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What is the biggest problem with this Twins team?


Message added by Squirrel,

I'm going to interject a mod warning as some posts are leaving the realm of true discussion ... be careful about calling players whiny and lazy. It is disrespectful. And so is referring to the FO as clowns. Yes, our frustration is high, and yes, some players are just not playing up to expectations for a number of reasons, and yes, I wish, I wish, I wsh. But when you are drawing conclusions, please include your evidence. If you are just giving an opinion, be careful not to cross the line into disrespectfulness. Thanks, and carry on. Respectfully. So characterizing players to suit your narrative and stop name calling.

It goes without saying that this season (thus far) has been a total disaster. And while things may be turning around (Winning 4 of the last 5) the Twins still have a long way to go, and haven't played the likes of the Yankees, Astros, A's, still have 13 games against the Sox, the Red Sox...they'll need to play teams better than the Orioles. I was wondering what y'all think is this team's biggest issue? I'll give my answer:

Many of you would say the bullpen is this team's biggest problem and that's reasonable. It's been dreadful pretty much all year, but especially since blowing a 6-0 lead to the ****ING Mariners. Even in some wins, the bullpen has coughed up a late lead and the offense bailed them out. (Last night for example) That is an indictment of Falvey’s errors. He has also been unable to develop at least one good lights-out bullpen arm (despite being a pitching guru). But, if you've watched this team the last 1.5 years, you've probably noticed a problem. This team has made Low IQ plays and has ignored fundamentals on a regular basis. Those two things are a reflection of this team's coaching, and yes, I believe that the coaching is the Twins biggest problem.

The Twins were expected to be an elite fielding team this year, after picking up Andrelton Simmons. A defense with Donaldson, Simmons, Buxton, and Kepler seems pretty great. Yet, somehow, I've seen these guys making Low IQ plays, particularly in the big spots. And even the other guys, while not as gifted defensively, are completely botching plays that High School players would make.

"Blame the players," one might say. And hey, you might be right. But here's a reality that sadly many of us ignore: We (at least most of us) don't have access to the clubhouse. We don't hear in on Rocco's pep talks and we don't watch the players in practice. We can't say for certain that players don't "give a ****" or "they aren't trying" because you have no logical evidence to back this up. Things like "he looks like he doesn't even care" or "he's not playing with passion" also have no evidence to back them up. Look, it's entirely possible that our players making these mistakes truly don't give a **** about winning and are just collecting checks. But how can we say this when we don't have evidence to back it up? It's like saying to someone who overcooked your dinner "you didn't even try."

Let's look at another example of this. In Week 2 of the 2020 NFL Season, the Falcons and Cowboys met in Dallas. The Falcons dominated the 1st Quarter, leading 20-0. Later in the game, in the 4th Quarter, the Falcons led 39-24. Of course the Falcons win, right? Well, no, actually. The Cowboys manage to make it 39-37 with over one minute left. All the Falcons have to do though is recover an onside kick. And, well, this happens:

Falcons Give up & Let Cowboys Recover Onside Kick | NFL 2020 - YouTube

The Cowboys end up winning the game, with Greg Zuerlein kicking a game winning FG as time expired. All Atlanta had to do was literally fall on the kick, and kneel down. But they didn't, rather, they just watched the kick roll on the ground, and Dallas recovered it just as it had traveled 10 yards. You might blame those players who just watched it roll. You might say, "they didn't even try, they didn't care, they didn't give a ****." Problem is, how do you know? Did you hear in on Dan Quinn telling his players to intentionally **** that up? Ultimately, that was a result of coaching. Quinn said after the game that his players know the onside kick rules. And it's not like that was the only mistake Atlanta made all year.

Atlanta would go on to find themselves 0-5 and firing Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff. Now, if that were the Jaguars, they wouldn't have been fired. The Jaguars were an absolute dumpster fire this past year (1-15). But the Jags didn't fire Marrone until after the season, for one specific reason: The were a bad team, with little to no talent. They were truly bad, and expected to be bad. Atlanta on the other hand, actually had talent. Now, that defense was absolute ass in motion. But they had a LOT of talent on offense. It wasn't performing in the other five of the first five games. And the Cowboys defense was almost as bad as the Falcons'. The Falcons were "wasting talent." They had been the past three years. Matt Ryan had a really good year in 2018 and the Falcons still went 7-9. That's unacceptable.

