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You're Going To Love Watching Baseball This Year


It is natural to focus on dates and locations, but those were not the important part of last week’s ESPN report that MLB and MLBPA had met with CDC, HHS and other health care officials to discuss a path for MLB games' restart. The important part is that if those three stakeholders – MLB, MLBPA, and federal health officials - see a path, then who is going to stop the return of baseball?This is not a negotiation between the MLB and MLBPA. They’re mostly aligned over trying to find their path to an enormous pot of money. Both will need to give up something dear to them. The owners will need to give up stadium revenues, because these games can’t be played in front of crowds. The players are going to need to give up their freedom, essentially being quarantined with their teammates and support staff for the duration of whatever constitutes spring training, the regular season and the postseason.

 

That’s an enormous ask, but the quarantine is to protect the players. The owners have no dog in that fight; they’re not the ones who are going to get sick. That concern is between health officials and the union, or maybe more accurately is an MLBPA internal matter between players who want a paycheck and those willing to walk away for a year.

 

Grandiose anti-plan media quotes don’t mean much in that context. One would get the same quotes if players were asked the flip side of the question: “So how do you feel about not getting paid?” Considering the minimum wage for a ballplayer is close to $3500 per game – and it obviously can be 50 times that for premier players – there is going to be a fair amount of appetite in accepting some separation from families. Plus, if that price is too high for some players to pay, there will undoubtedly be a provision for players to opt out.

 

We don’t know where the season is going to take place yet, but we know the more important part – it’s going to be localized so travel is minimized. That’s likely why Phoenix was the initial suggestion – all those spring training complexes are in one metro area. Everybody can sleep in their own heavily-controlled room each night.

 

Expanding half of the league to play in Florida is trickier. Florida’s Grapefruit League is more spread out. If the Fort-Myers-based Twins travel to the Clearwater-based Phillies (a three-hour drive) for a three-game set, the option is to travel six hours each day or find a quarantine-level secure place to stay in Clearwater. With the CDC concerned about the virus spreading from county to county, that may be too much for them to approve.

 

If that problem seems to be too much to overcome, well, you ain’t seen nothing yet. There are 20 problems like that. For instance, there is the support staff for the players: from coaches and trainers to bus drivers and cleaning staff. Won’t they need to be quarantined, too?

 

To handle all of those challenges and logistics requires a lot of resources– but there MLB and the MLBPA are in luck. Ten billion dollars are at stake, and roughly half of that goes to each side. The human mind has trouble imagining how much money that is, so engage in this quick mind exercise:

  • Imagine you’re standing at one end of a football field. And along the sideline of that field is a bucket at every yard marker. 100 buckets.
  • Now turn 90 degrees sideways, and there is another football field. Along its sideline are another 100 buckets.
  • Now, extend those yardlines from both fields so they form a grid and put a bucket wherever they meet, so you have 100 buckets by 100 buckets or 10,000 buckets.
  • Now look into one of those buckets. There is a million dollars. And that is the case for all 10,000 of those buckets. That’s $10 billion.
Need to pay $40,000 apiece to a hundred quarantined support people for each team for those four months? That’s 120 buckets gone. Still leaves 9880 buckets. Need to buy 100,000 coronavirus tests for $200 apiece? That’s twenty more buckets. Still have 9860 left.

 

Sure, there is a point where those buckets run out, but – well, that’s a lot of buckets. Plus, there is another reason to start spending those buckets to restart the season: for each game that is cancelled, for every day that passes that cannot be made up, sixty of those buckets disappear anyway.

 

That’s why both sides are looking at just how soon games can start, but now we get to the areas where the team has limited control or options. The one mentioned in the original story was how quickly fast-result coronavirus tests will be so ubiquitous that there can be enough for thousands of MLB participants to take them a daily basis. For issues like this, MLB must work on what they can control and trust that American (or world) industry, or health officials’ increasing understanding of the virus, will get over existing barriers. MLB and the players can influence the timeline, but not control it.

