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Blake Snell a trade target or not


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Some cautionary info was posted today by "harmony" over at metsdaddy.com and I thought it added some good perspective:

 

"Blake Snell failed to record a quality start in 16 outings this year between the regular season and the postseason. This year Snell averaged 4.55 innings per start in the regular season and 4.8 innings per start in the postseason.

 

This year Snell ranked 92nd among all pitchers in fWAR with 0.6 in 11 regular-season starts. Since the start of the 2019 season Snell ranks 55th in fWAR. Over his first two seasons in 2016-17 Snell ranked 81st in fWAR.

 

Snell’s 2018 Cy Young season appears to be the outlier. Of the 81 pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings this year, Snell at 29.4 percent easily had the highest percentage of fly balls result in home runs.

 

Buyer beware."

 

Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes it’s “unlikely” the Twins will go after the No. 1 free agent available, Trevor Bauer, or pursue trades for the Rays’ Blake Snell or the Cubs’ Yu Darvish.

 

Hello Jake Odorizzi?

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I would personally be happy to offer up Kirilloff and a few other prospects for him!!! What do you guys think he would cost and would you pull the trigger or not???

 

You don't trade for a frontline starter without giving up a top SP prospect. It would cost Balzovic (spelling) plus others...though I guess the Rays got Garza without a MiLB pitcher in the deal. But that's typically how it's done.

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I`m not a great Snell fan. Some people have some false illusion of him. They think because he can pitch a great 5 ininnings w/ occasional 6 or 7 that he`ll be a true ace, he`s good but not that good. Therefore his stock will be inflated & the Rays won`t ship him unless they get a great deal. I imagine what they want from MN is a Larnach,Balazovic & Jeffers trade & won`t settle for anything less. Which is way too high! Pitcher I`m looking for is a high untapped upside that Wes Johnson can work w/,for a bargain to fit into our budget w/o losing too much our future. Later this season we can evaluation our situation & get an ace if we think we need one

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Some cautionary info was posted today by "harmony" over at metsdaddy.com and I thought it added some good perspective:

 

"Blake Snell failed to record a quality start in 16 outings this year between the regular season and the postseason. This year Snell averaged 4.55 innings per start in the regular season and 4.8 innings per start in the postseason.

 

This year Snell ranked 92nd among all pitchers in fWAR with 0.6 in 11 regular-season starts. Since the start of the 2019 season Snell ranks 55th in fWAR. Over his first two seasons in 2016-17 Snell ranked 81st in fWAR.

 

Snell’s 2018 Cy Young season appears to be the outlier. Of the 81 pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings this year, Snell at 29.4 percent easily had the highest percentage of fly balls result in home runs.

 

Buyer beware."

 

Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes it’s “unlikely” the Twins will go after the No. 1 free agent available, Trevor Bauer, or pursue trades for the Rays’ Blake Snell or the Cubs’ Yu Darvish.

 

Hello Jake Odorizzi?

Thanks Ace! I read that article, was very enlightening. Yes, buyers be very aware of what you`re giving away for what you're getting

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No to trading Kirilloff, Lewis, Jeffers or Balazovic. No to trading Rooker also as I have a hunch he is going to be a better big league player than in the minors. When you have guys this close who continue to play as well as they have, you hold on to them and beginning in 2022 the Twins should have a dynamite club.

 

Oops, forgot Larnach. Add him to that future club.

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The rays just non-tendered Choi, their 1B-Man.  Not sure what their plan is for First Base.  Offer Sano in a package for Snell.  If they say no, fine, move on to other targets.  I'd rather have Kiriloff/Rooker playing 1B than Sano.  The shortcomings of Snell were laid out clearly.  He's very talented but there is some risk.  

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The rays just non-tendered Choi, their 1B-Man.  Not sure what their plan is for First Base.  Offer Sano in a package for Snell.  If they say no, fine, move on to other targets.  I'd rather have Kiriloff/Rooker playing 1B than Sano.  The shortcomings of Snell were laid out clearly.  He's very talented but there is some risk.  

Sano seems like a classic Rays rebound guy, but his contract would likely turn them off since they strive to have as small a payroll as possible. 

