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Article: Draft Series: Part 3 - What's New


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Jeremy, when you aren't answering my assinine questions on Twins Hangout (Hangout and Talk Twins) (or maybe you should reclassify as "Minnesota baseball hangout, Hangout and talk Minnesota Professional baseball"), you're hitting the draft in a way that I can't quite understnd. You get the info I want. I think I love you.

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I have to think the Hoffman news hurts the Cubs the most. Now there is clearly just a top 3 and thereafter little differentiation among the next half dozen or so picks. As much as most Twins fans want an ace the Cubs have an even greater need in that area, especially considering their abundance of top hitting prospects ready to join the big league team over the next year. I could easily see them reaching a bit for a SP (Nola, Beede, Freeland) and banking $ to take ringers on high risk/reward HS arms later. Drafting Gordon or Jackson almost seems like a loss considering the amount of talk in that org about adding pitching depth to their system.

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Hoffman should and probably will still go in the first 20 picks, but using #5 on him would be too big of a gamble. His upside is still as a top-of-the-rotation guy, but the likelihood he reaches that ceiling drops enough that it makes much more sense to invest that pick (and money) into someone else.

 

A team who saves money early could get a steal in Fedde.

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Yeah, it's not as if the Twins have a choice between Hoffman and significantly lesser player. TJ is usually successful but there are numerous examples of MLB players that just didn't come back as good as they were. He also wasn't a can't miss before he got injured.

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"Guys like Aaron Nola, Tyler Beede, Kyle Freeland, and Erick Fedde may become more serious options."

 

With Fedde out that leaves Beede and two control pitchers. I know the Twins have scouted Nola extensively, but they need to stop. Not taking a 4-5 pitcher at #5 shouldn't need to be explained.

 

If the Twins are left without an obvious choice at #5 and go pitcher, I'd prefer HS arms Holmes and Toussaint. I don't think they have been scouted as much as Nola has though. They've also been checking out Sean Newcomb and Sean Reid-Foley. If the team thinks they know how to correct Newcomb's high BB rate, he'd be great, but I'm not sure the Twins have a potion for that.

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After reading the Hoffman news, I was starting to hope for a Freeland/Hoffman first two picks for the Twins.

 

what are the chances Hoffman or Trea Turner fall to the Twins in the second?

 

There are 10-15 teams that have a 2nd pick before the Twins and are in a much better position to make that happen.

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