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Danny Santana


Some reports that the Twins are interested in Danny Santana! As a utility guy if he can still play SS and CF I can see how he would fit but hasn’t played much there in recent years. His bat has been good or really terrible so which one are you getting?

 

I like bringing guys in like this in minor league deals and see what you have but if he can play SS or CF anymore I don’t see how he fits.

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Sounds like he's still holding out for an MLB deal. If it's strictly an MiLB deal that doesn't require him being on the 40 man, then it makes sense for the Twins. Other than that, like you, I don't see the fit. 

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I'd be more than happy with Santana on a MiLB deal.

 

But considering the team will surely have a 2nd utility player on the 26 man roster and the other non-rookie options are Tzu-Wei Lin, Drew Maggi, JT Riddle or Rob Refsnyder, I'd probably cave in and give him a MLB deal if that's what it took. I don't want any of those other guys actually battling for a roster spot.

 

If the Twins are OK with Blankenhorn or Gordon riding pine and the team is planning to commit the last roster spot to one them, then I'm OK with the hard line on the MiLB deal.

 

 

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Played exclusively 1B or OF last year, played SS (poorly) for 9 games in 2019, otherwise hasn't played SS in 5 years. Improved but still pretty poor plate discipline. 2014 and 2019 batting lines definitely look like outliers. To echo others, I guess I'd give him a shot on a minor league deal, but not much more.

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To me it seems like that would push Rooker down a peg and likely to AAA, which I don't want to do. Without Rooker, he'd probably be a decent fit, but I'd rather see what Rooker has in him,

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To me it seems like that would push Rooker down a peg and likely to AAA, which I don't want to do. Without Rooker, he'd probably be a decent fit, but I'd rather see what Rooker has in him,

 

I think he'd be taking on the Adrianza spot. One of the AAAA utility players with no bat is almost certainly making the team unless they go with Blankenhorn or Gordon.

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I'd have taken him, but I'd rather have Jedd Gyorko if that can still happen.

 

Adrianza played so much the past four years. The #2 utility guy for the Twins always gets way more at bats than expected so I just really don't want it to be one of the guys they've already brought in on MiLB deals. All of them are just so poor offensively.

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You’re covered 3 deep at every position with players already on the 40-man. The only position where you’d be inclined to offer up a roster spot to upgrade your 3rd option would be CF and C. Catcher because it’s catcher, and CF, because it’s Buxton.

 

It’s a testament to how much of an afterthought Gordon has become that we think we need another guy. If one of Simmons or Polanco is down for an extended period, I would guess Gordon becomes the emergency option at short. He’s on the roster, he’s a shortstop, and he’s 25 years old. (Or maybe he’s waived this spring and one of the existing minor league options take on that role?) I would think that when both Simmons and Polanco are available (not necessarily both playing, but both available to play)...then the ‘extra’ utility option(s) can be guys with more offensive upside (including Blankenhorn) since you shouldn’t have to worry about playing any of them at SS.

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It’s a testament to how much of an afterthought Gordon has become that we think we need another guy. If one of Simmons or Polanco is down for an extended period, I would guess Gordon becomes the emergency option at short. He’s on the roster, he’s a shortstop, and he’s 25 years old. (Or maybe he’s waived this spring and one of the existing minor league options take on that role?) I would think that when both Simmons and Polanco are available (not necessarily both playing, but both available to play)...then the ‘extra’ utility option(s) can be guys with more offensive upside (including Blankenhorn) since you shouldn’t have to worry about playing any of them at SS.

 

I think you are right that it shows a lack of confidence in Gordon and watching him this spring I can see why.  He looks like a boy among men out there.  Next year the Twins will have to choose between keeping Gordon and Blankenhorn because they will have to add Lewis and if Lewis isn't ready for short then they will need another FA to fill that slot once again. 

 

So if they do keep Nick on the 40 man this year then he is there to cover for Short in an emergency nothing more, nothing less because I just don't see him being an answer for the Twins even in a Utility role.  He doesn't fit any of the things the Twins covet as he has little power, average speed, not great at getting walks, not a great defender. I just don't see the upside.  I think he can hit and he hit well in AAA last year but honestly I think the Twins can do better.  Hate to give up on a top 5, 1st round pick but If they can find a trade partner I would do it.

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Danny is already taken. He could be a steal. What surprises me is Bradley getting 24 mil for 2 years. That is a big overpayment for a guy who can't hit .250 even though he's a very good center fielder. What is this game coming to?

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What surprises me is Bradley getting 24 mil for 2 years. That is a big overpayment for a guy who can't hit .250 even though he's a very good center fielder. What is this game coming to?

A center fielder who can hit a little below league average and walks plus has a little pop is a scarce resource. The market for him should be stronger than it was for Eddie Rosario, for instance.

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What surprises me is Bradley getting 24 mil for 2 years. That is a big overpayment for a guy who can't hit .250 even though he's a very good center fielder. What is this game coming to?

The whole league only hit .245 last year. Bradley is about the same level below league AVG as Gaetti and Brunansky were for the 1980s Twins, and they both made about 4x the league average salary when they were around 30-31. (Bradley's 2021 may only be about 3x the league average.)

 

Hamburgers used to cost 10 cents too. :)

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A center fielder who can hit a little below league average and walks plus has a little pop is a scarce resource. The market for him should be stronger than it was for Eddie Rosario, for instance.

