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Are we done with Gibson? Once and for all


magiklair
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I'm hoping this is one of last times we see Gibson. He has had one good year and every other year has been above 4 ERA. He actually broke off talks with the twins on an extension. We might have saved ourselves from a terrible deal.

Edited by magiklair
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He started the year weak from E Coli he got trying to help people less fortunate. When he got strong again, he was getting good again. Then he got sick again, and isn't recovered. It's hard to figure out what he'll be like next year when healthy.

 

I'm ok with whatever they decide, but I don't think people realize how bad pitching is in the AL. Gibson was actually not bad.... When compared to his peers. Not great, either

Edited by Mike Sixel
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Would you pay $36 for three more years of Gibson? That is the Big question. Not that expect people to be knocking down the door, but we will get a multi-year offer.

With his ulcerative colitis, I don’t see the market. It’s a permanent condition. Feel really bad for the guy, but I think there are better options.

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Gibson has always had stuff that gets whiffs, but he's put together only one really good season. Yeah, this could be pretty close to the end for Gibby in a Twinkies uniform. Twins have several good prospects coming up, and the rooks up today look like they might just pan out. 

 

Gibson can go be an overpriced #4 for some other team. 

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Gibson has always had stuff that gets whiffs, but he's put together only one really good season. Yeah, this could be pretty close to the end for Gibby in a Twinkies uniform. Twins have several good prospects coming up, and the rooks up today look like they might just pan out.

 

Gibson can go be an overpriced #4 for some other team.

Maybe you are seeing something I’m not. I haven’t been wowed by Graterol, Thorpe or Smeltzer. And if the Twins don’t retain Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda or Perez, all three are likely penciled into 2020 rotation.

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He started the year weak from E Coli he got trying to help people less fortunate. When he got strong again, he was getting good again. Then he got sick again, and isn't recovered. It's hard to figure out what he'll be like next year when healthy.

I'm ok with whatever they decide, but I don't think people realize how bad pitching is in the AL. Gibson was actually not bad.... When compared to his peers. Not great, either

This is why I think Gibson might actually be a really good buy low candidate on a one year deal.

 

If you can get him for $6-7m with the sickness cloud over his head, I roll the dice on that every time.

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Maybe you are seeing something I’m not. I haven’t been wowed by Graterol, Thorpe or Smeltzer. And if the Twins don’t retain Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda or Perez, all three are likely penciled into 2020 rotation.

Sure, but that doesn't mean we should overpay Gibson just so we have someone to fill the space. We are allowed to sign other FA starters and trade for them too.

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Sure, but that doesn't mean we should overpay Gibson just so we have someone to fill the space. We are allowed to sign other FA starters and trade for them too.

Free agents have to want to come to Minnesota. The Twins have not had much success luring top FA starters. Their best success story in the last ten (twenty?) years might be Ervin Santana who was suspended for the first half of his first season and missed big chunks of two others.

 

Also, how many teams are likely to trade away good, controllable starters for the pieces the Twins are willing to offer?

Edited by yarnivek1972
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Gibson is not going to take anything less than 10 million a year. He might want a multiyear contract.

I don't know about that. If he can't pitch effectively for the rest of the season, that's going to make a lot of teams hesitant to give him $10m and a multi-year deal would basically be off the table, at least at the money level Gibson would want to commit to more than one year.

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Gibson is not going to take anything less than 10 million a year. He might want a multiyear contract.

 

I'm not sure if we know what he will or will not take. What I will say is that this is his position, there's a good chance he's retiring. I don't see a team giving him a 1 year deal at 8 figures given his health as it is right now. That's a degenerative condition with which there's little cure. He can only hope that proper treatment this offseason that he can manage it. 

 

I agree with Brock, he's a buy low guy. I don't think anyone should be ruled out at this point, as the Twins most definitely will need SP help... I really do hope though that they don't go cheap on that this offseason. This offense should be special for a while. Get some good pitching. 

