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FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects


dbminn
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Eric Longenhagen published the FG Top 100 prospects today. Scouting reports from both Eric and Kiley McDaniel, although Kiley recently left for ESPN.

 

Five Twins in the Top 100:

 

13. Royce Lewis

55. Trevor Larnach

58. Alex Kirilloff

63. Jhoan Duran

74. Jordan Balazovic

 

Graterol is listed at #113. The FG folks usually lower a prospect if there are injury concerns and/or relief pitcher probability. 

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I like that they are Ballsy enough to put Larnach over Kirilloff.  I think they are right though.  The extra plate discipline Larnach has should help him be more successful when he makes the jump.  Larnach has plenty of power too and a good hit tool.  I really like both of them and am looking forward to see how well they perform this year.

 

Duran keeps moving up with Balazovic not far behind.  Things are finally looking up on the pitching front.  I am surprised they dropped Graterol out of the 100 altogether but I guess this Boston thing has everyone up in the air on his final projection.

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Duran sure made a big jump! He zoomed past Balazovic. He deserves that but what did they base that on?

 

They already had Duran ahead when they released the Twins list a few months ago (and ahead of Graterol IIRC - though Graterol seems to have gotten a recent downgrade due to the fact that it's becoming clearer that he probably wont start).

 

They grade out each of Duran's pitches higher than Balazovic's, so that is probably why they have him higher.  Balazovic edges him out on command, but overall the upside on Duran looks a lot higher if those grades are accurate.

 

They probably got to see him pitch a few times last year, and also talk to a lot of scouts to get an idea of how his stuff usually looks.  They also get input on their rankings from team insiders (this guy is too low or this guy is too high), so part of it is often based on the team's own internal evaluations.

 

Based on the little snippets we hear from the front office, it's clear they really like Duran, and I'd be surprised if he was worse than 4th in their own internal valuations (even when they still had Graterol).  I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they rank him ahead of one or two of the big three position prospects either.

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I like that they are Ballsy enough to put Larnach over Kirilloff.  I think they are right though.  The extra plate discipline Larnach has should help him be more successful when he makes the jump.  Larnach has plenty of power too and a good hit tool.  I really like both of them and am looking forward to see how well they perform this year.

 

I go back and forth on them.  I still like Kirilloff's upside more, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Larnach hit the ground running in the majors moreso than we often see with prospects.  Just kind of feels like he'll be able to hit at any level as he moves up steadily.

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I am surprised they dropped Graterol out of the 100 altogether but I guess this Boston thing has everyone up in the air on his final projection.

 

I don't really think there was any new information, it just sort of crystallized for everyone how unlikely he actually was to be a starter in the majors.  I don't think there was any real red flag in his MRI or anything (both Boston and LA still wanted him, just in a different package).  I think Boston just started thinking about it harder and realized that him being a starter just wasn't that likely--something the Twins' front office seemed to realize faster than most everyone else.  The prospect rankers also probably thought about it more and downgraded him accordingly.  He's still the same pitcher he was a month ago, everyone is just a little more clear-eyed about what that is.

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Well, the delta between the two OFers and the two pitchers is a rounding error. Nice rankings!

 

Would love to have Gore right now....you'd probably still have Gaterol if you had Gore. Oh well. Let's hope they are right, and Lewis can fix things.

Although, you can make the argument that Duran is just as close as is Gore...both just got their feet wet in AA, neither totally cruised. Duran older. But, yeah...at this point, Lewis tracking behind Gore and others from that draft like Keston Hiura (thanks Luis Arraez)

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I always look at how ALC pipelines stack up. Both CWS and now DET have superior pipelines strictly on the basis of elite prospects. I'd trade our top 5 prospects for the top 3 prospects of CWS or DET without a moment's hesitation.

 

This once again tells us how absolutely valuable it is to have those very top picks in the draft and how a system's fortunes can turn in a matter of 3 years. DET has two 60FV pitchers in Manning and Mize now, for example. Two guys markedly more highly-regarded than Duran and Balazovic.

 

But that's not to discount the importance of depth down past those top 120 prospects. DET and CWS are still pretty weak depth-wise. A club needs both quality and quantity these days.

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Although, you can make the argument that Duran is just as close as is Gore...both just got their feet wet in AA, neither totally cruised. Duran older. But, yeah...at this point, Lewis tracking behind Gore and others from that draft like Keston Hiura (thanks Luis Arraez)

 

Duran has nothing to do with Gore though, right? And, there is a huge grading difference between the two at every ranking site. 

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I always look at how ALC pipelines stack up. Both CWS and now DET have superior pipelines strictly on the basis of elite prospects. I'd trade our top 5 prospects for the top 3 prospects of CWS or DET without a moment's hesitation.

 

This once again tells us how absolutely valuable it is to have those very top picks in the draft and how a system's fortunes can turn in a matter of 3 years. DET has two 60FV pitchers in Manning and Mize now, for example. Two guys markedly more highly-regarded than Duran and Balazovic.

 

But that's not to discount the importance of depth down past those top 120 prospects. DET and CWS are still pretty weak depth-wise. A club needs both quality and quantity these days.

When guys enter the minors unranked/relatively unknown, it's hard to climb above the guys who were highly regarded prospects at the start of their careers.

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I go back and forth on them.  I still like Kirilloff's upside more, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Larnach hit the ground running in the majors moreso than we often see with prospects.  Just kind of feels like he'll be able to hit at any level as he moves up steadily.

 

I think Kirilloff is getting a little but under appreciated due to his somewhat ordinary stats last year. There are few things more important to a hitter than his hands and wrists.  A bad wrist will definitely rob power.  Look at his stats in Aug and Sept when he was fully healed.  Look at his numbers in the AA playoffs.  I think he bounces back HUGE this year and shoots back up prospect rankings into top 10 going into next season.  If he doesn’t hit his way on to the Twins and lose his prospect status.

 

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