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On July 20th, what record makes you buy at the deadline?


What will it take to buy instead of sell on the 2021 season?  

58 members have voted

  1. 1. Over the next 50 games, what record will convince you the Twins should buy or, at the very least, not sell pieces this season?

    • 20-30 for a total record of 38-59 - if this doesn't make you sell, you're a crazy person, log out and seek help
      1
    • 25-25 for a total record of 43-54 - if you're buying here, you're only slightly less crazy than the person above
      2
    • 30-20 for a total record of 48-49
      31
    • 35-15 for a total record of 53-44
      23
    • 40-10 for a total record of 58-39 - if you're not buying after a 40-10 stretch of baseball, go hang with the other crazy people up top
      1


The atrocious part of the 2021 season seems to finally be in the past. That doesn't mean the Twins will be good, but I think we can all agree this roster isn't anything close to "the worst team in baseball" territory. Y'all saw the Orioles last night, after all...

I figure, being on the slightly cautious side, the Twins will have to make a decision around July 20th whether to push the chips into the middle or fold their hand. In reality, they can probably push more toward July 26-28 but if you want the best return, and the Twins have a ton of decent/good pieces available to move, you're going to want to start dangling players like Cruz (limited market) as early as possible so you're not left standing without a chair when the music stops playing.

The Twins are currently 18-29, -11 games to .500 after 47 games.

On July 20th, they will complete their 97th game, giving them 50 games between now and then.

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One thing that I think makes this really hard to predict is that injuries across the league are out of control.  I don't know if the pandemic is to blame, but teams have guys dropping like flies.  

It's a double-edged sword....have the Twins seen "their share" and now they play on against teams who lose big contributors?  Or, is this just the beginning of a frustrating rash of injuries and no amount of good play is ever going to be convincing?

Personally I feel like this entire season is going to feel like a mulligan where some exciting young players got to debut and we do basically nothing at the deadline.

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Just now, TheLeviathan said:

Personally I feel like this entire season is going to feel like a mulligan where some exciting young players got to debut and we do basically nothing at the deadline.

I could see that happening under very specific circumstances but I suspect that, at the very minimum, this front office either sells Cruz/Pineda/Simmons/Happ or they acquire at least one reliever, even if the reliever isn't very good.

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I think the question more pertinent to whether the Twins are buyers or sellers is how many games back of a playoff spot are they? Do they have a chance at the deadline to make the playoffs, and how slim is it?

I would rather see the Twins be buyers at the deadline to make a push for a play-in game than see them as sellers. If they are within 5 games for the division, maybe 7 for a playoff spot, I would hope they would look to add.

 

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1 minute ago, 70charger said:

I think being around 500 at the trade deadline, with this core, and with this soft division, is enough to at least let the players try to go on a run. 

The only question I have about that is how realistic 500 is with the team having dug a hole this deep and having so many injury issues. 

Yeah, it's hard to get a read on whether .500 is even possible 50 games from now. I suspect we'll have a much better idea of that in about ten days. If the Twins can't mash their way through the upcoming cupcake schedule, it's highly unlikely they will ever come close to .500 this season.

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Some dubious if's:

  • If Buck stays healthy.
  • If Killer's wrist doesn't bark too loud.
  • If Polanco's ankle holds up.
  • If Maeda's groin heals.
  • If Donaldson's calves are okay.
  • If Dobnak pans out this year.
  • If Garlick keeps hitting.
  • If Refsnyder keeps playing this well.
  • If Sano stays healthy and productive.

Eh... the more dubious if's pile up (where there's a sad history), the more unlikely it seems that the Twins will turn this season around. I'm sure you guys could add a few more if's to this list. Usually we count them up at the beginning of the season to see just how laughable a playoff run will be. This season the team looked surprisingly healthy at the beginning, so perhaps we were fooled. 

To this list you can also add cascading if's. If Happ and Shoe go down and are replaced by Duran and Balsi, will the kids do okay? Rookie pitchers do not have a great history of instant domination, which pretty much is what the Twins will need in that scenario. 

