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Take Two: Pending Physicals, Twins and Dodgers Agree to Trade


Nick Nelson
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Of course they have an idea. They have a ton of information and data that you and I don't. And their information lead them to make the deal. What you are insinuating is that you think they'll be wrong. We'll see.

 

They DONT have a ton of information. He was was out for a full year (like many SPs with TJ) and out for a couple of months for his first year above low A. He was dominant. He has 3 pitches. FB is plus plus, SL plus plus, and CH average. He is also going into his year 21 season. By comparison, Balazovic has a FB plus, SL plus and Xh average to plus. He may have a bit more command. He is about the same age, and also had TJ. He finished last year unhurt for most part. They know nothing more about Balazovic than Grays. I stand by this. We will regret it.

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Raley needs to be on the 40 and they may have needed to DFA him at some point this year. I hate to lose that pick.

 

67th pick trivia

 

Kurt Suzuki has the 6th most career WAR (B-R) and 20.3 and could pass Jordan Zimmerman for 5th overall.

 

The Twins drafted the 7th and 9th ranked players on the list in Roger Erickson (8.3 WAR) and Paul Abbott (4.6 WAR). They also drafted Dan Cey in this spot.

 

Rick Reuschel, Ron Guidry and Wally Joyner are the best of this group and Paul Abbott is the last of the group with any kind of career. Since the first draft in 1965 there have been three with 30+ WAR, three others in the 20s and another three between 1 and 10 career WAR. Chances are the 67th pick never has an impact even as much as Paul Abbott in the majors but I still hate to lose the pick.

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To each his own I guess, but was I really necessary to include a potential 2020 difference maker like Graterol? Was there even a chance they would’ve accepted Cavaco (or Rooker) + other prospects?? I mean, I thought the whole point of dealing Maeda was to shed his contract to stay under the luxury tax threshold, you’d think the Twins FO would’ve had more leverage in which prospects would be headed to Los Angeles.

 

My point is that if the Twins FO wanted to reasonably upgrade the rotation they didn’t need to trade Graterol. In fact, we could’ve done far better than Maeda if we were willing to deal Larnach.

The Dodgers would have to liquidate a half dozen players to get under the competitive balance threshold number. Maeda doesn’t move the needle in that regard, as the Dodgers are still angling to add over $40m in payroll with Betts and Price.
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Great trade. I’m fine with letting go a high risk, high reward, often injured, probable relief pitcher for a proven good starting pitcher on a favorable contract. The money coming our way would nearly completely offset the Maeda contract if we cut him tomorrow, but more likely, it keeps the door open for a trade deadline acquisition. Raley has upside, but he’s 25 years old and our 4th best corner OF/1B prospect.

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I'm not thrilled about the money, unless they deal at deadline. I suppose to opens up that possibility more, which has value. I'm just not sure it has pick 67 and Raley value. That's two years now they've sold picks for money.

 

But, if they don't believe that Gaterol is a starter, this still makes sense to do in some combination. Overall, I like the deal, just not sure I love the deal.

Kind of my thoughts as well. At the end of the day, the Twins are now a better team and that’s what really matters to me. How they get there is meh unless they do something stupid, which is certainly not the case here.
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It’s not that I think Maeda is a bad pitcher, he will definitely help us. However, how can we be truly playing for 2020 when we just gave a better team a better shot at winning the WS in 2020??

What makes team A better is not necessarily that same thing that will make team B better.

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I'm not thrilled about the money, unless they deal at deadline. I suppose to opens up that possibility more, which has value. I'm just not sure it has pick 67 and Raley value. That's two years now they've sold picks for money.

But, if they don't believe that Gaterol is a starter, this still makes sense to do in some combination. Overall, I like the deal, just not sure I love the deal.

My thoughts exactly.  Really don't like the #67 pick going to LA.  We saw what years of trading draft picks did to the Wild.  Although being aggressive in the International market can somewhat offset losing a high pick.

 

Is there any information on the second player the Twins are getting?  Is it fact that there will be a second player?

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So...you think this is final? Me thinks this never ends! :-0 (<< that's my face, turned sideways.)

 

I agree.  I was also pointing out how we acquired Raley from the Dodgers in the Dozier swap and now we send him back in this one.  Someday we can acquire Raley again and keep the cycle going.

