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How many games will the Minnesota Twins win in 2023?




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After consecutive seasons of anticipation and ultimate disappointment, Twins fans find themselves in a position of uncertainty. What direction does S.S. Falvine appear to be heading? What changes await in this direction? Will the vessel come upon a World Series title in its journey? Or will it forever circulate the triangle of mediocrity?

These questions haunted Twins fans throughout the land in the early winter. Uncertainty surrounding the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa raised late autumn trepidation in Twins territory. Exhibited inactivity from Captain Falvey and Captain Levine in the season of advent sparked further discontent and disarray. This pattern of sightings was not unfamiliar to Twins fans, who had witnessed their fair share of underwhelming "impact pitchers," including JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Matt Shoemaker. Fans slowly rose in arms, and the addition of outfielder Joey Gallo hardly appeased the crowd.

In mid-December, all hope appeared lost, as Minnesota's prized shortstop had signed a gargantuan contract with the San Francisco Giants. However, through a remarkable series of unlikely events, Minnesota reclaimed their shortstop, signing him to a long-term contract. Not long after, they acquired starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins to significantly improve their starting rotation. Unfortunately, Lopez wasn't without cost. The Twins were forced to part with Reigning American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez.

Minnesota will not only place their faith on the addition of Pablo Lopez, but also on improved health, to improve their starting rotation in 2023. While the addition of Lopez is significant, the Twins will also receive the services of Kenta Maeda in 2023, who had missed eighteen months due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Tyler Mahle, who missed the final month of the 2022 season with shoulder injury. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda appears promising.

While the starting rotation appears improved, question marks fly high around the starting lineup, which will be without the reigning American League batting champion. They will look to sluggers Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to maintain good health and also to prospects such as Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and others who will see the field again after missing time due to injury.

The season ahead is a pivotal one for both Falvine and manager Rocco Baldelli. The ship has drifted more and more into the incorrect direction over the past two years. If it continues to drift in that direction, Twins fans must seriously question the competence of those managing their team. Can officers Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli pilot the ship out of the triangle of mediocrity? Or is it their fate to never leave?

We will know the answer in November 2023.

cHawk's ("Optimistic Homer") Predictions for 2023:

vs. White Sox: 7-6
vs. Guardians: 7-6
vs. Tigers: 8-5
vs. Royals: 8-5
vs. Orioles: 5-1
vs. Red Sox: 3-4
vs. Rays: 4-2
vs. Blue Jays: 2-4
vs. Yankees: 1-6
vs. Astros: 1-5
vs. Angels: 4-2
vs. Athletics: 5-1
vs. Mariners: 3-4
vs. Rangers: 5-2
vs. Braves: 2-1
vs. Marlins: 2-1
vs. Mets: 1-2
vs. Phillies: 2-1
vs. Nationals: 3-0
vs. Reds: 3-0
vs. Cubs: 2-1
vs. Brewers: 2-2
vs. Pirates: 2-1
vs. Cardinals: 1-2
vs. Diamondbacks: 2-1
vs. Rockies: 3-0
vs. Dodgers: 0-3
vs. Padres: 1-2
vs. Giants: 2-1

Total: 91-71, 1st place in the American League Central Division



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I'll say the RANGE for possible win totals has never been so wide for me (anywhere between 72 and 90 wins would honestly no surprise me)

Big potential variations that I'll be watching closely

1. Buck's health and games started in CF (duh)

2. Mahle's health and ability to play at his top level throughout the season

2a. AK's wrist over long season

3. Lewis's performance upon return

4. Ober (I think he could flash #2 SP ability this year..... ducking to avoid flying rotten fruit) 

5. Will the real Lopez please stand up in the bullpen?

6. Miranda' s defense at 3rd base (I think he'll definitely hit but his value is so much higher as a competent 3rd baseman that 1st where he seems destined to end up)

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83.  Haven't added offensive punch; relying on health.  What could go wrong?  Added pitching depth but not an ace.  What could go wrong?  Bullpen should (could) be stronger--IF healthy.  What could go wrong?

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The Twins won 78 last year with a weaker pitching staff & a lot of games lost to injury. With that said I'm not sold on the offense. It's nice to see Kepler having a good Spring, but it appears him & Gallo will get a lot of PA's & that means we're looking for a major bounce back season from both corner OF positions, A good team needs offensive production from the corner OF positions. Hoping that is offset by continued development of players like Miranda, Gordon & others. Like any other season to be successful we'll need key players to play a lot. 

