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I came across this rumor about Thor and the Mets and had to ask....


Brandon
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So apparently this still has some legs?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/31784-i-came-across-this-rumor-and-had-to-ask/?fromsearch=1

 

The gist I got there was NY was looking for major league talent at OF, IF and C. I would offer:

 

Buxton

Gordon

Castro

Gonsalves

Apologies, I had it seen that other thread. Clearly some strong opinions there, and views that Lewis or Kiriloff would need to be in the trade. I don’t know if I agree. The Twins have a very deep system, and also a lot of very young, recently established players.

 

For example, a deal of:

Rosario, May, Romero and Graterol would certainly be painful to accept from the Twins standpoint. I don’t know if I’d want to do it.

 

However, if they then went out and signed David Robertson Andrew Miller and Michael Brantley, it looks more bearable, right?

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Something like Kepler, Graterol, Gordon and Garver might be enticing enough to the Mets, and we would be able to keep Lewis and Kiriloff. 

 

 

...but i'm guessing it's going to take one of the two to headline a package.

 

Edited by cmoss84
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I think it takes Lewis, Kepler and one of Romero / Gonsalves / Graterol for them to return your call.

If that’s the case, then why not just sign Keuchel (and or Eovaldi), not only because we actually need a left-handed starter (and recent WS experience), but mostly because I don’t think “Thor” is worth giving up the #7 prospect in all of baseball.

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Something like Kepler, Graterol, Gordon and Garver might be enticing enough to the Mets, and we would be able to keep Lewis and Kiriloff. 

 

 

...but i'm guessing it's going to take one of the two to headline a package.

 

I love all of these responses to trade rumors.  First, the Twins have very little chance of making any deal.   Second, including scraps like Kepler, Polanco, Castro or Garver gets you nothing.  Including Castro in any trade reduces the trade value, not enhances it.  

 

Lastly, we overrate the trade value of our prospects.  Gonsalves might still be a prospect, but he is a mid-level prospect at best and is a 24 year old that has 24 innings of MLB experience.  To make a deal for a 25 year old starter the Twins would have to include at least one of Lewis or Kirilloff (if not both), another upper tier prospect like Trevor Larnach, and a pitching prospect:  Romero, Enlow, or Graterol.  Maybe the Mets would really value 2 prospects and you could get away with just that, but that is what it would take.

 

To ask yourself if this is the case, what would you expect to get for JJ Berrios?  Would a package of Max Kepler, Mitch Garver, Nick Gordon, and Brudasar Graterol do it for you?  I think you would laugh at such an offer, and it can be very easily argued that Syndergaard is a better player.

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An ace with three years of control isn't worth a top prospect. Then apparently no one is.

 

These comments read just like what people said about never trading Buxton, and two or three years of his control are gone... With nothing to show.

 

A large number of people basically want this FO to stick to the Ryan plan, of never trading prospects for actual MLB players, at it's it reads this way. Three years of control. This isn't a win now move....

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An ace with three years of control isn't worth a top prospect. Then apparently no one is.

 

These comments read just like what people said about never trading Buxton, and two or three years of his control are gone... With nothing to show.

 

A large number of people basically want this FO to stick to the Ryan plan, of never trading prospects for actual MLB players, at it's it reads this way. Three years of control. This isn't a win now move....

I don't think it's fair to say that anyone who wouldn't trade Lewis thinks that Thor isn't "worth" a top prospect.

 

There are plenty of things at the store that are "worth" their sticker prices, but that doesn't mean I want to buy them.

 

If the Mets will take Kiriloff instead, then go for it. I'd rather keep Lewis though.

Prospects often bust, or don't become the stars they are supposed to, that is true.

But, sometimes they become superstars. And we could use one of those too, maybe more than we need an ace, even.

I'm not trading Lewis for anyone, even though there are plenty of players who are worth a prospect of his stature.

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Something like Kepler, Graterol, Gordon and Garver might be enticing enough to the Mets, and we would be able to keep Lewis and Kiriloff. 

 

 

...but i'm guessing it's going to take one of the two to headline a package.

 

I love all of these responses to trade rumors.  First, the Twins have very little chance of making any deal.   Second, including scraps like Kepler, Polanco, Castro or Garver gets you nothing.  Including Castro in any trade reduces the trade value, not enhances it.  

 

Lastly, we overrate the trade value of our prospects.  Gonsalves might still be a prospect, but he is a mid-level prospect at best and is a 24 year old that has 24 innings of MLB experience.  To make a deal for a 25 year old starter the Twins would have to include at least one of Lewis or Kirilloff (if not both), another upper tier prospect like Trevor Larnach, and a pitching prospect:  Romero, Enlow, or Graterol.  Maybe the Mets would really value 2 prospects and you could get away with just that, but that is what it would take.

