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Getting $10M better than getting a solid prospect?


darin617
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Why would anyone care about the money, other than team ownership? Ownership has shown repeatedly that a penny saved in one season doesn’t get allocated to the following year’s budget (not saying it should or shouldn’t, just a fact).

 

The $10M means absolutely nothing to this year’s team or future teams. We’re basically analyzing whether a top prospect is better than nothing.

 

If we’re going to pretend like the $10M actually means something to the future of the team, what does $10M get you on the open market? Two years of a middle reliever or a bench player? So, we’re talking about whether one would rather have a top prospect or a middle reliever?

 

I’m sorry, but there is just no rational argument for taking the money (unless you’re an owner). It adds the least amount of value to future rosters, and it’s not even close. It’s basically wondering whether it’s better to have a lottery ticket and zero dollars....or just zero dollars.

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So the $10 million reduces payroll this year? Or spread out over the contract of the pitcher?

 

Be interesting to see the low level prospect.

 

Think the Twins scored big giving Raley back to the Dodgers. With Rosario still a Twin, and Cave and Wade...Raley was getting pushed further down the pecking order. His strength would've ben first bae, but now we have hopes of Sano holding that position for a year or two.

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I dont understand why this is even a question considering (and we have all witnessed it firsthand many, many times) how infrequently prospects, even top ones actually pan out.

 

GIVE ME THE MONEY!!!

By this logic, they should just sell all of their prospects and draft picks.

Eventually we'd have a roster full of organizational filler DFA'd by other teams. But hey, the Pohlad's would have a lot more money.

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Rather disappointing and sour smells must surely be better than proclaiming the offseason is a failure and can not be salvaged.

the failure to add to the front of the rotation was, and still is a failure.

 

They've recovered pretty well, but it's still a failure, and this trade is but one result of that failure.

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I remain mildly supportive of this trade, dont care a whit about Raley, but...taking back money for a pick is rather disappointing.

 

I can live with it, it's not a big deal, it just adds a whiff of sour smell to the entire process.

I’m a bit perplexed by that part of the move. It just doesn’t really make sense to me. If you asked me which team was more likely to make that request first, I’d have no idea.
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Feels a bit like the Twins got the short end of the deal by adding the comp pick and Raley on top of the originally agreed upon deal but I’ll reserve judgement until the identity of the “low level minor leaguer” is revealed. Hard to grasp as a fan how $10 million cash enhances the on field performance/experience but don’t really care either.

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I’m a bit perplexed by that part of the move. It just doesn’t really make sense to me. If you asked me which team was more likely to make that request first, I’d have no idea.

 

I was wondering the same thing. From the Dodgers end Is the conversation starter if you won't give us another prospect how about throwing in your 2nd round comp pick.  Or from the Twins end so how much would you be willing to give us for Raley and our 2nd round comp pick? 

 

Since the Twins have done this before i tend to think they brought it up first but who knows.  I just find it odd to trade the comp pick for money.  Has any other team done that?  I can't think of one.  Comp picks have been traded for players but most teams keep them.  

 

I guess I don't know the prospect return on our end but I can't imagine it will be anything big.  Will have to wait and see before judging this deal but I do find the money for the pick odd.

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The Dodgers took advantage of 2 situations. Boston wanted to move contracts and the Dodgers helped them. In a win now mode Price and Betts for this year offers them a better chance than having Verdugo and Maeda.  Credit the Dodgers for using the Boston declining Graterol to get more out of the Twins for Maeda.  Give the Dodgers credit for recognizing that Maeda being viewed as a middle of the rotation starter by other teams became more valuable than they thought he was as a swing starter and reliever. The draft pick to the Dodgers has a higher ceiling than any of the prospects likely offered to make the trade happen. Kudos to the front office for extracting money out of the Dodgers. Money is still something the Dodgers have plenty of.

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To a team with a billion dollar tv deal 10 million dollars isn't really worth anything. They are going to spend the maximum that mlb will allow.  For everyone else 10 million dollars is much more valuable than a late 2nd round pick. The best example I can think of is the Bobby Bonilla contract. They delayed paying him and that allowed them to sign Mike Hampton. That team went to the World Series. Even without the Bernie Madoff shenanigans is was a good deal for the Mets.  Money is an asset just like prospects are.

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The answer is the simple and obvious one... it depends. The reality of the situation is that the Front Office DOES have a maximum budget. It's silly of us to say "there's no salary cap. They can spend whatever they want" They are already at their highest payroll ever and that's not even counting some of the incentives Maeda will almost certainly reach and some incentives we are all hoping that Rich Hill meets.  Maybe the FO already feels tapped out and maybe they don't. But if the $10M allows them to make one last move that might put us over the top, then the comp B pick is a small price to pay. 

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Yep looks like if we are lucky he will be as good as David Banuelous.  As predicted a total nothing burger return.  Not sure why they felt they needed that 10M but I would have thought they could have gotten more for Raley than just money and a catcher who goes to the plate blind folded.

 

Well they did kind of need to move Raley and at least they got something for him as he helped close the Maeda trade which is better than just releasing him but dang Friedman always wins these deals, always.  I hope Maeda is better than I think he is going to be but if he gets through the first couple of months of the season pitching well, this will have been a good deal for us as well.

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I'm not sure where you are seeing $149 mil. I see $131.5 mil under Total Payroll:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins//payroll

 

Luxury tax payroll is a little higher at $139 mil, but that's likely irrelevant to the Twins. (It ignores the Donaldson deal being a backloaded, etc.) Spotrac seems a little hard to read for my taste too -- for example, I can't see where or how they are accounting for the Maeda cash.

