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Which pitcher gets sent down to Rochester today?


Seth Stohs
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Anthony Swarzak is expected to be activated from the Disabled List in time for Friday's game. Since the Twins play this afternoon and don't play tomorrow, the "other" half of that move could happen as soon as the end of today's game. So, who do you think that the Twins will send down to Rochester?

 

Luis Perdomo?

Jeff Manship?

One of the starters?

Maybe whichever one gets into today's game?

Maybe someone else will get hurt today?

 

What are your thoughts?

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Let's look at the numbers of Gray and the 4 most recent bullpen call-ups from Rochester:

 

Manship : 9.16 ERA, 1.875 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.43 K/BB

Perdomo : 1.50 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 0.43 K/BB

 

Gray: 5.05 ERA, 1.489 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 1.1 K/BB

 

Fien: 1.59 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 K/BB

Robertson: 6.59 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 3.6 K/BB

 

I hope the last 2 stay. Fien pitched very well (pleasant surprise) and Robertson leads the team in K/9. As far as who goes from the other 3, I suspect that this decision is more about 2013. In other words, if the Twins are not sure that someone could be on the 2013 team he will go. Perdomo like Gray are out of options and need to be DFA'd. Manship will be out of options in 2013 so he will need to be added to the roster. The one of the 3 who the Twins feel fits their plans less in 2013 will be the one that should go. At this point, because Manship, Like Swarzak, is the long man and he has options, unlike the other 2 is more likely to go (and start for the AAA Twins' team)

 

Edit: Looks like Perdomo has 2 option years left, so if that is true he is game as well...

Edited by Thrylos
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Well... I guess both Manship and Perdomo are heading to Rochester with swarzak being activated.The position player has to be Parmelee... right?

 

More deck chair movement. Too bad for Mansihp (sic). "Nice job out there today, kid. The traveling secretary has your ticket to Rochester".

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Why not Arcia called up

 

The problem with that is that it will start his clock plus the Rock Cats are in a playoff chase. Parmelee's clock has stated and logically, he will be it. I can also see them DFA someone like Tosoni or Perdomo or Nishioka and giving their spot to someone like Matt Carson (who deserves the call up) but not sure they will do that.

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Maybe this is Devries' final audition. If his ERA balloons over 5, send him down and put Swarzak in his spot.

 

Yeah after today, Devries should be on the hot seat too.

 

 

Even after today, De Vries has been the second best starting pitcher for the Twins this season (and still leads the starters in K/9.) He earned a spot in the rotation. So did Deduno. You got to see whether these guys are part of the equation (as number 4 and 5 after Diamond) for 2013. So they got to pitch. Blackburn should be in the hot seat and I don't know how many more times Duensing needs to prove that he is great in the pen but iffy as a starter. Very much Perkins like. I am all for giving Swarzak another chance to start (he did have sporadic success there previously), but Duensing (or Blackburn) should move to the pen instead of demoting the Twins' second best starter.

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Manship, hope we do not need 2 long relievers, thought DeVires would also be OK with me. It should be Blackburn, but that might wait until next spring to DFA him, or possibily until Gibson is ready next year.

At end of year remove Grey, Robertson, Manship, DeVeries(though he makes a good triple A starter),

Need to do major work for 2 starters. Hendricks looks like Triple A starter to me (no out pitch)

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Maybe this is Devries' final audition. If his ERA balloons over 5, send him down and put Swarzak in his spot.

 

Yeah after today, Devries should be on the hot seat too.

 

 

Even after today, De Vries has been the second best starting pitcher for the Twins this season (and still leads the starters in K/9.) He earned a spot in the rotation. So did Deduno. You got to see whether these guys are part of the equation (as number 4 and 5 after Diamond) for 2013. So they got to pitch. Blackburn should be in the hot seat and I don't know how many more times Duensing needs to prove that he is great in the pen but iffy as a starter. Very much Perkins like. I am all for giving Swarzak another chance to start (he did have sporadic success there previously), but Duensing (or Blackburn) should move to the pen instead of demoting the Twins' second best starter.