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The rays just non-tendered Choi, their 1B-Man.  Not sure what their plan is for First Base.  Offer Sano in a package for Snell.  If they say no, fine, move on to other targets.  I'd rather have Kiriloff/Rooker playing 1B than Sano.  The shortcomings of Snell were laid out clearly.  He's very talented but there is some risk.  

I agree 100%.  We can replace Sano and Snell maybe no better than a very good #3 pitcher, but I'll take it.

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The Twins don't need to trade the upcoming future.

 

Their current trade chips are guys currently on the roster: Garver, Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios. You either sign them ALL long term, or trade them. And those that you have signed, if they have value, trade them when the time comes. Not all this year. Maybe not a complete shakeout by next year, but I see few of these guys holding down the fort 4 years in Minnesota's future.

 

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Keep in mind that this is Tampa Bay we are discussing. If they agree to trade Snell to us it's likely that we are making an unfavorable trade.

I agree they are smartly run and a very shrewd team in their dealings. But the Odorizzi deal was very cheap on the Twins side of things and turned out very well. It could turn out even better if Oddo is brought back on a decent deal for both sides.

 

But, Snell is still cheap for 2021 and unless they are blown away, I don't see the Rays moving him until next off-season anyway.

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The Twins don't need to trade the upcoming future.

 

Their current trade chips are guys currently on the roster: Garver, Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios. You either sign them ALL long term, or trade them. And those that you have signed, if they have value, trade them when the time comes. Not all this year. Maybe not a complete shakeout by next year, but I see few of these guys holding down the fort 4 years in Minnesota's future.

I think you kind of nailed it here. The Twins are in a weird place, as are most teams, not just financially, but trying to figure out exactly what they have in young talent with no milb season in 2020, and what and how do you evaluate the expanded roster and the instructional league? This is not only in regard to promotions, but even trade value between teams.

 

Prospects are still prospects until they show otherwise. I get it. And I don't follow anyone else but the Twins. But when you have a contending roster, albeit with some holes and question marks you want/need to address, and a large group of young talent seemingly so close to hitting MLB, how do you trade said prospects at this time to augment your roster?

 

For NOW, I'm really hoping payroll and financial discussions would allow the team to keep what they have/know, and just make a couple smart and affordable signings....really hoping we can keep a $130-138M payroll...work the kids in, and then make any trade moves mid-season 2021 or next off-season.

 

I am not opposed to a smart move that makes sense for a quality return. We have depth to do something like that. If Johnson and the FO feels a guy like Snell is someone they really like and can work with, so be it. I'm not convinced at this point about Snell. The FO and staff are a whole lot smarter than I am. But I feel the team is in a perfect position to "tweak" the roster and hold off on trades for another half season or so.

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Keep in mind that this is Tampa Bay we are discussing. If they agree to trade Snell to us it's likely that we are making an unfavorable trade.

 

 

I agree they are smartly run and a very shrewd team in their dealings. But the Odorizzi deal was very cheap on the Twins side of things and turned out very well. It could turn out even better if Oddo is brought back on a decent deal for both sides.

But, Snell is still cheap for 2021 and unless they are blown away, I don't see the Rays moving him until next off-season anyway.

I thought about that when I made this post. Two things: One, Odorizzi was not a Cy Young winner, and, two, I would guess that Odorizzi had strongly signaled to Tampa Bay that he would leave as a free agent at his earliest opportunity. So they took the first satisfactory offer. Snell will generate far more interest and I'm certain the price will be much higher.

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The Twins are not parting with any of their top six prospects for Blake Snell. They may offer combinations of their other prospects and maybe Cave and/or Garver, but a trade with Tampa Bay seems unlikely. Snell does not meet the near 200 innings per year mark needed from a starting pitcher that would induce a club to part with their top prospects. Several years ago, Greinke and Verlander were solid bets. Today, Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo, and Yu Darvish among a few others look good. Trevor Bauer is a free agent. The problem is availability and dollars.

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The rays just non-tendered Choi, their 1B-Man.  Not sure what their plan is for First Base.  Offer Sano in a package for Snell.  If they say no, fine, move on to other targets.  I'd rather have Kiriloff/Rooker playing 1B than Sano.  The shortcomings of Snell were laid out clearly.  He's very talented but there is some risk.

