Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

My 2022 Offseason Blueprint, Round 2: Manaea, Iglesias


cjm0926

2,751 views

 Share

Twins Video

Some of you may have read my article I wrote about 3 weeks ago with my plans for the 2022 offseason. If you want to check it out, the link is here I had us signing Stroman, Story, trading for Luis Severino (Which I still think would be a great idea), and trading for Zac Gallen. Obviously that wasn't going to happen and surely won't happen now. I decided to come up with a bit more of a realistic offseason we could possibly have. With free agents now signing it affects who we can go after. As a matter of fact, Alex Cobb to the Giants came out as a was writing this article. The Twins future seems much more bright with the Buxton extension. It was looking like we would go into a full rebuild not more than 3 days ago. Without further ado, the blueprint.

Edit: Kirilloff salary should be $0.6 Million, bringing team total to $125.45 Million

1066733943_blueprint2.JPG.88a27324b3fe61a01d9cf7fca4ef2669.JPG

There are a few new names in this blueprint, but there is a solid chunk of guys that will be returning. I made a few trades, and signed a few free agents. The free agents include one of the top starting pitchers, Marcus Stroman. I sign Marcus to a 4 year, $80 million contract. For the other free agents I sign a starting pitcher, 2 bullpen arms, and a shortstop. The other starting pitcher is one we are familiar with in Twins territory, Michael Pineda. He will eat quality innings for the team. He is not a top of the rotation starter, and has some injury issues, but it seems like you can always rely on Big Mike to keep you in the ballgame. It is not an exciting move, but one that could pay off. I sign him to a 2 year, $16 million deal. Next, I sign 2 bullpen arms. They are both low risk, moderate to high reward. The first one is Brad Hand, he is signed to a 1 year, $2.5 million deal. I then sign Corey Knebel to a 1 year, $5 million deal. They are 2 guys that are veterans and have had success, so it is pretty self explanatory. Lastly, at shortstop, I sign Jose Iglesias to a 1 year, $3 million deal. He is merely a stopgap for Royce Lewis, or whoever will take the reigns at shortstop in the near future. Now onto the trades.

For the trades I make a trade with the Yankees, and the Athletics. The Athletics have publicly said they are looking to reduce payroll drastically this offseason. They have 3 good starting pitchers many teams will be interested in. I choose Sean Manaea. He costs the least in terms of trade value, since he is a free agent next offseason and is the most expensive of the 3. During Manaea's career, he has posted a 107 ERA+, making him a decently above league average pitcher during that time. For the trade, I would make it a bit more interesting , taking more salary off of Oaklands hands. I am including Stephen Piscotty in the trade. He is under contract through this year as well with a club option next year. He is set to make $7.25 million this year, which could help with the trade package for Manaea. For Piscotty and Manaea, I am sending Oakland Emmanuel Rodriguez, an 18 year old outfielder, and Drew Strotman. You may be thinking screw Piscotty, we only want Manaea, but I have a reason of getting him due to another trade I will make. If Manaea plays well during the season, we would extend him for 2-3 more years, to gain certainty in the rotation. For my second and last trade, I trade with the dark side. I give up Max Kepler and Mitch Garver for top SS prospect, Oswald Peraza. The Yankees are looking for catching help and don't have a centerfielder. Mitch Garver provides a big upgrade to Gary Sanchez for the Yankees. The reason I am trading Garver is because he is getting to that age where he will likely not catch for much longer. 1B/DH and catchers values differ immensely. I also trade Kepler to man CF in the Bronx. As much as I hate to say it, I think Kepler could blossom playing for Yankees, with the short porch in right. In return, we get Oswald Peraza. The Yankees currently have 2 good shortstop prospects, Peraza and Anthony Volpe. The Yankees and all of baseball value Volpe way more, and rightfully so. I think Volpe is virtually untouchable, so I go after Peraza. Peraza is 10 months older than Volpe, but has posted good results in AAA, although it was a small sample size. Volpe hasn't been above A-ball yet.

The rest of the lineup is pretty straightforward. In the infield we have Jeffers at catcher, Kirilloff at 1B, Polanco at 2B, Iglesias at SS which I have explained above, and Donaldson at 3B. 3B could be shared by 3 different guys, the other two being Arraez and Miranda. There is a high chance that either Donaldson or Arraez spend time on the IL so that could be a chance for Miranda to claim his spot on the Twins for the long term. In the outfield I have Larnach in left. It may still be a bit premature but I think Larnach will figure something out and become a beast with his bat. I centerfield we have Byron Buxton. It is so nice to say that knowing we will also have him for the next 7 years, even if he is injury prone. In right we have the man we got from Oakland, Stephen Piscotty. That is not an exciting addition but if he can be at least average, I would be ok, especially since it is only 1 year. On the bench we have Celestino as the 4th OF. At the moment Jake Cave is slotted in as the 4th OF, which many fans don't like to see and I am sure they would agree with me putting Celestino there. For Utility we have Arraez, who as I mentioned could also be the 3B, and Nick Gordon. Gordon provides tons of defensive value, playing CF and SS, among other positions. He can be a 4th OF and also spend time at SS with Jose Iglesias. Since we traded Garver away, the backup catcher is defensive wizard, Ben Rortvedt.