That said, if the Twins really did go on one of those improbable winning streaks, the org does have a well-stocked farm. What would it cost to wrest big John Means from the rebuilding Orioles? A lot. It would hurt TD fans like us. But that's the kind of pitcher we would need, even assuming Maeda, Berrios and Pineda are healthy. Great pitching wins playoff games. 

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Depends on what the rest of the AL is doing.  Getting up to .500 by the trade deadline could be good enough to crawl back in it.  But, at the same time, the Twins have to realize at some point that simply making the playoffs doesn't mean much, as their worst-in-all-of-human-history futility in the postseason illustrates.  Even if the Twins go 40-10 over the next six weeks (ha), they are still only built to "just make it there and hope for luck."

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Going to echo a few other opinions and say I buy....or at least don't go on a selling rampage...if the team is healthier and playing better and crawls up to .500 IF the top of the division, whoever that may be, hasn't run away with it. Not being able to make a Wild Card and having little to no shot to win the ALC would make staying pay a fools errand.

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Interesting exercise and discussion.

But I suspect the dye is already cast...or is it set?  The more appropriate question might be at what record do the Twins sell off a few select pieces, sell quite a bit, or have a fire sale?  Who is included in a fire sale would be somewhat dependent on whether Berrios and/or Buxton agree to extensions and become part of the core of the next wave.  

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18 minutes ago, roger said:

Interesting exercise and discussion.

But I suspect the dye is already cast...or is it set?  The more appropriate question might be at what record do the Twins sell off a few select pieces, sell quite a bit, or have a fire sale?  Who is included in a fire sale would be somewhat dependent on whether Berrios and/or Buxton agree to extensions and become part of the core of the next wave.  

Really, I think there are only four states to late July for the Twins, based on order of likelihood in my eyes:

1. Sell expiring deals
2. Buy lightly, probably a reliever and/or role player
3. Sell expiring deals and Buxton/Berrios, Donaldson if possible
4. Buy big

I think the last two are unlikely, especially the last one.

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4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Really, I think there are only four states to late July for the Twins, based on order of likelihood in my eyes:

1. Sell expiring deals
2. Buy lightly, probably a reliever and/or role player
3. Sell expiring deals and Buxton/Berrios, Donaldson if possible
4. Buy big

I think the last two are unlikely, especially the last one.

The first one seems most likely, and that's fine.  There is no reason to sell everything not nailed down.

However, I would add that shopping Sano around could yield a net plus. 

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1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

The first one seems most likely, and that's fine.  There is no reason to sell everything not nailed down.

However, I would add that shopping Sano around could yield a net plus. 

We disagree on Sano but I just don't see much of a reason to trade him, though he should be shopped (shouldn't everyone, though?). If he's bad, no one wants him. If he's good, the Twins want him unless they're also offloading Buxton and Berrios and Company, and that seems really really unlikely to me.

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I think they are going to need to be above 500 to not sell.  Using years past as precedent the Twins would need to be around 600 to capture a wild card spot.  That would be some heavy lifting down the stretch if they are only at 500 at that point. Also like some others mentioned I am not feeling like this team has the pitching to compete in the playoffs at all.  It might be better if they sell and try and shore up some weak spots in the system like Shortstop or Centerfield.  More pitching wouldn't hurt either.

Generally I only care about making the playoffs and not much more but like many fans I am starting to embrace the go big or go home mentality.  Just getting there isn't enough I think they need to shoot more for high end star players at all positions.  If they can get decent returns on some of their players in trade it could go a long way toward allowing them to take more chances on high ceiling low floor players in the draft.  Unless they make 2021 a development year for some of the young pitchers then it looks like they might need to do that in 2022.  They need to get out from under grabbing older vets with injury concerns and build a young staff of hurlers likely to make it through the year.  

For me they need to be at least 10 games over 500 at the deadline not to sell. if they manage that then I can live with them giving it a shot even though I think this would be a 1 and done team in playoffs.  Also to be honest the more games above 500 the team is the more pressure on the FO not to sell by fans and the team.  If they have a shot they won't sell even if it does make more sense than going for it IMO.  They need some of their young arms to come up and make a difference.  Their jobs likely depend on it.

