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fangraphs and other national, non-local articles about the Twins (2020)


gunnarthor
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Can't find the old thread on this but it's probably time for a new one anyway.

Fangraphs just published their playoff odds - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Twins have a 2/3 chance! Only the Yankees and Astros are higher. AL East is going to be pretty bad this year, actually, although I'm in the camp that thinks the Red Sox will completely fall apart and finish below .500. Fangraphs doesn't think that. AL West could be brutal. A's and Angels both look good. Squint and you can see ways for each to win the West.

 

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Can't find the old thread on this but it's probably time for a new one anyway.

Fangraphs just published their playoff odds - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Twins have a 2/3 chance! Only the Yankees and Astros are higher. AL East is going to be pretty bad this year, actually, although I'm in the camp that thinks the Red Sox will completely fall apart and finish below .500. Fangraphs doesn't think that. AL West could be brutal. A's and Angels both look good. Squint and you can see ways for each to win the West.

McCuellers and Urquidy will determine who wins the west.

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If I was a gambling man, I'd go put some money on the Reds. I love what they've done and I will be actively cheering for them in 2020.

 

Full disclosure, I am an occasional gambling man, but I'm absolutely terrible at sports betting. So don't go bet the farm on the Reds because of this post. I know many of you were about to do just that. Good thing I included this disclosure.

 

Also, give me the over on the Blue Jays at 74.2 wins.

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If I was a gambling man, I'd go put some money on the Reds. I love what they've done and I will be actively cheering for them in 2020.

 

Full disclosure, I am an occasional gambling man, but I'm absolutely terrible at sports betting. So don't go bet the farm on the Reds because of this post. I know many of you were about to do just that. Good thing I included this disclosure.

 

Also, give me the over on the Blue Jays at 74.2 wins.

 

I like how aggressive the Reds were but I don't particularly like most of their moves. Moustakas and Castellanos are decent players, but they both seemed more knee-jerk moves to me, I don't think they're nearly as good as the contracts they got; reminds me of the Padres moves the last couple of years. 

 

I think Toronto could step up this year though. I could see a lot of turnover in that division.

 

I'm not as confident in Houston either. The scandal hanging over the team's head not-withstanding, they're down to one elite starter and he's 37. Greinke is good but no longer dominant and the young guys don't come close to matching up to Charlie Morton let along Gerrit Cole. 

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I like how aggressive the Reds were but I don't particularly like most of their moves. Moustakas and Castellanos are decent players, but they both seemed more knew-jerk moves to me, I don't think they're nearly as good as the contracts they got; reminds me of the Padres moves the last couple of years. 

 

I think Toronto could step up this year though. I could see a lot of turnover in that division.

 

I'm not as confident in Houston either. The scandal hanging over the team's head not-withstanding, they're down to one elite starter and he's 37. Greinke is good but no longer dominant and the young guys don't come close to matching up to Charlie Morton let along Gerrit Cole. 

I like the Castellanos deal better than the one for Moose. Easier to get out of.

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Hold up, now... The White Sox are clearly the favorites in the division.

 

https://southsideshowdown.com/2020/02/05/chicago-white-sox-minnesota-twins-cant-compete/

 

(click through this writer's other entries, they're really hilariously bad)

 

But in all seriousness, I'm surprised the Twins are under 70%. Not that I disagree, I'm just surprised. I simply don't have a lot of faith in Cleveland and I don't think the White Sox are ready to step over 90 wins so I'm not thinking about them too hard.

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I'm not as confident in Houston either. The scandal hanging over the team's head not-withstanding, they're down to one elite starter and he's 37. Greinke is good but no longer dominant and the young guys don't come close to matching up to Charlie Morton let along Gerrit Cole. 

I actually feel this way as well. Houston will still be good, don't get me wrong, but I'm not confident they're going to just push over the rest of the division, particularly the A's. 

 

I think the scandal will wear down on them over the course of the season and losing the 6-7 wins from Cole is going to sting, not even counting the fact that either/both of Verlander/Grienke could decide to get hurt or decline pretty rapidly at that age.

 

They will still be a very good team but it wouldn't shock me if they "scuffle" to 91 wins and lose the division.

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Hold up, now... The White Sox are clearly the favorites in the division.

 

https://southsideshowdown.com/2020/02/05/chicago-white-sox-minnesota-twins-cant-compete/

 

(click through this writer's other entries, they're really hilariously bad)

 

But in all seriousness, I'm surprised the Twins are under 70%. Not that I disagree, I'm just surprised. I simply don't have a lot of faith in Cleveland and I don't think the White Sox are ready to step over 90 wins so I'm not thinking about them too hard.

I actually hope Chicago is good again. I loved the 02-10 rivalry we had with them. Absolutely loved it. They have some real talent on that team - they could be a wildcard team and win 90 some games if everything breaks for them. Robert is a hell of a prospect.

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I actually hope Chicago is good again. I loved the 02-10 rivalry we had with them. Absolutely loved it. They have some real talent on that team - they could be a wildcard team and win 90 some games if everything breaks for them. Robert is a hell of a prospect.

Oh, the Sox could easily be a 90 win team if they get 2-3 breaks for them this season.

