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Bring Up Young Pitchers/make the necessary roster moves..


Crackedfungo
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Instead of the bullpen games, I would like to see them bring up Jhoan Duran for a start.  There is nothing to lose, as our pitching lately (outside of Maeda) has been very suspect.  Although Pineda is on his way, I am not sure that we would not benefit from another arm.  I would like to see Colina and Chalmers, as well.  I have seen enough of Thorpe, and am not thrilled with how several of our relievers are pitching this year.  Why we marched out Romo last week in multiple games - I will never know.  He is not that effective when he logs a lot of appearances and can be timed up by lineups - I do NOT trust him in a big playoff game versus Yankees.  Time to see what else we have...like Graterol last year.  

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Instead of the bullpen games, I would like to see them bring up Jhoan Duran for a start.  There is nothing to lose, as our pitching lately (outside of Maeda) has been very suspect.  Although Pineda is on his way, I am not sure that we would not benefit from another arm.  I would like to see Colina and Chalmers, as well.  I have seen enough of Thorpe, and am not thrilled with how several of our relievers are pitching this year.  Why we marched out Romo last week in multiple games - I will never know.  He is not that effective when he logs a lot of appearances and can be timed up by lineups - I do NOT trust him in a big playoff game versus Yankees.  Time to see what else we have...like Graterol last year.  

 

The only quote I've seen on Duran is this from Falvey:

“Jhoan Duran has thrown the ball well for a good portion of camp. We’ve been really careful with him just to make sure, for all the pitchers, and for a lot of reasons as we look at challenges for pitchers with the second restart across the game, making sure that we’re being particularly careful"

 

His wording is interesting for sure. Balazovic not being at camp is also notable. I've having trouble finding examples of players in his situation not being invited to camp and I can't find any. 

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The only quote I've seen on Duran is this from Falvey:

“Jhoan Duran has thrown the ball well for a good portion of camp. We’ve been really careful with him just to make sure, for all the pitchers, and for a lot of reasons as we look at challenges for pitchers with the second restart across the game, making sure that we’re being particularly careful"

 

His wording is interesting for sure. Balazovic not being at camp is also notable. I've having trouble finding examples of players in his situation not being invited to camp and I can't find any.

Keep in mind, Balazovic hasn’t even reached AA yet. There was almost no way for him to transition to MLB this short season, with no minor leagues to play in. And he’s not even on the 40-man roster, so it would have cost a spot and possibly burned an option to even look at him in a real game situation.

 

Duran is a bit closer — he is on the 40-man, using an option year, but he didn’t reach AAA last year, and had just 7 starts at AA with a 4.86 ERA (although good peripherals). I maybe would have given him a start, since he’s burning an option anyway, but I wouldn’t have expected much at this point — so with expanded rosters, I think it was defensible to lean on the pen a bit until Pineda comes back Sep. 1 instead.

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I think the Twins deserve some benefit of the doubt here. They’ve been aggressive with Graterol, Alcala, and Dobnak. It’s not their fault that Duran and Balazovic were further behind that group at the end of 2019, and were left with little or no opportunity to develop into MLB readiness in 2020.

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I will be blunt.  I would rather see Duran than a bullpen game - which seems to screw up the RPs respective future appearances by them from my 30k foot perspective.  I just think the whole 'bullpen game' experiment needs to end.  IT is not developmental in nature, has a low probability of sustained success, and seems to disrupt our bullpen for games thereafter.  Additionally, I would rather see what we have with Duran (even in relief), Colina, Chalmers, etc., than see the parade of Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, and Sergio Romo, coupled with the scrap heap pick-ups like Thielbar, Coloumbe, and Gearrin.   

 

I would also like to see Kiriloff, Rooker, or Larnach up for a game, than see an OF that includes any 2/3 combination of Wade/Cave or Wade/Cave/Gonzalez.  For me, this is just akin to ole Gardy's Sunday 'give up' line-ups.  I get service time, but the Twins need to see what they have soon, before they make mistakes in assumptions on all their players (and who to protect), when they have a great opportunity to take a look this year, in spite of burning some service time. 

 

Lastly, we need a spark.  We are losing....

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Keep in mind, Balazovic hasn’t even reached AA yet. There was almost no way for him to transition to MLB this short season, with no minor leagues to play in. And he’s not even on the 40-man roster, so it would have cost a spot and possibly burned an option to even look at him in a real game situation.
 

 

Balazovic did actually pitch in AA, albeit briefly. It's very odd that he isn't in camp. I can't find any other healthy top 150 prospects who have pitched in the high minors not being in at least the 2nd group. 

 

It's not entirely clear as to why Duran is being treated with kid gloves. He's pitched nearly 400 minor league innings(not including St. Paul camp 2020) and has reached 100IP inboth  the past 2 seasons. He'll be 23 before spring training next season so it's not like he's a young prospect by any stretch of the imagination. 

 

 

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Balazovic did actually pitch in AA, albeit briefly. It's very odd that he isn't in camp. I can't find any other healthy top 150 prospects who have pitched in the high minors not being in at least the 2nd group.