 

But does it matter to fans whether the games start on June 1st, July 1st or August 1st? Sooner would be better than later, but having a season is the important part. While it would be nice if it was 162 games and in front of crowds and played in traditional divisions and included 100% of the players – we’ll work with what we have. Baseball was played during World War II. The St. Louis Cardinals still celebrate that 1942 World Championship.

 

A 2020 season is not inevitable, but it’s on the right path. Stakeholders are aligned, budgets determined, logistics worked, and contingencies planned. The obstacles are many, but the resources are plentiful and motivations are clear. Announcing a date and a place are not the first step; they’re the last step in the process.

 

And yeah, I’m really encouraged by it, which calls into question my objectivity. So subjectively I’ll say: you’re going to get to watch baseball this year. And you’re going to love it, all the more because of what was done to get there.

 

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While I enjoy the positive spin, I have to wonder on the moral question of should society provide daily testing so these guys can play a game? If one sick person cannot get tested because we are trying to get MLB playing then it's wrong. I hope they play as much as anybody. I just can't justify redirecting needed resources.

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I will watch. Holding my nose...if you will.

 

If these spoiled over-paid brats [that I love to watch] go back to work ONLY because they have powerful entities supporting them [TV, MLBPA, etc...], and millions of non-essential scum can not work because of the lack of that kind of support. It is not only immoral......but bad PR for baseball. How about the essential workers that don't have sufficient PPEs??

 

Play ball and give it all to charity. Or sit down and spend your millions you already have in the bank. Just my advice....

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I will watch. Holding my nose...if you will.

 

If these spoiled over-paid brats [that I love to watch] go back to work ONLY because they have powerful entities supporting them [TV, MLBPA, etc...], and millions of non-essential scum can not work because of the lack of that kind of support. It is not only immoral......but bad PR for baseball. How about the essential workers that don't have sufficient PPEs??

 

Play ball and give it all to charity. Or sit down and spend your millions you already have in the bank. Just my advice....

There are a couple of things wrong with this line of thinking. A. not every MLB player is paid millions, in fact there are a ton of players who make very modest salaries and they will be impacted greatly. Think about someone like Dobnek, he doesn't have the service time and will only be paid the minimum if they play, if they cancel the season all together he's straight to the unemployment office just like everyone else. And B. it's not like there's an option where everyone wins here, our opions include playing some limited ball where some get paid but some workers lose their jobs or we cancel everything and no one gets paid and everyone loses their jobs.

 

This whole scenario isn't ideal for anyone but the MLB is a business like any other where there are thousands of employees that rely on it for their income. It's not just about getting overpaid players their overpriced salaries or billionaire owners their money, it's about so many more behind the scene people trying to feed their families as well. Yes it sucks that concession people and ticket booth people will be unemployed and many of those are also just trying to feed their families as well but at least it's something rather than nothing.

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While a MLB season would be nice, and certainly a feel good tale at a time of few feel good anything’s, there are bigger fish to fry.

 

Unless and until, everyone who needs a test for health reasons has one readily available MLB simply cannot be seen as appropriating tests so the owners and players can profit. If they cannot see that from a moral standpoint, maybe the public relations problems inherent to such a move would be enough to convince them of the heartlessness of such a decision. At least if a 3M plant is in operation to make masks, or a ventilator plant is running, the public good is being served. The rest of us will be able to get by not knowing who would be the winner of a faux World Series.

 

On one other point. Please! Stop using WW2 as a comparison to the Covid. It’s apples to oranges, or worse broccoli. When baseball was played during the war, none of the players, umpires, staff, vendors or fans risked their lives by playing or attending. Nor did they risk the lives of others who did not attend by dispersing after the game.

How long would it be before a visible participant, player, umpire, or broadcaster would be hospitalized, or worse die from that decision? Then what? Soldier on as we did during the war? Or admit the folly and suffer the repercussions?

 

This isn’t WW2 which was fought across the ponds. This is right here, right now. There really is no correlation.

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Remember the controversies when MLB-ready prospects are held down in the minors at the start of a season to extend team control? Guys not called up until later in the spring or early summer even though they tore it up in the minors?

