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DET 4, MIN 3: Twins Fail to Execute in Extras


My favorite part of the game was watching Duffey follow Thielbar. Both guys are curveball masters that used to have low-90's heat. Both guys did Johnson's power pitching course. Now Thielbar has a 94 mph heater to complement his assortment of slow curves. Not just higher velo, but with control. With that extra weapon he befuddled Detroit's hitters for a couple innings. 

 

When Duffey followed, I thought I could see him using the same approach with his new amped-up heat (94 to 96 mph) to go with his harder curves and occasional change. Clearly the extra couple mph - with added control - is helping both these guys dominate. Even better, the new mechanics appears to be easier on the body, which bodes well for longevity. 

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AZTwin please elaborate. I have felt roster management has been really good. But I have an open mind. So convince me.

Watch the game. I agree by and large it’s been good but there’s been some blunders and today was a result of that

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It's still a stupid rule, win or lose.

Well, it may be stupid. Or it may not. I suspect there are differences of opinion.

 

But the post I responded to said the rule was the reason the Twins lost.

 

Hard to support that claim, IMO.

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Slow pace to game with some credit to hitters for being tough outs. Kepler looked bad all day and had to get the ball in the air for a SF at least once. When Buxton hit his dribbler I thought Polanco should have held because the only play was at home. Detroit should be credited with two flawless plays at home though (poor JP).

It's a long season and playing .600 baseball is a good thing. An unusual outing for Stashek, which will happen from time to time, but he is a cool customer; I like him in our bullpen. He throws darts most of the time. Eventually, leftfield will need to sort itself out as either a platoon or someone stepping forward. Rooker and Garlick look out of sorts right now, although it is really early in the year.

I listened to the Tigers' feed on MLB.com. Kirk Gibson cracks me up.

 

I too listened to the broadcast on MLB channel on you tube.  They kept talking about pace of play and Gibson followed suit all game with his pace of play broadcasting.  Didn't realize it was him but he sounded so old in the booth.  Painful at times to listen to him slowly get the color commentary out.

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It's my understanding the Twins also start the 10th with a runner on second.

 

You could say the strategy game is different as the visitor team vs home.  So both losses we were visitor and if you don't score, home team has the advantage in my opinion.  Kind of like winning the coin toss in football, you go defense first and you know what you need to do.  Twins don't small ball anything so there is no pressure on Tigers to defend a bunt, hit behind the runner (except if it is Cruz).  It's swing really hard and hope you hit a bomba mentality.  Close games we aren't built for

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You could say the strategy game is different as the visitor team vs home. So both losses we were visitor and if you don't score, home team has the advantage in my opinion. Kind of like winning the coin toss in football, you go defense first and you know what you need to do.

Not quite like a coin toss — in the scenario you describe, the visiting team already failed to do something (score in top of inning) and the home team succeeded at something (preventing a run in the top of the inning). It is not a random event that advantages the home team in that scenario, it is their own good play. That’s like saying the advantage shifts to the offense after a lead off triple — of course it does, they did something good!

 

Also while it may seem advantageous to be able to play for 1 run, some of that is neutralized by the defense being able to play for preventing 1 run too. In the top of the 10th, there is a real downside for the home team on defense to issue intentional walks, play the infield in, etc. But those strategies become acceptable— recommended, even — for the visitors playing defense in the bottom of the inning. The home team may still get a slight net advantage but it could be rather small and easily dwarfed by other factors.

 

Would be interesting to see a study on this, if we have enough data.

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Can't watch the game and it is a lot harder to get a good feel when listening on the radio. But really wonder about some of the decisions being made early this year.

 

Happ started the season after missing about half of spring training. Yet, he was kept in to pitch as many, or was it the most, pitches of any starter first time thru the rotation?

 

Didn't Garlick beat out Rooker to start the season. Yet, since Rooker has been called up it seems like he is starting every game as Garlick sits. Is Garlick nursing an injury? Don't understand why he hasn't seen almost any action. 

 

And gon't get me started thinking about this bloody second base/extra inning rule. Again, couldn't see the game but don't understand why Polanco wasn't sent home on a single to the outfield. Then was on a contact play to get thrown out for the second time of the game.