 

To ask yourself if this is the case, what would you expect to get for JJ Berrios?  Would a package of Max Kepler, Mitch Garver, Nick Gordon, and Brudasar Graterol do it for you?  I think you would laugh at such an offer, and it can be very easily argued that Syndergaard is a better player.

*Not sure if you missed the part in bold-I'm sure it will take Lewis/Kiriloff to headline a deal. 

 

*I wouldn't exactly call Polanco or Kepler "scraps." I think they do have some value.

 

*I agree with you that we overvalue our prospects. I have been all about trading for multiple players-no matter who it takes.

 

*To answer your last question, I don't think that offer for Berrios would be laughed at. But Syndergaard is better/has higher ceiling. Berrios has one more year of control, so they have about the same value.

 

*The Mets situation seems rather odd to me. Are they buyers or sellers? Why trade Syndergaard with 3 cheap years left? Are they trying to get max value? Do they know something that nobody else does? Are they just putting their feelers out to see if they can get a Sale-like return?

 

The next few weeks are going to be fun!

 

 

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Here's the problem. Thor is a win now move. Trading guys that are part of the core such as Sano, Buxton, Kepler are going to open up other holes that need to be filled. Sano and Buxton definitely underperformed, and Kepler didn't progress as hoped, but I think trading any of those 3 is a mistake. Those 3 moving in the right direction is what will make or break this team.

 

To get Thor, this is probably how I'd do it.

  • First, you're probably moving one of our SPs for his spot. It's not really a value add per se, though if he's doing well, the Mets can flip him at the deadline, so one of Pineda/Odorizzi probably goes in this scenario. Likewise, they said they'd sign a FA pitcher. One of those guys is probably equivalent to what they'd go after.
  • Lewis (no way you get Thor without Lewis). You can sub AK here if you'd like. I think I'd rather hold on to him, as his bat will play anywhere and fits more of our needs in the long term. Our farm is pretty deep in the MI, and Lewis might be the top MI prospect available this offseason, so I think I'd dangle him.
  • One of Thorpe/Graterol/Romero. They will want a better SP prospect. One of these 3 has to go. I'd lean towards Thorpe personally, but I don't see a scenario where all of these guys stay. One will go. Possibly 2 (though I'd hold out pretty hard on that).
  •  One of our remaining AAA pitchers (Gonsalves, Wells, Stewart, Slegers, Littell). None of these guys are exciting, but we have too many, and if the Mets are rebuilding, a guy like this can be valuable. It will take some development on their part, but it's a lower risk move that will likely be able to net them some prospects or be a key piece when they are ready to contend again.
  • One or two high upside lotto picks in the low minors. 

Something like that would probably get it done. Not many teams are deep enough to offer more. They would be walking out with a top 10 prospect, someone else in the top 100, and some decent upside as well. Personally, I'd want to reverse Santana them, but their current GM is a bit smarter in this area than Bill Smith ever was.

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We could include a third team. The Mariners come to mind. We could send them some prospects for Santana and a piece NY would want. Mariners get cost savings and prospects, we get a 1B that pushes Austin/ Cron to DH and Syndergaard, Mets get prospect from Mariners and stuff from us too. I'll let other posters fill in blanks or restructure this for me.

Edited by Brandon
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Rooker (or Sano), Cave, Romero, May and Gordon for Thor? Hell no.

 

Are you serious? For real?

 

One of Rooker/Sano = question mark prospect that strikes out tons. 

Cave - 4th or 5th outfielder

Romero - possible 2-4 starter

May - oft injured guy that hasn't been able to be counted on much yet

Gordon - utility infielder at best projects to be nothing special

 

 

I do that trade in a heartbeat if that's all it takes and laugh my arse off the whole time. 

The Mets would never do that deal though. 

Edited by Battle ur tail off
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I don't get why people think we can trade B and C level guys for one of the better pitchers in the national league that is young and under control. 

 

To get this guy, they are gonna ask for your 2 top prospects, plus someone from your starting 5. Scrap heap guys won't do it. 

 

They will want 2 of Lewis, Graterol and Kiriloff. You aren't getting by without including at least one of them unless you give up Rosario or Berrios. 

 

If you can make the trade without giving up one of those top 3 prospects and only one of Rosario, Buxton or Sano, I'd let them take their pick of 3 or 4 of anyone else on the roster and minor league system.

 

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Thor is controlled for 3 years......I'm confused how adding a guy that is young, and under control for three years, is a "win now" move. It's hard to add a guy for longer, without signing an older FA for a longer term. 

I have come to the conclusion that Twins fans really just want to be the new lovable losers.

We can't spend money, we can't trade prospects, lets just rebuild a dynasty with minor leaguers.

 

Have the Twins ever had a pitching prospect as good as Thor? and fans don't want him with three years of control because it will cost minor league guys that may or may not ever make a impact in the majors?