The Twins are in a similar spot. Buxton has been an MVP candidate this year (granted he's hurt, but even with him the Twins were freefalling) and the Twins have been REALLY bad. They've been wasting talent. The Twins aren't a team with no talent, and they aren't a team that expected to be bad. They expected to compete for a championship FFS.

This is not acceptable. Anyone who thinks it is...I don't know what to tell you. Somebody needs to pay. When a team with Championship aspirations is looking this bad, look no further than the coaches. It's their job to make sure that the players are performing well. If you blame the players, how do you hold them accountable? Cut them? Then you could pretty much cut this whole roster dammit. If you've been living under a rock, pretty much every player has made a Low IQ Play/Ridiculous Blunder thus far. Even Donaldson. Even Nelson Cruz (striking out on 3 pitches in key situations) We've seen Arraez airmail a routine throw that wins the game by FORTY ****ING FEET.

I think the Twins, unless an absolute miracle happens this year, will need to shake up their coaching staff. (again) I don't think Rocco is a bad manager. *ducks* But I can't be convinced that he's the right fit for this team. Edgar Varela should definitely be canned, seeing our hitters regress faster than I can finish this sentence. And maybe Wes Johnson too. I give him credit for 2019 and 2020, but in that case, he needs some of the blame for 2021. Every single pitcher on this roster outside of Rogers, Robles, and Pineda have also regressed faster than I can finish this sentence.

But hey that's just my opinion.

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These narratives about Baldelli need to stop. I'm hardly in the mood to defend the guy - I don't think he's done well as a field manager this season - but the hubris in comments and forums are driving

I think <50 games is too little to evaluate a coaching staff, particularly a recently successful one, but let's just say "their removal is on my radar at this point". As far as the team goes,

Nice bully rant, but you haven't addressed the OP's assertion. You've simply responded to "he does X" with "No, he doesnt." And then followed with the classic "Rocco played the game" argument.  A

I think <50 games is too little to evaluate a coaching staff, particularly a recently successful one, but let's just say "their removal is on my radar at this point".

As far as the team goes, I think the biggest need that won't fix itself is the bullpen. With the offense, their bizarre production splits make me believe they'll right themselves at some point, at least partially. The rotation has been up and down but I think there's enough there to recover, if not be good.

But the bullpen... Duffey simply isn't the same. Robles was always a risk and seems to be roughly what I expected him to be, a decent 4th-ish option in the pen. Colome will fix himself, I think, but he's still a big risk.

That leaves Rogers as the one guy who doesn't make me sweat when he takes the mound.

And one reliable guy is about 20% of the bullpen you need in the modern game.

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It is very possible that Rocco pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals. Berrios could have cost himself the game last night when he went for the spectacular double play and threw a 90 mph slider to Simmons who was charged with the error. Take the sure easy out in that situation every time. My main issue with the bull pen is they keep running Colome out there in game situations when my guess is that he is ineffective about 2/3 of the time. By the way, my main issue with analytics is that sports is not chess. Chess is pure strategy and tactics. In sports you are dealing with unpredictable human performance not chess pieces. Execution trumps strategy every time in sports.

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20 minutes ago, Number3 said:

It is very possible that Rocco pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals. Berrios could have cost himself the game last night when he went for the spectacular double play and threw a 90 mph slider to Simmons who was charged with the error. Take the sure easy out in that situation every time. My main issue with the bull pen is they keep running Colome out there in game situations when my guess is that he is ineffective about 2/3 of the time. By the way, my main issue with analytics is that sports is not chess. Chess is pure strategy and tactics. In sports you are dealing with unpredictable human performance not chess pieces. Execution trumps strategy every time in sports.

These narratives about Baldelli need to stop. I'm hardly in the mood to defend the guy - I don't think he's done well as a field manager this season - but the hubris in comments and forums are driving me up the wall.