 

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20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Really, I think there are only four states to late July for the Twins, based on order of likelihood in my eyes:

1. Sell expiring deals
2. Buy lightly, probably a reliever and/or role player
3. Sell expiring deals and Buxton/Berrios, Donaldson if possible
4. Buy big

I think the last two are unlikely, especially the last one.

Speaking of The Beagles, we can also retread some old hits.

5. Demote the current staff, call Terry Ryan, and have him sell everything and essentially turn the Twins into an expansion team. 

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5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Really, I think there are only four states to late July for the Twins, based on order of likelihood in my eyes:

1. Sell expiring deals
2. Buy lightly, probably a reliever and/or role player
3. Sell expiring deals and Buxton/Berrios, Donaldson if possible
4. Buy big

I think the last two are unlikely, especially the last one.

The Twins get the Sox for the final 3 times in the upcoming 50 games, with NY and Houston sprinkled in. Those series likely decide their fate at the deadline. MN can go 5-10 against that trio, 25-10 against the rest, and still end up at .500. I can see the Twins going the second route if something similar happens but I think that's just doubling down on mistakes already made. A band aid isn't fixing the pitching woes, and the August schedule is brutal to boot. Selling the expiring deals seems like the best option.  

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3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The Twins get the Sox for the final 3 times in the upcoming 50 games, with NY and Houston sprinkled in. Those series likely decide their fate at the deadline. MN can go 5-10 against that trio, 25-10 against the rest, and still end up at .500. I can see the Twins going the second route if something similar happens but I think that's just doubling down on mistakes already made. A band aid isn't fixing the pitching woes, and the August schedule is brutal to boot. Selling the expiring deals seems like the best option.  

What happens if the Twins go 8-7 or 9-6 against those teams while playing decently against the rest? Is selling still the best option?

It seems way too early to declare anything "the best option" when there are 50 games to be played before a decision should be made and 56-58 games before a decision must be made.

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4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I could see that happening under very specific circumstances but I suspect that, at the very minimum, this front office either sells Cruz/Pineda/Simmons/Happ or they acquire at least one reliever, even if the reliever isn't very good.

That's fair....but there is dubious value to be had.  I Agree though, at some point you get what you can.

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15 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What happens if the Twins go 8-7 or 9-6 against those teams while playing decently against the rest? Is selling still the best option?

It seems way too early to declare anything "the best option" when there are 50 games to be played before a decision should be made and 56-58 games before a decision must be made.

Likely, yes. Do you think a .500 Twins team navigates August at a similar win rate? Even if they do, they still need to climb over the two current wild card teams which each have a record inverse of the Twins'. Do we hope the Sox just fall apart or stop winning games against a bad division? "Best option," is post the 50 game threshold. 

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10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Likely, yes. Do you think a .500 Twins team navigates August at a similar win rate? Even if they do, they still need to climb over the two current wild card teams which each have a record inverse of the Twins'. Do we hope the Sox just fall apart or stop winning games against a bad division? "Best option," is post the 50 game threshold. 

Looking at the schedule, I see what you mean. The Twins have six against the Sox in July and just three more against them the rest of the season. If they don’t do serious damage to Chicago in July, it makes it very hard to see the Twins catching them under any circumstances. 

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3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

If the Twins go 20-30 in the next 50, that should be Berrios/Buxton selling territory.  40-10 should be Duran/Balazovic/Canterino dangling territory.

If we went 40-10 that would be a horrible strategy. I wouldn't offer Duran or Balazovic just for the simple fact that if Maeda keeps his form, he's going to be demoted to the bullpen or sold off for cash considerations or another bridge player. Berrios has clearly shown us he isn't interested in being with us long-term. He has all but said he wants to test the FA market when he's available to do so. On top of that, Big Mike's contract is up at the end of the year. Yes he has been consistent, but he may want too much for our team to keep him, with young arms in waiting.

And Shoemaker and Happ's contracts are coming to an end. The FO and fans have pretty much known that these 2 are just stop-gaps before Duran and Balazovic reach the big leagues. Also we have to look at the fact that Cruz's contract is up at the end of the year and it seems as if father time is starting to catch up to him (not making contact with fastballs up in the zone like he used). 