 

It's not entirely clear as to why Duran is being treated with kid gloves. He's pitched nearly 400 minor league innings(not including St. Paul camp 2020) and has reached 100IP inboth the past 2 seasons. He'll be 23 before spring training next season so it's not like he's a young prospect by any stretch of the imagination.

I guess we’re both right on Balazovic — he technically did reach AA last year, but just for a single postseason game.

 

I don’t think the Duran thing is “kid gloves” related to age or innings. It’s just he ended 2019 in a spot that wouldn’t normally warrant jumping immediately into a MLB rotation, and due to 2020 weirdness, he hasn’t had a chance to develop any further this year. He would be more likely to find success in the MLB pen this year, but we have less need there and maybe they don’t want him moving away from a starting regimen at this point in his career.

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I guess we’re both right on Balazovic — he technically did reach AA last year, but just for a single postseason game.

I don’t think the Duran thing is “kid gloves” related to age or innings. It’s just he ended 2019 in a spot that wouldn’t normally warrant jumping immediately into a MLB rotation, and due to 2020 weirdness, he hasn’t had a chance to develop any further this year. He would be more likely to find success in the MLB pen this year, but we have less need there and maybe they don’t want him moving away from a starting regimen at this point in his career.

 

Oh I think that's a part of their thought process. I'm sure they have their reasons. I'm just trying to reverse engineer what those reason are for Duran, because it's certainly not his age, service time, or lack of innings pitched. I suspect it's performance related. 

 

Balazovic's situation is harder to understand. No other teams are taking this approach with top 100 prospects who are allegedly slotted to debut next season.

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Oh I think that's a part of their thought process. I'm sure they have their reasons. I'm just trying to reverse engineer what those reason are for Duran, because it's certainly not his age, service time, or lack of innings pitched. I suspect it's performance related.

 

Balazovic's situation is harder to understand. No other teams are taking this approach with top 100 prospects.

I have to admit, I hadn’t studied how comparable prospects are being placed in 60-man pools — that does sound interesting, thanks for sharing.

 

Maybe the Twins were just over-confident about their starting depth? Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey, Hill, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Pineda soon — in a 60-game season, maybe they figured they wouldn’t need additional SP and didn’t want to put Duran or Balazovic in relief yet.

 

Of course, with SP injuries and doubleheaders, there have been plenty of opportunities to reassess and give Duran a start and put Balazovic in the 60-man pool.

 

Hopefully all is well with Balazovic and his family in regards to COVID-19. If he still lives in Canada, that would make it especially tricky — he wouldn’t necessarily be able to travel home freely if the need arose.

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I very much doubt that the Twins will call up rookies now to try to jump start their offense or supplement their pitching staff. I really don't think they should either. 

 

This was a club designed to win now. They have two guys over 40 and several in their thirties. They were very successful last year and on paper figured to be again this year. So far, a lot of key performers have not performed well and they've been slowed by a lot of what appear to be nagging injuries. 

 

They have been ultra-cautious with starting pitchers and also with two key position players--Donaldson and Buxton--I do think they need to get the pitchers going and position players in the lineup.

 

While the last bullpen game was a loss, it really didn't put a strain on the bullpen. The team lost because two of their most trusted BP arms, Duffey and May, each gave up a two-run homer. They had plenty of people available to pitch on Sunday and only needed two hurlers in that game. Pineda will be back this week and Odorizzi should follow him shortly. It is the veterans who will determine whether this team makes the playoffs and how far they go.

 

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It seems Twins were swept by Gardenhire's Tigers due to offense disappearing, not just pitching. Many times the two go hand in hand. Now they play the first place, yes first place White Sox and are out of the playoff picture as of today. Yankees may not be a problem after all.

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Oh I think that's a part of their thought process. I'm sure they have their reasons. I'm just trying to reverse engineer what those reason are for Duran, because it's certainly not his age, service time, or lack of innings pitched. I suspect it's performance related. 

 

Balazovic's situation is harder to understand. No other teams are taking this approach with top 100 prospects who are allegedly slotted to debut next season.

Phillies, Yankees, and Reds also have players in a top 100 not in a camp

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It seems Twins were swept by Gardenhire's Tigers due to offense disappearing, not just pitching. Many times the two go hand in hand. Now they play the first place, yes first place White Sox and are out of the playoff picture as of today. Yankees may not be a problem after all.

Top 2 teams in each division and the 7/8 by w/l record. As of today how are the Twins out of the playoff picture other than the fact that their play has been bad  for a couple of weeks? By current record they are not. Of course at one point recently they were the best team in the AL by record. To get to the Ranger/Angel level of futility would take a few more trips to the IL

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It is hard for us to evaluate the players at alternative site, when playing games in minors at least have stats to look at. We have to trust FO they are getting the information from alternative site they need to make those decisions. Maybe they just are not ready. I just hope they are not bringing prospects up because they don't want to start the prospects service time clock. Twins are in position to win this year, need their best players playing. Will be September, most prospects would get a look in September in normal years.

