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Front Page: 8 Twins Who Could be on the Move for 2020


Cooper Carlson
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WIth Rogers number to jump that high.......I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an extension before arbitration hits.

Agreed. And it makes a ton of sense for both sides.

 

It's also why I play the "amateur" game of GM. And why I recognise a $150M mean payroll vs $130ishM payroll to work with to allow flexibility and extensions plus sustainability.

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I see the Twins bringing back Odo and Pineda. The FO wants to build the rotation from within. They will try to sign a good starting pitcher or trade for one. Cron will likely not be back and Sano will play more first base. He is being groomed as the DH successor to Nelson Cruz. Sano could still play 3rd base if needed. Twins need a spot for Kiriloff and others who will be ready for the bigs in 20 or 21. Castro and Schoop will be gone. Interesting times.

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retaining Astudillo means you can 'have' 3 catchers, without wasting a roster spot. Turtle can play so many positions he wouldn't have to be a 3rd catcher per se. He gives the team extra utility.

 

I understand that you can carry Astudillo with two other catchers--but why? I would rather have a bench bat than a backup catcher who hits below the Mendoza line. If Garver gets hurt and Astudillo is playing in the field it's not a big deal to move him behind the plate. We already have Gonzalez and Adrianza as utility options with Astudillo and Arraez with positional flexability. 

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Time to move Sano to 1B. Sure, a guy that big with that kind of arm at 3B is an amazing sight, but, he doesn't have the range or agility to dive and get back up -- witness the balls hit by him in the Yankees series. And, he won't help anyone once he pulls a hammy from running after foul pops. Sano to 1B, Cron given his papers. Gibson and Perez, would someone figure out their pitching performance against Central Division opponents and the rest of the league? At some point, beating up on patsies in the Central just doesn't equate to being a ML pitcher who can deal with first tier competition. Revamp around Odo and Berrios. At some point, either Buxton or Rosario has to be traded for a front-line starter.

I would like to see the FO think outside the box. Twins had no true running threat outside of Buxton, and opposing pitchers knew that. A lead off guy like Whit Merrifield would be perfect in this lineup. Someone who gets on base, can steal bases and can play any outfield position, 2b and 1b. I'm probably in the minority here, but 8 out of 9 in the batting order, all swinging for the fences every at bat, won't get it done in the post season.

If they deaden the ball like it sounds, the Twins will be in trouble. 7 guys with warning track power equals a lot fewer wins.

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Because he was a replacement-level player this year, while dealing with an e.Coli infection and ulcerative colitis?

 

I think your "litmus test" is a terrible one to judge this franchise on. If the FO is convinced they can get the 2018 version of Kyle Gibson next year, then he's a significant asset on the roster, depending on the price. He put up a 3.8 bWAR and 118 ERA+ while chewing up almost 200 innings and averaging over 6 IP per start. If that guy is your #3 or #4 starter, you're in fantastic shape. And if Gibson can be had at an AAV of say under $12M and your staff thinks he's going to be that pitcher, it's a good move and hardly a failed offseason because he's back on the roster. If he's available a week before spring training and wants to do a 1 year "prove it" deal and the team thinks he's healthy, not bringing him for an arbitrary reason like that is franchise malpractice.

 

It's fair to say, "I don't think Kyle Gibson can replicate 2018." or "I don't think he's going to be worth the money on a long term deal." but isn't it just silly to say (in Oct) "The offseason is a failure if Kyle Gibson is on the roster in 2020"?

 

It's not like this is a pitcher who's never had success in MLB. Or has constantly been injured. or is somehow a major tool/clubhouse cancer. He's had multiple quality seasons.

 

I used to call him The Tease, because it never seemed like he was going to put it together consistently. Then he did it for 2018. Changed his approach, got more Ks, had more success and did have that consistency.

 

There's real risk with him. But there's also success and value to be had there if things break his way. I value Odorizzi higher because he's had a stronger track record overall, is 2 years younger, and looks well positioned to have continued success in his more limited innings. But Gibson, if fully healthy, is probably a decent bet to have a successful season. (keep in mind Gibson's fWAR in 2019 was actually the same as his fWAR in 2018; personally I consider bWAR a better representation of what a pitcher actually did in any given season but fWAR is considered by many a better predictor of future success...)

Im done with Kyle. Hes had ample chances.....he hasnt been battling illness since we drafted him, has he?

 

Hes a perpetual head case, and id never trust him in big regular season games much less in the postseason.