Rocco Baldelli knows more about what it takes to play Major League Baseball than anyone on this forum or Twitter. Full stop.

He was an above average centerfielder at age 21, for crying out loud. He was on the path to having a really nice professional career before being knocked out of the game by a freak malady. But he "pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals"? Get out of here with that nonsense. There's plenty of room to criticize Baldelli for a myriad of reasons but he literally succeeded at the highest level of this game for multiple seasons. He's not some guy who spent a weekend learning Excel macros and exporting B-Ref tables, yet that's the way I see keyboard warriors talk about him on a daily basis.

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23 minutes ago, Number3 said:

It is very possible that Rocco pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals. Berrios could have cost himself the game last night when he went for the spectacular double play and threw a 90 mph slider to Simmons who was charged with the error. Take the sure easy out in that situation every time. My main issue with the bull pen is they keep running Colome out there in game situations when my guess is that he is ineffective about 2/3 of the time. By the way, my main issue with analytics is that sports is not chess. Chess is pure strategy and tactics. In sports you are dealing with unpredictable human performance not chess pieces. Execution trumps strategy every time in sports.

Exactly. That’s what I was referring to with the coaching staff. Even if we got Hendricks and Snell in the offseason, we still wouldn’t go anywhere past the first round, because Hendricks and Snell wouldn’t fix the constant awful execution of this whole team.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Rocco Baldelli knows more about what it takes to play Major League Baseball than anyone on this forum or Twitter. Full stop.

Baldelli is clearly a good guy, a smart guy, and a baseball guy.  We see it often in the NFL where smart ex-players get into coaching and fail miserably.*  Maybe it even happens more often than not.

Before going on too long about it, it's a fair opinion that Baldelli does not seem to have the right analytical skills to be a game manager.  The team narrative is they are focused on raw numbers now, if that's accurate, I think the poster has a worthwhile opinion.

*Yes, Baldelli has not failed miserably.  

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20 hours ago, cHawk said:

Many of you would say the bullpen is this team's biggest problem and that's reasonable. It's been dreadful pretty much all year, but especially since blowing a 6-0 lead to the ****ING Mariners. Even in some wins, the bullpen has coughed up a late lead and the offense bailed them out. (Last night for example) That is a result of Falvey being lazy.

"Blame the players," one might say. And hey, you might be right. But here's a reality that sadly many of us ignore: We (at least most of us) don't have access to the clubhouse. We don't hear in on Rocco's pep talks and we don't watch the players in practice. We can't say for certain that players don't "give a ****" or "they aren't trying" because you have no logical evidence to back this up. Things like "he looks like he doesn't even care" or "he's not playing with passion" also have no evidence to back them up. Look, it's entirely possible that our players making these mistakes truly don't give a **** about winning and are just collecting checks. But how can we say this when we don't have evidence to back it up? It's like saying to someone who overcooked your dinner "you didn't even try."

 

Your lower paragraph here would seem to contradict your assertion in the top paragraph (emphasis added).  What evidence do you have Falvey was lazy?  He signed/acquired a number of new arms for the bullpen--the fact that Robles is the only one that has kinda sorta maybe worked out is an indictment of his plan, not his effort.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

These narratives about Baldelli need to stop. I'm hardly in the mood to defend the guy - I don't think he's done well as a field manager this season - but the hubris in comments and forums are driving me up the wall.

Rocco Baldelli knows more about what it takes to play Major League Baseball than anyone on this forum or Twitter. Full stop.

He was an above average centerfielder at age 21, for crying out loud. He was on the path to having a really nice professional career before being knocked out of the game by a freak malady. But he "pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals"? Get out of here with that nonsense. There's plenty of room to criticize Baldelli for a myriad of reasons but he literally succeeded at the highest level of this game for multiple seasons. He's not some guy who spent a weekend learning Excel macros and exporting B-Ref tables, yet that's the way I see keyboard warriors talk about him on a daily basis.

