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After an 0-9 start, the Twins are 6-5


diehardtwinsfan
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So here's the question.  Is 6-5 regression to the mean, or what this team is capable of with some real regression yet to come?  Obviously, I think the start pretty much killed the post season, unless the offense goes nuts...

 

That said, SP has been pretty good.  The pen is pretty much what we expected.  The offense has been way below expectations. 

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So here's the question. Is 6-5 regression to the mean, or what this team is capable of with some real regression yet to come? Obviously, I think the start pretty much killed the post season, unless the offense goes nuts...

 

That said, SP has been pretty good. The pen is pretty much what we expected. The offense has been way below expectations.

The offense was brutal to start, but overall I'm not sure they have been below expectations.

I think our rank in OBP and ops are pretty much right where they were at the end of last season.

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The offense was brutal to start, but overall I'm not sure they have been below expectations.

I think our rank in OBP and ops are pretty much right where they were at the end of last season.

The offense was brutal with RISP and men on base, not necessarily brutal overall.

 

The Twins, given their current stats, should be between around 8-12 or 9-11.

 

The problem hasn't been as much "performance" as it has been "timing".

 

And I don't think the Twins are a good enough team to start out the season at a 3-4 game disadvantage and make it up in the following 140-ish games. I think they're a mediocre team, slotted to win 81-83 and maybe with a dose of luck, sneak into the postseason... Well, they got a big dose of anti-luck and I don't believe they're good enough to overcome that hurdle.

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The offense was brutal to start, but overall I'm not sure they have been below expectations.
I think our rank in OBP and ops are pretty much right where they were at the end of last season.

 

I think I was more in the 80-85 wins category again.  Their start has certainly put that in jeopardy, but a nice week or two of "regression to the mean" could put them back on track too.  They were a tad lucky last year, that I think we agree.  They came on strong again near the end, with some young guys really stepping it up, which I assumed their improvement would help get us to a similar place in a non-lucky scenario. 

 

I still think that Murphy, Sano, and Dozier will turn things around a bit.  Park should improve as well.  The offense has a nice core forming, especially with Mauer and Arcia being pleasant surprises to go with some nice production from Escobar and Nunez.

 

What I think will be interesting is what they do at the deadline assuming they are still well out of it.  They have some nice pitching in AAA, which might take them a step back this year as well as Plouffe, who I have to think is moved either in July or January.  This team should have some assets to shed, and it might even get better by shedding them.

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So here's the question.  Is 6-5 regression to the mean, or what this team is capable of with some real regression yet to come?  Obviously, I think the start pretty much killed the post season, unless the offense goes nuts...

 

That said, SP has been pretty good.  The pen is pretty much what we expected.  The offense has been way below expectations. 

I thought we'd finish around 85 wins but I did think we'd be better in the second half than the first.  But they probably are 3 or 4 games behind where they should be and they should be sub .500 so they have a big hill to climb.  I think longterm optimism is still called for but I'm not as confident they can make it to 85 wins.  But I think they're certainly more like the 6-5 team than the 0-9 one.  

 

I think a few years ago Cleveland started out just horrible but finished really strong so they were a really good 80 win team.  That might be us this year.  

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I'm pretty sure I'm cutting cable this Spring/Summer. I need to ensure I can get local channels with an antenna first, but the Twins were (one of) the reason(s) I got it in the first place. By the time they are watchable again I hope to be able to stream games. 

 

*I have 4 young kids so before anyone challenges my fandom be warned. 

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I think I was more in the 80-85 wins category again.  Their start has certainly put that in jeopardy, but a nice week or two of "regression to the mean" could put them back on track too.  They were a tad lucky last year, that I think we agree.  They came on strong again near the end, with some young guys really stepping it up, which I assumed their improvement would help get us to a similar place in a non-lucky scenario. 

 

I still think that Murphy, Sano, and Dozier will turn things around a bit.  Park should improve as well.  The offense has a nice core forming, especially with Mauer and Arcia being pleasant surprises to go with some nice production from Escobar and Nunez.

 

What I think will be interesting is what they do at the deadline assuming they are still well out of it.  They have some nice pitching in AAA, which might take them a step back this year as well as Plouffe, who I have to think is moved either in July or January.  This team should have some assets to shed, and it might even get better by shedding them.

I can't wait for the trade Mauer threads if he continues this production.  

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I'm pretty sure I'm cutting cable this Spring/Summer. I need to ensure I can get local channels with an antenna first, but the Twins were (one of) the reason(s) I got it in the first place. By the time they are watchable again I hope to be able to stream games. 