 

The thing is that getting 2-3 breaks from 23-26 year olds at the same time doesn't often happen.

 

The Sox *will* be good, just probably not in 2020.

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Can't find the old thread on this but it's probably time for a new one anyway.

Fangraphs just published their playoff odds - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Twins have a 2/3 chance! Only the Yankees and Astros are higher. AL East is going to be pretty bad this year, actually, although I'm in the camp that thinks the Red Sox will completely fall apart and finish below .500. Fangraphs doesn't think that. AL West could be brutal. A's and Angels both look good. Squint and you can see ways for each to win the West.

 

Should someone tell him that PECOTA has Maeda as the 14th most valuable pitcher in 2020?.... 31 spots above Giolito. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Fangraphs author digs up stats I've never heard of to argue that Maeda is on the verge of a massive break-out.

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/have-the-twins-found-an-ace-in-kenta-maeda/

good article! Thanks for sharing. I like the non-foul-ball strikes metric!

 

My fear is Maeda will gain a ton of benefit with Buxton roaming CF and Kepler in RF... then go right in the toilet with an extended period of Jake Cave in the OF....

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good article! Thanks for sharing. I like the non-foul-ball strikes metric!

 

I like that CSW too.

Looking at Maeda by CSW per pitch over his four seasons was pretty revealing too. His change-up wasn't worth a darn his rookie year but he excelled with a good fastball and great slider. Still didn't have a change-up in 2017 but his fastball wasn't getting results either and that slider was his only plus pitch. Found his change-up in 2018 but the fastball was still garbage and, well, the slider is always great. Got the fastball back in 2019 but the change-up fell off again.

Maybe 2020 is when he puts it all three pitches together...

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1512-lets-predict-this-decade/

 

Not sure the proper protocol for linking to a podcast. The hosts are predicting the decade a la MLB’s the vault contest and Sam Miller predicts Buxton to win the most MVP awards between now and 2029. Anyone familiar with this podcast knows there’s a lot more to it than that. Worth a listen.

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  • 8 months later...

 

Oh, the Sox could easily be a 90 win team if they get 2-3 breaks for them this season.

 

The thing is that getting 2-3 breaks from 23-26 year olds at the same time doesn't often happen.

 

The Sox *will* be good, just probably not in 2020.

 

I think you could make an argument the Twins had 5 in 2019. Garver / Polanco / Kepler / Sano and Berrios had his best season. 

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I think you could make an argument the Twins had 5 in 2019. Garver / Polanco / Kepler / Sano and Berrios had his best season. 

Sure, but there's a difference between young players struggling, having their ups and downs, for a few years before breaking out (the 2019 Twins) versus having a bunch of rookies or second year players breaking out simultaneously (the 2020 Sox).

 

The former is almost expected, the latter is more unlikely. And, as we saw the Sox implode down the stretch, it's probable that they would have ended a standard 162 set as a good, but definitely not great, team.

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Sure, but there's a difference between young players struggling, having their ups and downs, for a few years before breaking out (the 2019 Twins) versus having a bunch of rookies or second year players breaking out simultaneously (the 2020 Sox).

 

The former is almost expected, the latter is more unlikely. And, as we saw the Sox implode down the stretch, it's probable that they would have ended a standard 162 set as a good, but definitely not great, team.

 

They are not as inexperienced as the media makes them out to be. They have Abreau / Grandal in terms of really experienced vets. Anderson / Moncada both have 4 years experience. Jimenez is on year 3. They traded one of their their inexperienced SPs for Lynn. Of course, they have Keuchel and Giolito has plenty experienced. I just don't see them as this young / inexperienced team they are made out to be.

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Expect the White Sox to be good, very good, This is precisely why the Twins will sign a significant player (or two or three) and make a solid trade. The winter hasn't quite arrived. There is plenty of time. What is the best roster for next year at $140 million or less? Falvine have decisions to make.

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They are not as inexperienced as the media makes them out to be. They have Abreau / Grandal in terms of really experienced vets. Anderson / Moncada both have 4 years experience. Jimenez is on year 3. They traded one of their their inexperienced SPs for Lynn. Of course, they have Keuchel and Giolito has plenty experienced. I just don't see them as this young / inexperienced team they are made out to be.

You realize you originally quoted a post that's almost a year old, right? You're talking about the 2021 Sox and my post is from before the 2020 season began. 

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You realize you originally quoted a post that's almost a year old, right? You're talking about the 2021 Sox and my post is from before the 2020 season began. 

 

Oops! Sorry, I did not realize. However, fast forward a year and a lot of the media is still portraying them as a team about to fulfill their promise. At least that's how it seems to me. Regardless, they are the favorites. We need to fill a couple holes and hope the guys that had down years last year bounce back.

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Oops! Sorry, I did not realize. However, fast forward a year and a lot of the media is still portraying them as a team about to fulfill their promise. At least that's how it seems to me. Regardless, they are the favorites. We need to fill a couple holes and hope the guys that had down years last year bounce back.

I don't know if I'd call them the division favorites but they're definitely expected to be a frontrunner for the division. Personally, I viewed their 2020 as the type of "surge forward, fall back" season that young teams often see before becoming legitimate competitors going forward.

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