 

Might be less of that this year. If wealthy veterans would rather not be quarantined, there could well be some young prospects willing to live ensconced in hotels, knowing that millions will be watching them play on TV.

 

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While I enjoy the positive spin, I have to wonder on the moral question of should society provide daily testing so these guys can play a game? If one sick person cannot get tested because we are trying to get MLB playing then it's wrong. I hope they play as much as anybody. I just can't justify redirecting needed resources.

 

It appears the tests are on the critical path. The line in the story is: "how quickly fast-result coronavirus tests will be so ubiquitous that there can be enough for thousands of MLB participants to take them a daily basis." I'm not advocating that precious tests get diverted to MLB players. 

 

If the pessimism for the start of the season is that we're just never going to have enough tests this summer to make daily testing feasible, I guess I can see that. Certainly, the federal government hasn't been capable of solving the issue right now. But the covid test issue is a billion dollar solution just waiting to be resolved by any number of American and world companies.

 

I'll agree its the remaining greatest unknown for this plan. Maybe it's foolish to think it will be solved. But it's the key to not only the MLB season starting, but any number of industries. 

 

 

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 If one sick person cannot get tested because we are trying to get MLB playing then it's wrong. I hope they play as much as anybody. I just can't justify redirecting needed resources.

 

How is it South Korea, Germany, China are all able to get enough tests to monitor their people and get on top of this thing, and we are so far behind?

 

My understanding is that Germany is so far out in front of the coronavirus that they take sick patients from other countries to alleviate some of the pressure.

 

 

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If (giant if) they do play this year, I could very much see a situation much like the '87 football season. While the lower-end guys and hangers-on have a huge incentive to go through with all of this and be quarantined away from their families and everyone they know, there's very little reason for the elite players to do so. Hell, if anything, there's every incentive for every player good enough to have the financial stability to miss a season to sit out. Why risk it for one year if your Bryce Harper or Mike Trout or really anyone who has future earnings to consider?

 

Throw in the lack of a real spring training to ramp up and the unequal access to work out facilities and whatnot and whatever baseball does end up being played has a good chance of being basically minor-league level. I mean, I'll watch the hell out of it, but I have to believe a good chunk of quality players will not be involved.

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How is it South Korea, Germany, China are all able to get enough tests to monitor their people and get on top of this thing, and we are so far behind?

 

My understanding is that Germany is so far out in front of the coronavirus that they take sick patients from other countries to alleviate some of the pressure.

Germany doesn't have a centralized FDA like we do.  German companies were able to build on the WHO test (which isn't perfect), develop a reliable test and implement distribution without having to clear a bunch of regulatory hurdles.

 

The WHO distributes their tests to countries that don't have the means and resources to develop and distribute their own tests and vaccines.  The strong help the weak.  While the test components aren't secret, the US develops its own viral testing regimens subject to approval of our FDA.  That's our decades-old system.

 

That the FDA bureaucracy is not ready for prime time has been long known.  But before we point fingers compare the testing and vaccine timelines for FDA approval during the Ebola and H1N1 virus pandemics.  There's slow, and then there's real slow.  The FDA has had arteriosclerosis for a long time.

 

Suspend the FDA regulatory system during a pandemic?  Sacre bleu!  Call the NY Times!  Our citizens cannot be at risk and subject to the profit whims and whimsies of drug companies.

 

The good news is that by June we and MLB/Milb players, coaches and staff should have a readily available COVID 19 test available, as should we all.  If we give credit to Germany's test results as well as its testing regimen, then the mortality rate is pretty low, worse than the flu granted, but treatable with drugs that are readily available and cheap.  Risk-free?  Certainly not.  But, what in life is?

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Love it? Not sure about that, but it is better than nothing. 

 

The extreme precautions our country is demanding leaves me shaking my head. I understood early on when this was just taking off but at some point I think we need to stop being curled up on in our closets and learn to live (and die) with this like we do other activities. 

 

Have very strong measures to protect the most vulnerable, reasonable measures to protect the rest of us and get on with life. For people who are risk averse, I respect that and each person needs to make their own decision. 

