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Live BP vs. Spring Training Games


jharaldson

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There has been a lot made lately of the fact that Byron Buxton has not played an inning in the field or taken a single in-game AB.  If you listen to our players or beat writers you would think that the games are almost unneeded in Spring Training.  Carlos Correa got a late start to Spring games on March 1 and commented that they were not super important.  Do-Hyoung Park posts random short videos of Buxton hitting home runs off of Twins returning from injury like Winder and quotes from Falvey saying Buxton is ready for Opening Day.  Based on this we are supposed to be reassured that everything is OK and normal.

I am not a medical professional or a baseball coach so I can’t prove any of this wrong but what I can do is see if this type of approach is being taken with any other top players.  I went to Fangraphs and sorted all players with 350 PA or more by OPS.  I then checked how many 2023 Spring Training games they had.  Are a lot of the top players following the Twins and Buxton and effectively sitting out Spring Training games in favor of live batting practice?  The results are fairly conclusive:

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All the major stars are playing spring training games unless they are currently injured or retired.  Not one other major player in the top 30 is following the lead of the Twins.  The only conclusion I can draw is that Buxton is still injured and we are going through mental gymnastics with the Twins trying to justify that he is not. 

Occam’s Razor states that the simplest explanation is often the correct one.  I would put out there that healthy players play games and injured players don’t.

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The biggest thing in spring training is to develop reads. The guys who will be on the mound pitching, where the balls hit are hit, how you all in the field learn to lineup for throws and cutoffs. Plus, it is a time to also work out lineup kinks. I always felt some batetrs work well if they consistently know who is hitting before and after them in the order.

You worry about pitchers working on certain pitches in a game that might result in an injury. 

But, yes, am amazed at the amount of "non-Twins" that are getting innings as well as time in the line-up, compared to the 25 coming north.

Sure, there are enough guys in camp that you can have short mini-games, especially between major and minor league guys, to get the swings in, work out the muscle kinks and such, in a playful and non-competitive way. 

The pitchers have to work up to 75-80 or even 100 pitches by April 1. The batters need to get back into the swing of things. You can have all sorts of fielding drills. The players do work in spring training, at least four hours, if not 6 to even 8 (counting strength/conditioning time) at the minimum.

I'm all for players on the main roster only playing half a game, if need be.

But at some point the starting nine have to work together.

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I think we can agree Buxton is a gamer in that he'd never ask out the lineup because of a twinge or minor ache.  He wants to play every day.

The thing is, he is a Ferrari not a Ford truck (to mix in more metaphors).  If your old Ford is misfiring on one cylinder you pop the hood change a spark plug and try again.  If it is still misfiring you drive it to your trusted mechanic.

You (or at least I) shouldn't just poke around under the hood of your Ferrari.  And you REALLY ought not drive it if misfiring as they are a finely tuned piece of machinery.

Buxton is much closer to that (mechanically) fussy Ferrari, but he still sees himself as a rugged old Ford.  MAYBE he has learned that his style of play necessitates him taking a few games off when there is a slight bit of misfiring...

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The WBC plays into this conversation, but there's still 2.5 weeks of spring training.  5-10 games can be piled up in that time without an issue.  I'm not concerned about it yet.  If this is still a conversation come April 1st, that's a different story.  Until then, I'm not going to be overly concerned about it.

 

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37 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

The WBC plays into this conversation, but there's still 2.5 weeks of spring training.  5-10 games can be piled up in that time without an issue.  I'm not concerned about it yet.  If this is still a conversation come April 1st, that's a different story.  Until then, I'm not going to be overly concerned about it.

