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What Now? Trade Rosario for starting pitching? Trade Kirilloff?


jorgenswest
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Can the Twins trade Rosario and sufficiently address a spot in the rotation? I went over to baseball trade values and sorted starters finding a group of starters that is within 10% of Rosario. These are Rosario's comps according to baseball trade values.

 

11.5 Zach Eflin

11.1 Anthony DeSclafani

11.1 Trevor Williams

10.8 Jordan Yamamoto

10.5 Rosario

10.4 Eric Lauer

10.0 Dylan Bundy

  9.6 Brad Peacock

 

Perhaps it would be better to look at the group within about 10% of Kirilloff.

 

46.8 Kyle Hendricks

44.0 Dylan Cease

43.9 Frankie Montas

43.5 Kirilloff

42.5 Sonny Gray

42.2 Lance McCullers Jr.

38.2 Joey Lucchesi

37.7 Matthew Boyd

37.7 Jon Gray

 

What do you think? Maybe they can take someone in the range of the top group and build them into a playoff caliber pitcher. Maybe they need to part with Kirilloff and get a more established starter. I am partial to Lucchesi here. He was on our little league team ages 9 to 12.

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I get all of these trade value sites, etc. But it really seems odd to me that a guy that is still young and has performed as well as he has in the league is rated that much lower(4 times in fact) than a kid that hasn't proven a thing yet. 

 

If that's the value Kiriloff has, then I would be shopping him right now. Add in someone and get into the next tier of guys, or just take that Gray dude off Colorado's hands. 

 

 

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I would guess that Rosario's salary, two years of control and the ability to sign a similar player at a similar salary like Dickerson or Garcia in free agency cuts into his trade value.

 

He is certainly a valuable player as is a guy like DeSclafini with his 3.89 ERA and 167 K's and 44 BBs in 166.2 innings but with just two years of control.

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I don't see most of these guys as being available even. Boyd is if Avila gets an overpay. And from a Central rival he'll likely ask for more even. Luchessi, maybe SD would let him go if they could get rid of Wil Meyers. I'd bet they still want a prospect back besides. Most of the players you list are for competing teams and players they will be relying upon themselves.

 

We are behind the eight ball. I'd suggest signing both Walker and Wood if we can. A name I threw out in a thread last night might be someone we could pry loose. Tousi Toussaint from Atlanta. He's buried in their depth charts and maybe for someone well regarded in A ball they might would let him go.

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I don't see most of these guys as being available even. Boyd is if Avila gets an overpay. And from a Central rival he'll likely ask for more even. Luchessi, maybe SD would let him go if they could get rid of Wil Meyers. I'd bet they still want a prospect back besides. Most of the players you list are for competing teams and players they will be relying upon themselves.

 

We are behind the eight ball. I'd suggest signing both Walker and Wood if we can. A name I threw out in a thread last night might be someone we could pry loose. Tousi Toussaint from Atlanta. He's buried in their depth charts and maybe for someone well regarded in A ball they might would let him go.

 

Good thought on Toussaint. He is a close comp in value to Rosario at 11.7 and is listed at medium availability. I should have added the availability status of others according to baseball trade values.

 

In the Kirilloff group Lucchesi, Boyd and Jon Gray have medium availability. The rest are low. In the Rosario group Peacock and Yamamota are listed low.

 

None of these pitchers is so untouchable that they are unavailable. They can be had at the right price. Every year teams pay more in free agency for starting pitching. The Twins will need to pay more in a trade for starting pitching. It might take Kirilloff plus Enlow plus another but they have the prospect capital and they can find a team that will deal. 

 

It is time to make a deal. With their prospect capital it might have been the best route from the beginning.

 

 

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Here we go again.  So I will state my position again. 

 

All this trade value garbage is exactly that, garbage.  Should the Twins decide to trade Rosario, he will be worth what our FO and some other FO deem apprpriate, not what some whomever decided to create a formula for.  Also don't care about all the new numbers from which Eddie doesn't do that well, rather, that Eddie stepped up to the plate last year and drove in what was it, 109 runs.  And anyone can say that other players, X, Y, or Z, would have also done that in his position.  The truth is they weren't and didn't.  That's a hell of a lot of value.  

 

Fortunately, it sounds like our FO places a lot of value in Eddie and will be reluctant to trade him.  And if they do, I expect it is very likely the return is a heck of a lot more than what these formulas are tossing out there.

 

 

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Here we go again.  So I will state my position again. 

 

All this trade value garbage is exactly that, garbage...

 

Note that this is quite a departure from the tone of the original post; instead, which group of pitchers do you think Rosario compares well with?
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Player valuations are as much science as art nowadays. I’m not sure how much I trust this trend to quantify ballplayers, either.

 

The pitchers Kirilloff compares to above have shown flashes of promise or even brilliance in the major leagues. I don’t think Kirilloff (or Larnach) is a 1:1 trade with many—or any—of those pitchers. I personally think McCullers is a future Cy Young vote-getter.