 

How so? Diamond and Deduno have been more effective than Devries. The 3rd best starter on a rotation like this is nothing to be proud of. Devries did better than expected and his dream came true this season. I'm happy for him and that's cool. The Twins aren't a miracle network (unlike their High A affiliate) for players who won't cut it at the professional level, however. If the Twins were to trot out the same guys as they did this year, it would be a disaster. Devries is an extremely risky low ceiling player who has pitched inconsistently for 60 Innings. I hope you don't think Walters should get a shot as well. I for one would like to see some free agents on the team for 2013. Not AAA players. I'm not even sold on Deduno right now.

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Maybe this is Devries' final audition. If his ERA balloons over 5, send him down and put Swarzak in his spot.

 

Yeah after today, Devries should be on the hot seat too.

 

 

Even after today, De Vries has been the second best starting pitcher for the Twins this season (and still leads the starters in K/9.) He earned a spot in the rotation. So did Deduno. You got to see whether these guys are part of the equation (as number 4 and 5 after Diamond) for 2013. So they got to pitch. Blackburn should be in the hot seat and I don't know how many more times Duensing needs to prove that he is great in the pen but iffy as a starter. Very much Perkins like. I am all for giving Swarzak another chance to start (he did have sporadic success there previously), but Duensing (or Blackburn) should move to the pen instead of demoting the Twins' second best starter.

 

How so? Diamond and Deduno have been more effective than Devries. The 3rd best starter on a rotation like this is nothing to be proud of. Devries did better than expected and his dream came true this season. I'm happy for him and that's cool. The Twins aren't a miracle network (unlike their High A affiliate) for players who won't cut it at the professional level, however. If the Twins were to trot out the same guys as they did this year, it would be a disaster. Devries is an extremely risky low ceiling player who has pitched inconsistently for 60 Innings. I hope you don't think Walters should get a shot as well. I for one would like to see some free agents on the team for 2013. Not AAA players. I'm not even sold on Deduno right now.

 

Yep, other than Diamond this rotation needs the detonator set to obliterate. Next year's rotation better not include the names Devries, Blackburn, Deduno, Walters, Duensing or Swarzak. Diamond will be fine, Hendriks needs the chance and has a higher ceiling than any of them, 2 free agents who can actually pitch and one of the aforementioned motley crew until Gibson is ready in June.

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[

 

 

Even after today, De Vries has been the second best starting pitcher for the Twins this season (and still leads the starters in K/9.)

How so? Diamond and Deduno have been more effective than Devries. The 3rd best starter on a rotation like this is nothing to be proud of. Devries did better than expected and his dream came true this season. I'm happy for him and that's cool. The Twins aren't a miracle network (unlike their High A affiliate) for players who won't cut it at the professional level, however. If the Twins were to trot out the same guys as they did this year, it would be a disaster. Devries is an extremely risky low ceiling player who has pitched inconsistently for 60 Innings. I hope you don't think Walters should get a shot as well. I for one would like to see some free agents on the team for 2013. Not AAA players. I'm not even sold on Deduno right now.

 

Here is my ranking of the Twins' rotation this season. And I am including only pitchers who are currently wearing a Twins uniform. De Vries' numbers do not include today's start (so they might go down a bit) and Duensing's and Swarzak's include their numbers only as starters this season:

 

Diamond: 2.97 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 3.78 K/BB (.295 BABIP) - 16.2 xPE

De Vries: 4.77 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.50 K/BB (.254 BABIP) - 16 xPE

Pavano: 6.00 ERA, 1.397 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 4.13 K/BB (.330 BABIP) - 15.8 xPE

Hendriks: 7.04 ERA, 1.748 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.30 K/BB (.353 BABIP) - 8.6 xPE

Swarzak: 8.35 ERA, 1.855 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 2.50 K/BB (.368 BABIP) - 8.4 xPE

Deunsing: 6.34 ERA, 1.696 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.38 K/BB (.350 BABIP) - 7.6 xPE