 

For MLB, maybe it is daily testing and all players, coaches, and umps where masks. All workers and fans must where masks. Sales are limited so that people not part of the same family are not sitting close to each other (should generally not be much of an issue anyway as attendance would be way down as it is). Warning signs discouraging high risk people from entering. Etc. 

 

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Any positive spin about a potential season I’ve read makes 2 large assumptions. 1) An enormous amount of test kits will be produced in 90 days or less. 2) Players will be accepting the conditions of isolating themselves from their families for an extended period of time.

 

I’ll leave out the test kits because it’s been mentioned in numerous other threads. Most of these players are fairly young with small children at home. That’s a big ask for any civilian to accept. These people are not trained military personnel, who are committed to protecting this country and deployed to areas around the world. They are normal civilians who happen to throw a ball harder than the average person, and hit a ball with a bat.

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I wish I could get on board with this line of thinking. But for me, it starts and ends here:

 

MLB and the players can influence the timeline, but not control it.

 

This is bigger than baseball, and bigger than money, no matter how much they want their football fields of cash.

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How is it South Korea, Germany, China are all able to get enough tests to monitor their people and get on top of this thing, and we are so far behind?

 

My understanding is that Germany is so far out in front of the coronavirus that they take sick patients from other countries to alleviate some of the pressure.

Honest question why do you think South Korea, German and China have enough tests?

It is my understanding that the US is testing about 8500 per million people, South Korea just over 10,000, and Germany just under 18,000 again this is per million.

I couldn't find stats on China but I am sure they are out there.

 

I don't mean to defend the US, all seem like they are way too low.

 

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I am also optimistic John! No new cases in NY the last 24 hours. That is progress. Also does seem test kits will be flowing in the multi-millions within 2 weeks. 
I am less optimistic that FSN will be back on my dumb dish. I cannot believe they won't make a deal under these circumstances. 100% sports network with zero sports to provide and they still won't make a deal. 

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How is it South Korea, Germany, China are all able to get enough tests to monitor their people and get on top of this thing, and we are so far behind?

 

My understanding is that Germany is so far out in front of the coronavirus that they take sick patients from other countries to alleviate some of the pressure.

There have been numerous articles published by numerous sources about how the current Presidential administration took certain actions and failed to take other certain actions during the last three years which resulted in poor control of the spread of the virus in this country.

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There have been numerous articles published by numerous sources about how the current Presidential administration took certain actions and failed to take other certain actions during the last three years which resulted in poor control of the spread of the virus in this country.

Numerous! And in depth!

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Maybe someone can explain this to me.   I thought the whole idea of flattening the curve was that most people were going to be exposed eventually but to avoid the steep curve of everyone getting it at once so that our medical resources do not get overrun.   I figured this would involve a couple more weeks of isolation and then maybe open up restaurants but not schools.   Then maybe open up other non essential business but not huge crowds of people like ball games, fairs and concerts attract.    Healthy athletes sequestered to playing baseball without the crowds seems like a reasonable transition to exposing a small population that are lower risk.   I don't think you even need extreme measures like testing every day but just common sense precautions.  Again are we trying to eliminate the spread or flatten the spread.  My understanding was the latter but so much of the reaction has been the former.    If people just keep practicing social distancing and continue the other stuff like washing hands and cleaning surfaces I think my chances of avoiding the virus are decent since I avoid large crowds anyway..   Add in the 80% or better that if I get the virus it will just be flu like and then add in the chances that if I do need to be hospitalized that the curve will have flattened enough to have made ventilators etc available for me.    Is my premise wrong or is it my conclusion?   Are we trying to stop the spread or flatten it?    If it is to stop the spread then we are probably in for months of home sheltering.   If its to flatten it does the transition need to be way slower than I envision it?   Large crowds and schools would logically be the last things to transition.

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This is not really to forum to have this conversation but if we’re going to analyze why Germany has been seemingly able to handle this pandemic better it probably begins with their testing.

