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Keith Law Top 100 - no love for Graterol


SydneyTwinsFan
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I'm not giving up on Gordon at all, but last year has to make people question what he might become......Trea Turner was taken not long after Gordon.....sigh.

If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

 

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.

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If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

 

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.

Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year.

 

Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.

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Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year.

Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.

 

 

I would probably bet that Turner ultimately has a better MLB career than Gordon, but no more than a couple bucks.

 

For a long time people ripped the Twins for passing on Jason Varitek to take Torii Hunter. Not only did that pan out in favor of the Twins, but each of the 18 teams who passed on Hunter would've been glad to have a do-over. Not to mention the poor fans of the Mariners, who picked first and didn't screw up the no-brainer of the century. Until later. Alex Rodriquez. Ouch.

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I would probably bet that Turner ultimately has a better MLB career than Gordon, but no more than a couple bucks.

 

For a long time people ripped the Twins for passing on Jason Varitek to take Torii Hunter. Not only did that pan out in favor of the Twins, but each of the 18 teams who passed on Hunter would've been glad to have a do-over. Not to mention the poor fans of the Mariners, who picked first and didn't screw up the no-brainer of the century. Until later. Alex Rodriquez. Ouch.

 

only a few bucks?

 

Here are Turner's WAR the last three years:

3.3

2.8

4.6

 

His projections for next year are for more than that. The odds of any player in the minors doing that are low, let alone Gordon. 

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Turner was hyped as the top pick early in the draft season, and fell off. You can do this a million different ways, and it’s sort of pointless, but in retrospect, it would have been great if the Twins had taken Turner, or Aaron Nola, who posted college numbers throughout his draft season that look a lot like the numbers he put up for Philly last year.

Also in retrospect, I’m sure fans of other teams wish they had drafted Berrios and Kiriloff when they had the chance.

If I remember right, the Twins were also very high on both Turner and Nola before that draft. Looks like they settled on the wrong player at this point. But at the same point I would guess critics were saying the Twins erred in picking Mauer over Prior. I'm not going to say Gordon will turn into Mauer, but things may click to make him a servicable player. And who knows what the future holds for the others.

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but surprised that he see's Romero as a solid starter.  I thought a fair number of scouts saw Romero as reliever a long time ago.

 

Will be interesting to see if his concerns about Brusdar come to fruition.

 

I like how he looks at things just hoping for more from the Twins Prospects.  Always fun to see what he has to say.

Romero developed a changeup, which is what Brus has been working on the past year.  But I'd honestly say two years ago, both would be destined for the backend of the pen; things look much more promising when you can have three average or plus pitches

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If memory serves, you were a Turner guy? Kudos if so.

Yeah Turner probably got hurt by prospect fatigue, where as Gordon got bumped by lineage excitement.

If memory serves me correctly (certainly not a sure bet...), there were a confluence of minor issues with Turner.

First, there were questions about his power projection. Remember, this was before the juiced-ball/statcast/launch-angle revolution of the last few years completely upended traditional expectations for player power development. The idea that Turner would end up showing 20hr/season power in the big leagues (and have a higher ISO in the majors than he managed in college) seemed like the absolute high end of his power projection at the time. But now we basically have to just take it in stride - almost everyone has 20hr/season power now.

Second, not everyone was convinced he would stay at shortstop due to arm strength issues.

Third, I think he had some lingering injury issues his junior year before drafted. 

 

Anyway, I think it was less prospect fatigue as much as concerns that he would be more like Billy Hamilton than he ultimately ended up.

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I thought the knock on Turner was his swing was too long, his BABIP was too high and people thought his hit tool might come up too short to get on base enough to use his speed.

Anyway, his weaknesses were clearly over stated which I’d think was due to over analysis since he was great in college when he wasn’t injured. I know I bit on the negative reviews; I also wanted the shiny, new, unknown Gordon.

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I thought the knock on Turner was his swing was too long, his BABIP was too high and people thought his hit tool might come up too short to get on base enough to use his speed.

 

Anyway, his weaknesses were clearly over stated which I’d think was due to over analysis since he was great in college when he wasn’t injured. I know I bit in the negative reviews; I also wanted the shiny, new, unknown Gordon.

I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)

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I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)

Good thing the Twins didn't take JJ Schwarz (remember him? Didn't think so) over Royce Lewis.

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If memory serves me correctly (certainly not a sure bet...), there were a confluence of minor issues with Turner.

First, there were questions about his power projection. Remember, this was before the juiced-ball/statcast/launch-angle revolution of the last few years completely upended traditional expectations for player power development. The idea that Turner would end up showing 20hr/season power in the big leagues (and have a higher ISO in the majors than he managed in college) seemed like the absolute high end of his power projection at the time. But now we basically have to just take it in stride - almost everyone has 20hr/season power now.

Second, not everyone was convinced he would stay at shortstop due to arm strength issues.

Third, I think he had some lingering injury issues his junior year before drafted. 

 

Anyway, I think it was less prospect fatigue as much as concerns that he would be more like Billy Hamilton than he ultimately ended up.

 

This was a really big deal... I know personally his lack of power had me going meh (pretty sure I wanted pitching too)... but that was the big downside to Turner. Hindsight is definitely 20/20... and like everyone else, I'd love a do-over at this point..

 

That said, I wouldn't write Gordon off just yet. It will be interesting to see if things change due to changes in the team's strength/conditioning guys. 

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back to the original post...

 

But I'm somewhat curious about Law's lack of love to Graterol. He's always been an upside guy, and you cannot really argue with Graterol's celing right now. Even though Law didn't care for Berrios, he still found himself in Law's top 100....

 

Legitimately wondering why.

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I know very little about how the top picks of the draft are figured out. But a strategy that seems to work is to find guys that are considered #1 picks and then lost their luster with a bad spring or an injury before the draft. Trea Turner, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Adrian Peterson types. (If you squint, Kyle Gibson could fit that description.)

And I will note that the Twins pick this year (12 or 13?) is a pretty good spot to grab someone who fits this description, that doesn’t seem like a sure bet, but has lots of upside.

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back to the original post...

 

But I'm somewhat curious about Law's lack of love to Graterol. He's always been an upside guy, and you cannot really argue with Graterol's celing right now. Even though Law didn't care for Berrios, he still found himself in Law's top 100....

 

Legitimately wondering why.

Graterol is just outside of Law's top 100. There's not really an appreciable difference between being ranked 90 and 108. Could just be a few extra prospects he likes more around the league, could be that Graterol has already undergone Tommy John and Berrios hadn't, etc.

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