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Phillies, Yankees, and Reds also have players in a top 100 not in a camp

Are those players expected to debut in MLB next season?

 

Looking at the Fangraphs and MLB.com top 100 prospect lists, the only Phillies and Reds to not be in their 60-player pools are each team's respective top 2020 draftees.

 

4 out of 6 Yankees from those two prospect lists are not in their 60 player pool, but none of those 4 have even played in a full-season minor league yet (and all 4 are position players).

 

* Note that if you are looking at the initial 60-man lists from late June, some guys were added to the list later, like the Reds' Hunter Greene.

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and are out of the playoff picture as of today.

There are more playoff teams this year than you may realize.

 

At the moment, they are still among the top 8 in the AL. They would have to fall behind #9 Detroit, and also be passed by #8 Toronto, in the present picture, to actually miss the playoffs outright.

 

At 2.5 games ahead of that pace, they still are favorites - especially because Baltimore at #10 is even less likely to catch up. Still, the fact I needed to do this math is a bad sign, one that would not have been imaginable two weeks ago.

 

And limping into the playoffs is not a good omen for a long postseason run.

 

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Phillies, Yankees, and Reds also have players in a top 100 not in a camp

 

According to Fangraphs Deivi Garcia is the only Yankees pitcher in the top 100. He's 20 years old and just debuted in the majors.

 

Philadelphia's only top 100 pitcher, Spencer Howard, has already pitched in the majors as well.

 

Cincinatti has two top 100 pitchers. Both in camp. including Hunter Greene who has virtually no Minor League experience.

 

I don't think 2020 draftees are fair comps for JD or JB so they shouldn't be included.

 

Looks like Spycake beat me to the punch

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The opener/bullpen game works if you have the luxury, as the Twins do, to comeback with a pitcher or two who can throw three or four innings. (Actually, I would use the opener in the case of Hill and especially Odorizzi for the remainder of the season). You are carrying an abundance of pitchers. But, yes, with the double-header allowing you to spotlight a 40-man guy - let us see Chalmers and Duran if at all possible. At worst, they face only three batters. At best, they shine beyond expectations, and will cause hard decisions to be made on pitchers like Poppen and Smeltzer.

 

So, what are the chances the Twins let Trevor May walk?

 

Anyone believe Fernando Romero still has a future with the Twins?

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Instead of the bullpen games, I would like to see them bring up Jhoan Duran for a start.  There is nothing to lose, as our pitching lately (outside of Maeda) has been very suspect. 

 

"There is nothing to lose"... except for baseball games. They're winning when they play bullpen games. That's what matters.

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"There is nothing to lose"... except for baseball games. They're winning when they play bullpen games. That's what matters.

 

And overall have the 5th best ERA in MLB, 3rd best FIP, 9th best K/9. Pitching is not the issue this year by miles. Starting a minor league prospect and having them get bombed would be so much worse than just bullpen games, especially in the shortened season where innings will be down for all relievers.

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They are 5-3 in bullpen games, maybe better than any other options available at this time. But bullpen overuse may catch up to them when it matters.

Bremer said that Dobnak will start one of the games in St. Louis, so not a true BP game, although I doubt they will push Dobnak too much. Berríos might go 6 or 7, so they should have a full bullpen to back up Dobnak.

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The opener/bullpen game works if you have the luxury, as the Twins do, to comeback with a pitcher or two who can throw three or four innings. (Actually, I would use the opener in the case of Hill and especially Odorizzi for the remainder of the season). You are carrying an abundance of pitchers. But, yes, with the double-header allowing you to spotlight a 40-man guy - let us see Chalmers and Duran if at all possible. At worst, they face only three batters. At best, they shine beyond expectations, and will cause hard decisions to be made on pitchers like Poppen and Smeltzer.

 

So, what are the chances the Twins let Trevor May walk?

 

Anyone believe Fernando Romero still has a future with the Twins?

Pitchers like Poppen and Smeltzer are not special. There are plenty of them out there. They will not cause hard decisions to be made.

I don't think the Twins will let May walk. May has really good stuff. He should be able to bounce back.

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Continued use of Bullpen Games is over taxing the Pen and causing the recent melt downs. It may not happen in the pen game, but it happens protecting other games instead of "deGrom-ing" the starter.

 

Continued use of Bullpen Games is the ticket to an early exit in the postseason.

This doesn't really appear to be true, though. The Twins have played 43 games. Their reliever with most IP is Wisler, who probably won't be a huge factor in the postseason but may get innings. He has 18.2 IP. Taylor Rogers is at the bottom of the "important relievers" list with 13.1 IP.

 

In a 162 game season, Wisler is on track for 70 IP. A touch on the high side but well within reason. Rogers is on track for just 50 IP. Everyone else is in between.

 

The reality of the situation is that the expanded rosters and the Twins' bullpen depth have allowed Baldelli to trot out reliever after reliever but stagger them enough that they're all on track for pretty typical workloads, except they don't even have to manage that workload for six months, they just need to do it for two.

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