 

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I wonder if the still unnamed lower-level prospect is on the Dodger 40-man roster, just like Raley was on ours.  Santana would be nice.

Dodgers had a full 40-man roster.  They brought in 2 from Boston (Betts/Price) and removed only one (Verdugo).  They also bring in 2 from us (Graterol/Raley) and removed only one (Maeda).  Understand the trade with LAA is off, so something has to give with the Dodger roster.

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My thoughts exactly.  Really don't like the #67 pick going to LA.  We saw what years of trading draft picks did to the Wild.  Although being aggressive in the International market can somewhat offset losing a high pick.

 

Is there any information on the second player the Twins are getting?  Is it fact that there will be a second player?

Losing a comp pick isn't a huge deal. It stings a little but that's the price to pay for acquiring pieces to improve the MLB team.

 

It's not as if they lost another legit prospect on top of Graterol, which is *always* worth more than a draft pick.

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Some have mentioned they do not like selling the compensation round pick.  Fangraph's valued last years 67th pick at 4.1 million. We get 10 million for this years. For me it matters what happens to the 10 million if I like this or not. Obviously we didn't need that to make current payroll as it was not a part of the first trade. But if we need that to make a deal at the trade deadline then I am fine with it.  If it is going to the bottom line then not so much.

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So by mid-May rotation is Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Pineda and Bailey...with Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak available at AAA.   Like it.

Injuries happen so probably not but that kind of depth is good to have in the rotation. The Twins probably won't get as lucky as they did with the 2019 rotation (until the Pineda suspension, anyway).

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My two cents worth:

 

I think the Dodgers improved their lot more in the revised trade.

 

The Dodgers are rich. They can afford the downside risk of Graterol. As ChrisKnutson said, this trade could be bring them World Series success in 2020 and a fantastic SP in later seasons.

 

Graterol is 21 years old. He was throwing hard with a crisp slider at the end of last season. His concerns are long term. The problem is either genetic or something is fraying in his shoulder. Neither is a death sentence as a starting pitcher. It's a risk. One that the Dodgers can handle.

 

They Dodgers threw $10M at the Twins with nothing more than a sigh. They picked up Raley as depth and a draft pick worth less than $5M. They traded Jeter Downs, a top 100 prospect who might end up at 2B. They kept Graterol, a pitcher ranked in Driveline's current Top 10 list of "stuff". 

 

The Twins did well too.

 

Maeda is a solid #3 pitcher who may be better as a full-time starter. His ERA was 3.94 for the past two years in 279 IP. He made 46 starts and had 30 relief appearances. He's durable and flexible. He's posted 4.9 WAR while being shuttled between starts and the pen. Maeda might be the lowest financial-risk pitcher in the majors and he's under control for four years.

 

The Twins traded from a 2020 RP surplus to meet a current SP need. Raley is 4th in line as a Twins corner OF prospect. Graterol may end up great but he was only going to be a RP in 2020, no matter how his career moves in the future. They got $10M to boot.

 

I like it.

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I`m sure LA & Boston is very happy, way to go FO! Boston saved $ on payrole & doesn`t have to pay luxury tax, w/ the $ they saved maybe they get Betts next year when he`s FA. LA has a chance to win maybe this year WS & they don`t have to deal w/ Maeda case. But hey we got Maeda & maybe Wes can work his magic & turn him into Johan Santana to help compensate for what we had to give up. If he can`t & Maeda remains a terrible 3x the order pitcher we can turn around & trade him for a top 100 ML ready fireballer & 2 other prospect.

What are we going to w/ our logjam of OF prospects, that needed to be addressed 1st.

I feel sorry how Gaterol was treated. put into BP because we couldn`t waste any of his pitching in the minors. Now put him thru hell because he didn`t fit in the plans & let him go (like Ortiz) & then put him in limbo (FO should have pulled the plug right away & stuck to their guns)

Via con Dios mi amigo,sad to see you go, we`ll miss you & wish you well. The way thing are going Berrios will be right behind you

Sorry to let off steam but I needed to get this off my chest. I`ll say no more. Only to say I told you so later

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While we may win the division with this move (maybe even win a postseason series), I’m starting to feel as though we may have bolstered the Dodger’s 2020 WS chances even more (something we’re trying to accomplish too, right?). Taking Jansen’s decline and Kelly’s inconsistencies into consideration, the addition of Graterol could play a huge role in a potential Dodgers WS win.