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Gibson has never been a favorite of mine because he is nimbler and wants to be perfect which usually leads to big inning against him. The fact though is I have feeling he's going to sign contract who ever gets him will fix him on the above and he will become the pitcher we always thought he could be. Also he pitched this season being sick all of the season all you had to do was look at him. His regression this year I believe will be recovered if he can get himself healthy. If right team signs him with some real veteran pitchers that can teach him how to pitch aggressively he will become solid 3 to 4 starter eating up 180 to 200 innings. the problem is the Twins are screwed no matter which way this goes. But remember this when he having career year on winner some place else. Because somebody going to sign him to moderate contract and get his upside plus he's good to have in club house another positive he does have. Gibson will be one the pitchers looking back at where the twins couldn't get what they wanted but somebody else unlocks that performance becomes one reason they have won.

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Gibson has never been a favorite of mine because he is nimbler and wants to be perfect which usually leads to big inning against him. The fact though is I have feeling he's going to sign contract who ever gets him will fix him on the above and he will become the pitcher we always thought he could be. Also he pitched this season being sick all of the season all you had to do was look at him. His regression this year I believe will be recovered if he can get himself healthy. If right team signs him with some real veteran pitchers that can teach him how to pitch aggressively he will become solid 3 to 4 starter eating up 180 to 200 innings. the problem is the Twins are screwed no matter which way this goes. But remember this when he having career year on winner some place else. Because somebody going to sign him to moderate contract and get his upside plus he's good to have in club house another positive he does have. Gibson will be one the pitchers looking back at where the twins couldn't get what they wanted but somebody else unlocks that performance becomes one reason they have won.

So, I'm not sure - are you proposing to try to sign him, or let him go?

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For reference, per mlbtraderumors. Their arbitration estimates:

 

Twins (10)

Sam Dyson – $6.4MM

Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM

C.J. Cron – $7.7MM

Trevor May – $2.1MM

Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM

Miguel Sano – $5.9MM

Byron Buxton – $2.9MM

Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM

Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM

Jose Berrios – $5.4MM

No chance I pay Cron that much. No way. Zero. I'd also probably trade Rosario, but that depends on the return.

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Just read a BR report on the top 10 FA starting pitchers. The 3 Twins FA’s are all listed in the 5 thru 10 range. For those insistent on a complete overhaul, the question is, “where will you find someone better”? 6 or 7 years at $200M+ for Cole isn’t happening. 5 yrs at $120m for Wheeler or MadBum isn’t likely either. How happy should we all be that we didn’t get Darvish? Gibson and Pineda are the type of arms that can be gotten on decent deals. I think they will have to overpay to get Odorizzi back, but I think they should I hope the bring 2 or 3 of them back and pull off a trade for a younger arm (Rosario as a centerpiece).

Their biggest shortcoming is not pitching, but infield defense followed by the ability to score runs other than via HR.

How happy should we be we didn't get Corbin? Rosario isn't bringing back major league pitching. No chance.

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Castro: If they can get him for a year, I'd do it. The question to me is whether we're comfortable with a Garver/Turtle combo at C. I don't think Rortvedt or Jeffers will be ready either, so you're signing a 4A type at C to sit in AAA.

 

Cron: I keep unless there's another 1B on the market that they want. Really, you have to replace his production and there's no one in the high minors that could feasibly do that at 1st or 3rd if you wanted to move Sano there.

 

Schoop: Good bye... Arraez can handle the job for now, though I'd make it a competition between him and Gordon.

 

Romo: Stays.

 

Gibson/Pineda: I think one of these guys stays. It really depends on Gibson's medicals, though I'd lean Pineda who was pretty good and will come cheap. With Pineda, you can start Graterol in late April/May with the plan of keeping him the majors to build up his innings count as a long reliever/spot starter.

 

Perez: Good bye... It was a nice run, but once he was figured out, he regressed to his mean.

Cron put up replacement level WAR.....

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Cron put up replacement level WAR.....

b-ref has him at 1.4... that's not quite replacement level but definitely room for improvement, but I've already checked pending FAs... not a ton of better production out there. Donaldson is probably the big name and could provide some flexibility as he plays 3rd. He's going to cost 20M though and possibly multiple years. I'd rather focus on pitching. 

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It seems there is a small community that's rallying behind re-signing Pineada, Odo, AND acquiring two starters better than Berrios. Call me skeptical, I just can't realistically see the FO re-signing Odo and Pineada thinking they just locked up the back end of our rotation.  Twins would do well to acquire 1 SP outside the organization that fills the top of the rotation this offseason.  Slot Berrios, Odo, Pineada 2-4, and the remaining internal options battle or shuttle back and forth for the 5th spot.  That rotation seems to fit well to win the AL Central again.  Look to add another impact SP in June or July.  I will give the FO credit in coining the phrase "impact pitching."  Now acquire it.   