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I take little stock in any single game in baseball.  Baseball is a game of failing at the plate.  We had a bad day, but the game prior they did pretty well with RISP.  So far this year we have done well.  Eventually it will balance out and you need to look at how they are doing overall.  One of the missed chances was Arraez hitting a ball that in just about every other park would be a grandslam, but in Detroit is a warning track out to center.  I did not check how many parks that would have been a HR in or off the wall, but I know Detroit has a very deep outfield. 

 

Another play that sticks out is Sano's worm burner into the shift that the second baseman made good stop to save a run and get an out.  Games like this will happen throughout the season.

 

I am most disappointed in Mr. Rooker so far.  He is being given a great chance to show he belongs at the majors and has done nothing so far.  Garlick is not doing much either.  It will only be a matter of time before Kirilloff gets in there.   I know it is short sample so far but neither has really given much to say oh that was just bad luck.

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Its early. It was a bad game. Twins have yet to figure out how to win with the extra inning gimmick. They failed badly in both their extra inning games so far. On the plus side, Buxton and Cruz are off to great starts. Please stay healthy.

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agree that Polanco should not have tried to score. Buxton would probably have been safe at first and the sacks would have been loaded. I guess most felt that he could not have scored on Cruz's hit...which was too bad. More often then not the runner at 2nd scores on a base hit.

Sano--well, 19 AB's and 10 k's in 5 games. 1 HR and 2 RBI. guess this topic is up for grabs with Twins fans. While I don't like the trend, it is consistent with his career. He may be on a pace for 30 HR's but also 250 k's if he gets 500 AB's. Rob Deer anyone?

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I am most disappointed in Mr. Rooker so far. He is being given a great chance to show he belongs at the majors and has done nothing so far. Garlick is not doing much either. It will only be a matter of time before Kirilloff gets in there. I know it is short sample so far but neither has really given much to say oh that was just bad luck.

This is why it's good to basically ignore stats for the first several weeks of the season.

 

We can all agree that Brent Rooker has looked like a trash fire out there but it's also 11 PAs, less than three full games of play. If he continues to flail like he has, the stats won't really matter, it's the fact he can't connect on hittable pitches and can't lay off unhittable pitches (he did both a few times yesterday alone).

 

On the other hand, Garlick has only 5 PAs but also has a .900 OPS in those appearances. His stat line is as equally unimportant as Rooker’s, though it highlights how extremely SSS can be wildly out of line with perception because if you missed on good PA, it looks like he has done nothing.

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I wasn't impressed with Happ but some how DET wasn't able to do any damage against him. I don't know if Happ was deceptionly good or DET was that bad. This new extra innings rule really favors the home team so I don't fault Robles.

I was at the start of season in favor of Dobnak to be in the rotation. Then I figured that long relief isn't so bad, in the beginning many starters shouldn't be able to go much beyond 4 innings. He could come in and pitch 2 or 3 innings and make a considerable contribution. But so far he's been used as a highest leverage closer and to mop up a game. Neither situation could contribute to confidence or establish his groove. Last year Dobnak was used as a starter when they needed a pitcher when someone went down (on short notice) or to pitch on short rest. In another words they don't want Dobnak as a legit starter but as someone they can throw under the bus. This IMO is a waste of Dobnak's potential. The 2 games they lost would've been the best situations to have pitched Dobnak, to take advantage of his talents and I believe with better results.

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I wasn't impressed with Happ but some how DET wasn't able to do any damage against him. I don't know if Happ was deceptionly good or DET was that bad. This new extra innings rule really favors the home team so I don't fault Robles.I was at the start of season in favor of Dobnak to be in the rotation. Then I figured that long relief isn't so bad, in the beginning many starters shouldn't be able to go much beyond 4 innings. He could come in and pitch 2 or 3 innings and make a considerable contribution. But so far he's been used as a highest leverage closer and to mop up a game. Neither situation could contribute to confidence or establish his groove. Last year Dobnak was used as a starter when they needed a pitcher when someone went down and to pitch on short rest. In another words they don't want Dobnak as a legit starter but as someone they can throw under the bus. This IMO is a waste of Dobnak's potential. The 2 games they lost would've been the best situations to have pitched Dobnak, to take advantage of his talents and I believe with better results.