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Free agents have to want to come to Minnesota. The Twins have not had much success luring top FA starters.

If the Twins actually make the highest bid, and it's turned down, they won't want to directly say so, but they have their favorite reporters to whom they can make off-the-record hints to that effect and get the message into the papers and other outlets.

 

They don't dare play that kind of PR game falsely, lest the player in question quietly say, "um, no," when asked to confirm.

 

And so, in turn, when we don't see these scoops published by the usual outlets, it's a pretty good indication that that didn't happen. Players aren't turning down our good money. They're turning down our inferior money.

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Need three. Has any team ever added three good, new, starting pitchers in one off season?

Well, "good" is a pretty general term here. Would it really be out of the realm of possibility to add something like 2 #3 starters and a #5?

 

Just a hypothetical situation here... but say the Twins re-sign Odorizzi for something like 3/$50M, trade for Chris Archer for a couple sizable prospects (trying to get Archer back to what he was as a Ray), and then maybe somebody like Michael Wacha on a less expensive deal. You could then have the 5th spot of the rotation go to Thorpe/Smeltzer/other option. I'd like to see them aim higher than this, but I don't think my scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

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Well, "good" is a pretty general term here. Would it really be out of the realm of possibility to add something like 2 #3 starters and a #5?

 

Just a hypothetical situation here... but say the Twins re-sign Odorizzi for something like 3/$50M, trade for Chris Archer for a couple sizable prospects (trying to get Archer back to what he was as a Ray), and then maybe somebody like Michael Wacha on a less expensive deal. You could then have the 5th spot of the rotation go to Thorpe/Smeltzer/other option. I'd like to see them aim higher than this, but I don't think my scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

pretty close, yeah.... and Archer hasn’t been what he was as a Ray, and there’s a reason they let him go. More than just money.
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Well, "good" is a pretty general term here. Would it really be out of the realm of possibility to add something like 2 #3 starters and a #5?

 

Just a hypothetical situation here... but say the Twins re-sign Odorizzi for something like 3/$50M, trade for Chris Archer for a couple sizable prospects (trying to get Archer back to what he was as a Ray), and then maybe somebody like Michael Wacha on a less expensive deal. You could then have the 5th spot of the rotation go to Thorpe/Smeltzer/other option. I'd like to see them aim higher than this, but I don't think my scenario is out of the realm of possibility.

Gibson is better than Wacha. I was replying to people that side Gibson was bad, and they should acquire better pitchers.

 

Why would any team pay for a number five starter, if they have a good minor league system?

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 It's hard to figure out what he'll be like next year when healthy.

I'm ok with whatever they decide, but I don't think people realize how bad pitching is in the AL. Gibson was actually not bad.... When compared to his peers. Not great, either

Eh, I think at this point we have a pretty good idea of what Gibson will be. He'll be up and down all season and in the end his numbers will be that of a mid to back end rotation piece. 

 

If that's the expectation for bringing him back then fine, I'm just over the notion that Gibson still hasn't hit his ceiling. 

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Eh, I think at this point we have a pretty good idea of what Gibson will be. He'll be up and down all season and in the end his numbers will be that of a mid to back end rotation piece. 

 

If that's the expectation for bringing him back then fine, I'm just over the notion that Gibson still hasn't hit his ceiling. 

I don't think anyone is arguing that he hasn't hit his ceiling but his ceiling is pretty decent, around 2.5-3.0 fWAR.

 

I'll take that for $6-8m on a one-year deal.

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Eh, I think at this point we have a pretty good idea of what Gibson will be. He'll be up and down all season and in the end his numbers will be that of a mid to back end rotation piece.

 

If that's the expectation for bringing him back then fine, I'm just over the notion that Gibson still hasn't hit his ceiling.

Agreed.... Do people expect to find three better than mid? Not one, not two, three? People are tired of him, but look at the actual alternatives.

 

Again, if they decide to move on, fine. But good luck acquiring three better starters in one off season.

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