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Front Page: Twins' Payroll Analysis: Three Pitchers, $70M


 

Pineda hasn't had a healthy year since many of you were born*

*Exaggeration for effect....

Either the window is open, or not. But Cruz won't be here forever. Sano and Rosario aren't here forever. Garver will probably be less healthy year after year, that's the nature of catching.

If they don't get two good pitchers, why should any fan believe they will ever go in?

Who said they won't get 2 good pitchers? They may even pick up 3. Don't confuse free agent pitchers with good pitchers. Free agency has been the market of last resort for many years, and it's become even more clear the past 2 off-seasons.

Edited by howieramone2
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Neither Buxton or Rosario by themselves is going to fetch a controllable ace caliber pitcher. I think the most probable way for the Twins to pull it off would be to trade an OFer to team A, have team A trade prospects to team B, add in more prospects for team B and get your guy that way from team B. A team trading for Rosario or Buxton isn’t going to trade away a good pitcher at the MLB level.

 

Why wouldn't the Twins just trade prospects?  What's the use of trading Buxton AND prospects, when they could just do it with prospects and keep Buxton?

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Yes, this strategy has worked well with Lance Lynn, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Corriea, Hector Santiago, Bartolo Colon, Anibal Sanchez, Martin Perez and more! 

 

The 20-game winner can start two games in the ALDS and three in the ALCS/WS. That's why its needed in my opinion. Having a bunch of middling starters and hoping for career years has not worked out for this organization, especially when it comes to winning in the playoffs. 

Lynn and Sanchez would have looked good to me in Twins uniforms this year and you should probably add Odorizzi to the list.   Hughes was great for a year also.    

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Why wouldn't the Twins just trade prospects? What's the use of trading Buxton AND prospects, when they could just do it with prospects and keep Buxton?

We’re talking about adding two good starting pitchers. The Twins probably don’t have enough prospects to do that without adding some MLB talent.

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I would like to see Kiriloff come up and replace Cron.     Resign Odorizzi and Pineda if possible.    If Dyson were healthy I would say the bullpen is maybe done but instead we need to replace Dyson equivalent.    If we can sign Odorizzi and Pineda then adding one more Odorizzi or Pineda type or better would complete the off season.   Cole would be ideal.   

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We’re talking about adding two good starting pitchers. The Twins probably don’t have enough prospects to do that without adding some MLB talent.

Our favorite team picked up 2 solid relievers at the trade deadline for little or nothing. They have enough prospects to get what many, including some of the national experts will view as good starters.

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I'd QO Jake and try to extend Sano, Buck and Eddie. I would let Cron and Schoop go with a big thank you. I'd bring Castro back and see if Cruz wants an additional year.  All those guys fit.

I'd guilt Big Mike into signing at market or a little below. 

 

But I would absolutely overpay for Cole. Absolutely.

 

Cole, Berrios, Odo, Graterol and Dobber (eventually Mike) gives us a chance at a decent rotation 1-162.

 

After Cole, we go with the hot hand in the ALDS and ALCS. Methinks that will Be Jose and Jake as 2 and 3. But short leash with Mike in the background. 

 

Curious to see how Busdar adjusts back to starter

 

Dobber/Gibson (if healthy)  become long relief/ swing men out of the pen. 

 

AND CRUZ IS SPECIAL

 

"The 39-year-old Cruz reached the 40-homer mark for the fourth time in the last six seasons, and he's hit at least 37 homers in all of those years. Cruz became just the fourth player in Major League history to post a 40-homer season in his age-38 season or older, joining Barry Bonds (2003-04), Darrell Evans (1985) and Hank Aaron (1973).

Cruz finished the 2019 season with a .311/.392/.639 slash line and a 1.031 OPS that was second in the AL behind Mike Trout."

 

 

 

Yes, make it two more years for Nelson

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Our favorite team picked up 2 solid relievers at the trade deadline for little or nothing. They have enough prospects to get what many, including some of the national experts will view as good starters.

Sure, they got two months of one and like 2 outings from the other.

 

We’re talking about starters for (ideally) multiple seasons. I’m not particularly interested in acquiring a one year rental.