On the pitching side of things, we have Marcus Stroman as the ace, Manaea as the 2, Pineda the 3rd starter, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober manning the 4 and 5 slots. It obviously isn't a world beating rotation, but it is a lot better than it looks at this moment. Is has moderate upside and not a lot of risk. In the bullpen we have some solid options. For more of the low leverage innings, we have guys like Hand, Moran, Thielbar, and Minaya. For some of the more high leverage innings we have Knebel, Rogers, Duffey, and Alcala. Obviously things could change with performance and injuries. Bullpens are far from a given, as they have some of the most drastic changes from year to year. But overall, this pitching staff will not wow you, but could impress you during the season.

Overall I believe this is a solid lineup that could win you 80 or so games depending on how you play your cards. Obviously the Twins are not World Series contenders in 2022, and are playing more for when some of our current top prospects graduate to re-enforce the team. This way makes us competitive, with a chance to possibly do something, without selling the farm. A lot of things could happen during the 2022 season with the Twins. In 2021, after Acuna got hurt for the Braves, their season looked like it was ending, but they ended up winning a world series. I am not saying to expect anything like that for the Twins in 2022, but don't completely rule them out.

 Share

14 Comments


Recommended Comments

The idea of adding pitching via trades is good. One thing that sticks out is the salary for Knebel. He will get $9-11 million most likely based on contracts already signed by relievers. The Yankees may bite on a trade for a catcher. Do they see Kepler as a CF? This is an interesting look.

Link to comment

I like the moves but I agree with the first poster that your salary for Knebel is waaaaay too low. He is much more likely to get $7-10m after his performance for the Dodgers. The $5m salary for him you project would be a steal. 

While I would also prefer Montas or Bassitt over Maneaa, and would be willing to give up more to get Montas, the cost for Montas is going to be very high and Bassitt is 32 years old, 33 in February. So I would switch to a deal with the Reds, trading Larnach, Strotman and Cole Sands for Sonny Gray. I would give them Winder as well if they swap out Mahle for Gray but I don't think that's enough. I think that the only way to get Mahle would be to trade Miranda or Martin in conjunction with a pitcher like Strotman or even Winder and I don't want to do that. Arguably though, we have Lewis, Martin and Miranda as IF coming up with Polanco still relatively young and Buxton hopefully playing CF for the long term. One of those 3 could be made available if we get young, controllable pitching in return - like Mahle. I would do a Mahle for Martin or Mirnada straight up but I don't think that's enough for the Reds. So bottom line, the package for Gray or Miranda (or Martin) for Mahle. I like the rest. 

Link to comment

love this lineup! maybe someone other than Stroman. feel like he is due for regression and not sure he is a clubhouse fit. maybe a Marlans or another Oakland pitcher. really like the bullpen especially with Knebel, Hand and  Rogers for. late innings. i really believe they. need Miranda up early and feel like I would rather have Arraez in the outfield and not bother with Piscotti.

Link to comment
2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The idea of adding pitching via trades is good. One thing that sticks out is the salary for Knebel. He will get $9-11 million most likely based on contracts already signed by relievers. The Yankees may bite on a trade for a catcher. Do they see Kepler as a CF? This is an interesting look.

I may have undershot the salary for Knebel for a bit but I do not think he will get $10 million. If he was a workhorse then certainly, but he only pitched 25.2 innings last year. I could be wrong, I just don't see it happening. Maybe 7-8 million though. Kepler is certainly capable of playing center field. In his career he has logged over 1100 innings there. He also has a perfect fielding percentage, and 3 DRS. He isn't Byron Buxton in center field but can certainly hold his own. He would certainly be their best option to this point.

Link to comment
38 minutes ago, Scott51104 said:

You can save $ by paying Kirilloff less.

Sorry didn't even notice that. I forgot to change the Sano salary that is put in at 1B($9.25), to Kirilloffs salary ($0.6)

Link to comment
1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I like the moves but I agree with the first poster that your salary for Knebel is waaaaay too low. He is much more likely to get $7-10m after his performance for the Dodgers. The $5m salary for him you project would be a steal. 

