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40 Man Roster and the Rule 5 Draft


terrydactyls

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Here is one person's thoughts on how to handle the 40 Man roster and the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  I obtained the current roster from MLB.com and the Rule 5 eligibles from a Twins Daily article.

There are currently 42 names on the active roster including the 60-day IL and pending free agents.  From this list, I would drop the following:

Charlie Barnes

Alex Colome

Ralph Garza, Jr

Griffen Jax 

Michael Pineda

Devin Smeltzer 

Lewis Thorpe 

Williams Astudillo 

Andrelton Simmons

Jake Cave

Kyle Garlick

Rob Refsnyder

 

That reduces the list from 42 to 30.  Next I would add the following to protect them from the Rule 5 draft:

Royce Lewis

Jose Miranda

Josh Winder

Blayne Below 

Cole Sands 

Wander Javier 

Jermaine Palacios 

Kody Funderburk

That leaves two empty spots on the 40-man roster.  This is just my opinion and is based on nothing more than a hope for the future and a six-pack of Spotted Cow beer.

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I would not drop Pineda. Resign him. I could see the Twins deciding to release Coulombe. Gant and/or Stashak could also be released. 
 

I am on the fence about La Tortuga. 
 

The Twins got fleeced twice in last year’s rule 5 draft. I hope they leave one roster spot open to make a selection this year. 
 

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Sometimes we go about this the wrong way. 

 

When forced to add someone to the 40-man, you have to take someone off.

 

Happily we have three that will leave soon: Simmons, Pineda, Colome.

 

Now at 39.

 

When adding Rule 5 guys to the roster, you have every hope they will play in 2022. Or, because of their signing status, they are too precious and you need to keep them. Royce Lewis is one such, high ranking, expensive...but with two wasted seasons under his belt. You gotta keep him. Why?

 

The teams you most fear are those that are in rebuild and won't mind carrying a low-level guy for a whole season on their major league roster. The Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. Baddoo, although a decent prospect, was still a High-A ball player. He was behind a wealth of names like Cave, Wade, Larnach, Celestino, Kirilloff for sure. That he played for the Tigers was unheard of in the minds of too many. But he did. The gamble you take.

 

The Twins also will keep Miranda. He should be on the team in 2022 for sure, in some capacity.

 

Now it gets iffy. You need to protect Winder, as he is close. Sands is also very close. Enlow is close to being close, just needs the works and innings. All three would be smart picks by any team to stash in the bullpen. By putting them on your 40-man, the Twins have the luxury of them all working as rotation arms at AAA ball and joining Duran and Balazovic and Strotman as possible future rotation arms for the Twins. That's thee new arms to go with three old ones, none that you would expect to break camp for the Twins unless they were in rebuild mode compared to being competitive.

 

Anyways, now at 44 names on the roster.

 

Two interesting pitching names, both bullpen arms and both converted hitters: Fundeburk and Gore. Gore might be closer and the Twins didn't advance him to AAA, so he may get bypassed. Unless Fundeburk is TOTAL lights out in AFL ball, he should also fall under the radar of other teams. I would take the chance to NOT add them.

 

Palacios is an interesting choice. I would hope I could convince him to return on a minor league contract for some looks at AAA ball. I would have to choose between him or Gordon if I was going to make a 40-man add. I would keep Gordon at this point, especially with Lewis in the wings, and the potential of Martin, as well as Miranda.

 

I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man?

 

Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5.

 

So, we are at 44. We really only need to drop four players, then. Again, you drop players as you add them. At this point, not really a need for a 40-man spot. If you think you are going to do a Rule 5, then you make a spot now (or later, before the draft). If you sign a free agent, you drop a corresponding position player. That's the way to play.

 

But we still need to drop four. 

 

Barnes and Thorpe and Smeltzer are left-handed and rotation possible arms. They should be keepers.

 

Thielbar and Coulombe are left-handed relief pitchers, they can also be kept for the moment, to join Rogers and Moran.

 

That means we have Garza, Stashak, Gant and Dobnak on the bubble. Dobnak will stay because of his contract, but he could be jettisoned to the minors and probably not claimed because of his contract. Stashak is a probable because we don't know where he sits in injury land. If Jax is claimed, good for him getting a job opportunity elsewhere. If the Twins designate him, hopefully resign him for depth. Garza is interesting. He would compete with any minor league free agent signings, and I assume the front office will do a number of those.

 

We are going to easily get to 44, no doubt about that. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Stashak may be too injury prone to worry about NOT losing, so they could be lost. None contributed to the Twins in 2021. 

 

On the offensive front we have a gaggle of outfielders: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Assuming Larnach is in the real mix, Celestino is more valuable than any of the aforementioned names, and you have Arraez/Gordon in the mix, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda in play somewhere...you can jettison all four. I would probably keep the home-grown and cheap Rooker at this point. But he would be removable if you signed anther outfielder or a designated hitter.

 

So, if we remove Cave, Garlick and Refsnyder, we only have to cut one of the many pitchers mentioned above, for the moment.

 

And we still have Willians Astudillo on the roster.

 

In the end, add: Lewis, Winder, Sands, Enlow, Miranda.

 

Lose: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder and one of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak.

 

We still keep Astudillo, Rooker, Coulombe, Thielbar, Garza, Jax, Barnes and two of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. Hey, and we also keep Gant, who MAY BE arbitration too expensive. But what is $4 mil these days? That's still ten guys - TEN GUYS - that can be removed for someone better!

 

I don't see Gore or Fundeburk or Javier or Palacios or Cabbage playing in the majors in 2022 fer sure, and especially don't see another team gambling to start the season with any of them on the roster for the first few months.