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I'd definitely go hard after a top end starter (Cole, Strassburg if he's an option).  Wheeler scares me a bit. I'd probably try and get Jake to a 3/40 type deal or QO him if he won't. Given Graterol won't go a full season, I could see signing Pineda to a 1/5-7 type deal and letting Graterol start while he's suspended and switch to the pen or long relief once Pineda is ready. 

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Honestly this is what I am looking at. 

 

Cole        30 mil   (7 years 210 million)

Odorizzo 15 mil   (3 year 45 million )

Pineda    10 mil  (2 year 22 million- 10 mil 2020 12 mil 2021)

Romo       3 mil   (1 year with 1 year option total potentional 6 million)

 

For Reliever get one more solid arm at 6-8 million. 

 

That is 66 million.  That brings total payroll to around $120. That allows 15 to 20 million to figure out 1st base and any other extensions. 

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I would like to see Kiriloff come up and replace Cron.     Resign Odorizzi and Pineda if possible.    If Dyson were healthy I would say the bullpen is maybe done but instead we need to replace Dyson equivalent.    If we can sign Odorizzi and Pineda then adding one more Odorizzi or Pineda type or better would complete the off season.   Cole would be ideal.   

 

If you want someone in the system replacing Cron, Rooker probably is the more likely option.  He put up a .933 OPS in AAA last year.  Kiriloff's OPS against AA pitching was lower than what Cron did at the major league level.

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Yeah, I agree with the Graterol/Big Mike idea. If Busdar is ready to start the season as a MLB starter. Time to find out.

 

If Cole doesn't want to come here, (even if we offer $5 million more than anyone else) we go next man up. I think Cole will listen to the Angels or Padres or Dodgers the most, being a SoCal guy.

 

Mad Bum isn't ideal but he has been there and his leadership would be welcome.

 

I think stud FA pitchers would be more open to coming to Minnesota after this year. We have a fun bunch with great team chemistry

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If it were me, I would do my best to get Cole in here, then also turn around and trade Lewis +  for whoever you feel the best trade candidate pitcher is available.

 

Polanco, Aaraez, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Garver. There are enough bats/position players on this team that are young and will be here for a bit yet. If you can trade a top prospect for a young pitcher you feel can be a 1 or 2, DO IT. Quit hanging on to all these guys as if they will all pan out to be Babe Ruth. 

 

Lewis could just as easily turn into Aaron Hicks and he can turn into a starting SS. Either way, I'd trade that type of guys for great pitching either way. What is the hold up, really?

 

To me you go into this offseason with the thought of getting one of the top 3 FA starters and using the humongous high end depth in your minor league system to bring in the absolute best arm you can. If you tank after a year or two, go ahead and trade some of that high end pitching and get more prospect back. Take a chance for once!

 

Cole/Wheeler/Baum

Berrios

Trade for stud(don't ask for names that is what we pay the wonderboys to know)

Ordorizi

Pineda/Graterol/whoever the hell you want from your system...

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Battle ur tail off
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Who said they won't get 2 good pitchers? They may even pick up 3. Don't confuse free agent pitchers with good pitchers. Free agency has been the market of last resort for many years, and it's become even more clear the past 2 off-seasons.

They need three pitchers. They aren't going to gut the system to trade for three. That would be stupid. I never said they wouldn't, I said if they don't, then they aren't serious. Nothing more or less was said in that post.

Edited by Mike Sixel
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I've seen both here and elsewhere suggesting Odorizzi signing a 3 year contract. I don't see it happening, this is his one real chance to sign a relatively long, lucrative contract. I'm betting he gets a 5 year contract, though a 4 year one with an option at the end also seems quite possible.

Edit: And if for some reason it is a 3 year contract it's going to be more like $20 million a year not this 15 I see suggested as well.

I have be believe smart teams will not pay Odorizzi 15 million plus for more than 3 years. Once in his 6 year career has he average more than 5 2/3 of an inning. And his two with the Twin he has average less than 5 1/3. How can you justify spending that much when on average he is only going to pitch about half the game. It seems like a better idea to go out and get 3 relief pitchers at 5 - 6 million a piece and for about the same price you get more innings and pitchers that pitch more than once every 5 days.

