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Twins Interested in Jose Bautista?


nicksaviking
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Per LaVelle... calm down on the Bautista rumors... 

 

 

 

Per Doogie - right now on 1500 ESPN... the Twins haven't had a meaningful discussion with Bautista's people, and probably won't. 

 

Based on the results of rumors so far this season. 

 

Looks like we are getting BAUTISTA!!!! 

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Some people believe in the whole certain veterans make teams play much better thing. It's a great baseball story. It's what's been taught from generation to generation and is usually reserved for players loved by fans who aren't actually doing much on the field any more (comparative to others at their positions). It's poetic really.  It's one of the many passed down beliefs that make people love the game.

 

Small quibbles.

 

At the end of the day, we are all human. Chemistry is a real thing in all human activities and relationships. History is full of leaders who bring good things out of mediocre people. This can't be measured, but we can usually spot it and we certainly feel it when we are in such an environment. (And we feel it even more when we are in an environment with the opposite.)

 

Also, and I'm sure you know this too, batter v. pitcher is romanticized and overblown. Certainly there are epic at bats that happen but it's typically batter v. the other team's entire defense. Much of what we think of as "pitching" is really defense. Sure, the best pitchers induce a lot of weak infield grounders, but that's little consolation if you have someone out there with the yips.  

 

Edited by Doomtints
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It's just proof that teams he play for win with him and struggle without him. Leadership is huge in sports obviously and Torii hunter is one of the best leaders in baseball. Obviously there's many other factors that go into it but find me a player that has improved teams liked this.

 

You left out this one:

 

2007 Twins (with Hunter) 79-83  2008 Twins (without Hunter) 88-75

 

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It's easy to talk yourself out of a deal when you put a name towards the draft pick.... That's part of the gamble. Will Bautista make more of an impact than the 2nd round pick? Absolutely. There's also the chance to flip him for a compatible prospect you could get in the 2nd round.... 

 

But what if it's not really a 2nd rounder? What if it's top a 15ish HS kid who's agreeing to be picked by the Twins because they can pay him more than the other teams in the middle of the 1st round?

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But what if it's not really a 2nd rounder? What if it's top a 15ish HS kid who's agreeing to be picked by the Twins because they can pay him more than the other teams in the middle of the 1st round?

Then I'd probably take that kid with the comp pick at the end of the 1st round.... 

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But you gave up your money from the second round pick, so you have less money to work with

How much money is the 2nd round pick worth? Would it be so bad to invest heavy in the top 2 picks and not save pool money for later round picks? I think the Twins have depth, but could use high end talent.

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How much money is the 2nd round pick worth? Would it be so bad to invest heavy in the top 2 picks and not save pool money for later round picks? I think the Twins have depth, but could use high end talent.

Frankly, giving up the first pick in round teo is foolish for a 59 win team, imo. Giving up flexibility is icing on the cake.

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But you gave up your money from the second round pick, so you have less money to work with

 

Right, without those three top 40 picks the Twins advantage is gone, they'll lose about $2M from their pool.

 

I can't find 2017 estimates, but in 2016 had the Reds (who had the largest pool) lost $2M they would have dropped all the way down to the 5th highest pool.

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Then I'd probably take that kid with the comp pick at the end of the 1st round.... 

 

You could potentially do that twice depending on the what you got that top pick for.  There's also lots of higher upside HS guys that basically say if they don't get first round money, they are going to college. 

 

The top pick doesn't usually sign for slot.  Lots of HS type talent could be grabbed through out the entire draft that way.  I'm not saying we shouldn't give up the pick if Bautista makes sense, but there is a big down side to it. 

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So we give up our high second round pick, a spot for Vargas or Rosario, and a bunch of money so we can do what exactly?

 

Win less than a handful of games more than we would have?  Continue a strong tradition of terrible defenses behind our terrible pitchers?  Hope that we can turn him into a prospect good enough to offset all the investments?

 

Where is the upside exactly?

Protection in the lineup for Dozier?

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Also, and I'm sure you know this too, batter v. pitcher is romanticized and overblown. Certainly there are epic at bats that happen but it's typically batter v. the other team's entire defense. Much of what we think of as "pitching" is really defense. Sure, the best pitchers induce a lot of weak infield grounders, but that's little consolation if you have someone out there with the yips.  

 

I think I kind of addressed this quibble later in the post when I wrote, 'Pitcher against batter, batter against pitcher, fielder on his own fielding a ball, etc.'  But I think the one on one battle of pitcher throwing the ball trying to get the batter out is very much a huge battle (which of course, the defense is involved in once the ball is put in play (or IF the ball is put in play).

