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Sconnie’s 2022 Twins Off-Season Plan


Sconnie

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In this scenario the new CBA adopts universal DH. Because of the higher demand for DH, Cruz out price’s the Twins budget. This also makes Sano’s 9 mil and some change contract valuable in trade. Twins trade Sano and his full salary to an NL team for prospects.

130 is a hard budget, no wiggle, including prospects called up and mid-season trades. 2020 and 2021 were challenging for cash flow with much fewer in-person attendees at Target Field. There’s only 1.7 available, it’ll be snug. If something goes really right, they may not be able to swing a trade for a higher end reliever at the deadline.

Buxton is extended at 10 mil per season, I pulled that from the salary AAV from reports. Honestly I’m not sure how the escalators work, I may not have enough budget for bonuses, but we’ll pretend there’s a separate budget line for that.

Pineda signed two years 16 mil. He hasn’t been healthy at all, but has been effective. I think that calls for a discount, and Jax/Dobnak/et al, can fill in the gaps.

im not exactly thrilled with the lineup, but this team is so starved for pitching I had to cheap out on SS. There’ll be some continued growing pains with Larnach and Kirilloff in the every day lineup, with Celestino and Gordon playing frequently as well.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQeRoMg6FEz3LDRWteFLPY7Wkk32DtRgehe_12K5hShNKk9gyVMpJ0TxKgE9tQl4Vlbrh4pN8Hpy_Sv/pubhtml

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3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Not bad but I'm a little nervous depending on Rooker at DH. Also I think Ray will get more in FA than estimated.

I think the Twins will not have a full time DH, Donaldson, Arraez and Rooker will all have significant DH time

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I dont think Thorpe will be on the roster.  Good insight on the idea of trading Sano.  

The thing I struggle with is the 3rd starter the Twins need.  I fir sure see Pineda and a solid starter like Ray, Desclafini, Gray, Matz,..... But do they get a third with all of the prospects we have coming up soon and with Maeda potentially back after the all star break but more likely August....

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They need to Brandon.  They will have every one of those young pitchers on pitch and innings limits.  Plus, I don't think Maeda is pitching at all next year.  They need at least 2 other SP's in addition to Pineda and I'd maintain they need a 4th.  I'd go with a 6-man pitching staff with Ryan and Ober #5 & #6.  And from time to time, those guys would be "skipped" to further protect them.  They may get some reinforcements from the minors (Balazovic, Winder, Duran) but they can't "count" on them.  

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Going into next season the Twins do not have a major league starting staff.  With the top two starters next year having a combined 25 games started in MLB career, it is a little scary.  Even if they go the way of the Rays and do a lot of bullpen games;. You still need talented players to do that.  I don't think most of the Twins pitching prospects are ready to be MLB starters.  Plus we are assuming the Twins may increase or maintain their payroll.  My guess is it will be stagnant or likely decrease perhaps significantly.

And what about the CBA? If there is a work stoppage by the players or owners that cuts into next season will there be any fans left who cares?

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On 10/24/2021 at 10:58 AM, Karbo said:

Not bad but I'm a little nervous depending on Rooker at DH. Also I think Ray will get more in FA than estimated.

I bet the $25M allotted here is already higher than other estimates we're going to see for Ray. He was great this year, but he hasn't been consistently this good and had a clunker in 2020.

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