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Twins Payroll Primer and Key Decisions

Unfortunately we’re talking about the offseason much earlier than we would’ve liked. Still, this is another critical winter for the Twins. Let’s take a look.The Nitty Gritty: payroll




Josh Donaldson - $21 million

Miguel Sanó - $11 million

Michael Pineda - $10 million

Max Kepler - $6.5 million

Jorge Polanco - $4.33 million

Kenta Maeda - $3.125 million (with incentives)

Sergio Romo - $5 million CLUB OPTION ($250K buyout)


TOTAL GUARANTEED MONEY - $56 million ($61 million w/ Romo)




With the way the season and stats went, these will be hard to project. MLB and the MLBPA haven’t yet decided on how arbitration numbers will be impacted by the shortened season. Let’s just say they’ll be somewhat close to regular numbers.


Eddie Rosario (3rd and final year) - proj. $10 million

Taylor Rogers (3rd of four years) - proj. $6 million

José Berríos (2nd of three years) - proj. $6.5 million

Byron Buxton (3rd of four years) - proj. $5 million

Tyler Duffey (2nd of three years) - proj. $2 million

Matt Wisler (2nd of three years) - proj. $1 million

Mitch Garver (1st of three years) - proj. $2.5 million




5 key decisions


1. Who is going to start in left field?


Eddie Rosario’s future with the Twins has been in question for quite some time. It was questionable at best whether the Twins would tender him close to $10 million before the pandemic wiped out much of 2020’s revenue. It now seems doubtful that Rosario is tendered such a lump some, at least from Minnesota.


Perhaps as an omen, Rosario was booted from the biggest game of the year Wednesday while top prospect Alex Kirilloff impressed in his debut both offensively and defensively in the outfield. Cutting or trading Rosario would bring the payroll to about $80 million.


2. Who is going to fill the utility role(s)?


Both Marwin González and Ehire Adrianza are entering the market after down years. González looked slow and far from potent at the plate, while Adrianza struggled to barrel up anything all year.


The Twins will have to fill these two spots. They need someone who can play shortstop, especially after Polanco was forced to play through an ankle injury throughout 2020. Royce Lewis probably won’t be groomed by opening day. The Twins may bring back the 31-year-old Adrianza, a known entity who is more than capable of filling in up the middle.


Josh Donaldson’s first year with the Twins was cut considerably by his nagging calf. The Twins need someone who can hit and fill in at third (or first) base when needed. Given González’s struggles and rapid decline, I’d prefer they look elsewhere. Perhaps Travis Blankenhorn could fill this role?


3. Who will fill out the starting rotation?


The Twins are in a much better position than they were heading into last offseason. They had only Berríos returning to the rotation, albeit with a pitching-rich free agent market. This time around, they have Berríos, Pineda and newfound ace Maeda. Randy Dobnak faded down the stretch but his still-excellent career 3.12 may earn him the fifth job.


The final spot in the rotation could be filled from within as well. Jhoan Duran hasn’t pitched above Double-A but could be ready soon with electric raw stuff. Jordan Balazovic is probably further away.


On the market, the Twins could make a run at the presumable NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. The acquisition of Bauer would put the Twins’ rotation near the top of the league, but at what cost? Other free agent hurlers: Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jake Odorizzi, who has expressed a desire to return to Minnesota.


4. Should they re-sign Nelson Cruz?


Cruz will turn 41 next July but just put together another world-beating campaign. The heart and soul of the team hit .303 with a .992 OPS and 16 homers while playing in 53 out of 60 games. A sore knee hindered him into the playoffs but he was the only Twin to drive in a run, responsible for both during the wild card round. Cruz still hit .286/.384/.460 in September, sore knee and all.


Derek Falvey indicated Thursday that the Twins are mutually interested in bringing Nelly back. According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins balked at the notion of an extension during spring training. Perhaps Cruz’s top-10 MVP finish will change their minds.


