He was responsible for 1 loss which was a walk off homerun in the 10th inning against Cleveland.

 

He was our best bullpen pitcher in May.

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19 minutes ago, SomeGuy said:

Colome gave up 2 earned runs and was credited with 0 blown saves in May.  His Left on base% was 97.2%. He allowed 0 inherited runners to score besides the runner on 2nd rule for extra innings which happened once.

He was responsible for 1 loss which was a walk off homerun in the 10th inning against Cleveland.

 

He was our best bullpen pitcher in May.

I think the other poster was quoting full season numbers rather than just May. Although Colomé has been a lower leverage pitcher this past month. His only high leverage appearance was that walk off loss in Cleveland.

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2 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

In regards to Colome.....he was better in May, but don't forget he also pitched in more "low-leverage" situations. We'll take any improvement, but still, he's being paid to close games, not work on his pitches during a 10 run blowout.

I disagree with the "low leverage" categorization.  The closer is a dying role.  Personally I'm glad we don't save a pitcher for a moment that may or may not be there for a save situation.

 

5/19 against the White Sox he entered in the 7th inning trailing 2-1 to face their 2,3 and 4 hitters  That was the not low leverage at all.   There aren't many instances where he was called on for a blow out game, I count three where the difference was 5 or more runs.

 

5/30 KC 8th inning losing 5-3

5/25 BAL 8th inning winning 6-3

5/24 BAL 9th winning 8-3

5/22  CLE 10th inning tied 3-3

5/19 CHI 7th losing 2-1

5/18 CHI 7th inning losing 4-2

5/15 OAK 8th inning losing 4-1

5/12 CHI 7th losing 13-7

5/7 DET 7th inning winning 4-3

5/5 TEX 7th and 8th inning losing 3-1

5/1  KC 9th inning losing 11-3 

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54 minutes ago, SomeGuy said:

I disagree with the "low leverage" categorization.  The closer is a dying role.  Personally I'm glad we don't save a pitcher for a moment that may or may not be there for a save situation.

5/19 against the White Sox he entered in the 7th inning trailing 2-1 to face their 2,3 and 4 hitters  That was the not low leverage at all.   There aren't many instances where he was called on for a blow out game, I count three where the difference was 5 or more runs.

5+ runs would be crazy low leverage. Late innings, down by 2-3 runs or more is generally considered low leverage (and the pitchers teams generally use in those situations confirms that).

It wasn't exclusively a low-leverage month for him, but Colomé's average game-entering leverage index (gmLI) for May was 0.73:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-colome/6661/game-log?type=5&gds=2021-05-01&gde=2021-05-31&season=&position=P

That indeed qualifies as "low leverage" per FangraphsAn LI of 1 is average. Anything above 1 is above average and anything below it is below average. We bin the situations into three groups (Low: 0-0.85, Medium: 0.85-2.0, High: 2.0+)

7 of Colomé's May appearance were "low leverage" by this definition, 3 were medium, and 1 was high.

The White Sox game you mention was his 3rd highest at 0.99, so it was right about average leverage. He was followed in that game by Thielbar and Alcala, with the score unchanged, to give you an idea about how the Twins approached that situation.

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37 minutes ago, spycake said:

5+ runs would be crazy low leverage. Late innings, down by 2-3 runs or more is generally considered low leverage (and the pitchers teams generally use in those situations confirms that).

It wasn't exclusively a low-leverage month for him, but Colomé's average game-entering leverage index (gmLI) for May was 0.73:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-colome/6661/game-log?type=5&gds=2021-05-01&gde=2021-05-31&season=&position=P

That indeed qualifies as "low leverage" per FangraphsAn LI of 1 is average. Anything above 1 is above average and anything below it is below average. We bin the situations into three groups (Low: 0-0.85, Medium: 0.85-2.0, High: 2.0+)

7 of Colomé's May appearance were "low leverage" by this definition, 3 were medium, and 1 was high.

The White Sox game you mention was his 3rd highest at 0.99, so it was right about average leverage. He was followed in that game by Thielbar and Alcala, with the score unchanged, to give you an idea about how the Twins approached that situation.

When you lose more games than you win then you will not be given a ton of "high leverage" situations.  It seems his entering while losing games are occuring after a few days off.  It could be he is being scheduled to pitch on days regardless of the outcome.  I look at who he enters the game to face in many of the situations he was called on to pitch when their mid order guys were due up.

 

Either way to say he was personally responsible for 4 loses in May was not a good take.  He deserves to be on a list of 5 best Twins in May.