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I’m tired of checking these pages to see if the Twins made any moves to get pitching. Different year, same old story- organization says they are trying to get an ace- but other clubs step up (White Sox) and get the job done. Great season last year when all of the touted prospects came through, but I’m afraid next year starts a steady decline into oblivion. But I guess that’s what you expect from a middle of the road ball club............

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Here we go again.  So I will state my position again. 

 

All this trade value garbage is exactly that, garbage.  Should the Twins decide to trade Rosario, he will be worth what our FO and some other FO deem apprpriate, not what some whomever decided to create a formula for.  Also don't care about all the new numbers from which Eddie doesn't do that well, rather, that Eddie stepped up to the plate last year and drove in what was it, 109 runs.  And anyone can say that other players, X, Y, or Z, would have also done that in his position.  The truth is they weren't and didn't.  That's a hell of a lot of value.  

 

Fortunately, it sounds like our FO places a lot of value in Eddie and will be reluctant to trade him.  And if they do, I expect it is very likely the return is a heck of a lot more than what these formulas are tossing out there.

 

A better hitting OF than Rosario was traded this off season, and did not net much.

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Interesting article on mlb.com listed 6 pitchers who could be available.  Listed:

Archer (Hi NL ERA coming to AL?  No, thank you)

Clevinger (yes, please)

Price (Sox better swallow a boat load of salary)

Robbie Ray (Prefer him to Archer)

Boyd  (On board)

Jon Gray  (Sure, why not)

Clevinger is the best pitcher on this list, but Cleveland's not doing that unless they absolutely rob us blind.

 

I also don't think the Rockies will trade Gray unless we overpay significantly. Same with Boyd and Ray to a lesser extent.

 

Realistically, taking on Price and paying $25/15/15 of his salary with the Redsox picking up $41 million is the only realistic option unless you can convince yourself to get excited about Archer.

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If the Braves fail to sign Donaldson, and especially if the Twins do sign JD, are they interested in Sano? What do people think is available from Atlanta for Sano?

 

Sano would have a similar trade value as Rosario. They both are in arbitration and have two years of control. Sano's number at baseball trade values is 1 little less at 8.1 but he has not been nearly as consistent as Rosario the last three years. Mike Foltynewicz has the same value as Sano.

 

 

Not only should Rosario and Kirilloff be available so should Lewis. The best part is outfield is a position of surplus so it makes even more sense

 

I agree that Lewis should be available and it might take him instead of Kirilloff to really help the rotation. Baseball trade values has him at 54.1 and he would have to lead any kind of package that brings back a Syndegaard(77) or Clevinger(82.5). It might take Lewis plus Buxton or Lewis plus Graterol to open that door.

 

I wouldn't advocate for either of those trades.

 

On Price and Archer...

 

David Price has the lowest trade value among starters at -60. He certainly is a valuable pitcher but the Red Sox are going to need to pay down some salary and still get little in return for prospects. 

 

Chris Archer at 3.0 might be an interesting pitcher to take a chance on for Nick Gordon (4.6). According to baseball trade values Chris Archer has similar trade value to the recently dealt Corey Kluber (2.7).

 

I appreciate all of those that can put aside the front office discussion for this space and speculate trades for a starter. 

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The trade values are a bit coarse. Yamamoto for example only pitched for part of the season and has 4+ years of control to Eddie's 2. He's a promising young pitcher that would take a good prospect if you wanted to base a trade around Eddie.

 

Trading Kirilloff may be one option for a rotation improvement but a lot of those guys listed probably aren't available and others like Dylan Cease would be a move I wouldn't like very much. I think the front office will get a lot more creative when looking for a match.

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Interesting article on mlb.com listed 6 pitchers who could be available. Listed:

Archer (Hi NL ERA coming to AL? No, thank you)

Clevinger (yes, please)

Price (Sox better swallow a boat load of salary)

Robbie Ray (Prefer him to Archer)

Boyd (On board)

Jon Gray (Sure, why not)

I think Archer is an interesting candidate for a trade. He had a bad year, but from a quick glance at his Fangraphs page it looks like his failure was driven by unusually high walk and homer rates. His K% was around 27, which is pretty dang good. I think if the ball is de-juiced and his walk rate normalizes, he could be a really nice addition for a pretty low prospect cost.

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Eddie Rosario will provide more to the Twins this season than he could bring back in a trade.  The only way I see Eddie being dealt is if the Twins are out of the race near the deadline and he's dealt to a contending team looking for some pop, which I don't see happening.

 

Edit: Contending teams just don't trade guys in their prime like Eddie with no suitable replacement.  I know Eddie is not the perfect player, but that's 28 2B, 32 HR, 109 RBI to go with an .800 OPS.  Kirillof had a .756 OPS in 94 AA games last season for reference point.

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Eddie Rosario will provide more to the Twins this season than he could bring back in a trade. The only way I see Eddie being dealt is if the Twins are out of the race near the deadline and he's dealt to a contending team looking for some pop, which I don't see happening.

Agreed.