There’s also the issue of saturation. Brent Rooker made his debut and looked great, hitting .316 with a .960 OPS over his first 21 plate appearances. Rooker is in the picture along with Trevor Larnach, who dazzled in spring training after winning Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2019. Even after signing Cruz, though, the Twins could run a platoon corner outfield with Rooker and Max Kepler, who looked inept against left-handed pitching in 2020. Larnach’s spot is much murkier in that scenario.


5. How will they fill out the bullpen?


The Twins may lose two key members from their bullpen in Trevor May and Tyler Clippard. Rogers, Duffey, Wisler, Cody Stashak, and Jorge Alcalá will seemingly fill five of eight spots. The Twins could use more high-leverage arms, especially after Rogers continually didn’t get the job done in 2020.


They could bring back May, who finished the season on an incredibly high note. He struck out 12 over 7 ⅔ scoreless innings before two perfect innings in the playoffs. His secondary stuff and command isn’t always sharp but the upper-90s fastball is extremely effective. He has high-leverage stuff.


Clippard was everything the Twins had hoped he would be. A solid, consistent middle-to-high leverage reliever who shuts down lefties. Left-handed hitters had just a .479 OPS against Clippard, a guy who has spent 14 years in the majors and has never gone on the injured list. He could be back, too.


Free agent targets include one of the best relievers in baseball in Liam Hendriks, who could re-join Minnesota as a new animal. The Twins could also pick up the $5 million option on Sergio Romo, or buy him out for $250K.


What do you want to see the Twins do this offseason? Comment below!



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I am reluctant to see Cruz continuing his production and hope they do not over spend based on last year and most of this year.  I would like to see Larnach and Kiriloff surrounding Buxton and Rooker alternating at 1B and DH.  I would like Lewis and Blankenhorn on the team and Duran in the rotation.  Yes I like bringing in the young guys like many of the teams still in the playoffs have done. 

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I think Rosie is either tendered and later traded or is non tendered. Either Rosie or Cave/Rooker platoon will hold down LF until Alex is used to playing exclusively LF in AAA for a couple of months. 

For utility it will probably be either Gordon or an outside FA. I'm done with Marwin and Ehire.


I want them to sign 2 starting pitchers and have Dobnak as the 6th starter in Rochester in case of injury. Odo and Hill are fine to bring back on 1 year deals. If Bauer truly wants a 1 year deal he would be my top FA target besides Cruz.


Don't forget Thielbar for the 6th spot in our 8 man BP!


I think May will sign a multiyear deal elsewhere for as much money as he can get. Biggest FA contract to a reliever they gave was 2 years to Addison Reed and with the question marks on revenue for next year I doubt they will meet May's asking price. 


Hopefully they can bring back Clippard. Romo's option should be declined but they can try to bring him back for less if he's interested. Otherwise they have 2 spots to fill for either Clippard/Romo, different FAs, or internally with Chalmers/Colina.



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I expect they will part from Romo.  I would like May, but he might be too expensive.  Unfortunately Relievers are a year to year proposition, unless you are in the very top tier.  Hendricks will probably cost more than May, Alcaca may also be a low leverage long man option to start.  I would use him in 2 inning groups.  Hill I would see what it would take, He still gets the job done.  Ozzo only on a team friendly deal, he probably can get more elsewhere.  

Rosario will probably only bring B type prospects or I hope maybe a decent reliever.  Problem is a lot of clubs that need outfielders don't want to pay that much, so Twins to get a decent prospect out of them would probably have to kick in 5+million. 

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The top priority is to bring up Royce Lewis as a quality utility. Lewis is athletic could play SS, CF, 2B & even 3B well if needed this is IMO our greatest need, (I quince when they put Kepler in CF because he`s a much better overall player if kept at RF) . His hitting is coming around & the scouting report states his best trait is baseball maturity. I expect for him to tear up the Arizona League again.

We have a lot of options in LF. But IMO Rooker is a necessity to at least platoon there.

Hope they expand the Arizona League this year so we can better see our minor leaguers   & give them an opportunity to compete

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It's time to thank Romo for his service and wish him the best of luck in his future endeavors elsewhere. I think May will finally reach his full potential next year so we should see to it that he stays.