Paul Molitor was a vastly superior player to Baldelli--did you think he was a good manager who coached his teams up?  There is an enormous fallacy in thinking that just because someone did one task at the highest level they will be able to do a different task in a related field at the highest level.  It's like thinking the best car mechanic in the world would somehow be the best car designer in the world--maybe he would.  But I doubt it.

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9 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Your lower paragraph here would seem to contradict your assertion in the top paragraph (emphasis added).  What evidence do you have Falvey was lazy?  He signed/acquired a number of new arms for the bullpen--the fact that Robles is the only one that has kinda sorta maybe worked out is an indictment of his plan, not his effort.

I stand corrected. His plan was not sound, not his effort. Error on my part.

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8 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Paul Molitor was a vastly superior player to Baldelli--did you think he was a good manager who coached his teams up?  There is an enormous fallacy in thinking that just because someone did one task at the highest level they will be able to do a different task in a related field at the highest level.  It's like thinking the best car mechanic in the world would somehow be the best car designer in the world--maybe he would.  But I doubt it.

That's not what I responded to though, is it? I directly responded to the implication Baldelli was somehow ignoring fundamental baseball. And Baldelli didn't only play baseball, he spent several years in the front office of what is generally regarded as the smartest organization in baseball.

What is a bigger fallacy than thinking a skill will transfer - which wasn't my argument anyway - is the layman's assumption of incompetence at a high level in any given profession, which is implied about Baldelli on this forum all the time, including the post I quoted above.

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1 minute ago, cHawk said:

I stand corrected. His plan was not sound.

Eh, I think the plan is sound, just not foolproof.  It's pretty hard to have a foolproof plan in MLB.  Look at the bullpen ERA ranks below;

2011--30th

2012--17th

2013--14th

2014--21st

2015--21st

2016--26th

2017--22nd

2018--22nd

2019--10th

2020--6th

2021--25th

Until this year, Falvey had been able to improve the bullpen every year except 2018, and without handing out big deals in free agency.  I think Falvey is a smart guy, and so I hope he'll adjust, and try to supplement his preferred method of building a bullpen (finding undervalued veterans he can fix) with some other methods as well.

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23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's not what I responded to though, is it? I directly responded to the implication Baldelli was somehow ignoring fundamental baseball. And Baldelli didn't only play baseball, he spent several years in the front office of what is generally regarded as the smartest organization in baseball.

What is a bigger fallacy than thinking a skill will transfer - which wasn't my argument anyway - is the layman's assumption of incompetence at a high level in any given profession, which is implied about Baldelli on this forum all the time, including the post I quoted above.

I don't think Rocco is incompetent, I just don't think he's particularly good.  Is it all his fault?  No.  Will he be the one who has to wear it?  Yes, as has been true for almost all of baseball history, save the legends.  I don't think it's ridiculous to watch a team consistently fail at the fundamentals, and wonder if it might have something to do with the coaching staff not emphasizing them (or at least not emphasizing them enough).  That is what the poster you quoted said; "It is very possible that Rocco pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals".   He's not asserting a fact, he's tossing out a potential explanation for the poor fundamental play this team has exhibited for most of the season.  If this message board can no longer be used to propose hypotheses around the actions, seen and unseen, of the Twins organization, it will become a dull place indeed.

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49 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I don't think Rocco is incompetent, I just don't think he's particularly good.  Is it all his fault?  No.  Will he be the one who has to wear it?  Yes, as has been true for almost all of baseball history, save the legends.  I don't think it's ridiculous to watch a team consistently fail at the fundamentals, and wonder if it might have something to do with the coaching staff not emphasizing them (or at least not emphasizing them enough).  That is what the poster you quoted said; "It is very possible that Rocco pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals".   He's not asserting a fact, he's tossing out a potential explanation for the poor fundamental play this team has exhibited for most of the season.  If this message board can no longer be used to propose hypotheses around the actions, seen and unseen, of the Twins organization, it will become a dull place indeed.

That was kind of what I was highlighting. That has been a bigger problem then the competence level of the bullpen.