 

*I have 4 young kids so before anyone challenges my fandom be warned. 

FYI, you can already stream games -- Sling ($20/month) and Vue ($35/month) both carry Fox Sports North now:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22039-sling-adds-fox-sports-north/

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I think they are around a .500 team, that started 9 games in the hole......so, probably they are regressing to their true talent.

I agree.  So I thought they would be .500 (81-81).  They started 0-9.  So my new expectation is for them to be .500ish the rest of the way.  So my adjusted estimate is 76.5-85.5.  They have half wins, right?

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Preseason, Fangraphs had the Twins projected at 77.8 wins.  Today they have them projected to finish with 74.3.  Playoffs odds dropping from 14.6% to 4.2%:

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

I think that is basically just using our preseason projection over the remaining games, with some adjustments to our depth chart, perhaps.  They also have a "Season to Date Stats Mode" that drops us further to 72.3 projected wins.

 

Just found 538's projections, they had the Twins at 78 wins and 23% playoffs preseason, and now we are down to 71 wins and 7% playoffs:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

Edited by spycake
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What! Consider this my notice direct tv.

And you can already experiment with in-market Twins streaming by using your DIRECTV credentials to log into the Fox Sports Go site/apps:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21810-fox-sports-go-wtf/

 

Obviously a different interface going through FSGO rather than Sling/Vue, but it's an option to try Twins streaming before you sign up for Sling or Vue (both of whom offer 1 week free trials, by the way).

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This team is:

 

1-10 Road

5-4 Home

 

I think that those are more meaningful splits than the 0-9 and 6-5

 

Last season's team had a better home record as well (46-35 vs 37-44)

 

The key would be to sweep a few home series (hopefully against AL Central) and quit going belly up on the road (esp. against AL Central.)   

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The start was unfortunate and even possibily misleading however...

 

I'm going to stay with the assessment that I made in the off season. 

 

The Twins are in trouble because the rest of the American League improved. 

 

The combination of:

 

A. Every team in the American League being talented and competitive

 

B. The Twins counting on youth on lead the way. 

 

This means the Twins will need to learn how to win the close games real quick.

 

And that is hard to do when: 

 

A. Your Bullpen has question marks

 

All in All... I think the Twins have certainly shot themselves in the foot to start the season and when they stop shooting themselves in the foot they are going to find that the other teams are not shooting themselves in the foot either. 

 

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The start was unfortunate and even possibily misleading however...

 

I'm going to stay with the assessment that I made in the off season. 

 

The Twins are in trouble because the rest of the American League improved. 

 

The combination of:

 

A. Every team in the American League being talented and competitive

 

B. The Twins counting on youth on lead the way. 

 

This means the Twins will need to learn how to win the close games real quick.

 

And that is hard to do when: 

 

A. Your Bullpen has question marks

 

All in All... I think the Twins have certainly shot themselves in the foot to start the season and when they stop shooting themselves in the foot they are going to find that the other teams are not shooting themselves in the foot either. 

That's certainly quite possible.  I do think we'll be better post-all star game than before it (and, fortunately, that's when we play most of the AL central) but things will change for all teams as the year goes forward.  I don't think the White Sox are the best team in baseball and I think most teams will (again) be within a handful of games from .500 so a sudden hot streak or losing streak (like ours) will affect a lot of teams.

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I agree.  So I thought they would be .500 (81-81).  They started 0-9.  So my new expectation is for them to be .500ish the rest of the way.  So my adjusted estimate is 76.5-85.5.  They have half wins, right?

 

Pythag says Twins should be 8-12 and fangraph's baseruns says they should be 9-11. However, the Twins are 20th in xFIP and 22nd in wOBA, so I have a hard time seeing them be above .500 the rest of the season. Fangraph's projections agree- 68-74 the rest of the season to finish with a 74-88 record. Based on expectations, I just don't know how that can't be viewed as anything other than a disappointment.  

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Pythag says Twins should be 8-12 and fangraph's baseruns says they should be 9-11. However, the Twins are 20th in xFIP and 22nd in wOBA, so I have a hard time seeing them be above .500 the rest of the season. Fangraph's projections agree- 68-74 the rest of the season to finish with a 74-88 record. Based on expectations, I just don't know how that can't be viewed as anything other than a disappointment.  

Well, if they stay at 20th and 22nd in those stats, sure.  But perhaps they get better.  I doubt those numbers will stay static.  

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Need bullpen help! to many blown leads. Why not Milone to pen? Seems he can mow em down early but not twice. Seems like a pen option to me!