The outfield roster needs to change. The ideal situation is to have four good players, at least two of whom can play center field, with two batting from each side. With all the left-handed outfield bats on our current roster it seems to me that a trade or two would be indicated.

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A time for self analysis and reflection for ALL the teams in BOTH the AL & NL Central as all these teams have quickly exited the playoffs for the offseason....Only the Cards and Sox won a game and avoided being swept. A weak combined 2-16??!! Good math problem for the kids at home during Covid. Maybe these teams can gather together collectively and swap players amongst themselves - They've got the time on their hands......

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Eddie is a very low probability. Rooker / Cave platoon until Kirilloff or Larnach push their way on to the roster.  Hopefully, Rooker makes that very difficult. Perhaps they trade Cave at that point.


Time to let go Gonzalez and Adrianza.  They should be able to find a FA utility player and perhaps give Blankenhorn a shot.


Resign May. If we don't tender a contract to Rosario, we have $70M coming off the books not counting May.  We can afford to keep him. 


Make a hard run at Bauer. The $70M will be offset by increases of roughly $15M between Sanos increase and arbitration raises. I also assume almost ever team will cut payroll this year because of Covid related loses.  However, the Twins could probably still afford Bauer

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I'd like to bring May back, but someone might offer him too much (either year, money or both). But I like him as a power arm, so they should make the effort and if they can get him on a deal of 3 years they should try and make the dollars work. You let Romo go. He's a great guy and everything, but it's time to move on. Clippard would be nice to bring back, but I don't think you make a multi-year on him. They need a reliable second lefty arm, but for most of the slots they can look to fill internally. Alcala looks ready to be a serious factor in the back end.


Cruz: yes, if he'll do another 1+1 kind of deal and the money doesn't surge too high. But if he's getting offers over $15M and for 2-3 years guaranteed...then you probably have to move on. They do have hitters ready to step up and having the DH slot available to move guys into from the field wouldn't be bad either to get Rooker/Larnach/Kirilloff regular time either.


Rotation is an interesting one; the good thing is the top three slots are locked in nicely, which hasn't always been the case. I think Dobnak fits fine as a 4th/5th option and you can let other guys in the system compete with him. They will need to either bring in one guy or look to re-sign Odorizzi. It will be really interesting to see what his market looks like; he might be willing to do a 1 year back with a team that he likes and has had success with in order to get huis value back up after an injury riddled year. I don't think he's getting the 4-5 deal he was hoping for; at this point I dunno if anyone will give him more than 3 and the money might not be anywhere what he thinks he's worth. I'd give him a hard look and if you can't make the money/years work you look for another option on the FA market. I don't think Hill should be an option; he's pretty much cooked as a starter.


Utility...I like the idea of Blankenhorn getting a shot at Gonzalez's old role. The bigger issue is finding a backup at SS that can really pick it. Maybe that's Adrianza, but if he's not gonna hit at all, maybe you look for a better all-glove option? Nick Gordon can backup 2B nicely, might be stretched at SS.


LF isn't too complicated: Rosario gets non-tendered ($10M is going to more more than the team is willing to pay for a poor overall defender who is a good but not great hitter) and Kirilloff gets his shot to take the job. Cave/Wade is a fine option to have as insurance, and Larnach is probably ready to push for it. I like Eddie, but moving on to Kirilloff is something I'm ready to do...and I think the Twins are too.


I think a real question is catcher: Jeffers looks ready, we don't know if Garver will bounce back...and we don't know if the two of them will work splitting time, either. Is La Tortuga an option to spend some time there? Do they need a platoon split guy like Avila again?

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I agree with Linus' sentiment about OBP, but it seems like there were baserunners at times but then the inability to do anything. We need some hitters who are able to adjust and drive the ball to the opposite field. I won't say Tom Kelly was right the bomba ability looming for any mistake pitch is important but to me the team was impotent when the bombas didn't happen.

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They somehow need to change the composition of the lineup to inject some OBP. And if Rocco is going to keep hooking starters after 5 innings they better upgrade the bullpen.


