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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/21): Giolito Throws Complete Game as Sox Take Series


Seems that taking care of business against the bottom of the Central at home (and away) is very key as well.

yes an absolute must, and I believe the Twins will do that. For some reason they have a hard time at home, so just keep winning on the road and they’ll be fine, yet they need to at least break even at home
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Giolito did exactly what an "Ace" is supposed to do. A rubber match and he took the ball and made sure the opposing team knew who was in control. The Twins do not have that pitcher. Which teams have t

Good thing it is feasting time on the AL Central, eh? 

Twins were up 7-0 after 7 against one of the worst offenses in the league.  Why try and overuse Berrios when they don't need to?  A CGSO is nice, but in the long run, save that arm.  

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Those odds are all based on each other. If you are less likely to make the playoffs than another team, or less likely to make it as a division champ as opposed to a wild card, your subsequent odds of making the next round will be lower too, even if both teams are technically projected to identical future performance.

So the poster could be correct that the Indians could be favored to advance more than the Twins assuming they both enter in equal position/circumstance.

That said, I'm not sure what evidence suggests Cleveland would be favored to advance, even if we normalized the other factors (current record/schedule, division vs wild card). I don't know of any source that publishes such odds. It could be someone's opinion, though.

 

As I understand it, that is incorrect.  When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run.  Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44).  As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.

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Giolito is not going to pitch like this every single time out, but he is going to pitch like this sometimes because he's a very good pitcher. I have no problem with today's game. This happens to every team during the year against good pitchers. Monday's game on the other hand......

But we'll be facing almost exclusively good pitchers if we make the playoffs.

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The difference between May and Duffey being options 2A and 2B, and May and Duffey being options 4A and 4B is absolutely massive.

Right on brother!  Getting dyson (BP 3) and Romo (BP 2) allows May and Duffy to be 4 and 5 and Harper 6.  Add Littel as 7 and you have a solid to very good BP.. Now if only we could get some starting pitching....

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As I understand it, that is incorrect. When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run. Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44). As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.

I don't think anything I said was incorrect, but we might be misunderstanding each other. Fangraphs may run a bunch of simulations to get those odds -- but the data input to those simulations already contains advantages for the Twins -- namely, more regular season wins so far, and an easier remaining schedule. Those advantages are reflected in both the playoff qualification odds, and the odds of advancement (primarily because we can qualify in a better position to advance as a division champ vs a wild card).

 

So each of those odds is based on the others in the chain -- for example, Fangraphs gives the Tigers a 0% chance to advance to the ALCS, because they are already 0% to make to postseason. But I think the other poster could be talking about an "all else being equal" hypothetical comparison. Hypothetically, if the Tigers could qualify like the Twins hopefully will, their chances for advancement would be higher than zero -- although these Tigers might still be pretty close to 0%. :)

 

So we can't necessarily use the Fangraphs chained odds to conclude that the Twins are more likely to advance than Cleveland, *all else being equal*. Of course, we can't conclude the opposite either. And in reality, all else isn't equal, and the Twins are currently more likely to win the division, and thus already have an advantage toward potential advancement.

Edited by spycake
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