Cleveland's first time through the order yesterday vs Milone: 4 hits in 9 AB

 

I doubt Milone has any kind of early magic that would play up in the pen, although he may prove to be an adequate relief option for other reasons.

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Well, if they stay at 20th and 22nd in those stats, sure.  But perhaps they get better.  I doubt those numbers will stay static.  

 

I just don't see a ton of upside with the pitching staff going forward- I expect Gibson to rebound and Berrios in for Milone to be a significant improvement (although Berrios may struggle with the transition, initially), but Hughes is right at about were I expect him and Santana and Nolasco have overperformed at this point. The bullpen is a dumpsterfire- Twins just need to bite the bullet and call up Chargois and Burdi. 

 

As far as the offense, it's so hard to score runs with the production we're getting out of the catcher and CF spots. I don't think Suzuki has anything left with the bat at this point in his career and I don't think exchanging Santana for Buxton (although desperately needed for Buxton's development) will be an upgrade offensively.

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Preseason, Fangraphs had the Twins projected at 77.8 wins.  Today they have them projected to finish with 74.3.  Playoffs odds dropping from 14.6% to 4.2%:

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

 

I think that is basically just using our preseason projection over the remaining games, with some adjustments to our depth chart, perhaps.  They also have a "Season to Date Stats Mode" that drops us further to 72.3 projected wins.

 

Just found 538's projections, they had the Twins at 78 wins and 23% playoffs preseason, and now we are down to 71 wins and 7% playoffs:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/

I predicted 78 wins before the season started.

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The offense was brutal with RISP and men on base, not necessarily brutal overall.

 

The Twins, given their current stats, should be between around 8-12 or 9-11.

 

The problem hasn't been as much "performance" as it has been "timing".

 

And I don't think the Twins are a good enough team to start out the season at a 3-4 game disadvantage and make it up in the following 140-ish games. I think they're a mediocre team, slotted to win 81-83 and maybe with a dose of luck, sneak into the postseason... Well, they got a big dose of anti-luck and I don't believe they're good enough to overcome that hurdle.

Historic trends were against the Twins once they went 0-9. I'm also of the opinion that it's time to bring up all the youngsters they can, trade to restock the farm system and let the youngsters play. Using stop-gap players in a season that is pretty much lost does nothing to help the youngsters learn at the mlb level.

 

Another thing, I'm just not sure about Molitor. I think Molitor may have excellent baseball knowledge but has absolutely no feel for his players.

Edited by Blake
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Historic trends were against the Twins once they went 0-9. I'm also of the opinion that it's time to bring up all the youngsters they can, trade to restock the farm system and let the youngsters play. Using stop-gap players in a season that is pretty much lost does nothing to help the youngsters learn at the mlb level.

 

Another thing, I'm just not sure about Molitor. I think Molitor may have excellent baseball knowledge but has absolutely no feel for his players.

 

Baring some sort of hot streak,  if they are pretty far back at the deadline, I do hope TR is selling.  He should have some decent items that someone wants to buy.  I would think the following (assuming health and decent performance) could move easily:

 

Plouffe

Nolasco (keep up the Ks and decent pitching)

Fein (though for a warm body most likely)

Milone

 

 

 

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Baring some sort of hot streak,  if they are pretty far back at the deadline, I do hope TR is selling.  He should have some decent items that someone wants to buy.  I would think the following (assuming health and decent performance) could move easily:

 

Plouffe

Nolasco (keep up the Ks and decent pitching)

Fein (though for a warm body most likely)

Milone

I'd add Kyle Gibson to that list.
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So here's the question.  Is 6-5 regression to the mean, or what this team is capable of with some real regression yet to come? 

Alternatively, after their hot 4-0 streak, they were 2-5 as of when you wrote, and are currently 3-6.

 

What I'm getting at, of course, is cherry picking. That plus SSS means it's sort of easy to construct all kinds of scenarios out of essentially the same early data.

 

Weak offense, shaky bullpen, and jury-still-out starting pitching, means that .500 the rest of the way is an iffy proposition.

 

Erm, what was the question again? :)

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This just in from the 'misery loves company' department:

 

The Twins have the same record as the Astros.  The main difference I could see, is that the Astros have had three separate three game losing streaks sprinkled throughout the rest of their 6-5 record.    

 

Despite correctly predicting the Twins suckitude, many national prognosticators have regressed to the mean due to the Astro's start.

 

Things like talent aside (although I would argue the Stros and Twins make pretty decent doppelgängers)---do the fancy numbers say the Astros' postseason chances are as bleak as the Twins?  This is an actual question.    

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