Great point about OBP.  Dropped from .338 in 2019 to .315 in 2020. Just too many players with a lot of AB with poor OBP - Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Gonzalez, Garver, Polanco, Cave...

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1.  Eddie won't be back.  It will be addition by subtraction.  I would hope they could get something for him in a trade, but if not, let him go and make way for Kiriloff/Rooker.  10+ million saved.

2.  Utility---Royce Lewis.  it's time.  He's also the RH bat 4th OF'er type that the team needs.  He could play SS, CF, 3B and 2B.  I like Travis Blankenhorn as well.  These guys replace Marwan and Adrianza.  However, I also like the idea of looking into a guy like Jose Iglesias.  Good glove at SS (massive defensive upgrade from Polanco) and his bat has improved the last 2-years.  I've said this in another post, but if Boston is really considering moving Bogaerts make a deal.  Sano and Polanco for Bogaerts ??  Sano's bat in Fenway has to be tempting for the Red Sox, especially after they move on from JD Martinez.  Polanco slots in at SS or 2B for Boston.  Bogaerts would cost move than Sano and Rosario combined but if you're looking to bring up a LOT of our young talent we could afford it.  Who wouldn't want Bogaerts instead of Polanco ??? 


3.  Rotation:  Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, (Hill or Dobnak).  Not a bad start.  How would Trevor Bauer or James Paxton look in this rotation ?  If we swung a deal for Bogaerts maybe this wouldn't be possible.  But...maybe not.  If we go out and get a Bauer or Paxton, somebody PLEASE tell Rocco not to take either out of the game after 5 innings, 80 pitches, zero or one run allowed and 8 or 9 K's !!!


4.  Cruz.  Any cost for Nellie is short term.  You gotta have him back.  He's our only truly professional hitter.  He will need more frequent rest, but you have a wealth of young hitters who could get added AB's by rotating them through the DH.  


5.  Bullpen:  Duffey, Rogers, Wisler, Theilbar, Stashek, Wisler, Alcala.  That's 7 out of 8 guys.  Bullpens are notoriously inconsistent year to year but 7 out of 8 spots look good "today.'  I like May's power arm but he's getting more somewhere else and frankly, I'm tired of the frustration.  Romo and Clippard are guys who get by on guile, I'd rather take a chance on a power arm like Colina or Chalmers.  But I'd also look at a RH guy that can close---Liam Hendricks??  I want someone I can count on in the 9th inning for 2021.  Taylor Rogers needs to prove it to me all year in 2021.  Hendricks closing and Rogers in the 7th or 8th is something I like.    

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Whoops !  Listed Wisler twice in the bullpen.  (Darn Math  !!).  Doesn't change my overall outlook for the bullpen.  Keep stacking up power arms that are young (ala the Royals in their back to back World series years).  We've got talented young arms to unleash.  Do it.  

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I would like to see the Twins let Odorizzi, Marwin, Romo and Rosie go this offseason. The money saved from Odo, Marwin and Romo ($33.3M prior to the COVID proration) could give the Twins the ability to sign Trevor Bauer. While there are more obvious needs for the roster, Bauer gives the Twins an elite rotation.


I have nothing to add about Rosie that hasn't already been said above. I would be willing to take Adrianza back on a similar deal to this year; his contract is essentially a rounding error in the books and he can take over Marwin's job.


I would like to bring May back, but it is quite possible he will be given close to the dollar amount it would take to sign Cruz, and I don't see the Twins signing both guys. I think Cruz is the more important guy to bring back.


Time to start giving the young guys in the minors a chance. Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, maybe even Lewis. Fill in the back end of the bullpen with the power arms in the minors as well. 

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The Twins are sitting pretty good money-wise.


They can trade Rosario and a prospect or two and maybe get another Maeda-type starting pitcher. Or they can still trade Rosario for prospects and pay out some lump sum for a HIGH-QUALITY arm.


Like Delmon Young of old, looks like Rosario is the first to go as replacements are in the wings. Even if Kirilloff isn't ready, we can hope Rooker is healed. And the Twins still have Cave.