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I have be believe smart teams will not pay Odorizzi 15 million plus for more than 3 years. Once in his 6 year career has he average more than 5 2/3 of an inning. And his two with the Twin he has average less than 5 1/3. How can you justify spending that much when on average he is only going to pitch about half the game. It seems like a better idea to go out and get 3 relief pitchers at 5 - 6 million a piece and for about the same price you get more innings and pitchers that pitch more than once every 5 days.

Because gone are the days of starters going six innings most days. Go look at the list of starters on leader boards.... There aren't many you want more than Odo, and even less that will be available.... It's all about the QO. If there is none, he'll get fifteen a year, imo

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I've seen both here and elsewhere suggesting Odorizzi signing a 3 year contract. I don't see it happening, this is his one real chance to sign a relatively long, lucrative contract. I'm betting he gets a 5 year contract, though a 4 year one with an option at the end also seems quite possible.

Edit: And if for some reason it is a 3 year contract it's going to be more like $20 million a year not this 15 I see suggested as well.

 

I'd love to see some evidence on this one. yes, he may want a 5 year deal, but there's little in recent market trends to suggest that he's going to get it, especially after having a bit of a fade in the middle of the year and showing that he's not a guy who can pitch deep into games. I like the guy and support re-signing him, but going into his Age 30 Season he's never thrown 200 innings, and cleared 175 IP exactly once. He's due for a very nice raise this offseason, but $20M per? 5 years? It seems unlikely that's coming for the guy who was just dealt for Jermaine palacios. I'd be stunned if the AAV went over $17M

 

 

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I have be believe smart teams will not pay Odorizzi 15 million plus for more than 3 years. Once in his 6 year career has he average more than 5 2/3 of an inning. And his two with the Twin he has average less than 5 1/3. How can you justify spending that much when on average he is only going to pitch about half the game. It seems like a better idea to go out and get 3 relief pitchers at 5 - 6 million a piece and for about the same price you get more innings and pitchers that pitch more than once every 5 days.

 

What three relief pitchers that have had good seasons in EACH of the last two seasons are free agents?

 

I’ll hang up and wait for your answer.

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I don't think the National are going to tear it down (already offered a 7 year contract to Rendon) but it will be interesting to see what the Cubs, A's, and Rockies do.

The A's are not tearing it down. They have an affordable, playoff-level roster, to whom they are adding Luzard, Puk, and Manaea, virtually free. They are like the Twins but with three low-cost ace pitchers already in the fold. They made the playoffs the last two years with a rotation of castoffs.  Next year they are going to be monsters, without even straining their budget.

 

But most other teams would happily lower payroll if given young prospects in return. We are extremely well positioned to pick up a costly veteran in a salary dump. We could throw in a high-upside minor league pitcher like Duran or Alcala who they could sell to their fans as a better long-term investment in their rotation, which would probably be true, and we could get an ace. And we probably should, since our offense is ready now. Let's just hope it's not Archer redux.

 

The truth is we could afford Cole as a free agent, and two more good veterans.  That 70M in unspent budget still would leave payroll well below 50% of revenue.  They could afford to spend well more than that while making record profits.  They socked away quite a lot during the losing years, claiming they were waiting for the competitive window to open to spend.  Well it's open.  Time to spend.

 

Adding a reliever or two might be wise too. Graterol should be in the minors developing as a starter.  To compete sustainably they'll need a few pitching prospects to turn into underpaid aces.  Hopefully he and Balazovic pan out, so when our lineup gets pricey and we start losing hitters, the rotation will provide enough cheap innings to stay competitive.  And guys like Lewis, Larnach, Kiriloff, Rooker, and Javier can replace the hitters who hit free agency.

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Because gone are the days of starters going six innings most days. Go look at the list of starters on leader boards.... There aren't many you want more than Odo, and even less that will be available.... It's all about the QO. If there is none, he'll get fifteen a year, imo

I understand the days are gone of going 6, what I am saying is the smart teams are going to figure out you don't pay Odo 19 million a year to go 5 innings and leave the rest of the game up to rookies, has beens and never will be's.

I assume they are paying good money to analysts to figure out what the right price is to pay for an inning of pitching, then figure out how to fill those innings in a budget. And paying Odo 118K an inning is probably not the best money spent.

And if they aren't paying somebody this I have back ground in Data and will happily accept the job.

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Our favorite team picked up 2 solid relievers at the trade deadline for little or nothing. They have enough prospects to get what many, including some of the national experts will view as good starters.

