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BREAKING: Twins to Sign RHP Alex Colomé


Mutual option deals are always interesting.  I mean the only way both agree are if both sides believe the value is what they would get on open market, and both like the situation.  My guess it will not be picked up, because either Twins will not want to pay it, or Colome feels he can get more.  

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Some interesting talk on MLBTradeRumors about the Colome signing. Seems to be a rather heated debate about Colome's expanded stats (FIP, xFIP, K%, GB%, etc).

 

Some seem to think he's been very lucky for his entire career, others say that in this player's case, you can throw those expanded stats out the window. I'm guessing the Twins did their homework and I trust they know what they're doing. Good signing.

 

I frankly don't care how he gets outs. Just so long as he's effective. He has a history of getting the job done, looking forward to watching him in a Twins uniform.

All things being equal, I think the Twins prefer guys with all those shiny expanded peripheral stats.

 

But smart small and mid-market teams zig when conventional baseball zags. Colome has significantly outperformed his FIP in roughly half his seasons played. He has outperformed his FIP in all but one season. This isn't a two year blip of aberrant performance, he has some ability to outperform peripherals year after year.

 

And if that allows the Twins to get a $7-8m pitcher for $5m, I do that all day long.

 

On top of all that, the Twins have shown they can pluck a pitcher from even the best-run MLB franchises (say, the Dodgers) and make that pitcher even better with a few tweaks. And the Sox are a well-run franchise but they're not the Rays, Dodgers, or Yankees.

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It's a solid signing, shores up the bullpen nicely. he's not going to put up the SSS stats he did in 2020 over the course of the season, but there's no reason to think that he can't be similar to any of his previous three seasons, overall. 

 

I don't think he's going to be the "closer" because I don't think we're going to have that kind of role defined, but I'm sure he'll be called upon to finish many games. I feel pretty good about the bullpen right now: Colome, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Robles, Stashak, and Thielbar. Rogers is going to be deployed in more matchup related scenarios and guys like Robles & Colome will end up throwing a bunch of 9th innings that are actually lower leverage. There's probably going to be 1 more guy in there...who won't end up pitching enough to stay sharp. there are some interesting young arms to provide some depth, the top guys are good enough that if one or two of them get in a slump you can pull back on them a bit, give them lower leverage spots without screwing yourself.

 

I think they could use to sign one more starter (veteran on a make-good kind of deal) to compete for the 5th spot/provide depth, but that's about it. If there's a good deal on a better starter, I'd love of them to go for it...but I don't feel like they need to do it, only if it's the right guy at the right number.

 

 

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All things being equal, I think the Twins prefer guys with all those shiny expanded peripheral stats.

 

But smart small and mid-market teams zig when conventional baseball zags. Colome has significantly outperformed his FIP in roughly half his seasons played. He has outperformed his FIP in all but one season. This isn't a two year blip of aberrant performance, he has some ability to outperform peripherals year after year.

 

And if that allows the Twins to get a $7-8m pitcher for $5m, I do that all day long.

 

On top of all that, the Twins have shown they can pluck a pitcher from even the best-run MLB franchises (say, the Dodgers) and make that pitcher even better with a few tweaks. And the Sox are a well-run franchise but they're not the Rays, Dodgers, or Yankees.

 

So Colome provides evidence of the God particle of modern stats?

 

I like the signing. Cannot complain on the contract/price... would like another starter though.

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If we sign someone else who do you think are the first to DFA?

For me, It'd probably first be Gibaut, then Thorpe, Astudillo, Wade Jr, Waddell. Not sure where to put Gordon since he's only got one option left and has had problems getting on the field, but is the only backup SS on the 40 man.

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Some interesting talk on MLBTradeRumors about the Colome signing. Seems to be a rather heated debate about Colome's expanded stats (FIP, xFIP, K%, GB%, etc).

 

Some seem to think he's been very lucky for his entire career, others say that in this player's case, you can throw those expanded stats out the window. I'm guessing the Twins did their homework and I trust they know what they're doing. Good signing.

 

I frankly don't care how he gets outs. Just so long as he's effective. He has a history of getting the job done, looking forward to watching him in a Twins uniform.

At the end of the day I’d rather have a player who outperforms their advanced stats in a positive way than the inverse. I’m still haunted by Ricky Nolasco’s low FIP numbers as he tossed beach balls to batters.

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So Colome provides evidence of the God particle of modern stats?

 

I like the signing. Cannot complain on the contract/price... would like another starter though.

No, but also believing modern stats are infallible is little better than quoting RBI when discussing player projections. Modern stats are superior to what came before but even if they're 98% accurate (throwing out a random number here, not saying they're that accurate) that still means they're inaccurate for 2% of players. If players like Ricky Nolasco can routinely underperform their peripherals, it stands to reason the opposite can be true as well. I don't think it happens often - and it happens far less frequently than the anti-sabr crowd says - but it still likely happens because we don't have a stat that captures everything that happens on the field, much less one that captures what happens between a player's ears.

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Great article and signing. Im not anti-sabr by any means. But. I do have to question the extreme of saying pitcher wins, ERA, saves, and RBI stats don't matter. Isn't the ultimate goal to win games, prevent runs,and score runs? For example to the anti pitcher win stats...Id much rather have a pitcher win 20+ games with a lower strike out percentage than vise versa. Just my opinion.

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