I don't think this has any relevance to making the trade.  Yes Graterol could be a big piece of the Dodgers pen but you don't pass on improving your teams weakness because the move might help a team that might win the NLCS. 

 

Maeda was also a major part of their playoff bullpen because of how dominate he is vs righties, so esentially Graterol fills his role in the playoffs assuming all goes well.

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I`m sure LA & Boston is very happy, way to go FO! Boston saved $ on payrole & doesn`t have to pay luxury tax, w/ the $ they saved maybe they get Betts next year when he`s FA. LA has a chance to win maybe this year WS & they don`t have to deal w/ Maeda case. But hey we got Maeda & maybe Wes can work his magic & turn him into Johan Santana to help compensate for what we had to give up. If he can`t & Maeda remains a terrible 3x the order pitcher we can turn around & trade him for a top 100 ML ready fireballer & 2 other prospect.

What are we going to w/ our logjam of OF prospects, that needed to be addressed 1st.

I feel sorry how Gaterol was treated. put into BP because we couldn`t waste any of his pitching in the minors. Now put him thru hell because he didn`t fit in the plans & let him go (like Ortiz) & then put him in limbo (FO should have pulled the plug right away & stuck to their guns)

Via con Dios mi amigo,sad to see you go, we`ll miss you & wish you well. The way thing are going Berrios will be right behind you

Sorry to let off steam but I needed to get this off my chest. I`ll say no more. Only to say I told you so later

All I ask is that if you’re this convinced you’re right and want to say I told you so, be sure to check back in with cap in hand if you’re wrong.
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I think in 2020 Maeda is the better player. 2021 I think Graterol and Maeda are likely to be similar in value and after that I think Graterol will be the better player. I don’t understand people’s optimism in a mediocre pitcher whose workload will need to increase and will be turning 35 before the contract is up. I get his contract has value but you know what has more value? Producing positive WAR in years 3-6 of Graterol contract. Additionally another extension is off the table unless someone is interested in locking up Maeda into his late 30s. 
 

Personally, unless Graterol medical are so poor that he is unlikely to hold up as even a reliever, I think the Twins made a poor decision today. Ultimately this is a consequence of not signing a top of the rotation starter this offseason. 

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To be clear, like everyone I was enamored with Graterol's arm and his potential. Even as a power RP, he would have been nice to have around.

 

There are 3 possible outcomes with Graterol:

 

1] He gets stretched out, eventually, and becomes a SP.

 

2] He fits better and stays in the bullpen.

 

3] Arm/shoulder injuries continue to flare up and he washes out.

 

I doubt #3 happens. But with EITHER #1 or #2 happening, there is no guarantee how good he will be in either role. I wish him the best. But nobody KNOWS what his future holds, they can only speculate.

 

But if you're going to acquire an addition for the club, you have to trade a talent to receive talent back. Holding on to some need or want to say "I told you so" 2 or 3 years from now still has no influence over improving the club for TODAY and a better shot at winning.

 

Just kinda hate losing both the pick and Raley.

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I think in 2020 Maeda is the better player. 2021 I think Graterol and Maeda are likely to be similar in value and after that I think Graterol will be the better player. I don’t understand people’s optimism in a mediocre pitcher whose workload will need to increase and will be turning 35 before the contract is up. I get his contract has value but you know what has more value? Producing positive WAR in years 3-6 of Graterol contract. Additionally another extension is off the table unless someone is interested in locking up Maeda into his late 30s. 
 

Personally, unless Graterol medical are so poor that he is unlikely to hold up as even a reliever, I think the Twins made a poor decision today. Ultimately this is a consequence of not signing a top of the rotation starter this offseason. 

Honestly, you're undervaluing the bolded and wildly overvaluing the rest.

 

The Twins are trying to win today. Not tomorrow, not in 2023, but today. They have a deep farm system that can certainly weather the loss of what is likely a reliever, even a very good reliever.

 

There comes a time where you stop worrying about what happens four years from now and start thinking about how to field a legitimately competitive team today. The Twins did that and while I don't *love* the deal, I can't find a real reason to complain about it, either.

 

As of right now, the 2020 Twins are a better team than they were five hours ago and they didn't really impact the farm system in a meaningful way to do so.