 

I also came to point out the WBC factor. Trout, Goldy, Altuve, Freeman, Machado, Arenado, Devers, Ohtani, Pederson, Betts, Alonso, Soto, Rodriguez, Gimenez, McNeil, Bogaerts, and Schwarber were all getting ready for the WBC and ahead of schedule . That's 17 guys from the list. Plus 3 guys injured or retired. Lowe is not some established star. Neither is Contreras, and he's with a new team this year so, as a catcher, probably needs more game work to work with his staff. Harris is a 2nd year player. The rest of the guys have played 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 4 games. Being extremely generous we'll call it 3 PAs per game for them all (their first games likely only got 2, but we'll call it 3). And you're talking a max of 27 PAs. At least half of which probably came against minor leaguers. That's what we're concerned about? Buxton gets that in an hour on the back fields.

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26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I also came to point out the WBC factor. Trout, Goldy, Altuve, Freeman, Machado, Arenado, Devers, Ohtani, Pederson, Betts, Alonso, Soto, Rodriguez, Gimenez, McNeil, Bogaerts, and Schwarber were all getting ready for the WBC and ahead of schedule . That's 17 guys from the list. Plus 3 guys injured or retired. Lowe is not some established star. Neither is Contreras, and he's with a new team this year so, as a catcher, probably needs more game work to work with his staff. Harris is a 2nd year player. The rest of the guys have played 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 4 games. Being extremely generous we'll call it 3 PAs per game for them all (their first games likely only got 2, but we'll call it 3). And you're talking a max of 27 PAs. At least half of which probably came against minor leaguers. That's what we're concerned about? Buxton gets that in an hour on the back fields.

In fairness, it should also be pointed out that those guys getting ready for the WBC are getting game reps at the WBC too.  That shouldn't be ignored either.  But that's why we're saying that this should be part of the conversation.

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Some incredible stuff happening in this blog entry! I'm so old I remember when Kepler struggled to get a hit during spring training 2021 and the people who were concerned about Kepler were dragged over the coals. 🙂

I think people aren't realizing that every team has players who take live batting practice on the back fields. An 84 mph fastball from Aaron Sanchez on a back field is not a game simulation. What I would like to know is if Buxton is with his teammates in the dugout during the games. If Buxton is not in the lineup again tomorrow then I would want someone who is down in Ft Myers to at least tell me that much. 

The only other example of a healthy player skipping spring training, that I could find, was Ryan Zimmerman in 2018, who got off to his typical slow start in April and then got hurt in May.  

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If you’re looking for the simplest explanation, it’s clear that buxton doesn’t need to be playing in spring training games and is doing all the necessary work off to the side. There’s so reason to think that the Twins are trying to hide or cover up anything 

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Thanks to all those that commented!  This is effectively an unknowable argument until March 30.  If Buxton is playing CF high up in the lineup then the plan that Twins have been carrying out has worked.  We will likely see other top players just skip spring training games all together and go to backfields and live BP.

If Buxton is at DH, on the bench, or on the IL, then we know that the lack of time in actual games was the result of limitations.  There is no reason not to have a gold glove outfielder and top 30 OPS leader on the field when trying to set the tone of the year.  

One item I will note, if Buxton is limited at the beginning of the year, it will reduce confidence in the new training staff to blow such a visible first test.  I would rather be told for 2 months that he is limited and being held back with him being a surprise for opening day as opposed to be told for 2 months that things are on track and great only to have him unable to play CF or to not be able to go at all on opening day.  

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I am sure a player prefers to do well in the spring than not, even if the games and stats mean "nothing". Funny how a players poor performance can blamed on not having a complete spring training, but when they are there they don't participate any more than they could on their own at other facilities if they have discipline. 

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On 3/17/2023 at 11:29 PM, Adam Neisen said:

If you’re looking for the simplest explanation, it’s clear that buxton doesn’t need to be playing in spring training games and is doing all the necessary work off to the side. There’s so reason to think that the Twins are trying to hide or cover up anything 

They may not be hiding or covering up anything. But they also aren't telling you he won't be playing CF this year. Solely DH. So how many games will he play in that scenario. I posted yesterday that he would be DH today, and that's where he'll be all year

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