 

I prefer Cot's Contracts as my source, and they have the Twins at $135.5 right now for 2020 -- they are assuming the $10 mil from the Dodgers is spread out evenly over Maeda's deal:

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900

 

Edit to add: Cot's also notes the 26th roster spot, and Perez's buyout counts against fiscal year 2019 which is generally how MLB teams operate. You are correct that IL stints will increase this, but it will basically just be at league minimum salary prorated for IL days. Per Spotrac's IL days for 2019 Twins, that would have been less than $2 mil.

The STrib has Starting Payroll at $135 plus unsigned rookies totaling 4 mil (139-140) and incentives plus IL fodder can push it to $150

 

http://m.startribune.com/in-final-piece-of-graterol-maeda-deal-twins-get-class-a-catcher/567745652/

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The negativity regarding this off-season is a little confusing. The Twins have been more active this season than any previous season since when they picked up Lynn.

 

We added a high caliber 3rd baseman who not only helped our defense substantially but also can smash the ball.

 

We added a pitcher who isn't necessarily a Cy Young candidate but one that can still make an impact.

 

We added a couple of wild card players who possibly also will make an impact.

 

In short the Twins haven't spent this kind of money in ages and it was refreshing to see that at least they are making some type of attempt to stay in the thick of things. I am excited for this season and believe we have a legitimate chance in moving forward in the playoffs and breaking our losing streak.

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I don’t understand mourning the loss of Raley. He was 40-man chaff in the Twins system. He doesn’t project favorably compared to others in the high minors and probably won’t displace Wade or Cave in front of him.

 

That’s the type of player you toss into a deal to get it done without too much consideration.

 

I can understand believing the Twins didn’t get the most return out of Raley by throwing him into the Maeda deal but Raley needed to be traded, and he needed to be traded relatively soon. With the looming number of guys to be placed on the 40-man next offseason, there isn’t space for a player like Raley on the Twins.

 

I can understand holding on to him for a deadline deal but no longer than that.

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The negativity regarding this off-season is a little confusing. The Twins have been more active this season than any previous season since when they picked up Lynn.

We added a high caliber 3rd baseman who not only helped our defense substantially but also can smash the ball.

We added a pitcher who isn't necessarily a Cy Young candidate but one that can still make an impact.

We added a couple of wild card players who possibly also will make an impact.

In short the Twins haven't spent this kind of money in ages and it was refreshing to see that at least they are making some type of attempt to stay in the thick of things. I am excited for this season and believe we have a legitimate chance in moving forward in the playoffs and breaking our losing streak.

 

I'm actually with you on this one. 

 

The offseason started out terrible. Many, myself included were ripping the Twins a new one. They have swung back around though and made some good adds. The Donaldson one was a huge addition. I will say though, that I am not all that excited about Maeda. I think he fills a need for them, but more for the next few years when the Twins are probably feeling they have a decent chance of not being able to retain some of our starting rotation. 

I still would have preffered they saved their bullets in order to bring in a higher ceiling starter, even if it took until the deadline. Who knows though? Maybe that is still their plan. If they are truly able to add a top of the line starter at the deadline, this would officially be the best player acquisition season in team history. I for one, would be willing to eat crow and would certainly feel like the prospect hoarding, cheap Twins are all but a distant memory. 

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The negativity regarding this off-season is a little confusing. The Twins have been more active this season than any previous season since when they picked up Lynn.

We added a high caliber 3rd baseman who not only helped our defense substantially but also can smash the ball.

We added a pitcher who isn't necessarily a Cy Young candidate but one that can still make an impact.

We added a couple of wild card players who possibly also will make an impact.

In short the Twins haven't spent this kind of money in ages and it was refreshing to see that at least they are making some type of attempt to stay in the thick of things. I am excited for this season and believe we have a legitimate chance in moving forward in the playoffs and breaking our losing streak.

 

this thread isn't about the whole off season, though. It's about a specific question........

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Agree, it should fund any deadline move. On the prospect, I'm hoping we have a list of A ball starting pitchers to scout.

 

I agree with this but the Twins are not to the point where they can't add payroll if a deal comes up, either now or trade deadline.

 

This is just a poor excuse to line their pockets with more cash with no intention of spending.

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I agree with this but the Twins are not to the point where they can't add payroll if a deal comes up, either now or trade deadline.

 

This is just a poor excuse to line their pockets with more cash with no intention of spending.

 

I've been pretty hard on their spending over the years.....but I"m not sure I agree here. They must be bumping up close to what they want to spend......I don't love this trade, but I understand how it can open up flexibility at the deadline (while still being win now).

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I don't understand the valuing the draft pick so high.

 

First, with 30 teams, why do we call it a 2nd round pick? It's a 3rd round pick. The 7th third round pick, to be precise.

 

Second, when do we realize the $4 million or $7 million in value from the pick? Have we factored in the time-value of money? I understand there is some value to the pick. But I'm not sure about the methodology any more than how different WAR calculations vary from making Maeda an All-Star to a solid #6 starter.

 

Finally, I'm the first guy to post about how the ownership should spend money. They have. This off-season is satisfactory to good, in my opinion. Getting $10 million back on this deal is fine by me. I'm happy with the "win now" trade without the extras, so why wouldn't I be okay with $10 million going our way, plus a low minors catcher, for Raley (who would never have played on our major league club, and is at least being returned to an organization who he knows and who knows him) and a draft pick that nobody really knows whether it will ever benefit the major league club.

 

This trade makes sense. And I'm glad we didn't end up trading with Boston.

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