Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

MadBaum to the D-Backs


howeda7
 Share

 

They made multiple trades at the deadline. The Dyson deal didn’t work out, but Romo put up a lot of quality, important innings down the stretch. I feel like you aren’t actually interested in discussing this.

 

No point, I'm not in the mood to drink the Kool-Aid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I'm sure somewhere there was a metric that said Verlander was a shell of himself and only a fool would acquire that contract.

 

Just so you are aware, yes, some of the very same posters dismissing Bumgarner in this thread also dismissed Verlander.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Why would you give Garret Cole 9 years. FA starters almost always require you to risk bad years at the end of them. That's just the way it is.

 

If you have a window to win, you have to be willing to risk a bad contract or two 5-6 years from now. Otherwise you will never, ever play in FA and you will forever be the Little Team that could who gets steamrolled by the Yankees in the 1st round.

 

You do realize that there have been two teams at the Twins revenue level that have signed SPs to 5+ year deals in past 25 years, right? Are they all just accepting no chance of advancing in the playoffs?

 

Those two deals were AZ when they signed their big TV contract and Colorado when they signed Mike Hampton to an 8 year deal and traded him to years later. He produced somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 WAR total for his 8 years. There were actually a couple other 5 year contracts but they were low AAV deals.

 

I have made this point several times. It's hard fact but I guess if you want to make this type of statement you have to be good at ignoring history / facts.

 

The teams that accept this risk of multiple years of no production do so because they generally have enough incremental revenue to pay 2 or 3 or 4 of those players and still have payroll capacity equal to the twins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

There is no indication that MadBaum said he wouldn't play here.

 

Does he get us passed the Yankees alone? No. Let's say Berrios steps up into an ace. He wins game 1. Now we roll out MadBaum, Odo and Pineda in games 2-4. Does that give us a better shot to win 2 more than Odo, Pineda and Smeltzer? Yes.

Every reporter out there reported that he wanted to stay on the West Coast and in the National League. His camp disputed it in an attempt to raise his price. It clearly didn't work that well as he stayed on the west coast and in the National League for less than people expected. He didn't want to be here.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Not when you're a multimillionaire already. Is that your sales pitch to MadBum? You don't want to be here, but sometimes you have to do crappy things you don't want to do so we'll see you in MN this year. Sounds effective.

 This isn't the same as Joe Blow. His family doesn't have to move. He would be in Minneapolis 3 months per year and on the road 3 months per year. His family can live wherever they want. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not exactly someone saying MadBum didn't want to play in MN, but a Giants beat writer saying he DID want to play in Arizona.

 

 

And for all those who say who cares about years 4 and 5 of a big contract:

 

I seem to remember everybody on here screaming at the top of their lungs about how Joe Mauer's contract was an albatross the last few years. And he was a hometown hero.

 

I can only imagine the outrage if the Twins would have had a big contract weighing them down in 3 years as Berrios, Buxton, Sano, etc really started to get expensive.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

You do realize that there have been two teams at the Twins revenue level that have signed SPs to 5+ year deals in past 25 years, right? Are they all just accepting no chance of advancing in the playoffs?

 

Those two deals were AZ when they signed their big TV contract and Colorado when they signed Mike Hampton to an 8 year deal and traded him to years later. He produced somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 WAR total for his 8 years. There were actually a couple other 5 year contracts but they were low AAV deals.

 

I have made this point several times. It's hard fact but I guess if you want to make this type of statement you have to be good at ignoring history / facts.

 

The teams that accept this risk of multiple years of no production do so because they generally have enough incremental revenue to pay 2 or 3 or 4 of those players and still have payroll capacity equal to the twins.

I'm not sure how you're defining revenue level, but the idea that we can't compete with the White Sox and Tigers in FA is ridiculous. If what you're saying is true, why did we offer $100 to Darvish? Why did we offer $100 million to Wheeler? Can we play in FA or can't we?

 

The fact that Ervin Santana is still the biggest FA contract we've ever given is pretty pathetic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 This isn't the same as Joe Blow. His family doesn't have to move. He would be in Minneapolis 3 months per year and on the road 3 months per year. His family can live wherever they want. 