Happ didn’t look very good but it’s hard to get a read on him after that start. He missed a lot of ST and Detroit is pretty bad.
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Sano needs to sit! MANY naseball players can hit 25-30 hrs a year....without striking out 50% of the time....and he isn't a gold glove first baseman either. So he is big....big deal. I would tell him to go to the triple A team to lose weight and learn thecstrike zone! Bring Laurnich up...at least to see what we've got there. Why is it that mostbTwins prospects have to be 25 to be brought up= either they are studs or not= shouldn't take a senior discount to find out! Outta here!

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As others have noted already, just a completely FRUSTRATING loss as our hitters failed produce with RISP. I do realize we're only 5 games into the season, BUT the following 3 hitters have been absolutely brutal: Polanco: 2-22/ .091. No way should he be hitting in top of order. He needs to sit. Sano: 2-19/.105 with 10 whiffs. Needs to ride pine with Polanco. I'm past the point of having patience with Sano. SOS with no adjustments. Benching those 2 for at least a couple of games would force Cave into playing 1B, but he could handle it even though his bat has been less than productive. Rooker: 1-11/.091-----looks totally LOST at the plate. He can join Sano and Polanco on the bench. Right now, I'd go with the following lineup:

 

Arraez-2B

Astudillo-3B

Cruz-DH

Kepler-RF

Buxton-CF

Garlick-LF

Cave-1B

Jeffers/Garver-C

Simmons-SS

 

Sour grapes, I realize, but this extra inning rule------needs to change-------IMO, it shouldnt start until the 12th inning.

 

 

I would definitely add Garver to your "need benching list". He might even be due for something worse. You can't send him down. Release him??

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I wonder if teams will start walking the first batter in extras. Seems like a force at all 3 bases would almost make it easier...

 

May as well. A runner at second with zero outs is worth 0.6 runs according to baseball-reference. I assume this means the assumption is the runner will score 60% of the time. If you are the defending team, you may as well increase your chances to get a double play, at minimum, to counter that. By putting another runner at first, the 60% already counting against you probably only goes up to 70% or something, whereas your chances of getting a double play would no doubt go up much further than 10%. And, of course, it makes a triple play possible.

 

This rule is also not fair at a league level. Meaning, the NL will have a 2-in-9 chance to either get the pitching position at the plate or be able to walk someone to get the pitching position at the plate. In those cases, the baserunner might be less valuable.

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I would definitely add Garver to your "need benching list". He might even be due for something worse. You can't send him down. Release him??

 

Let's compare the options:

Jeffers: .200 batting average, 55 OPS+, 2 WP/PB, 0 DRS
Garver: .200 batting average, 112 OPS+, 0 WP/PB, 0 DRS

Garver seems like the better option, but with these small sample sizes any decision is just gambling.

 

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It's my understanding the Twins also start the 10th with a runner on second.

 

Basically MLB has said it doesn't want extra inning games. At this point, they might as well make overtime a home run derby. Each player in the lineup gets 2 balls from a designated person that the mlb has stationed at every game. Once through the lineup and whoever has the most home runs, wins the game. MLB's version of an NHL shootout.

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Not quite like a coin toss — in the scenario you describe, the visiting team already failed to do something (score in top of inning) and the home team succeeded at something (preventing a run in the top of the inning). It is not a random event that advantages the home team in that scenario, it is their own good play. That’s like saying the advantage shifts to the offense after a lead off triple — of course it does, they did something good!

Also while it may seem advantageous to be able to play for 1 run, some of that is neutralized by the defense being able to play for preventing 1 run too. In the top of the 10th, there is a real downside for the home team on defense to issue intentional walks, play the infield in, etc. But those strategies become acceptable— recommended, even — for the visitors playing defense in the bottom of the inning. The home team may still get a slight net advantage but it could be rather small and easily dwarfed by other factors.

Would be interesting to see a study on this, if we have enough data.

 

agree with what you said, not any issues there but I still think of the football scenario especially college.  You go defense first or if home team you know you are on defense first. Yes, you make adjustments and make plays and prevent a run, same thing in football.  You make stops then you know how to play when on offense to get a run or multiple.  I don't like the 10th being the inning, would like to see the 12th and at that point, why not have a runner on 1st and 2nd?  Just thoughts, thanks your take on it

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