 

In mid-January, the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF) had a functioning COVID-19 test in place. When researchers at Charite in Berlin developed this test, hospitals and clinics began to stock up on them. Likewise, they also worked with the nation’s private labs to ensure they could perform the tests. So even before cases started to arrive in that country at the end of February, they already had a system in place to test citizens fairly effectively.

 

Comparatively, the United States was still trying to develop a nationwide test through the CDC (which had trouble locking into an effective and accurate test procedure). In early February, the CDC sent out 200 kits around the country but later acknowledge that they had flaws in their tests and needed weeks to come up with a solution. By March, when the virus started to grow, the CDC had a test but hadn’t prepared private labs to handle it, often lacking the equipment to run them. While private labs in the US are just now starting to do a lot of the heavy lifting, as of early March many of them were unable to contribute.

 

The Germans do have an FDA equivalent – The Federal Institute for Drug and Medical Devices (BfArM) – which needs to approval these kinds of tests similar to how the FDA functions. However, Germany has a Medical Devices Act they use in times of crisis that allows for rapid approval/distribution of medical respirators or tests. Like the BfArM, the FDA also has an Emergency Use Authorization plan in which they can fast track medical tests, which they did for Roche and their SARS-CoV-2 test in March.

 

I do hope we see Major League Baseball again, in any form -- provided that it's safe -- sometime this year. If not, I'm looking forward to ESPN potentially broadcasting the KBO. The Chinese Professional Baseball League also started this week and you can watch broadcasts here. I for one, have been a life-long Unilions fan. 

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La-Z-boy:

 

I like your optimism, but I'm not sure where you are getting your stats.  New York reported 6200 new cases yesterday.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I stand corrected. Went to cdc.gov and saw the Covid-19 cases by date of illness onset. Finally saw a zero and got ahead of myself. This number peaked at 15,000 Apr 2 and is dropping like a stone. It was my State of Ia that had zero yesterday. Thanks Puckstopper1 

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I stand corrected. Went to cdc.gov and saw the Covid-19 cases by date of illness onset. Finally saw a zero and got ahead of myself. This number peaked at 15,000 Apr 2 and is dropping like a stone. It was my State of Ia that had zero yesterday. Thanks Puckstopper1 

Ok Puckstopper, I just saw it again. NBC News is reporting No new corona cases in NY today. It is according to an interview of Cuomo this morning. Found an article on it, and sorry I do not know how to give you the link. It's on Dailycaller.com right now. I knew I heard this, but it was way early am this morning. Go baseball season!!

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This is not really to forum to have this conversation but if we’re going to analyze why Germany has been seemingly able to handle this pandemic better it probably begins with their testing.

 

In mid-January, the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF) had a functioning COVID-19 test in place. When researchers at Charite in Berlin developed this test, hospitals and clinics began to stock up on them. Likewise, they also worked with the nation’s private labs to ensure they could perform the tests. So even before cases started to arrive in that country at the end of February, they already had a system in place to test citizens fairly effectively.

 

Comparatively, the United States was still trying to develop a nationwide test through the CDC (which had trouble locking into an effective and accurate test procedure). In early February, the CDC sent out 200 kits around the country but later acknowledge that they had flaws in their tests and needed weeks to come up with a solution. By March, when the virus started to grow, the CDC had a test but hadn’t prepared private labs to handle it, often lacking the equipment to run them. While private labs in the US are just now starting to do a lot of the heavy lifting, as of early March many of them were unable to contribute.

 

The Germans do have an FDA equivalent – The Federal Institute for Drug and Medical Devices (BfArM) – which needs to approval these kinds of tests similar to how the FDA functions. However, Germany has a Medical Devices Act they use in times of crisis that allows for rapid approval/distribution of medical respirators or tests. Like the BfArM, the FDA also has an Emergency Use Authorization plan in which they can fast track medical tests, which they did for Roche and their SARS-CoV-2 test in March.

 

I do hope we see Major League Baseball again, in any form -- provided that it's safe -- sometime this year. If not, I'm looking forward to ESPN potentially broadcasting the KBO. The Chinese Professional Baseball League also started this week and you can watch broadcasts here. I for one, have been a life-long Unilions fan.