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But what if it's not really a 2nd rounder? What if it's top a 15ish HS kid who's agreeing to be picked by the Twins because they can pay him more than the other teams in the middle of the 1st round?

Even if they forfeited one pick, they'd still have another pick at virtually the same spot, thanks to the competitive balance lottery. And they'd still have a larger draft pool than anyone else.

 

They could probably still do something interesting with it, but I suspect there are diminishing returns on your strategy with an additional second round pick. In the McCullers at 41 draft, the Astros third pick wasn't until 61.

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Even if they forfeited one pick, they'd still have another pick at virtually the same spot, thanks to the competitive balance lottery. And they'd still have a larger draft pool than anyone else.

 

They could probably still do something interesting with it, but I suspect there are diminishing returns on your strategy with an additional second round pick. In the McCullers at 41 draft, the Astros third pick wasn't until 61.

And they had more money to use....

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What's the likelihood he helps the Twins make the playoffs this year?

 

or that they trade him for a prospect better than they could draft?

75:1 odds if they get Bautista IMO

25%?

 

Anyways, spending 20 million or so on a guy with the sole idea of potentially trading him for a prospect or two at the deadline is kinda pointless. Much better uses of money IMO

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Anyways, spending 20 million or so on a guy with the sole idea of potentially trading him for a prospect or two at the deadline is kinda pointless.                                                         Much better uses of money IMO

 

 

I agree that this isn't (likely) going to happen.

 

But-

 

Who is left and willing (and available, to spend $$$ on) that represents good use of the $10-$20M?

 

*(Morneau, Manship, Worley, Swarzack, AJ, Nathan and Jepsen are all available and could all be brought back for under that price, combined.... J/K)

 

Who are the best cost/benefit, risk/reward, signees (ala Ian Desmond 2016 and the Rangers getting that #1 pick back) looking for 1-year or 2-year deals?

 

If the Twins are really in on Bautista, wouldn't Trumbo make more sense?

 

Jason Hammel has no QO issues and would be good Phil Hughes/Berrios insurance at the backend of the rotation and possibly good trade bait by June/July... (NL pitcher, I know, I know).

 

That's about it on the "bigger" FA names vis a vis the Twins' price range and fit (correct me if I've missed someone else)

 

Would Neftali Feliz sign a short-term deal if the Twins paid a slight premium?

 

They just missed out on Santiago Casilla- Oakland got him as a high-potential flip candidate- would have been a good get at a bargain price (2/$11M).

 

It seems like signing one or all of: Sergio Romo (eye-popping career K/BB of 5.6- among RPs- better than Kenley Jansen and just under Mariano Rivera), Boone Logan (LOOGY extraordinaire) and Fernando Salas (came up with Cards org and plenty of playoff team exp.) on such a deal would be relatively cheap and very utilitarian, and if any repeats his recent success in 2017, a wonderfully possible trading chip come July.

 

Feldman- (knows how to play the sign-and-flip game)

 

Hundley- (upgrade in the catching corps.... RH bat complements Castro's LH bat... very flippable when someone's catcher goes on the DL, good temporary landing place- with Garver waiting in the wings)

 

Chris Carter- will likely come inexpensively and on a one-year deal... besides, signing him will serve to help Twins fans see in real time what might have been with ABW...

 

Edited by jokin
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Meh, possibly. Prospects are voodoo at the best of times and there will never be a shortage of baseball people willing to sell potential for the chance to win now.

 If prospects are voodoo at best then why pay $18+ million for one from a limited number of teams at the deadline when you could pick your own at 35 and pay only slot value or slightly above that? 

 

Not all prospects are created equal, but if they're that hellish to deal with why pay Bautista all that money, assume the risk that he's going to produce and not continue to slide, and find a trade partner that is willing to give up a prospect perceived to be better than what was available for the competitive balance pick? That seems like a lot just to land another voodoo prospect.

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 If prospects are voodoo at best then why pay $18+ million for one from a limited number of teams at the deadline when you could pick your own at 35 and pay only slot value or slightly above that? 

 

Not all prospects are created equal, but if they're that hellish to deal with why pay Bautista all that money, assume the risk that he's going to produce and not continue to slide, and find a trade partner that is willing to give up a prospect perceived to be better than what was available for the competitive balance pick? That seems like a lot just to land another voodoo prospect.

This is not necessarily an endorsement of signing Bautista, particularly at his current asking price, but a prospect acquired in July trade would probably be less "voodoo" than one drafted in June -- he would already have pro experience, closer to the majors, etc.  There's also the chance that they could acquire multiple pieces for Bautista in July, as opposed to one pick in the draft.  Even if they're not top prospects, I could see an effective Bautista fetching some interesting packages in July.

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