The Rays don’t pay for 1B. They get a guy like Morrison for nothing on a cheap salary and he produces but they let him go when he gets more expensive I. Spite of a monster year. They get a guy like Cron for little and he produces for a few years and when he hits arbitration and a salary of 5-6 million they replace him with Choi. It is time to replace Choi with another pre-arb 1B. They aren’t going to pay for 1B and they certainly aren’t going to pay twice (the cost of his contract and the value of Snell). If they don’t already have a lost cost 1B they will find one without needing to trade off anything valuable.

 

The Twins don’t need to make that call. They can move on.

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The Twins are not parting with any of their top six prospects for Blake Snell. They may offer combinations of their other prospects and maybe Cave and/or Garver, but a trade with Tampa Bay seems unlikely. Snell does not meet the near 200 innings per year mark needed from a starting pitcher that would induce a club to part with their top prospects. Several years ago, Greinke and Verlander were solid bets. Today, Lance Lynn, Marco Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Luis Castillo, and Yu Darvish among a few others look good. Trevor Bauer is a free agent. The problem is availability and dollars.

In the last few years the only fleece trade was the Archer trade. Anybody can try to correct my notion but I do not see top multiple prospects being moved in the last few years. Prospects that have lost their luster like those in the Paxton trade get moved. Player like Glasnow who had not anned out as expected get moved. 

 

Any trades of the prospects mentioned in this article get moved it would signify the front office not liking their potential and there is still someone who does.

 

Your trade list has one flaw. The why question. Why would you trade for Lynn when he did not work out here before. Why would  you trade for the back end of Darvish's career especially once he played you for a contract? Lastly, why would the teams trade the other players unless it is a significant overpay that the Twins do not have the prospects for.

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Fair question - why? I don't think Lynn would be opposed to pitching for the Twins. He was pretty bitter at being ignored (collusion?) and signed late and never got into a groove. He is reasonable in price, steady, and the Rangers would likely part with a fair offer. Darvish is still tough but a real stretch and would have to come easy; the Cubs have problems. The others are not likely to be available, but I was searching for possibilities. The Twins need to ask, at least. The likely route is an Odorizzi deal or Kluber/Hill. There are other ideas that Falvine must have that we are not privy to, but I agree that the Twins are not going to send their top prospects off in a trade. 

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Like what has been well stated  that TB  is very shrewd. They won`t trade Snell unless they find someone who will give them a ridiculous offer.

I'd like to offer my opinion about the Kevin Cash/ Snell situation.

 Kevin  Cash is a great coach, he has had a few pitchers that pitched 200 innings or close to it, even in '18 Snell averaged a tad under 6 innings/ game which means he pitched quite a few games w/ 6+ innings. It takes a very rare breed of pitcher to face a line up the 3rd time around, especially in a top leverage situation. 2020 Cash managed TB to a fantastic season & the pitchers flourished under him. 

In the 2020 WS, I believe Cash made the right call by pulling Snell, you have to go w/ the strategy that has gotten you there, you`ve got the best BP to back you up. Cash didn't lose game, the BP showed that they aren`t  super human. Let`s say Cash would leave Snell in  until he got into trouble, odds are that he would  be very quickly. And instead the BP entering w/ a clean slate they come in w/ inherited runners OB w/ 0 outs. The result would be more disastrous w/ Snell being the loser & the goat & Snell's value would be deflated rather than inflated

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If the Rays want to save money, why not offer Berrios for Snell? They wouldn't do it straight up, but if the Twins threw in salary relief or one of Astudillo, Celestino, Cavaco or Gabriel Maciel?

 

Twins get 3 years of a SP instead of 2. Twins get higher upside and take on way more risk. Not sure I would even do that, since Berrios is a more proven commodity. Snell could be a trainwreck or he could be, well, he won a Cy Young. 

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Guess I am in the minority here, as I would ship a nice package for Snell. I am tired of losing in the post-season. Aces are hard to come by-he has a very good chance of being that the next 3 years. 

 

You would get him in his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, at 10.5, 12.5, and 16. He has been good/not great the last 2 years, so this is not exactly TB selling at the highest point. Would I give up the farm? No. But a good package. 

 

Maeda-Snell-Berrios-Pineda

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