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Here's the problem. Thor is a win now move. Trading guys that are part of the core such as Sano, Buxton, Kepler are going to open up other holes that need to be filled. Sano and Buxton definitely underperformed, and Kepler didn't progress as hoped, but I think trading any of those 3 is a mistake. Those 3 moving in the right direction is what will make or break this team.

 

To get Thor, this is probably how I'd do it.

  • First, you're probably moving one of our SPs for his spot. It's not really a value add per se, though if he's doing well, the Mets can flip him at the deadline, so one of Pineda/Odorizzi probably goes in this scenario. Likewise, they said they'd sign a FA pitcher. One of those guys is probably equivalent to what they'd go after.
  • Lewis (no way you get Thor without Lewis). You can sub AK here if you'd like. I think I'd rather hold on to him, as his bat will play anywhere and fits more of our needs in the long term. Our farm is pretty deep in the MI, and Lewis might be the top MI prospect available this offseason, so I think I'd dangle him.
  • One of Thorpe/Graterol/Romero. They will want a better SP prospect. One of these 3 has to go. I'd lean towards Thorpe personally, but I don't see a scenario where all of these guys stay. One will go. Possibly 2 (though I'd hold out pretty hard on that).
  •  One of our remaining AAA pitchers (Gonsalves, Wells, Stewart, Slegers, Littell). None of these guys are exciting, but we have too many, and if the Mets are rebuilding, a guy like this can be valuable. It will take some development on their part, but it's a lower risk move that will likely be able to net them some prospects or be a key piece when they are ready to contend again.
  • One or two high upside lotto picks in the low minors. 

Something like that would probably get it done. Not many teams are deep enough to offer more. They would be walking out with a top 10 prospect, someone else in the top 100, and some decent upside as well. Personally, I'd want to reverse Santana them, but their current GM is a bit smarter in this area than Bill Smith ever was.

This looks like a pretty accurate description of what it will take to get him.

 

I don't have a problem with making a win now move. And "win now" means a 3 year window...all while our division is weak and rebuilding. If you're not willing to make this kind of move now, especially when we have $ for FA, when do you???

Edited by cmoss84
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I don't get why people think we can trade B and C level guys for one of the better pitchers in the national league that is young and under control. 

 

To get this guy, they are gonna ask for your 2 top prospects, plus someone from your starting 5. Scrap heap guys won't do it. 

 

They will want 2 of Lewis, Graterol and Kiriloff. You aren't getting by without including at least one of them unless you give up Rosario or Berrios. 

 

If you can make the trade without giving up one of those top 3 prospects and only one of Rosario, Buxton or Sano, I'd let them take their pick of 3 or 4 of anyone else on the roster and minor league system.

 

We are suggesting players that they said they are looking for.    Young cost controlled position players and bullpen  I am guessing before the Cano trade they didnt need a pitcher to replace Thor per se but they may need one now.    While we are suggesting players who are solid but inexpensive, Those players may allow NY to spend more money elsewhere on the team.  I think a third team would have to be included as the Mets are in a win now mode and wouldnt want to wait for Lewis or Killeroff.  

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Thor is controlled for 3 years......I'm confused how adding a guy that is young, and under control for three years, is a "win now" move. It's hard to add a guy for longer, without signing an older FA for a longer term. 

 

Because of the price you pay to get him. That's why it's a win now move. 

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This looks like a pretty accurate description of what it will take to get him.

 

I don't have a problem with making a win now move. And "win now" means a 3 year window...all while our division is weak and rebuilding. If you're not willing to make this kind of move now, especially when we have $ for FA, when do you???

 

I'm in a agreement here... at least the more I chew on it I am. 3 years of control for a guy who will be a top 10 AL pitcher (baring injury) is worth the price of admission. With a weak central, this would definitely beef up the rotation. 

 

The reason not to do it is that the team has bigger holes to fill... or if they really don't think Buxton and Sano are fixable. I'm a lot less worried about Miguel than Byron, but there's definitely some sentiment around here that says otherwise. If we see a repeat performance from our two former top 10 prospects, Thor isn't going to make enough of a dent to get us over the top at which point (if he's still performing), you can potentially get some of that back.

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We are suggesting players that they said they are looking for.    Young cost controlled position players and bullpen  I am guessing before the Cano trade they didnt need a pitcher to replace Thor per se but they may need one now.    While we are suggesting players who are solid but inexpensive, Those players may allow NY to spend more money elsewhere on the team.  I think a third team would have to be included as the Mets are in a win now mode and wouldnt want to wait for Lewis or Killeroff.  

 

If the Mets want to win now, they aren't trading Thor. They certainly aren't going to trade him for Buxton and Kepler. Those may be young and cost controlled, but hardly sure things. 

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