Walters: 5.40 ERA, 1.527 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.64 K/BB (.315 BABIP) - 6.5 xPE

Blackburn: 7.33 ERA, 1.682 WHIP, 4 K/9, 1.64 K/BB (.327 BABIP) - 4.4 xPE

Deduno: 3.38 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 0.93 K/BB (.252 BABIP) - 3.3 xPE

 

Took me a while to calculate xPE (expected pitching effectiveness, if you want you can read more about it here) and this is how I like to look at pitching performance. Correlates pretty decency with xFIP but I never understood why xFIP and FIP put so much weight in HRs (which in my mind have a lot to do with park and luck) so I do not use them, but they also are peripheral number derived. xPE is a fairly fast calculation as well and does not use weights like FIP and xFIP, but again they are closely correlated with xPE putting more stress on BB allowed and treating all hits the same (unlike xFIP and FIP that weigh HRs and multi base hits more... and it is a pain to derive without excel)

 

League average xPE is about 10. So the Twins had 3 SPs above average and a couple close.

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[

 

 

Even after today, De Vries has been the second best starting pitcher for the Twins this season (and still leads the starters in K/9.)

How so? Diamond and Deduno have been more effective than Devries. The 3rd best starter on a rotation like this is nothing to be proud of. Devries did better than expected and his dream came true this season. I'm happy for him and that's cool. The Twins aren't a miracle network (unlike their High A affiliate) for players who won't cut it at the professional level, however. If the Twins were to trot out the same guys as they did this year, it would be a disaster. Devries is an extremely risky low ceiling player who has pitched inconsistently for 60 Innings. I hope you don't think Walters should get a shot as well. I for one would like to see some free agents on the team for 2013. Not AAA players. I'm not even sold on Deduno right now.

 

Here is my ranking of the Twins' rotation this season. And I am including only pitchers who are currently wearing a Twins uniform. De Vries' numbers do not include today's start (so they might go down a bit) and Duensing's and Swarzak's include their numbers only as starters this season:

 

Diamond: 2.97 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 3.78 K/BB (.295 BABIP) - 16.2 xPE

De Vries: 4.77 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.50 K/BB (.254 BABIP) - 16 xPE

Pavano: 6.00 ERA, 1.397 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 4.13 K/BB (.330 BABIP) - 15.8 xPE

Hendriks: 7.04 ERA, 1.748 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.30 K/BB (.353 BABIP) - 8.6 xPE

Swarzak: 8.35 ERA, 1.855 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 2.50 K/BB (.368 BABIP) - 8.4 xPE

Deunsing: 6.34 ERA, 1.696 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.38 K/BB (.350 BABIP) - 7.6 xPE

Walters: 5.40 ERA, 1.527 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.64 K/BB (.315 BABIP) - 6.5 xPE

Blackburn: 7.33 ERA, 1.682 WHIP, 4 K/9, 1.64 K/BB (.327 BABIP) - 4.4 xPE

Deduno: 3.38 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 0.93 K/BB (.252 BABIP) - 3.3 xPE

 

Took me a while to calculate xPE (expected pitching effectiveness, if you want you can read more about it here) and this is how I like to look at pitching performance. Correlates pretty decency with xFIP but I never understood why xFIP and FIP put so much weight in HRs (which in my mind have a lot to do with park and luck) so I do not use them, but they also are peripheral number derived. xPE is a fairly fast calculation as well and does not use weights like FIP and xFIP, but again they are closely correlated with xPE putting more stress on BB allowed and treating all hits the same (unlike xFIP and FIP that weigh HRs and multi base hits more... and it is a pain to derive without excel)

 

League average xPE is about 10. So the Twins had 3 SPs above average and a couple close.