Overall, it doesn’t matter what the coach is doing wrong. We have no evidence that they’re doing Thing X or Thing Y wrong. Players constantly failing at fundamentals is unacceptable and cannot not be tolerated on a championship team. There needs to be a change, and, historically, coaches and managers usually get fired.  Infact, that’s the reason this team sucks so bad in the postseason. It’s not because they lack an “ace” (although that’s part of it). They fail at basic fundamentals. Teams like the Yankees are well coached and don’t make many mistakes. Smart teams beat the dumb ones, not just in the playoffs, but all the time. Likewise, NFL Teams that get the most deadball 15-yarders (Unnecessary Roughness and Unsportsmanlike Conduct) aren’t the ones who win Playoff Games, let alone Super Bowls

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4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I don't think Rocco is incompetent, I just don't think he's particularly good.  Is it all his fault?  No.  Will he be the one who has to wear it?  Yes, as has been true for almost all of baseball history, save the legends.  I don't think it's ridiculous to watch a team consistently fail at the fundamentals, and wonder if it might have something to do with the coaching staff not emphasizing them (or at least not emphasizing them enough).  That is what the poster you quoted said; "It is very possible that Rocco pays more attention to analytics than he does to fundamentals".   He's not asserting a fact, he's tossing out a potential explanation for the poor fundamental play this team has exhibited for most of the season.  If this message board can no longer be used to propose hypotheses around the actions, seen and unseen, of the Twins organization, it will become a dull place indeed.

People can suggest any hypotheticals they please, but it's also my right to push back hard on the worst of them, as I've done here. And it wasn't some innocuous "it feels like Baldelli has deprioritizing fundamentals", it was "Baldelli is prioritizing analytics over fundamentals", which just made me roll my eyes, as Baldelli was a solid fundamental player himself (good defensive player, good baserunner IIRC) and he just coached two fundamentally solid teams in 2019 and 2020.

It's just another variation on the lazy and tired "Baldelli doesn't understand baseball, only spreadsheets" take that has littered Twins Territory for the past couple of years and I'm gonna push back on that awful, lazy take every single time.

I have no problems with people criticizing Baldelli but I do have problems with bad takes that are just riffing off the worst, dumbest takes of talk radio and Twitter. 

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Whether or not Rocco is the right manager for this team is a fair question given the performance so far. You do have to balance this year's underachieving performance with the last 2 years of what I think can only fairly be called overachieving performance when making that evaluation, though. I think the evidence on Rocco is mixed. Same for the coaching staff.

When I don't think is mixed in the evidence regarding the pitching. Even in the better years like 2019, the pitching was never in the top 5 or 6, it was at best in the top 10 or 12. The fundamental problem is that the Twins organization has been unable to develop quality pitching through the minor league system and has developed almost no high-end, number 1 starter or lights out closer type pitching. The Twins also have been unwilling or unable to spend the kind of money it takes to get a number 1 type starter or lights out closer on the free agent market and instead has put money on veterans in the hope they can be developed into something close. That approach rarely works and, when it does, it's almost always just for a year or 2. I think the FO actually recognizes this because you can see them trying to improve the offense in order to carry what they know is at best a good but not great pitching staff and could be a mediocre to poor pitching staff, like our staff has been so far this year.

The fundamental problem has been our inability to develop quality pitching that can contribute at a high level while that pitcher is still under team control. Jose Berrios is really the only starter that comes readily to mind who fits that description in recent years. This FO's was hired specifically because they came from an organization in Cleveland that was able to develop a strong pitching pipeline. They have not been able to replicate that pipeline. That's what we need for this team to really have a shot at consistent contention. Frankly, that's what we need before this team has much of a shot at even winning a playoff series.

 

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9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This FO's was hired specifically because they came from an organization in Cleveland that was able to develop a strong pitching pipeline. They have not been able to replicate that pipeline.

To be fair, we really don't know how good this front office is doing at developing pitching. Their first draft was 2017, just four drafts ago, and then they lost an entire season in 2020, right when we were expecting to see that pitching pipeline either form or stall out.

Now we're nearly into June of 2021 when we should either see people graduating (or be disappointed at their failure) and instead, minor league affiliates have played roughly 20 games (thanks again for that, MLB).