While I would also prefer Montas or Bassitt over Maneaa, and would be willing to give up more to get Montas, the cost for Montas is going to be very high and Bassitt is 32 years old, 33 in February. So I would switch to a deal with the Reds, trading Larnach, Strotman and Cole Sands for Sonny Gray. I would give them Winder as well if they swap out Mahle for Gray but I don't think that's enough. I think that the only way to get Mahle would be to trade Miranda or Martin in conjunction with a pitcher like Strotman or even Winder and I don't want to do that. Arguably though, we have Lewis, Martin and Miranda as IF coming up with Polanco still relatively young and Buxton hopefully playing CF for the long term. One of those 3 could be made available if we get young, controllable pitching in return - like Mahle. I would do a Mahle for Martin or Mirnada straight up but I don't think that's enough for the Reds. So bottom line, the package for Gray or Miranda (or Martin) for Mahle. I like the rest. 

Yea I will agree, I did undershoot Knebel. When you said Bassit is 32, that made it seem like you dont want him due to that. Sonny Gray is also 32, maybe it was just a misunderstanding on my part, but I don't understand that. I wouldnt want to trade our higher end young talent, like Larnach, or likely future rotation pieces, like Winder and Sands, for a year or two of a pitcher. It all just depends on what the other team wants I guess. I would much rather trade for Manaea out of all you mentioned, due to certain factors, but that is just me.

Link to comment

Winder may just be the best young pitcher the Twins have. i would trade Ryan before giving up Winder.

Bassitt is a good add and may not require such a high price. Trades may also be on hold as roster decisions are made, meaning we wait until February to see what happens to complete the 2022 team.

Link to comment

No way Stroman takes 4/80 after what Gausman and Ray signed for. He will want a MINIMUM of 5/100 and it will likely take much more per year to sign him given his durability and longer track record of above average production than Gausman or Ray.

Otherwise it is a pretty solid plan!

Link to comment
2 hours ago, Seansy said:

No way Stroman takes 4/80 after what Gausman and Ray signed for. He will want a MINIMUM of 5/100 and it will likely take much more per year to sign him given his durability and longer track record of above average production than Gausman or Ray.

Otherwise it is a pretty solid plan!

Gausman and Ray signed for $22 and $23 million. They both have shown ace stuff the past few years. Many teams believe Stroman would be a good #2, not an ace. Also, with him being towards the end of the high end pitching free agents, many teams have found their guy, causing less competition. Also with Stroman talking a lot on social media recently that could drive some teams away. I think a deal of $20 million AAV is very close to what he gets, whether it is 3-5 years

Link to comment

I also believe that Stroman will get a 5/$100 contract. Stroman is a solid pitcher but not as accomplished as Berrios. It seems unlikely that the Twins would pay Stroman more than $17-18 per year when they were not interested in a long term contract with Berrios like 6/$120. I'm not so sure that avoiding Stroman is unsound. I preferred Berrios. The better value is via trade if that can be accomplished. Twins Daily commenters keep churning out ideas and I'm sure the Twins are sifting through scenarios as well. We will need to wait but I sure hope they can pry away a few good pitchers in trades.

Link to comment
15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I also believe that Stroman will get a 5/$100 contract. Stroman is a solid pitcher but not as accomplished as Berrios. It seems unlikely that the Twins would pay Stroman more than $17-18 per year when they were not interested in a long term contract with Berrios like 6/$120. I'm not so sure that avoiding Stroman is unsound. I preferred Berrios. The better value is via trade if that can be accomplished. Twins Daily commenters keep churning out ideas and I'm sure the Twins are sifting through scenarios as well. We will need to wait but I sure hope they can pry away a few good pitchers in trades.

I personally believe Berrios is not quite as accomplished as Stroman, but has a higher ceiling for sure. I could see both sides of an argument for who is more accomplished though. As far as a Berrios extension with the Twins, it seemed like he just didn't like it here. A big reason why he said he signed that extension with Toronto was because of how much he liked it there, almost implying that Toronto was a much better fit for him than Minnesota. As far as Stroman for 5/$100. I think that is a very fair deal for both sides. The further we get into this offseason makes me think the Twins are waiting for their farm system to provide top end pitchers, rather than buy them as free agents.

Link to comment
7 hours ago, cjm0926 said:

I personally believe Berrios is not quite as accomplished as Stroman

 

Opinions differ. They are similar. The money will almost surely favor Berrios though. 

Berrios is no longer a Twin, but he did everything possible to succeed and i wish him well.

 

Link to comment

Why trade 2 established MLB players in Kepler and Garver for the Yankees #2 SS PROSPECT Peraza (who is not a guarantee to be a MLB caliber SS - REMEMBER Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy ???)  Seems like the Twins should either be giving the Yanks less or getting back much more.  

Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...