Ironically, people in the United States are blaming the government for testing issues. Meanwhile, it’s a side step of regulation that is being portrayed as the difference in Germany (blaming a single politician is asinine in and of itself, but I won’t continue down that road. Trusting bureaucrats with something that requires efficient resource allocation is mistake #1).

 

One thing people also seem to lose track of: There could very well be faulty tests all over the world, including Germany, to this day. Rolling out testing just for the sake of testing may not be a good answer. Way too much hysteria around testing, IMO. There were a number of tests out there offering false positives (which tend to help recovery statistics). Do people really believe we’re bumbling idiots that can’t come up with an effective test, meanwhile there’s a stockpile of highly effective test out there from Germany that we refuse to use? It’s much more likely that their tests aren’t real accurate at this point either (but who will ever admit that, especially news outlets with an agenda). Testing for the sake of testing, without properly analyzing the veracity of the results given - which takes a significant amount of time, is in no way a solution to any problem.

 

Testing isn’t the issue in America. Allowing tens, possibly hundreds of thousands, of people back into this country at a vital time is the problem. Liberal media shooting down preventative travel restriction policies as xenophobic at a critical time is the problem. People not adhering to stay at home orders because of conservative media minimizing the seriousness is the problem. The out of control politics in this country on both sides of the aisle, that has bled into our media infrastructure to such an extent that you can’t trust anything reported anymore, was and still is the problem (yet, we’re becoming increasingly divided on the issue - you’d think there would be a lesson to be learned). Again, won’t hear any of that on CNN, and you’ll hear the extreme the other way on Fox. The media in the country are an embarrassment, and should face massive repercussions once this is over.

 

IMO, arguing the testing point right now doesn’t make any sense. Would it be great to have a better picture of the stats right now? Sure. But, what would that change at this very moment? We’ve already put the measures in place based on worst-case scenario modeling. The real data will come out eventually, and the way the models keep being modified, it’s almost certainly not going to tell us we’re not doing enough right now (can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube from three months ago). The main thing is we keep working to fight this thing with treatment/preventative measures.

 

People need to be wary of doctored numbers coming from different regions of the world. People trusting, even citing, numbers from China are verifiably insane. Hell, even German and American data should probably be taken with a grain of salt to some extent (states competing against other states, political agendas, etc.).

 

Also, what about demographic data and who is being tested? Sample sizes? Severity of cases (there are different “mutations”) in different regions? The people on this website should know better than anyone the danger of investing in faulty statistics and small sample sizes. You’re relying on batting average over the first month to determine MVP at this point. I’ll wait for some more complete metrics before determining winners/losers in this scenario.

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Ironically, people in the United States are blaming the government for testing issues...

 

 

I'm not going to respond to this screed because, frankly, it doesn't merit one. What I presented was a factual timeline between two countries on how testing has been handled, not levying judgments.  

 

But to bring this conversation back to baseball, it is almost definite that you need effective testing in order to make this season work. From Jeff Passan's article about why the KBO will be able to re-start soon:

 

TO UNDERSTAND WHY Korean baseball might return before any other organized sport, one must understand day-to-day life in coronavirus-times South Korea.

 

{snip]

 

Upon the first positive coronavirus test in early February, the government ramped up testing capacity and quickly offered free, same-day testing stations around the country. Members of the Giants have been able to get tested and receive the results within 10 hours or less.

 

 

It goes on to describe Dan Straily's experience with his team and some of the policies to manage the team during the outbreak. For instance, players go through thermal body scans when they hit the park and if someone feels ill, the team goes home while they wait the results of the teammate's test. 

 

Along the same lines, Daniel Kim, a DKTV baseball analyst in Souel, was recently interviewed by Newsday and said this:

 

“Right now, if I feel that I wanted to get tested, I could just walk out right now and get tested,” Kim said. “Testing is available pretty much 24/7 to everyone. Whether it’s because you feel sick or you want to feel secure that you're healthy.”

 

 

To make it work, you have to have effective testing. The United States was behind in this regard. It's possible that it can catch up -- American ingenuity and all -- but at this point the country feels well behind South Korea.  

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