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Three Twins Players Make Keith Law's Top 50 Prospects


Seth Stohs

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22181590/keith-law-2018-top-100-prospects-nos-50-1-introducing-tomorrow-superstars

 

Subscription needed, but three Minnesota Twins prospects make Keith Law's Top 50 prospect ranking on ESPN.com. Interesting as well that no Twins were in his 51-100 range. 

 

Royce Lewis was #25.

Nick Gordon was #37.

Fernando Romero was #47. 

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I was really encouraged by the description of Gordon's defense. I had forgotten that he was also considered a possible pitcher in the draft, and the idea that he has a plus arm that he only shows when he really needs to is interesting. A plus arm can make up for a lot of range issues in the bigs. 

 Sounds like reports/views on his defense at SS are very very mixed. I've heard very conflicting things. Good to hear some think his D is still has a lot of potential.

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IMO, people are way toooooooooooo down on Gordon. We'll see.

 

It was also encouraging to see Law's take on Gordon's miserable 2nd half: that he is body just isn't big/mature enough to hold up to a full season like that yet. If so, last year's workload (and getting older/bigger) should help him hold up better this year. 

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I don't have insider. Does Klaw think Romero will be a starting pitcher or a dominant closer? He has the short stature that we often heard about when he discussed Berrios.

 

"he doesn't have a ton of ground to cover to be at least a mid-rotation starter in the majors."

 

KLAW loves his FB, likes his slider, and thinks the changeup is developing. If he gets the change up working, he thinks he has a shot as a number 3 type, if I read it correctly.

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IMO, people are way toooooooooooo down on Gordon. We'll see.

I hope that's the case.  I count myself as more 'worried' than down on him.  Primarily worried about the commitment to the profession.  Not doubting it because I don't know, but worrying about it.  Sounds like he might be in a bit of a unique position with other attractive options in terms of life-style and money, etc.

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http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22181590/keith-law-2018-top-100-prospects-nos-50-1-introducing-tomorrow-superstars

 

Subscription needed, but three Minnesota Twins prospects make Keith Law's Top 50 prospect ranking on ESPN.com. Interesting as well that no Twins were in his 51-100 range. 

 

Royce Lewis was #25.

Nick Gordon was #37.

Fernando Romero was #47.

So that would be 3%, which is average for 1 team out of 30 major league teams. Is anyone else disappointed, considering the recent high draft picks which the Twins have had since 2012?
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So that would be 3%, which is average for 1 team out of 30 major league teams. Is anyone else disappointed, considering the recent high draft picks which the Twins have had since 2012?

 

Only slightly. Three in the top 50 is great, though. Also, I would bet money we see 1-3 guys in the "next 10-20" list, if he does one.

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So that would be 3%, which is average for 1 team out of 30 major league teams. Is anyone else disappointed, considering the recent high draft picks which the Twins have had since 2012?

But 6% in top 50. Seems like a good deal.

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So that would be 3%, which is average for 1 team out of 30 major league teams. Is anyone else disappointed, considering the recent high draft picks which the Twins have had since 2012?

 

No, I don't think it's cause for disappointment at all. The only possible disappointment out of six first round draft selections from 2012-present is Kohl Stewart. Kiriloff and Jay might be on this list but for injuries. Many prospect people still like both of them. Buxton, Lewis, and Gordon are the other three. I'm not sure which organizations have a decidedly better set of results.

 

This list tells us so very little about the results of those drafts and for that matter don't inform us that much about the health of the overall prospect pipeline. But factor in that we're already getting contributions from the 2012 draft from Berrios, Rogers, Duffey, and Chargois, and from more recent drafts too: Hildenberger, Garver, Gonsalves, Granite, Slegers, and Curtiss, for example. And we're getting good prospect buzz about Rooker, Enlow, Wade, Badoo, Diaz, and Miranda, to name a few.

 

Remember, this is one list, Between BA and KLAW, six Twins prospects have been singled out. Kiriloff, Badoo, Jay, Graterol, and Diaz made neither list but Fangraphs and others have had plenty of good things to say about these guys. For example, Sickles will probably hand out final grades of B or better to more Twins prospects than all but maybe a half-dozen teams, maybe as many as a dozen and a half prospects. In comparison, KC will have about 3, DET will have less than half as many as the Twins, and both CWS and CLE won't have more than about a dozen.