All of this is such a mess just looking at it from the outside, I can't even imagine how much make-up work teams are scrambling to do after all these players were forced out of game action for ~18 months.

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7 hours ago, cHawk said:

Exactly. That’s what I was referring to with the coaching staff. Even if we got Hendricks and Snell in the offseason, we still wouldn’t go anywhere past the first round, because Hendricks and Snell wouldn’t fix the constant awful execution of this whole team.

So, he just forgot how to do his job this year? After two successful years? 

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55 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To be fair, we really don't know how good this front office is doing at developing pitching. Their first draft was 2017, just four drafts ago, and then they lost an entire season in 2020, right when we were expecting to see that pitching pipeline either form or stall out.

Now we're nearly into June of 2021 when we should either see people graduating (or be disappointed at their failure) and instead, minor league affiliates have played roughly 20 games (thanks again for that, MLB).

All of this is such a mess just looking at it from the outside, I can't even imagine how much make-up work teams are scrambling to do after all these players were forced out of game action for ~18 months.

And yet, other teams are promoting pitchers that are effective.....When do we finally get to start judging them? I've said at the end of this year.....Also, don't they have any responsibility to develop the players that were already in the system? 

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1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Whether or not Rocco is the right manager for this team is a fair question given the performance so far. You do have to balance this year's underachieving performance with the last 2 years of what I think can only fairly be called overachieving performance when making that evaluation, though. I think the evidence on Rocco is mixed. Same for the coaching staff.

When I don't think is mixed in the evidence regarding the pitching. Even in the better years like 2019, the pitching was never in the top 5 or 6, it was at best in the top 10 or 12. The fundamental problem is that the Twins organization has been unable to develop quality pitching through the minor league system and has developed almost no high-end, number 1 starter or lights out closer type pitching. The Twins also have been unwilling or unable to spend the kind of money it takes to get a number 1 type starter or lights out closer on the free agent market and instead has put money on veterans in the hope they can be developed into something close. That approach rarely works and, when it does, it's almost always just for a year or 2. I think the FO actually recognizes this because you can see them trying to improve the offense in order to carry what they know is at best a good but not great pitching staff and could be a mediocre to poor pitching staff, like our staff has been so far this year.

The fundamental problem has been our inability to develop quality pitching that can contribute at a high level while that pitcher is still under team control. Jose Berrios is really the only starter that comes readily to mind who fits that description in recent years. This FO's was hired specifically because they came from an organization in Cleveland that was able to develop a strong pitching pipeline. They have not been able to replicate that pipeline. That's what we need for this team to really have a shot at consistent contention. Frankly, that's what we need before this team has much of a shot at even winning a playoff series.

 

This is a year they expected to compete for a championship, supposedly, and they brought in Happ and Shoemaker....so I'm not sure they are every going to "spend what it takes".

Pitching is the number 1 issue with this team, and it isn't close. The hitters will eventually hit....but other than Berrios and Maeda pitching better, no one on the MLB roster has much upside more than they are showing. No one.

edit: ok, Alcala and possibly duffey...possibly. 

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1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

And yet, other teams are promoting pitchers that are effective.....When do we finally get to start judging them? I've said at the end of this year.....Also, don't they have any responsibility to develop the players that were already in the system? 

Not all teams were in the same position through the pandemic... where teams like the Marlins loaded their practice squad with prospects, the Twins used those spots (rightly, I'd argue) on potential MLB role players.

I'm not giving this front office a pass, not in the least, just acknowledging the difficult reality they navigated through last year and that this pitching pipeline might be really good (or really bad), we simply don't know yet (and maybe they don't either).

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16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, he just forgot how to do his job this year? After two successful years? 

No, he did his job the last two years. This year, he hasn’t done his job well. I’m not saying that he just forgot, or he isn’t trying. What I’m trying to say is this team’s poor performance is a result of coaching. The coaching did well in 2019, so-so IMO in 2020, and has been problematic this year. If this team ends up flopping this year like they have so far, I think the coaches deserve some of the blame.

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