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Front Page: Twins Minor League Report (8/27): Ober Continues Domination


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He was a late riser, but no one really considered him that much of a reach. MLB.com had him at 28 on their pre-draft rankings with a 50 overall grade. Their 18th prospect was the highest ranked 50 FV, to give some reference. Fangraphs had him at 22 on their draft board with a 45 FV. Langliers was their highest ranked 45 FV, coming in at 14.

He was a consensus first round talent. I’m not sure where your information is coming from.

You are aware he was drafted 13th overall, right? Earlier than the most optimistic service you cite. He’s a high ceiling low floor guy who arrived late on the national scene. And there’s more projection than even for a typically high-schooler based on his late birth date. Did I say he was a horrendous reach? Maybe better to say he was a high-risk pick, picked when lower-risk options are typically still available.

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You are aware he was drafted 13th overall, right? Earlier than the most optimistic service you cite. He’s a high ceiling low floor guy who arrived late on the national scene. And there’s more projection than even for a typically high-schooler based on his late birth date. Did I say he was a horrendous reach? Maybe better to say he was a high-risk pick, picked when lower-risk options are typically still available.

On the other hand, if that’s the guy you want and he wasn’t expected to be available at your next pick, then there’s a case to just take him regardless if it’s at 13th instead of hoping he makes it back around.
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You are aware he was drafted 13th overall, right? Earlier than the most optimistic service you cite. He’s a high ceiling low floor guy who arrived late on the national scene. And there’s more projection than even for a typically high-schooler based on his late birth date. Did I say he was a horrendous reach? Maybe better to say he was a high-risk pick, picked when lower-risk options are typically still available.

You’re splitting hairs. The consensus was that he was a first round talent. Whether he’s 22nd or 13th isn’t all that meaningful, because players taken in that tier tend to be valued very close together.

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I don't know that that is true. Prospect rankings, especially for younger players have very little, if anything, to do with on-field production. It's all about tools and talent. Cavaco's loaded with tools and talent, so he should be a highly-ranked prospect... Not a Top 100. I mean, he's only like #6 or #7 among Twins prospects.

My question would be “why did the local MLB team, who clearly had the ability to scout this kid 7 days a week, pass on him when they snagged another SS with the #6 pick? Because the kid they drafted can actually hit. Cavaco played his HS ball in a notoriously weak league in San Diego, and never played in the more highly competitive club events. When he did play in Jupiter, it wasn’t a good showing. So much emphasis on tools, not enough emphasis on the fact that he really isn’t a gamer, he’s a showcase player. Big difference. Compare how the other HS 1st rd picks performed in their rookie season, and it’s clear to see that MLB for some reason drank the Kool Aid on this kid, and the Twins got stuck with the tab!

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My question would be “why did the local MLB team, who clearly had the ability to scout this kid 7 days a week, pass on him when they snagged another SS with the #6 pick? Because the kid they drafted can actually hit. Cavaco played his HS ball in a notoriously weak league in San Diego, and never played in the more highly competitive club events. When he did play in Jupiter, it wasn’t a good showing. So much emphasis on tools, not enough emphasis on the fact that he really isn’t a gamer, he’s a showcase player. Big difference. Compare how the other HS 1st rd picks performed in their rookie season, and it’s clear to see that MLB for some reason drank the Kool Aid on this kid, and the Twins got stuck with the tab!

 

That all may be true... but I'll give him 2-3 years, maybe even 3-5 years before giving up on him. 

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