 

That's interesting and I'll look at it. A little complicated and over the top for my thinking. Those must be all the metrics to calculate I would assume. The problem I have with that is Pavano 5.8 over your 10 'average'. He's carried solely by an excellent 1.1 BB/9. The ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are all bad. I really dislike BABIP for pitchers. I'm more comfortable using it with batters. I could talk about how much I love OPS, but I have a question you might be able to answer. There's a stat for everything in baseball right? I have been thinking about OPS, but adding total SBs to the Total Bases on top. I think it may be a more accurate for true offensive output since it accounts for speed. I wouldn't subtract CS because faster players have other advantages on the base path that could negate it. Like getting to 3rd base instead of 2nd on long single. Unrelated, but I'm curious to see if it's been done and where I could find it.

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That's interesting and I'll look at it. A little complicated and over the top for my thinking. Those must be all the metrics to calculate I would assume. The problem I have with that is Pavano 5.8 over your 10 'average'. He's carried solely by an excellent 1.1 BB/9. The ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are all bad. I really dislike BABIP for pitchers. I'm more comfortable using it with batters. I could talk about how much I love OPS, but I have a question you might be able to answer. There's a stat for everything in baseball right? I have been thinking about OPS, but adding total SBs to the Total Bases on top. I think it may be a more accurate for true offensive output since it accounts for speed. I wouldn't subtract CS because faster players have other advantages on the base path that could negate it. Like getting to 3rd base instead of 2nd on long single. Unrelated, but I'm curious to see if it's been done and where I could find it.

 

I think some of the early Bill James derivatives, like Runs Created, are close to what you are talking about. Here is the formula explained (and yes it is a pain to calculate. but) Baseball reference has is both as total (RC) and per game (RC/G). Here are the 2012 Twins' numbers at BR. There are other similar stats, but I like RC for some reason.

 

 

About Pavano (and the rest of the pitchers ) the ERA is actually there just for looks. I think that it is practically meaningless. BTW one of Nishioka's errors in Cleveland was called a hit today, so Duensing has added to his ERA. Makes really no sense to use for predicting performance or even describing how well he pitched.

Edited by Thrylos
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That's interesting and I'll look at it. A little complicated and over the top for my thinking. Those must be all the metrics to calculate I would assume. The problem I have with that is Pavano 5.8 over your 10 'average'. He's carried solely by an excellent 1.1 BB/9. The ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are all bad. I really dislike BABIP for pitchers. I'm more comfortable using it with batters. I could talk about how much I love OPS, but I have a question you might be able to answer. There's a stat for everything in baseball right? I have been thinking about OPS, but adding total SBs to the Total Bases on top. I think it may be a more accurate for true offensive output since it accounts for speed. I wouldn't subtract CS because faster players have other advantages on the base path that could negate it. Like getting to 3rd base instead of 2nd on long single. Unrelated, but I'm curious to see if it's been done and where I could find it.

 

I think some of the early Bill James derivatives, like Runs Created, are close to what you are talking about. Here is the formula explained (and yes it is a pain to calculate. but) Baseball reference has is both as total (RC) and per game (RC/G). Here are the 2012 Twins' numbers at BR. There are other similar stats, but I like RC for some reason.

 

 

About Pavano (and the rest of the pitchers ) the ERA is actually there just for looks. I think that it is practically meaningless. BTW one of Nishioka's errors in Cleveland was called a hit today, so Duensing has added to his ERA. Makes really no sense to use for predicting performance or even describing how well he pitched.

 

I had made the post prior to skimming your article for the segment on PE and xPE and saw ERA is not included. I'm not a fan of BABIP since luck is really a strange thing to measure. I meant adding the stolen bases in the TB in Slug where you could later factor that into OPS. After re-reading it, I screwed up a little on the explanation.

It would look like (OBP+((TB+SB)/ABs)) which is easily calculable. Maybe I made something new there I don't know. Thanks for the insight on Runs Created which I'll look at as well.

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Twinsnorth. .........Hendricks has a higher ceiling.....wow that just shows how opinions vary, I would put Hendricks at the bottom, all the others have at least one MLB plus pitch or they are left handed , they have something....Hendricks has marginal stuff ,no swing & miss pitch..just don't see a high ceiling there...

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