No minor leagues meant we didn't get to hear much about players like Sam Clay, Dakota Chalmers. We still have Caleb Thielbar and Zach Littell and Danny Coulombe. But ROMO is not the closer of our future and Rogers may be best as a set-up guy who can also close. I would spend money on a REAL closer.


Otherwise catching depth (mainly AAA-type) and backup for the infield. We shouldn't write-off Nick Gordon. What happened to him in 2020 hasn't been explained. That is TWO seasons he has missed an opportunity for major league play.


And speaking of missed: Fernando Romero?




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Unfortunately hitting was the teams demise this year. Who would have thought!

I'm ready to move on from the Bomba Squad in favor of some hitters that can hit line drive singles and doubles. Maybe even bunt for a hit on occasion. The lineup has become too one dimensional with what looks like everyone, with the exception of Arraez, swinging for the fences. I'm tired of Sano looking like a lost puppy at the plate, Buxton being a porcelain doll, Rosario swinging at anything, throwing to the wrong base and running with wreckless abandon on the bases. Can anyone hit a linedrive to the opposite field anymore? Maybe bunt down the line for a base hit when the shift is on? Sometimes you have to MAKE the other team react to you, instead of playing into their hands. (Poor Managing)!

I really don't care how they do it but I want a whole new outfield, shortstop and 1st baseman. I'm willing to let Arraez, Donaldson, and a platoon of Garver/Jeffers hold down 2B, 3B, and C, and Cruz DH for another year, of course! We can do better at the other positions. Want to keep Polanco, fine but he plays behind a new shortstop and Arraez as a utility guy up the middle. Give the outfield to Kirilloff, Larnach and a new centerfielder, aka FA or trade. Give Lewis the utility role Marwin had. He can't hit any worse and I'll bet he can play all of the same positions just as well for a whole lot less money. So, you trade Sano, Buxton, Kepler. Let Rosario, Cave, Adrianza, Avila walk. Bench spots go to Lewis as your main utility guy, add Blankenhorn, Rooker and Wade Jr. 

Pitching was the bright spot this year. Too bad this team can't get both sides of the team to work together in the same year. 

I'd bring back the big 3, Maeda, Berrios and Pineda. Give Odorizzi a chance at a 1 year deal. Look at bringing in another FA or promoting Duran or Balazovic. I've seen enough of Dobnak and Hill isn't going to be good enough much longer.

The bullpen is a bigger problem. They definitely need to say bye bye to Romo. I'd like to see Clippard, Rogers, Wisler come back. Not sure about Duffey. He can be lights out but when they really need him to be a shutdown guy, (like in the playoffs) he lays an egg. I'm not sold on Stashak, Thorpe or anyone else they've tried. 

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I agree with the poster above on Baldelli’s pitching staff management. If he’s going to continue to inexplicably pull effective starting pitchers after 75 pitches, you need a better bullpen. Rogers has been awful for over a year now. Romo needs to go unless he’ll accept a low leverage role. May will likely be gone. You need someone other than Duffey that you can count on to get big outs.


I don’t think this conversation really means a whole lot at this point. It’s clear this team doesn’t have the horses for a playoff run. Not even close, despite the BS Baldelli is trying to inject. Nobody can stay healthy. Nobody has the fortitude to collect a clutch hit in a big game. I don’t fault them for going after Donaldson, but that contract is now an albatross. We basically just offered two years of on the job training to Baldelli while we burned an elite roster.


We hired not 1, but 2, baseball “geniuses” for the front office. Why are they considered that, exactly? Where’s the difference vs. Terry Ryan? They’re just starting to sound like a magic 8-ball of trendy analytical/corporate cliches at this point. Slightly different path. Exact same result.


What do I want? Stop half-assing things. If you’re saying you’re going all-in, go all-in. If you are even considering a half-step back payroll-wise, blow it up. Trade anything of value and play Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. The last thing I want is a repeat of the 00s, which I fear is the inevitable result here. They’ll never spend enough to get over the top. They’ll never blow it up and suffer through empty ballparks for three years.