Who said anything about his family? He is a human being with free will in a free market. He gets to choose where he wants to go. I'm sure the Twins made the same sort of pitch to him, but he wanted to stay on the west coast and in the national league. If you're offered a job in or around the place you want to live that meets your desired job description do you pass it up for a similar job that doesn't quite fit your desired job description and is in a place you have no desire to live for an extra 15-20% in pay? I'd guess not and I'd guess most people wouldn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Who said anything about his family? He is a human being with free will in a free market. He gets to choose where he wants to go. I'm sure the Twins made the same sort of pitch to him, but he wanted to stay on the west coast and in the national league. If you're offered a job in or around the place you want to live that meets your desired job description do you pass it up for a similar job that doesn't quite fit your desired job description and is in a place you have no desire to live for an extra 15-20% in pay? I'd guess not and I'd guess most people wouldn't.

If it's true he absolutely wouldn't play here, then Falvey shouldn't have diddled around until he was about the only option left. I guess we'll go big at Ryu and Kuechel. But, I bet they don't want to play here either. No one will take the Twins $$. It's no good. But they tried and tried. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I'm not sure how you're defining revenue level, but the idea that we can't compete with the White Sox and Tigers in FA is ridiculous. If what you're saying is true, why did we offer $100 to Darvish? Why did we offer $100 million to Wheeler? Can we play in FA or can't we?

 

The fact that Ervin Santana is still the biggest FA contract we've ever given is pretty pathetic.

Are the white sox and tigers your goal for the Twins? You want to be the Tigers right now? I mean they signed some real big contracts and that's fun right? Its fun to have a future hall of famer on your team while you lose 100 games. They aren't winning world series either. The Twins can play in FA in a smart way. They can't afford to have bad contracts. They can't afford to have the last 2 or 3 years of a deal be terrible. Not if they want to compete on a regular basis. If you just want the next 2 years to be all or nothing and are then ok with them losing the majority of their homegrown talent and being really bad again ok. But my guess is you'd then be complaining that the Twins never spend to keep their homegrown guys. There's a budget that they have to stay in. It's easy to spend other people's money, but the fact of the matter is the FO has been given a budget and need to stay within it. Blowing up future budgets for a 1 or 2 year run is a real bold move.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

If it's true he absolutely wouldn't play here, then Falvey shouldn't have diddled around until he was about the only option left. I guess we'll go big at Ryu and Kuechel. But, I bet they don't want to play here either. No one will take the Twins $$. It's no good. But they tried and tried. 

They didn't diddle around. They threw a huge contract at Wheeler. They've had trade talks with multiple teams. They've been talking to Ryu, Kuechel, and Donaldson's agents. They did their due diligence and tried to see if they could convince him. People will take their money, but the idea that it's smart to spend stupid money will never make sense. If somebody gets similar money to play in a place they want to be they will go there. The Twins paying more than they should to get players is a real good way to be the Tigers. Whole bunch of big name old dudes getting paid a ton and winning very little.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Are the white sox and tigers your goal for the Twins? You want to be the Tigers right now? I mean they signed some real big contracts and that's fun right? Its fun to have a future hall of famer on your team while you lose 100 games. They aren't winning world series either. The Twins can play in FA in a smart way. They can't afford to have bad contracts. They can't afford to have the last 2 or 3 years of a deal be terrible. Not if they want to compete on a regular basis. If you just want the next 2 years to be all or nothing and are then ok with them losing the majority of their homegrown talent and being really bad again ok. But my guess is you'd then be complaining that the Twins never spend to keep their homegrown guys. There's a budget that they have to stay in. It's easy to spend other people's money, but the fact of the matter is the FO has been given a budget and need to stay within it. Blowing up future budgets for a 1 or 2 year run is a real bold move.

Signing one starter does not "blow up future budgets". Yes you do have to pick your windows and go for it. The Rays are a fun franchise. So are the A's. They've also won zero World Series in the last 25 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

The only thing lamer than the "he wouldn't play here" excuse is the "Yeah well every other team passed on him too" excuse. That can literally apply to every FA ever. Give me a break.

 

It's not an "excuse," it's just shows the reality of the situation. No one wanted to pay Bumgarner $100 million. If you think that was a good idea, that means you think you are better at valuing free agents than at least 29 MLB front offices.

 

I personally am skeptical that's the case, especially since you openly deride any attempt at actually figuring out how much a player is worth.

 

The far more likely scenario, or to be frank, the truth, is that they are right, and you're not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry, hyperlink didn't copy but update on MLBtraderumors has link to Giants beat writer saying he predicted Diamondbacks at start of offseason.

 

I'm guessing he would know more about MadBum's mindset than any of us.

I don’t really believe the Wheeler cover story, but for this Bumgarner background I think there might be something to it. Part of the reason why I liked an offer of fewer years and higher AAV for Bumgarner. It’s just too bad the Twins didn’t make a competitive offer to either of them.