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b-ref has him at 1.4... that's not quite replacement level but definitely room for improvement, but I've already checked pending FAs... not a ton of better production out there. Donaldson is probably the big name and could provide some flexibility as he plays 3rd. He's going to cost 20M though and possibly multiple years. I'd rather focus on pitching. 

 

No way I pay 6-7MM next year for mediocre 1B production.......not with needing 3 starting pitchers, a backup catcher that is Castro good or better, a RP or two.....I guess I think they can afford that if they deal Rosario.....

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No chance I pay Cron that much. No way. Zero. I'd also probably trade Rosario, but that depends on the return.

 

I also think there is no way the Twins pay that either.  IF they do plan on bringing Cron back, you have to probably assume they decline arbitration and offer him a 1 year deal more in the 4-5M range.

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I also think there is no way the Twins pay that either.  IF they do plan on bringing Cron back, you have to probably assume they decline arbitration and offer him a 1 year deal more in the 4-5M range.

 

I'd pay $4MM.....but I wouldn't like it. I might pay $5MM, but I don't know their budget situation.....

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Great thread!

<<clipped for brevity>>

Dyson: Not mentioned, but I'm including him here. The Twins cou,d easily walk away. But they could also do a split deal, like they did with Pineda, and sign him to a "small" 2020 contract, hoping for the best, with a 2021 option with incentives in mind.

 

Yes, I haven't seen much comment on Dyson, but I've been thinking the same, even going as far as making it a two-year deal. If Pineda was $2M+$8M and MLBTR projects him at $6.6M in arbitration, how about something like $1M + $7M?

 

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Yes, I haven't seen much comment on Dyson, but I've been thinking the same, even going as far as making it a two-year deal. If Pineda was $2M+$8M and MLBTR projects him at $6.6M in arbitration, how about something like $1M + $7M?

Pretty close to what I was thinking. Anywhere from $750K-$1M first year. Your $7M is probably fair. I was thinking more like $5M guaranteed with bonuses that would take him up to $7M+

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I also think there is no way the Twins pay that either. IF they do plan on bringing Cron back, you have to probably assume they decline arbitration and offer him a 1 year deal more in the 4-5M range.

I don't think Cron makes it through waivers. He's relatively young, relatively productive, and has the upside for a breakout season (basically if he sandwiched his healthy 1st half). Unlike when the Twins took the chance, he's now shown he can be defensive asset.

 

Cron in his final arb year only costs money 1 year. The pitching we're discussing will be 4 or 5 year deals. This staff loves 1 year deals. Insurance for a Cruz injury isn't awful either.

 

I'd rather pay a little more for short term investments than have an extra couple million thinking that will be the difference on Cole and not the 6th and 7th year and extra 75 million the Yankees are going to offer.

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Jason Castro - I like him, but I would rather spend the money elsewhere. Astudillo should be a serviceable backup. I also don't want to carry 3 catchers.

 

C.J. Cron - I'd offer him a reasonable one year contract. I would use him as a lefty masher/platoon/bench bat.

 

Jonathan Schoop - Again I like him, but he no longer fits with this team.

 

Kyle Gibson - This is the guy I'm most torn on. I wish he could figure out how to be consistently good, but I probably let him walk. If he wants a one year make good deal--I would be fine with it.

 

Michael Pineda - I'll take him back, but I wouldn't do more than a two years $20MM deal.

 

Martin Perez - Buy out his option and let him walk.

 

Jake Odorizzi - In my mind this is a no-brainer. Jake is my first priority. I'd go up to four years for $60MM. Doesn't like it? Then he gets the qualifying offer.

 

Sergio Romo - I'd take him back for a small one year deal for $3MM, but I worry about his knee.

 

Finally I go hard after Cole. I don't think he will come up here, but I give it my best shot. I would offer five years for $200MM.

Someone is going to get burned with Cole. He pitches like his last 2 years in Pittsburgh or has some arm injury.

 

Someone mentioned Wheeler. Well expect a 1.35 WHIP or so in the AL.

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Someone is going to get burned with Cole. He pitches like his last 2 years in Pittsburgh or has some arm injury.

Someone mentioned Wheeler. Well expect a 1.35 WHIP or so in the AL.

 

I doubt Cole is healthy/great 5-6 years from now, but I'm sure that's the contract length he is looking for. That being said he has been the best pitcher in baseball this year and for the Twins to get two similar years would be franchise altering. The top rotations in baseball are not home-grown. You have to take that risk if you want to compete. I would rather have Cole and a couple of our AAAA pitchers than three mid-tier free agent starters. 

 

Now Wheeler I'm not as high on. He could be the number two starter on a decent team, but he needs some refining. I would take a chance only if we don't get Cole and the price doesn't get too high. 

Edited by justinone
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