 

In summary, I think we'll find that when all the lists come in, the Twins will be represented impressively enough, far better than average. The system is in pretty good shape. And it's getting better because so many of their higher-ceiling prospects are still a bit under the prospect radar, and a handful of the better prospects are coming back from injuries.

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Always interesting and instructive to see that Gordon barely squeezed onto BA's Top 100 and Romero was left off, and yet KLAW thinks they're two of the 50 best prospects out there. 

 

I like it. I think for way too long there was way too much group think in prospect rankings. Divergent opinions basically boiled down to a difference of 20 spots or so. 

 

Prospect evaluations are so subjective and so volatile that we should be seeing significant anomalies among evaluators. It helps me believe that the whole process is bordering on legitimacy if they are each unique.

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So that would be 3%, which is average for 1 team out of 30 major league teams. Is anyone else disappointed, considering the recent high draft picks which the Twins have had since 2012?

No. Remember, the 2012 draft has already graduated (5 major leaguers). 2013-2015 were high pick years, 2016 wasn't. 2017 got both Lewis and Rooker ranked on at least one list. I expect when all of the ranking places come out the Twins will probably have 8 guys ranked in someones top 100 (Lewis, Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Rooker, Javier, Baddoo and Graterol). My guess is that we're probably a top 10 system right now.

 

Here's a quick draft reminder:

2013 - Stewart, Gonsalves and Garver are the big names and Aaron Slegers made a few ML starts last year. Solid draft. The downside is that there is no difference maker in this draft. There's no Buxton or Berrios. At best, you have a few backend starters and a backup catcher. Not great but it's actually not bad either considering the bust rate for ML drafts.

2014 - Gordon, Burdi, Hildy and Curtiss. I hated this draft then and I still hate it. We went for fire ball relievers (man, Mitch Keller over Burdi would've been nice) but Gordon is a top prospect for Klaw and a consensus top 100 guy in baseball. Hildy and Curtiss could be solid bullpen arms. But I like Gordon and I think he'll be a good MLer so it's ok.

2015 - We drafted Jay early and then didn't have a second round pick b/c we signed Santana and then our next pick didn't sign either. LaMonte Wade might be a steal but basically this draft (and how you feel about 13-15 probably) depends on Jay. Is he the next Andrew Miller type? Or is he an injury prone arm that never puts it together. Injuries suck but drafting Jay made sense. 

2016 - Kiriloff has already been on several top 100 lists. He should hit. You'll probably see Baddoo sneak onto some top 100 lists or at least some honorable mentions. 

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Always interesting and instructive to see that Gordon barely squeezed onto BA's Top 100 and Romero was left off, and yet KLAW thinks they're two of the 50 best prospects out there.

Thats usually why I wait to see em in the bigs and form my own opinion.

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So that would be 3%, which is average for 1 team out of 30 major league teams. Is anyone else disappointed, considering the recent high draft picks which the Twins have had since 2012?

 

Would you feel better if Buxton was still in triple A sitting at 90th?

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Particularly with increased shift usage, range becomes less and less important

I was really encouraged by the description of Gordon's defense. I had forgotten that he was also considered a possible pitcher in the draft, and the idea that he has a plus arm that he only shows when he really needs to is interesting. A plus arm can make up for a lot of range issues in the bigs. 

 

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With MLB.com posting its top 100 prospects last night, the Twins now have 6 players getting top 100 rankings across MLB.com, Baseball America, and Keith Law.   Interesting how they're all in agreement on Lewis, but not on any of the others.  In fact, Lewis and Gordon are the only Twins who received votes across all three rankings.  

 

Royce Lewis                       MLB 20      BA 24      KL 25

Nick Gordon                       MLB 80      BA 93      KL 37

Fernando Romero              MLB 68      BA n/r      KL 47

Stephen Gonsalves            MLB 78      BA 97      KL n/r

Brent Rooker                      MLB n/r      BA 92      KL n/r

Wander Javier                    MLB n/r      BA 95      KL n/r

 

 

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With MLB.com posting its top 100 prospects last night, the Twins now have 6 players getting top 100 rankings across MLB.com, Baseball America, and Keith Law.   Interesting how they're all in agreement on Lewis, but not on any of the others.  In fact, Lewis and Gordon are the only Twins who received votes across all three rankings.  