If you haven’t gathered, I’m sort of unhappy with this club right now. I’m at the point where I’m ready to bring in a real, hard-ass baseball manager who isn’t afraid to tell his players the truth. I’m very close to calling for the FO to ditch this New-Age feelings experiment with Baldelli. Everyone loves to make excuses for him (yes it’s his fault if the lineup doesn’t produce....find a combination that can), but I put the playoff failure of the last two years squarely on him. They may be the worst managed playoff series I’ve ever seen.

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I agree with you on the above post Darius. Baldelli isn't all that he has been bragged up to be. His constant influx of scrub players to give the main guys rest is BS, pure, plain and simple. Maybe these so-called super athletes should try working a 10 or 12 hour shift at a blue-collar job to find out what it's really like to put in a full day of work. Half the time these guys are sitting in the dugout waiting for their turn to bat and the other 45% of the time their standing around on the field. Outside of the pitcher or catcher, in a 3-4 hour game they're actually doing something for maybe 15 or 20 minutes. I'm tired of hearing how they need rest. They have off days for that. Play your best players every day and use them to their fullest. 

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I think they will need to cut payroll.


Rosario doesn’t have value beyond his contract. He hasn’t had that excess value. Why trade when similar players will be free agents and likely less expensive?


I am not sure about Rogers either. I think many teams will be cutting payroll. It might be better to add that money to any spent on starting pitching.


Jeffers, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis and maybe even Gordon will all be needed to step up. I think they can also find an inexpensive utility player in free agency. The same goes for the young arms in the pen.

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And if Rocco is going to keep hooking starters after 5 innings they better upgrade the bullpen.



I agree with the poster above on Baldelli’s pitching staff management. If he’s going to continue to inexplicably pull effective starting pitchers after 75 pitches, you need a better bullpen.

I don't think this strategy is inexplicable or even bad. The explanation is that starting pitchers have a high likelihood of doing much less well the third time through the lineup. It seems pretty obvious to me that this should be expected. Opposing batters have had two plate appearances to see what the pitcher has got and the pitcher is starting to fatigue and thereby become less capable of further adjustments needed to get batters out. There are certainly exceptions, but those pitchers are not common. (I think Maeda is one because he is able to add to and subtract from almost every pitch in his repertoire.)

In terms of roster construction this makes the bullpen more important, especially middle relief, but to me the most important thing is to have a reliable, consistent closer. Having such a closer makes the rest of the bullpen much easier to construct and manage. 

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Rosario is gone.  Romo is gone.  I think it's time to start opening up at bats, innings and playing time for some of the top young prospects.  

Maybe Miami and James Rowson would give the Twins something for Sano.  Rowson is the only person on the planet who seemed to be able to get Sano to be anything close to consistent.

Would love to see Rooker and Kiriloff be given a chance coming out of ST next year.

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"I don’t think this conversation really means a whole lot at this point. It’s clear this team doesn’t have the horses for a playoff run. Not even close, despite the BS Baldelli is trying to inject. Nobody can stay healthy. Nobody has the fortitude to collect a clutch hit in a big game."


"We basically just offered two years of on the job training to Baldelli while we burned an elite roster."


Sorry Darius but which is it? We don't have the horses or we have/had an elite roster? If you ask me it's somewhere in the middle. On the elite side of middle. I say reload. I know one thing for sure I don't want 5 out of 6 years of 100 loses. That sucked hard. The last 2 years had 162/60 games of fun fandom and 3/2 games of dejection. I will take that over 100 L's every time. With a couple of moves, fewer than last year, they can be right back in it. Sprinkle in some young guys and who knows that spark might just appear like we have seen before. I'm interested in watching that movie.

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I dont think there's ever been a more uncertain off-season for the Twins.


What will payroll look like? I bet even ownership has no clue. How could they? What will attendance be? Zero? 25% 50? Who knows?


However, there are some near certainties, IMO.


Rosario, Romo, Gonzalez, Hill, and Odorizzi won't be in Twins uniforms in 2021.


Unlikely to return: Cruz, May.

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