85 feels like a reasonable number for this team as it stands now. Hopefully, things (health, performance, key additions/subtractions etc.) go well & then maybe we exceed 90 & win the division. That would be great. 

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I think after trading for Gray, Mahle and Lopez and signing Correa anything less than a division championship or a Wild Card would be considered a failure in my mind. If that happens I want the FO and manager sent packing. If they make the playoffs but don't win a game the FO gets one more year but the manager doesn't.

My prediction is high 80's.

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They will win 95. The young guys are developing and winning will become contagious. Health over the long haul will have a positive impact because of the depth in st paul. 

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This team will struggle to score runs without Arraez. I seriously think they will miss him more than anyone has anticipated. 

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They will win 80 games unless Rocco improves as manager. Last year he had almost no clue on how to handle pitching staff and he did not have hitters move runners over so Twins hit into a high number of double plays.  The pitching staff appears to be better this year, but scoring runs could be a problem.

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It's all going to come down to health. If guys are once again too banged up to play, this will be a 75-78 win team. If guys can stay healthy, for the most part, they are an 80-85 win team. If they are able to demonstrate consistent health, or at least stability within the positions (while not being forced to use players like Contreras or Tyler White on a regular basis) they will be an 85-90+ win team. I truly believe that, if this team is able to stay healthy, they win the AL Central and win a playoff game or two.

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I'm thinking in the 80-85 win range.  I agree with a contribute that said as low as 72.  I don't think that will happen but it could.  I'm more concerned now about the offense.  We traded two of our better offensive players since last year and am wondering how to replace their offense.  One of them of course the batting championship.  They signed Correa to all that money which may work out.  He's a very good hitter but who protects him in the lineup?  Buxton?  Hardly.  I mean why pitch to Correa if you don't have a very good hitter batting after him.  I'm worried that our offense will struggle like it did much of last year.  Starting pitching looks better on paper but questions abound regarding their past injury status.  Gallo?  The career .199 hitter going to save the team this year?  I hope so but it's doubtful.  This team could go either way.  I'm hoping they take the division.  The last two seasons have been a disaster.

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Wild guess….92-70…..can’t see injuries being a big issue again with the current depth. Relief corp is biggest concern. Just hope that either couple guys improve dramatically, or we don’t waste a bunch of chances on Pagan & López. 

Nobody has gold glove OF & former starting SS as depth, platoon players……it’s common here to read about how poor the FO is doing……not sure they shouldn’t be getting pretty high praise for the 26 man we’re starting with in ‘23! Good fortune with the Farmer acquisition & the CC falling into our lap, yep……as they say, you make your own good fortune.

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1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

We traded two of our better offensive players since last year and am wondering how to replace their offense.

I know the Twins traded Arraez but who is the second player you’re referring to?

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Going to agree there is a wide variance of possible outcomes. It's always about health and performance. But that's true for EVERY team to some degree!

I believe prognostication has them around 82 wins, then looking at over and under speculation.

1] Best and deepest rotation since I can remember.

2] I like the top 6 in the pen a lot. Even with Pagan still around and questions about the 8th spot, those last 2 spots are usually in flux for most all teams. There are depth options available, and if and when push comes to shove, even SP depth can be used. I think the pen is going to be pretty good.

3] Like the defense and depth and versatility of the position players.

4] Lewis and Julien are going to help, and make a difference. Julien possibly as early as May. Lewis by July. 

5] A healthy Larnach and Kirilloff, even if AK needs a month or so to get fully comfortable and in a groove, can make a huge difference this year and seasons to come.

6] Fully admit relying on a pair of rebounds by Gallo and Kepler are big "IF's". Combined with Larnach and Kirilloff there are questions about the offense. But Gallo doesn't have to have a career season, just be his "Texas" self. Kepler just has to look more like his previous self, not his career 2019. And again, Larnach and AK just have to be healthy. The talent is there to be sure. So those "IF's" are not crazy to expect.

7] The new schedule doesn't bother me. It's not as if the Twins suddenly play the Dogers and Mets for 20 games. 

8] It would be impossible to have as many injuries and miss as many games as the Twins did in 2022.

I believe the win floor is 85. 

With rotation and bullpen depth, better defense, better depth, viable contributions from Gallo, Kepler, Polanco, Miranda, and Buxton, with continued development from Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis, and Julien...92 wins is very possible.

An awful lot would have to break right for more than that. 

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On 3/21/2023 at 12:27 PM, cHawk said:

I know the Twins traded Arraez but who is the second player you’re referring to?

Perhaps the reference is to Gio Urshela.

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