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Potential Trade Packages for José Berríos


4 hours ago, se7799 said:

I think he's saying hes undervalue him because many are predicting only a return of a 100 to 150th ranked prospect.

I haven't done the research but I think the OP is treating Berrios like he is a half year rental not 1 and a half because the team that makes the trade if they can't keep Berrios would get a comp pick.  Depending on what team gets him would depend on where that comp pick lands but they get return value even if they cannot resign him.  If you factor that in I believe he should be worth a player in the top 100 and maybe a lottery ticket in the lower levels as well. 

I could be wrong but if the Twins don't get value that would be better than the 35th pick in the draft or so then there is really no need to trade him.  Teams that want him have to top that value and then some for the Twins to lose a year of Berrios and the first round draft Comp pick when he likely leaves.  To me that would be a top 100 player plus a little something extra at a minimum.  The FO doesn't have to trade him and they could use him next year the deal would have to blow them away or at least be an overpay IMO to be made.

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11 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Those numbers speak more to his durability than anything else as there have only been 53 pitchers to pitch 500+ innings since 2017. I understand that durability adds to his value but being 28th and 23rd in two categories puts him in the middle of the pack of that group.

The players I came up with are based off of the recent trades in my previous article that showed a single pitcher doesn’t net you a top-100 guy without adding more to the deal.

Sonny Grey in a mid season deal netted 2 top 100 prospects, Quintana netted a top 15 and a top 100 prospect. There is an error in your calculator. 

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10 hours ago, old nurse said:

Sonny Grey in a mid season deal netted 2 top 100 prospects, Quintana netted a top 15 and a top 100 prospect. There is an error in your calculator. 

Gray had 2.5 years of control when traded, and Quintana had 2.5 plus a team option for 3.5. Berrios is already down to 1.5.

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12 hours ago, Dman said:

I haven't done the research but I think the OP is treating Berrios like he is a half year rental not 1 and a half because the team that makes the trade if they can't keep Berrios would get a comp pick.  Depending on what team gets him would depend on where that comp pick lands but they get return value even if they cannot resign him.  If you factor that in I believe he should be worth a player in the top 100 and maybe a lottery ticket in the lower levels as well. 

I could be wrong but if the Twins don't get value that would be better than the 35th pick in the draft or so then there is really no need to trade him.  Teams that want him have to top that value and then some for the Twins to lose a year of Berrios and the first round draft Comp pick when he likely leaves.  To me that would be a top 100 player plus a little something extra at a minimum.  The FO doesn't have to trade him and they could use him next year the deal would have to blow them away or at least be an overpay IMO to be made.

The comp pick has value, although it wouldn’t be selected until 2023 and probably wouldn’t be ready for MLB until 2025-2026 at least. Even a top 150 prospect, who’s ready in the next ~2 years, could be more valuable for a team, just due to being further along the development schedule. See what the Jays did with Stroman.

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3 hours ago, spycake said:

The comp pick has value, although it wouldn’t be selected until 2023 and probably wouldn’t be ready for MLB until 2025-2026 at least. Even a top 150 prospect, who’s ready in the next ~2 years, could be more valuable for a team, just due to being further along the development schedule. See what the Jays did with Stroman.

I like your Stroman comp and feel the situation is similar for the Twins.  Still they will need a team that likes Berrios better than other options at the trade deadline and be willing to give up more prospect capital than for just a rental.

I agree it makes the most sense to trade rather than wait for the comp pick but the Twins FO needs to decide if having Berrios for one more year plus the comp pick is greater than what they might be offered in trade.  Going the comp pick route means it would likely be another 5 years from today before that player would help the team and that is assuming that player does not end up a bust as then they get nothing at all.  They would have to play the long game if they decide to go that route.

If they can trade for a top 100 to 150 player they get the assurance that said player has already done well professionally so won't bust straight out of the draft but will still have to be good enough to play with the best of the best.  Still that prospect in the trade can fail as well but the odds are better and the player has a chance to contribute in the next year or two if that player is at High A or AA.  So trading makes a lot of sense IMO but the return has to be there.  Can't just trade to trade they need to get something they need back.  

 

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22 hours ago, spycake said:

Gray had 2.5 years of control when traded, and Quintana had 2.5 plus a team option for 3.5. Berrios is already down to 1.5.

The value in Gray and Quintana were not in the length of contract. The Cubs were coming off a WS win and desperate to contend in the window. Pineda went down and the Yankees needed another starter. Supply and desperation determine the price paid, not the contract. 