 

Royce Lewis                       MLB 20      BA 24      KL 25

Nick Gordon                       MLB 80      BA 93      KL 37

Fernando Romero              MLB 68      BA n/r      KL 47

Stephen Gonsalves            MLB 78      BA 97      KL n/r

Brent Rooker                      MLB n/r      BA 92      KL n/r

Wander Javier                    MLB n/r      BA 95      KL n/r

That all changes after this year. Rooker will be a Top 50 guy by years end...besides Brent himself, I'm probably the highest on Rooker. Also, that evaluation is based on little to no skill in evaluating talent, but, I'm gonna ride that horse until it dies. :)

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With MLB.com posting its top 100 prospects last night, the Twins now have 6 players getting top 100 rankings across MLB.com, Baseball America, and Keith Law.   Interesting how they're all in agreement on Lewis, but not on any of the others.  In fact, Lewis and Gordon are the only Twins who received votes across all three rankings.  

 

Royce Lewis                       MLB 20      BA 24      KL 25

Nick Gordon                       MLB 80      BA 93      KL 37

Fernando Romero              MLB 68      BA n/r      KL 47

Stephen Gonsalves            MLB 78      BA 97      KL n/r

Brent Rooker                      MLB n/r      BA 92      KL n/r

Wander Javier                    MLB n/r      BA 95      KL n/r

I have to suppose that most teams have cases like these, though. The bottom line for me is that we have some decent prospects, but only one that really bowls people over. On the positive side, these prospect rankings are always wrong in hindsight, except about the most obvious top-tier guys.

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Prospect evaluations are so subjective and so volatile that we should be seeing significant anomalies among evaluators. It helps me believe that the whole process is bordering on legitimacy if they are each unique.

 

There are so many dimensions on which to evaluate a young player that it's not clear that a univariate ranking makes sense. How do you compare pitchers vs. hitters? How do you weight together potential, time to majors, speed, power, glove, durability, bat speed, teachability, and, for pitchers, power, control, deception, and overall craft? At the very least it would make sense to have two rankings for hitters and two for pitchers: one for players expected to reach the majors within two years and one for likely overall eventual impact once they arrive.

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There are so many dimensions on which to evaluate a young player that it's not clear that a univariate ranking makes sense. How do you compare pitchers vs. hitters?

It's true that there's not a crisp and clear definition of how to do rankings. OTOH teams trade hitters for pitchers all the time, so there has to be some kind of way to bridge the difference.

 

Ranks are just for fun, and a way to concretely say who we think is good. It doesn't make sense to try and push them farther than that.

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No. Remember, the 2012 draft has already graduated (5 major leaguers). 2013-2015 were high pick years, 2016 wasn't. 2017 got both Lewis and Rooker ranked on at least one list. I expect when all of the ranking places come out the Twins will probably have 8 guys ranked in someones top 100 (Lewis, Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Rooker, Javier, Baddoo and Graterol). My guess is that we're probably a top 10 system right now.

 

Here's a quick draft reminder:

2013 - Stewart, Gonsalves and Garver are the big names and Aaron Slegers made a few ML starts last year. Solid draft. The downside is that there is no difference maker in this draft. There's no Buxton or Berrios. At best, you have a few backend starters and a backup catcher. Not great but it's actually not bad either considering the bust rate for ML drafts.

2014 - Gordon, Burdi, Hildy and Curtiss. I hated this draft then and I still hate it. We went for fire ball relievers (man, Mitch Keller over Burdi would've been nice) but Gordon is a top prospect for Klaw and a consensus top 100 guy in baseball. Hildy and Curtiss could be solid bullpen arms. But I like Gordon and I think he'll be a good MLer so it's ok.

2015 - We drafted Jay early and then didn't have a second round pick b/c we signed Santana and then our next pick didn't sign either. LaMonte Wade might be a steal but basically this draft (and how you feel about 13-15 probably) depends on Jay. Is he the next Andrew Miller type? Or is he an injury prone arm that never puts it together. Injuries suck but drafting Jay made sense. 

2016 - Kiriloff has already been on several top 100 lists. He should hit. You'll probably see Baddoo sneak onto some top 100 lists or at least some honorable mentions. 

 

Don't forget the other back up C from the 2013 draft who graduated to the majors last year as a rule 5 pick for the Reds Stuart Turner.  I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the other relievers from those drafts make it up to the majors at some point either as a solid option for a few seasons or for just a few outings.

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