 

We can't have the cake and eat it, too. A team that wants to improve needs to give up assets to do so. The Twins did both.

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Honestly, you're undervaluing the bolded and wildly overvaluing the rest.

 

The Twins are trying to win today. Not tomorrow, not in 2023, but today. They have a deep farm system that can certainly weather the loss of what is likely a reliever, even a very good reliever.

 

There comes a time where you stop worrying about what happens four years from now and start thinking about how to field a legitimately competitive team today. The Twins did that and while I don't *love* the deal, I can't find a real reason to complain about it, either.

 

As of right now, the 2020 Twins are a better team than they were five hours ago and they didn't really impact the farm system in a meaningful way to do so.

 

We can't have the cake and eat it, too. A team that wants to improve needs to give up assets to do so. The Twins did both.

Mid rotation starters are not “win now” moves, no matter how you try to spin it. If that’s what you wanted the Twins needed to dangle more than an apparently injured Graterol. True win now moves bring back premium, season changing talent. See Dodgers, Betts if you’re curious. No, this trade is simply the Twins saying they prefer Maeda to Graterol. I think that is short sighted and not likely to end well. 

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I think in 2020 Maeda is the better player. 2021 I think Graterol and Maeda are likely to be similar in value and after that I think Graterol will be the better player. I don’t understand people’s optimism in a mediocre pitcher whose workload will need to increase and will be turning 35 before the contract is up. I get his contract has value but you know what has more value? Producing positive WAR in years 3-6 of Graterol contract. Additionally another extension is off the table unless someone is interested in locking up Maeda into his late 30s. 

 

Personally, unless Graterol medical are so poor that he is unlikely to hold up as even a reliever, I think the Twins made a poor decision today. Ultimately this is a consequence of not signing a top of the rotation starter this offseason.

 

Graterol is going to have the last laugh (likely this year). The twins get an aged 32 year old #3-#4 whose contract won’t look so good in 2021. The Yankees added Cole, and a full year of their version of Berrios. Twins add Maeda, Bailey (yuck), a broken down 40 YO, in Hill that we hope has a few bullets left. Even if JD hits an HR in every game, Twins likely get swept in 4 with this SP staff. Chacín is also not worth mentioning. If you are going to trade our #1 ranked SP from only 6 months ago, at least add Larnach and go for a real difference maker.

 

 

 

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But if the Twins FO thought he was going to be a top starter they wouldn't have offered him in this deal, right...for a good-not-great starter? We can wish all we want, but it's pretty difficult now to suggest the Twins see Graterol as being a starter. Ever. Of course, that doesn't mean they'll be proven correct. We'll see.

I agree with that assessment. Not sure what happened to the Twins' sky-high hopes for Brusdar, but that bright and shiny optimistic glow seemed to suddenly dim in recent months.

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All I ask is that if you’re this convinced you’re right and want to say I told you so, be sure to check back in with cap in hand if you’re wrong.

 Usually what I see & my gut feeling are pretty true. But 2 or 3 years down the road, When Berrios becomes a FA & Graterol have time to stretch out & develop & we`ll see where Maeda is or even after this year, we`ll see if Wes can develop Maeda into a true starter. If I`m a little wrong I`ll admit.

  My assumption (not based on anything just my opinion) about Donaldson signing w/ the Braves was wrong & I admitted it. 

  I`m a passionate Twins fan, I won`t agree w/ everything that FO does, when I don`t I`ll give my side hoping that FO get a different perspective in what they are doing. By the way I`m not against the Maeda trade, I`m against trading a precious top 100 ML ready pitching prospect for him. We have abundance of positional players possibilities we need to use but didn`t. Maeda used as LA did, limiting his innings SP/RP, he`ll be a great asset

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I still like the trade, even in this revised form. As Brock and others have said, the Twins are a stronger team now than they were a month ago. But ... I still hate to see Brusdar go. When I saw the trade announced today, my first thought was that a lot of people on this board would moan about losing Luke Raley as part of the package. Seems like many had high hopes for him. But as noted by others already, we have other very good prospects that can play a similar position so I'm not too sad about losing him. I'm more annoyed that we had to give up a fairly high draft pick to get the deal done. But hey, I like our starting rotation a lot more now.

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