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4 hours ago, old nurse said:

The value in Gray and Quintana were not in the length of contract. The Cubs were coming off a WS win and desperate to contend in the window. Pineda went down and the Yankees needed another starter. Supply and desperation determine the price paid, not the contract. 

Contract length always influences the cost to trade for the player.  Players like Gray and Quintana have significant value beyond the current year.  That benefit might be in the form of continuing to aid a contending team or the form of trading them if the team suddenly is no longer a contender.  This is hardly a new concept.  Value in this form is discussed frequently during the off-season and trade deadline on a myriad of baseball shows.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Contract length always influences the cost to trade for the player.  Players like Gray and Quintana have significant value beyond the current year.  That benefit might be in the form of continuing to aid a contending team or the form of trading them if the team suddenly is no longer a contender.  This is hardly a new concept.  Value in this form is discussed frequently during the off-season and trade deadline on a myriad of baseball shows.

If Pineda is not hurt the Yankees do not make the trade.. Severino and Montgomery were young and upcoming, Tanaka and And Sabathia had longer contracts. With a healthy Pineda there is no need for Gray. He was dumped for peanuts

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1 hour ago, old nurse said:

If Pineda is not hurt the Yankees do not make the trade.. Severino and Montgomery were young and upcoming, Tanaka and And Sabathia had longer contracts. With a healthy Pineda there is no need for Gray. He was dumped for peanuts

 

Do you suppose Gray did not bring much back because he was quite bad in 2018 (4.9 ERA)?  Also, you are arguing value based on the fact they needed a SP.  SO do most teams.  How does that change the value of a player who profiled as Gray did at the time.  Service time matters to value.  Gray and Quintana would not have brought back nearly as much as they did had they been rentals.  How much better are Whitesox as a result of trading Quintana and getting Cease and Jemenez?  Good SP s can bring a good haul which is why we have to listen to trade proposals for Berrios.

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On 6/1/2021 at 3:04 PM, Major League Ready said:

 

Do you suppose Gray did not bring much back because he was quite bad in 2018 (4.9 ERA)?  Also, you are arguing value based on the fact they needed a SP.  SO do most teams.  How does that change the value of a player who profiled as Gray did at the time.  Service time matters to value.  Gray and Quintana would not have brought back nearly as much as they did had they been rentals.  How much better are Whitesox as a result of trading Quintana and getting Cease and Jemenez?  Good SP s can bring a good haul which is why we have to listen to trade proposals for Berrios.

I an stating that a contending team will overpay for the shot to win, Somewhere way back in this piece somebody mentioned Berrios for a top 100 prospect is what could happen by a trade calculator. The calculator is wrong. That was the point.

Sonny Gray in New York did his best imitation of Josh Becket in Boston. Becket had done his best imitation of Carl Pavano in New York. Pavano was not the first player who went to the big two cities and fell flat.. 

 

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On 6/1/2021 at 7:08 AM, old nurse said:

The value in Gray and Quintana were not in the length of contract. The Cubs were coming off a WS win and desperate to contend in the window. Pineda went down and the Yankees needed another starter. Supply and desperation determine the price paid, not the contract. 

Sonny Gray was also not traded at the trade deadline, he was traded in the offseason.  Unless of course we are talking about Gray's trade TO the Yankees, in which case note that the Yankees then turned around and traded him to someone else.

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5 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Sonny Gray was also not traded at the trade deadline, he was traded in the offseason.  Unless of course we are talking about Gray's trade TO the Yankees, in which case note that the Yankees then turned around and traded him to someone else.

I thought it was clear that it was to the Yankees. I will type out the long version next time to remove doubt

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17 hours ago, old nurse said:

I thought it was clear that it was to the Yankees. I will type out the long version next time to remove doubt

Gotcha.  Part of the narrative for Berrios is the years of control.  The Yankees used that to trade Gray a second time.  Did the Yankees get the better deal?  An equivalent deal?

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16 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Gotcha.  Part of the narrative for Berrios is the years of control.  The Yankees used that to trade Gray a second time.  Did the Yankees get the better deal?  An equivalent deal?

Yankees gave up 3 decent prospects to Oakland to get Gray in 2017 -- all 3 were ranked in top 100 overall lists either before or after the 2017 season. Two have moved on to other orgs already but Kaprielian is in Oakland's rotation now.

Yankees got some value back in the Gray trade to Cincinnati too -- primarily the #38 overall pick in the 2019 draft.

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