 

Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I think there are a lot of baseball people that do not believe he is an "impact arm" going forward. As badly as we need pitching, I think I would put the money in Donaldson before Bumgarner. Of course, your observation given the Dodgers payroll capacity is a good indication of what Theo thinks.

 

What does this mean for the Ryu market? 

5/85 for madbum, 17mil AAV on a longer deal. A lot of teams have dumped their loads. So for Ryu I'm guessing at this point 3/54  for an 18mil AAV to one of the LA teams. I'd guess the Twins would have to pay a premium to lure him away from Cali, so maybe 3/60-62 might get him if he's interested in us at all.

 

I still would not go over 3 years for Ryu with his mileage.

 

I believe that Donaldson goes to Washington. They lost Rendon after having lost Harper last season. So they would be most desperate for JD. The Twins, LAA and CWS would be the most needy of Ryu, though Toronto sounds like a potential suitor as well.

Edited by sweetmusicviola16
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

You could make this argument against ever spending $$ on FA pitching. It's expensive and often it doesn't work out. But we're never going to beat the Yankees with a rotation that has Lewis Thorpe, Smeltzer and Dobnak in it. 

I doubt the Minnesota Twins will EVER beat the New York Yankees, period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So the plan is either hope that Berrios can some how become an ace, or wait for Graterol, Balazovic, or Duran to eventually to become the ace of the staff. Given the Twins FO’s inability to “think out side the box” to acquire an ace I’m not holding my breath Flavine can get the starter they need.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

That leaves one guy that anyone here would have said is impact before the off season started. At least in free agency. I predicted Ryu earlier, and continue to hope.

I am actually more optimistic mike than I have been all off season that we get Ryu. As I mentioned many teams have shot big loads. Even the other teams that have the biggest needs, LAA and CWS. The Twins haven't made a big expenditure yet other than Odo. I think we have the advantages at this point. The exception would be if LAD really wants him back. But they lost out on Cole and Stras and imo they are gearing up for a run at Mookie Betts next season. Ryu still won't come cheap but I feel we might get him. 3/60

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

They didn't diddle around. They threw a huge contract at Wheeler. They've had trade talks with multiple teams. They've been talking to Ryu, Kuechel, and Donaldson's agents. They did their due diligence and tried to see if they could convince him. People will take their money, but the idea that it's smart to spend stupid money will never make sense. If somebody gets similar money to play in a place they want to be they will go there. The Twins paying more than they should to get players is a real good way to be the Tigers. Whole bunch of big name old dudes getting paid a ton and winning very little.

 

Just so happens someone wrote an article about the the effectiveness of the Tigers free agent signings.

 

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2017/4/26/15432050/detroit-tigers-free-agent-signings-from-the-last-10-years-oof

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

It's not an "excuse," it's just shows the reality of the situation. No one wanted to pay Bumgarner $100 million. If you think that was a good idea, that means you think you are better at valuing free agents than at least 29 MLB front offices.

That's not really the case, of course. Not every team is in the Twins same position, so their decision to not offer $100 mil to Bumgarner isn't remotely equivalent. Most obviously, the Yankees, Nationals, and Phillies may have thought he was worth $100 mil but they're not buying another starter. You could probably put the Mets in that group too. Then there tons of teams who aren't really in a buying position right now -- Orioles, Tigers, Marlins, Royals, etc., but even Boston, Cubs, and others.

 

Obviously, the market as it is, 5/85 is his market value by definition, but 5/100 wouldn't necessarily have been "wrong" or bad talent evaluation just because 29 other GMs didn't offer it. Just like the Phillies 5/118 for Wheeler isn't necessarily wrong just because 28 other GMs didn't offer it. (Doesn't mean those deals are necessarily good talent evaluation either -- time will tell how the players and teams will do. And I agree there is still plenty of time for the Twins to do something else, but I also understand the concern and anxiety as we wait for that to actually happen.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Come on now, guys.

It’s easy to spend other people’s money...
He didn’t want to play here...
His girlfriend visited Tucson once...
The Diamondbacks overpaid/the market isn’t fair...
The front office is just being patient/ they are geniuses...
Small market team, not enough money...
Don’t want to be stuck with a contract in five years
Maybe Graterol will triple his workload and be an ace
Enjoy the ride...
We won 100 games last year
Etc etc etc

Which excuse will it be this time?

EDIT: Oh a new one!!! He wanted to hit!!

There always is a reason. Since you seem to be hung up on it, why don't you go ask the player and get back to us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premiere Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...