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3 minutes ago, mac098 said:

If we went 40-10 that would be a horrible strategy. I wouldn't offer Duran or Balazovic just for the simple fact that if Maeda keeps his form, he's going to be demoted to the bullpen or sold off for cash considerations or another bridge player. Berrios has clearly shown us he isn't interested in being with us long-term. He has all but said he wants to test the FA market when he's available to do so. On top of that, Big Mike's contract is up at the end of the year. Yes he has been consistent, but he may want too much for our team to keep him, with young arms in waiting.

And Shoemaker and Happ's contracts are coming to an end. The FO and fans have pretty much known that these 2 are just stop-gaps before Duran and Balazovic reach the big leagues. Also we have to look at the fact that Cruz's contract is up at the end of the year and it seems as if father time is starting to catch up to him (not making contact with fastballs up in the zone like he used). 

I don't think the Twins should be in a rush to dangle top prospects but if the team is 40-10 red hot going into the deadline, that's the time to move prospects as capital to push toward October.

After all, the goal is winning today, not tomorrow. That doesn't mean it's wise to sell tomorrow without hesitation but we watched the Twins stand pat at the deadline year after year in the 2000s and, in the end, all we experienced in October was failure.

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15 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think the Twins should be in a rush to dangle top prospects but if the team is 40-10 red hot going into the deadline, that's the time to move prospects as capital to push toward October.

After all, the goal is winning today, not tomorrow. That doesn't mean it's wise to sell tomorrow without hesitation but we watched the Twins stand pat at the deadline year after year in the 2000s and, in the end, all we experienced in October was failure.

I totally understand that, but at the same time as I said, Berrios has shown us that he is interested in testing the waters come FA. Also, we have a slew of veteran contracts expiring this off-season. Again, we would have to clear a few spots on the 40-man if we are going to try get some big names come the deadline. I would say keep who we can, and everyone else is available for the right price, regardless of our standings. Of course if things take a turn for the worst, we have a fire sale and shed a lot of these veteran contracts to teams that can and are willing to take them.

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I really can’t see the team getting to .500, even with a fairly easy schedule. But there is an unknown here. The White Sox. If they are running full throttle it’s unlikely the Twins will have any chance to catch them. The Sox would have to do their part in any scenario. As for the FO I doubt anything will make them become more than a very casual buyer at the most. I certainly wouldn’t invest much, and tie myself up for the future, to get into a play in game.

As for selling, I would.. these players were supposed to be the core for a successful run, and haven’t been. Playing helium ball as they did in 2019 and continue to attempt, is not a recipe for a sound competitive team. It’s a recipe for padding your stats against sub playoff quality pitching.  Some of the veterans are really getting into the long of tooth area, and our homegrown core has disappointed far more than succeeded. I very sadly include Buxton. He just has not been able to stay on the field, and I highly doubt he will re-up here anyway. It’s a shame, he was everything his potential teased us with, and he is truly the only difference maker the Twins have. If someone want to buy in on the continuing Sano illusion feel free. Buy I have gotten off that train. 

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28 minutes ago, Platoon said:

I really can’t see the team getting to .500, even with a fairly easy schedule. But there is an unknown here. The White Sox. If they are running full throttle it’s unlikely the Twins will have any chance to catch them. The Sox would have to do their part in any scenario. As for the FO I doubt anything will make them become more than a very casual buyer at the most. I certainly wouldn’t invest much, and tie myself up for the future, to get into a play in game.

As for selling, I would.. these players were supposed to be the core for a successful run, and haven’t been. Playing helium ball as they did in 2019 and continue to attempt, is not a recipe for a sound competitive team. It’s a recipe for padding your stats against sub playoff quality pitching.  Some of the veterans are really getting into the long of tooth area, and our homegrown core has disappointed far more than succeeded. I very sadly include Buxton. He just has not been able to stay on the field, and I highly doubt he will re-up here anyway. It’s a shame, he was everything his potential teased us with, and he is truly the only difference maker the Twins have. If someone want to buy in on the continuing Sano illusion feel free. Buy I have gotten off that train. 

They haven't been? They won the division two years in a row. The circumstances might have been odd, but they can only play the games put in front of them. This year is bad, sure, but to say they haven't done their job as the core so far seems like a stretch to me.

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