Are you sure? Is Dyson really a solid reliever?

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What three relief pitchers that have had good seasons in EACH of the last two seasons are free agents?

I’ll hang up and wait for your answer.

Will Smith, Will Harris, Steve Cishek, and a few others. There are also others that may not have been great last year but have been pretty good in the past.

Also getting relief pitchers aren't only acquired in FA.

My point really was I think 19 million could be better budgeted then on a pitcher that pitches one out of five games and only give you 5 innings in that game.

 

I will say this, if they told Odo we will give you a QO, the expectation is that you average at least 6 innings and we don't care how many pitches it takes to get there. I would back that. Maybe him only pitching 5 innings isn't on him, I mean they only let him get to 100 pitches 9 times. Maybe that is on Rocco or the front office and if that is case, that completely justifies not giving him that type of money.

 

 

Edited by Tomj14
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Something a little outside the box I would like to see is the Twins go after Yu Darvish on a trade.  He ranked 7th among all starters in K% and 10th in xFIP.  His ERA and FIP were inflated due to uncharacteristically high HR% which may be solved by leaving Wrigley and can help reduce his trade cost. he is down to 4Y/$81M on his contract which helps reduce the risk.  

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Will Smith, Will Harris, Steve Cishek, and a few others. There are also others that may not have been great last year but have been pretty good in the past.

Also getting relief pitchers aren't only acquired in FA.

My point really was I think 19 million could be better budgeted then on a pitcher that pitches one out of five games and only give you 5 innings in that game.

 

I will say this, if they told Odo we will give you a QO, the expectation is that you average at least 6 innings and we don't care how many pitches it takes to get there. I would back that. Maybe him only pitching 5 innings isn't on him, I mean they only let him get to 100 pitches 9 times. Maybe that is on Rocco or the front office and if that is case, that completely justifies not giving him that type of money.

None of those three are going to sign for $5-6 mil per year. More like $8-$10 mil per. So, your $ 19 mil gets you about 130 IP as opposed to 160 from Odo.

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None of those three are going to sign for $5-6 mil per year. More like $8-$10 mil per. So, your $ 19 mil gets you about 130 IP as opposed to 160 from Odo.

you're absolutely correct, you asked "What three relief pitchers that have had good seasons in EACH of the last two seasons are free agents?"

 

It was my bad to assume you meant three pitchers that have good seasons in EACH of the last two years that will sign for 5 - 6 mil per year, I have no idea how I could have missed that in your post.

 

I could have said Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen,Yusmeiro Petit are three relief pitchers that have been pretty good and would more than likely cost less than Odo.

 

But then I probably would have missed that you were really asking for 3 relief pitchers that were good the last two years, that will accept the money and be smart for the Twins to sign.

 

Not my job to figure that out, that is for the high priced front office employees, I was suggesting they probably could get three guys (that average about 5 - 6 mi a year) for that cost to coverage more games and innings.

 

Edited by Tomj14
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I understand the days are gone of going 6, what I am saying is the smart teams are going to figure out you don't pay Odo 19 million a year to go 5 innings and leave the rest of the game up to rookies, has beens and never will be's.

I assume they are paying good money to analysts to figure out what the right price is to pay for an inning of pitching, then figure out how to fill those innings in a budget. And paying Odo 118K an inning is probably not the best money spent.

And if they aren't paying somebody this I have back ground in Data and will happily accept the job.

I'll ask again.... Look at the leaderboards, and tell me who will be available that is better, that won't cost a lot more? And I said fifteen, or is that the difference here?

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I expect the Twins reputation as cheapskates will scare off free agent pitchers, even if offered a premium salary. Players will want to play for a good team - I can't imagine anyone wants to sign a big dollar contract and find it offset by filling the roster with rookies and cast-offs. 

 

If you're going to convince a top free agent to come to MN I think you need to start by trading for premium talent.  Bump Berrios back to number 3 by trade and you might have a chance to bump him back to number 4 via free agency. 

 

Yes, it's expensive in both prospects and dollars, but I think it's the only way we sign a top free agent pitcher. 

 

My personal expectation is that the Twins are "in on" everyone, fail to sign a difference maker, and next year's rotation is no better than the crew that got blown out this fall. 

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