Yep. My only concern about JBJ is his ability to hit outside Fenway. I haven’t looked into his spray charts but his career road numbers are pretty bad.

 

But if he’s able to maintain his numbers over the past several seasons, $12m per is a good deal for a guy that is roughly a league average starter in center.

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Yep. My only concern about JBJ is his ability to hit outside Fenway. I haven’t looked into his spray charts but his career road numbers are pretty bad.

I forgot that JBJ was a 20-HR guy a couple of times. Some Red Sox fan I've turned out to be. I think I'll move back to Nevada sometime.

 

When I said "a little pop" I was thinking more along the lines of Greg Gagne,

 

But it's not the home runs that account for Bradley's problems on the road - he actually hit more of them there - but the batting average. .262 vs .217, wow. For his sake I hope it was just the home cooking and not something specific to the water in the Boston pipes.

 

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I forgot that JBJ was a 20-HR guy a couple of times. Some Red Sox fan I've turned out to be. I think I'll move back to Nevada sometime.

 

When I said "a little pop" I was thinking more along the lines of Greg Gagne,

 

But it's not the home runs that account for Bradley's problems on the road - he actually hit more of them there - but the batting average. .262 vs .217, wow. For his sake I hope it was just the home cooking and not something specific to the water in the Boston pipes.
 

Trash cans in the Fenway dugout...?

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Yep. My only concern about JBJ is his ability to hit outside Fenway. I haven’t looked into his spray charts but his career road numbers are pretty bad.

But if he’s able to maintain his numbers over the past several seasons, $12m per is a good deal for a guy that is roughly a league average starter in center.

 

It's not a sizable deal in today's terms so I wouldn't raise any eyebrows, but he's really only league average weighted entirely on his defense. Maybe he'll keep last year's offensive momentum going, but in the past four years he's 29th among qualified CF in O WAR, and it's a negative number. If you're really just paying for defense, Kevin Pillar may have been a better bargain.

 

I mean the Twins did basically the same thing with Simmons and I'm Ok with that, but when it comes to glove first guys who have a reasonable chance at being a lineup liability, I'm not going to pat any team on the back for the move.

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It's not a sizable deal in today's terms so I wouldn't raise any eyebrows, but he's really only league average weighted entirely on his defense. Maybe he'll keep last year's offensive momentum going, but in the past four years he's 29th among qualified CF in O WAR, and it's a negative number. If you're really just paying for defense, Kevin Pillar may have been a better bargain.

I don't know what criteria Fangraphs uses to put guys on those position lists, but I wouldn't consider it a list of "qualified CF" in any meaningful sense. Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Christian Yelich -- these are not CFers, and the fact that they have more offensive WAR than Bradley Jr. doesn't mean much.

 

MLB CF -- the guys actually playing CF in every lineup -- cumulatively have posted a 98 wRC+ over the past 4 years:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=39&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2017-03-01&endDate=2020-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=career&sort=-1,1

 

Over that same time span, Bradley has a 93 wRC+ -- a tick below average, but not much. (FWIW, Pillar has an 88 in that time.)

 

In terms of offensive runs (wRAA), the difference between Bradley and the cumulative MLB CF is about 3.9 runs over the last 4 seasons combined, or about 1.2 runs per 550 PA. That's one-eighth of 1 WAR per season.

 

I don't know how he'll do in 2021, away from Fenway, compared to Pillar, etc., but I think it's fair to characterize Bradley's recent offensive performance as roughly CF average.

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It's not a sizable deal in today's terms so I wouldn't raise any eyebrows, but he's really only league average weighted entirely on his defense. Maybe he'll keep last year's offensive momentum going, but in the past four years he's 29th among qualified CF in O WAR, and it's a negative number. If you're really just paying for defense, Kevin Pillar may have been a better bargain.

 

I mean the Twins did basically the same thing with Simmons and I'm Ok with that, but when it comes to glove first guys who have a reasonable chance at being a lineup liability, I'm not going to pat any team on the back for the move.

As spy pointed out, JBJ is a capable, if underwhelming, offensive CF. 

 

But I think the Simmons comparison is pretty spot on, actually. For some reason, both players are considered "bad" offensively when, in fact, they're just a smidge below average for the position. Their defense is what makes them good/very good but their offense doesn't get in the way of them being good, either.

 

(obviously, Simmons is amazeballs defensively while JBJ is only good so their overall outcomes aren't perfectly in line)

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As spy pointed out, JBJ is a capable, if underwhelming, offensive CF. 

 

But I think the Simmons comparison is pretty spot on, actually. For some reason, both players are considered "bad" offensively when, in fact, they're just a smidge below average for the position. Their defense is what makes them good/very good but their offense doesn't get in the way of them being good, either.

 

(obviously, Simmons is amazeballs defensively while JBJ is only good so their overall outcomes aren't perfectly in line)

I actually was surprised that he was only a bit below average offensively. It just seems like every time I've "seen" him, he looks like hot garbage at the plate. It's a good lesson on taking the actual results into account and not just relying on the eye test.

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I actually was surprised that he was only a bit below average offensively. It just seems like every time I've "seen" him, he looks like hot garbage at the plate. It's a good lesson on taking the actual results into account and not just relying on the eye test.

I remind myself of that every time I make some pronouncement from on high about a guy I saw a couple of times at McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket. :)

 

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