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Will be interesting how Twins handle, I am in the cleaning house camp. Not so much for the starters at MLB but hope Twins move on from a few players that have already had an opportunity as bench players for a couple of years. There is some risk/reward involved, but would rather take risk on someone unproven than someone that has proven to be only a borderline MLB player. I also doubt that Twins will contend next year, making it easier to take chances on unproven players.

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8 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man?

Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5.

I don't think Cabbage is a worthwhile prospect, and Javier is a defense-only player at this point. You can find other players with their skills on minor league deals, and thus I wouldn't bother adding them to the 40 man.

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2 hours ago, bronald3030 said:

I would hope they take a chance on a hard throwing arm in the rule 5 draft. Stick him at the back of the bullpen an hope you find a gem.

... and if by some miracle they are in contention in June or July, and the draftee is scuffling and seeming to hold them back, they can reverse course and offer him back to the original team.

If they aren't contending, then they can put up with a lot less production from that one spot on the roster, if the talent seems there.

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16 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Sometimes we go about this the wrong way. 

 

When forced to add someone to the 40-man, you have to take someone off.

 

Happily we have three that will leave soon: Simmons, Pineda, Colome.

 

Now at 39.

 

When adding Rule 5 guys to the roster, you have every hope they will play in 2022. Or, because of their signing status, they are too precious and you need to keep them. Royce Lewis is one such, high ranking, expensive...but with two wasted seasons under his belt. You gotta keep him. Why?

 

The teams you most fear are those that are in rebuild and won't mind carrying a low-level guy for a whole season on their major league roster. The Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. Baddoo, although a decent prospect, was still a High-A ball player. He was behind a wealth of names like Cave, Wade, Larnach, Celestino, Kirilloff for sure. That he played for the Tigers was unheard of in the minds of too many. But he did. The gamble you take.

 

The Twins also will keep Miranda. He should be on the team in 2022 for sure, in some capacity.

 

Now it gets iffy. You need to protect Winder, as he is close. Sands is also very close. Enlow is close to being close, just needs the works and innings. All three would be smart picks by any team to stash in the bullpen. By putting them on your 40-man, the Twins have the luxury of them all working as rotation arms at AAA ball and joining Duran and Balazovic and Strotman as possible future rotation arms for the Twins. That's thee new arms to go with three old ones, none that you would expect to break camp for the Twins unless they were in rebuild mode compared to being competitive.

 

Anyways, now at 44 names on the roster.

 

Two interesting pitching names, both bullpen arms and both converted hitters: Fundeburk and Gore. Gore might be closer and the Twins didn't advance him to AAA, so he may get bypassed. Unless Fundeburk is TOTAL lights out in AFL ball, he should also fall under the radar of other teams. I would take the chance to NOT add them.

 

Palacios is an interesting choice. I would hope I could convince him to return on a minor league contract for some looks at AAA ball. I would have to choose between him or Gordon if I was going to make a 40-man add. I would keep Gordon at this point, especially with Lewis in the wings, and the potential of Martin, as well as Miranda.

 

I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man?

 

Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5.

 

So, we are at 44. We really only need to drop four players, then. Again, you drop players as you add them. At this point, not really a need for a 40-man spot. If you think you are going to do a Rule 5, then you make a spot now (or later, before the draft). If you sign a free agent, you drop a corresponding position player. That's the way to play.

 

But we still need to drop four. 

 

Barnes and Thorpe and Smeltzer are left-handed and rotation possible arms. They should be keepers.

 

Thielbar and Coulombe are left-handed relief pitchers, they can also be kept for the moment, to join Rogers and Moran.

 

That means we have Garza, Stashak, Gant and Dobnak on the bubble. Dobnak will stay because of his contract, but he could be jettisoned to the minors and probably not claimed because of his contract. Stashak is a probable because we don't know where he sits in injury land. If Jax is claimed, good for him getting a job opportunity elsewhere. If the Twins designate him, hopefully resign him for depth. Garza is interesting. He would compete with any minor league free agent signings, and I assume the front office will do a number of those.

 

We are going to easily get to 44, no doubt about that. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Stashak may be too injury prone to worry about NOT losing, so they could be lost. None contributed to the Twins in 2021. 

 

On the offensive front we have a gaggle of outfielders: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Assuming Larnach is in the real mix, Celestino is more valuable than any of the aforementioned names, and you have Arraez/Gordon in the mix, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda in play somewhere...you can jettison all four. I would probably keep the home-grown and cheap Rooker at this point. But he would be removable if you signed anther outfielder or a designated hitter.

 

So, if we remove Cave, Garlick and Refsnyder, we only have to cut one of the many pitchers mentioned above, for the moment.

 

And we still have Willians Astudillo on the roster.

 

In the end, add: Lewis, Winder, Sands, Enlow, Miranda.

 

Lose: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder and one of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak.

 

We still keep Astudillo, Rooker, Coulombe, Thielbar, Garza, Jax, Barnes and two of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. Hey, and we also keep Gant, who MAY BE arbitration too expensive. But what is $4 mil these days? That's still ten guys - TEN GUYS - that can be removed for someone better!

 

I don't see Gore or Fundeburk or Javier or Palacios or Cabbage playing in the majors in 2022 fer sure, and especially don't see another team gambling to start the season with any of them on the roster for the first few months.

Love the method you use to work through this.  Add me to those who believe the Twins are higher on Jax than many fans.  Also, that one or both of Thorpe and Smeltzer have played their last games for the Twins...unless they sign a minor league contract after not being claimed.

Seriously doubt that Javier will get added.  As you said, this summer was better but not by so much that he would now be added.  Palacios, now there is an interesting question?  I doubt it, but wouldn't be shocked.

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