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1 hour ago, SomeGuy said:

When you lose more games than you win then you will not be given a ton of "high leverage" situations.  It seems his entering while losing games are occuring after a few days off.  It could be he is being scheduled to pitch on days regardless of the outcome.  I look at who he enters the game to face in many of the situations he was called on to pitch when their mid order guys were due up.

 

Either way to say he was personally responsible for 4 loses in May was not a good take.  He deserves to be on a list of 5 best Twins in May.

The Twins have been pretty upfront about reducing Colomé’s leverage, so that’s not really an accident. He was generally 4th or 5th on the RP depth chart, which his leverage index reflects.

Like I said before, that other poster was mistakenly referring to full season stats rather than just May. Colomé clearly does not belong on a 5 worst list for May, you are correct about that.

But Colomé should not be considered among the 5 best Twins in May either. His RA9-WAR of 0.2 for the month would rank 4th among just pitchers, but overall it would only be tied for 11th on the team. We actually had a handful of hitters do pretty well this past month, even if you penalize a few for situational hitting (although it would seem a bit contradictory to simultaneously boost Colomé despite his meager situational value for the month).

 

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9 minutes ago, spycake said:

The Twins have been pretty upfront about reducing Colomé’s leverage, so that’s not really an accident. He was generally 4th or 5th on the RP depth chart, which his leverage index reflects.

Like I said before, that other poster was mistakenly referring to full season stats rather than just May. Colomé clearly does not belong on a 5 worst list for May, you are correct about that.

But Colomé should not be considered among the 5 best Twins in May either. His RA9-WAR of 0.2 for the month would rank 4th among just pitchers, but overall it would only be tied for 11th on the team. We actually had a handful of hitters do pretty well this past month, even if you penalize a few for situational hitting (although it would seem a bit contradictory to simultaneously boost Colomé despite his meager situational value for the month).

 

Seems like you are going to extreme lengths to discount Colome.  Might there be a bias?  

He gave up 3 runs (2 earned) the entire month and 2 of them were in one game.  Tremendous month!

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34 minutes ago, SomeGuy said:

Seems like you are going to extreme lengths to discount Colome.  Might there be a bias?  

He gave up 3 runs (2 earned) the entire month and 2 of them were in one game.  Tremendous month!

Noting that the Twins have largely refused to use him in close games the past month is “extreme lengths”?

May appearances in tie/hold/save situations: Rogers 11, Robles 11, Duffey 8, Thielbar 4, Alcala 4, Colomé 3

It’s not just random luck that Colomé hasn’t been in many close games, it has been a deliberate decision — one of many that I have no control over. :)

And Colomé gave up all 3 of his runs (and left 2 inherited runners for the next pitcher) in those 3 tie/hold games too.

It is hard to accumulate much value in relief, given those circumstances and performances. He has absolutely performed better in May than April, but I would not rank his May performance ahead of Polanco, Garver, Larnach, Refsynder, or Berrios, and probably a few other guys too.

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On 6/1/2021 at 7:43 AM, umterp23 said:

5 most disappointing things is slightly accurate but you should have made it a top 10.  

Miquel "He's just a K machine" Sano who is 2 for his last 25 with 14 K's, 43 K's in his last 90+ at Bats.  Mr. Swing and Miss is hitting 100 lbs less than his weight.  

Rocco Baldelli would be on this list for penciling in Sano on a daily basis.  My goodness his game management is not great.

Buxton, where has he been?  Oh that's right, in the medical tent once again

Hitting Coach?  Do the twins have anyone on the payroll that knows what they are doing? Maybe Cruz and his clubhouse leadership/mentor status that everyone loves to talk about should let us know who it is.  

Shoemaker who is 1-5 over his last 7 starts.  

Medical tent once again. Now that was funny! Thanks for the laugh.

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On 6/1/2021 at 9:50 PM, spycake said:

Noting that the Twins have largely refused to use him in close games the past month is “extreme lengths”?

May appearances in tie/hold/save situations: Rogers 11, Robles 11, Duffey 8, Thielbar 4, Alcala 4, Colomé 3

It’s not just random luck that Colomé hasn’t been in many close games, it has been a deliberate decision — one of many that I have no control over. :)

And Colomé gave up all 3 of his runs (and left 2 inherited runners for the next pitcher) in those 3 tie/hold games too.

It is hard to accumulate much value in relief, given those circumstances and performances. He has absolutely performed better in May than April, but I would not rank his May performance ahead of Polanco, Garver, Larnach, Refsynder, or Berrios, and probably a few other guys too.

Yeah extreme lengths to discount a 1.75 ERA......he did exactly what you want a reliever to do for the entire month of May.

He can't control what the situation is before he enters a game.  I even pointed out that he out pitched his expected outcome.  But there is no way you can spin that into anything but a great month.

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