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Maybe the Twins should just sign Alex Wood and go with what they have if there isn't any way to trade without losing Rosario, Buxton, Sano, etc. I believe Rosario (with faults) is under valued by many posters.

Is Atlanta tired of Toussaint? A trade of Gordon and Severino for TT?

Would Miami trade Alcantara for Gordon, Cave, and Duran? Would the Twins?

I'm not thinking that Price is attractive to the Twins if they weren't willing to go overboard on this winter's free agents, unless Boston eats half his contract and that isn't likely either. 

The trade simulator is a little wonky. An Alex Kirilloff for Freddie Freeman trade looks like a favorable match for Atlanta but that would never happen. Playing around with that is somewhat entertaining but not particularly useful as a credible exercise.

There are still two plus months until games, but Thorpe/Dobnak/Graterol/etc are hoping for a chance to start.

 

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All this trade value garbage is exactly that, garbage. 

I don't think anyone is claiming they are precise, definitive numbers, but most real-life trades have corresponded pretty well with the values on baseballtradevalues.com. They've even published some analysis about that:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-tracker-winter-meeting-edition/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-deadline-post-mortem-what-worked-what-didnt/

 

 

Also don't care about all the new numbers from which Eddie doesn't do that well, rather, that Eddie stepped up to the plate last year and drove in what was it, 109 runs.  And anyone can say that other players, X, Y, or Z, would have also done that in his position.  The truth is they weren't and didn't.  That's a hell of a lot of value.  

 

Is OPS a "new number"? It's just OBP plus SLG. Rosario had a .805 OPS last season; the combined performance of every MLB left fielder last season resulted in a .789 OPS.

 

Do you think that the Marlins would trade for Rosario with the expectation that he will drive in 109 runs for them in 2020? Keep in mind the difference between the Twins and Marlins offenses (2nd most runs scored vs. 2nd fewest). Keep in mind that Rosario himself had never even eclipsed 78 RBI in any of his 4 seasons prior to 2019. Also note that the Marlins already have a LF (Harold Ramirez) who just posted a slightly better OPS at age 24 than Rosario did at the same age, for about 6% of the Rosario's projected 2020 salary.

 

Do you think the Marlins or any other team will ignore those factors when deciding upon Rosario's trade value? If not, I don't know why you'd expect baseballtradevalues.com to ignore them.

 

FWIW, I don't expect Rosario to be traded, but I'm not sure it's because the Twins FO values him more than baseballtradevalues.com (because even then, if the Twins were really shopping him, you'd also have to conclude no other team shared their high valuation, so who's right?). I suspect it will simply be because we're not really sellers, and have a specific return in mind, and limited potential trade partners interested in Rosario's specific position/control/salary.

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I don’t think they trade Rosario unless they sign a significant bat and feel Larnach or Kirilloff or Rooker are near ready.

 

They do have three tiers of prospect depth at corner OF in Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker. It is from that depth that they are best positioned to make a trade. It is also that depth where they are best positioned to fill the void of a traded starter.

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If the Braves fail to sign Donaldson, and especially if the Twins do sign JD, are they interested in Sano? What do people think is available from Atlanta for Sano?

We don't want to trade Sano even if we get Donaldson. Despite his strong finish, he still won't fetch fair value in the trade market and we'd be right back to looking for another corner infielder.

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Sano would have a similar trade value as Rosario. They both are in arbitration and have two years of control. Sano's number at baseball trade values is 1 little less at 8.1 but he has not been nearly as consistent as Rosario the last three years. Mike Foltynewicz has the same value as Sano.

 

 

I agree that Lewis should be available and it might take him instead of Kirilloff to really help the rotation. Baseball trade values has him at 54.1 and he would have to lead any kind of package that brings back a Syndegaard(77) or Clevinger(82.5). It might take Lewis plus Buxton or Lewis plus Graterol to open that door.

 

I wouldn't advocate for either of those trades.

 

On Price and Archer...

 

David Price has the lowest trade value among starters at -60. He certainly is a valuable pitcher but the Red Sox are going to need to pay down some salary and still get little in return for prospects. 

 

Chris Archer at 3.0 might be an interesting pitcher to take a chance on for Nick Gordon (4.6). According to baseball trade values Chris Archer has similar trade value to the recently dealt Corey Kluber (2.7).

 

I appreciate all of those that can put aside the front office discussion for this space and speculate trades for a starter. 

For Clevinger I was going to say before I ever read your post that it would take Lewis and Graterol. But I'd guess also one of Larnach and Kirriloff. The Tribe is not throwing in the 2020 towel w/o an overpay. So really imho any of us dreaming about Clevinger is a waste of our time writing about it and reading about it. If I'm Cle I'm not trading him to the Twins w/o taking a big bite out of our future.

 

Archer? I'd agree to a trade for Gordon. Likely have to throw in another wild card to get it done though. I wouldn't mind Archer as a bounceback player. He's probably even a likely one to do so. But I still want to see someone who can slide into the #3 slot in addition to him.

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