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Ranking Twins Top Trade Pieces - Part 2


Mill1634

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Following the disappointing series loss to the Texas Rangers,

I released part one of my trade value rankings of current Major Leaguers on the Twins roster. The first part of this series was littered with names that are either unlikely to be moved, like Josh Donaldson, or by players who wouldn't fetch much in return like Alex Colome. However, the Twins have plenty of talent on this team that have the potential to get a good haul of prospects or young MLB talent in return, and you will start to see some of those names today. As I said a few days ago, there is a chance that the Twins turn it around, but going 1-1 against Detroit doesn't help.

 

11. LH SP J.A. Happ

 

Happ was signed on a one year deal this past offseason, and the salary is modest at only 8 million dollars. By the time Happ will be moved, there will be less than five million left on the hook for the southpaw. Much like Robles, the odds that Happ is moved if the Twins continue down this path is extremely likely. Happ has pitched very well thus far, earning 0.8 WAR in 28.1 IP. Happ isn't getting the strikeouts that he has in the past at only 5.1 per 9 innings, but he's limiting hard contact, and doesn't give away free passes. He can fit in as a number three or four starter for a playoff team, and the prospect return would be modest, likely between 15-20 MLB pipeline ranking, depending on the farm system strength.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Possible Prospects: SS Eduardo Garcia (8, instructional league)

 

10. LH RF Max Kepler

 

Kepler was another rebound hopefully that the front office had faith in, and rightfully so. Kepler had a breakout year in 2019, and was a main cog at the top of the order. However, he fell off in 2020, OPSing only .760, which is only a hair above league average. 2021 hasn't been any kinder to the German outfielder, hitting only .213. Another issue with Max is that his strikeout rate has climbed 3% since 2019 to 21%. Max is still a very good corner outfielder, and has been using his legs on the base-path more than we've seen in the past with four stolen bases. However, Kepler is signed through 2023, and has a team option in the 2024 season. The money isn't outrageous at an average of of 8.5M, but the length may scare some teams away if he truly is only a league average outfielder.

Prediction: Not moved

 

9. RH C Mitch Garver

 

Mitch Garver was an MVP candidate in 2019 due to his rare power behind the plate. Garver had an insane home run per at bat rate at 9.9%, while being an above average pitch framer. He also took home the Silver Slugger award for his prowess at the plate. However, much like many other Twins on this list, Garver struggled in 2020. We know Garver was battling an injury, and much like Jorge Polanco, we assumed that all would be fine in 2021. While the power has reappeared for the right hander, he is still swinging and missing a lot, and the pitch framing is more average than good now. When Garver hits the ball, he hits it extremely hard, but at this point he is more of a boom or bust type of hitter than anything else. Garver is still under team control in 2022 and 2023 at a cheap salary, which makes him more valuable to buying teams. I believe that if the Twins continue to struggle this season, Garver will be moved and the Twins will attempt to build around Ryan Jeffers.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Possible Prospects: LHP Tucker Davidson (7, AAA), LHP Kyle Muller (10, AAA), S OF Michael Harris (13, A+)

 

8. RH RP Tyler Duffey

 

Duffey was one of the best relievers in baseball the past few years and had the trust of manager Rocco Baldelli as the 'fireman' arm. We often saw Duffey come into high leverage spots in the middle of games, and Duffey would get out of the inning without allowing a run. We've seen Tyler get the same opportunities into 2021, but like the rest of the Twins bullpen arms, he is not having the same success at stranding inherited runners. Duffey has one more year of team control remaining, so it is possible that the Twins take this up as a 'retooling" year, as Duffey would only be in line to make between 3-4 million dollars in 2022. However, this extra year of team control makes him more attractive to a potential buyer. I think if the Twins can fight back to a few games below .500 by the ASG, the Twins will opt to keep Duffey, but if they're 5+ games out, he'll be moved.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Possible Prospects: RH OF Yhoswar Garcia (14, R), RHP Eduar Segovia (21, A)

 

7. RH SP Michael Pineda

 

AP19244647195614.jpeg?w=620

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

 

The final player on the second edition of this list is Michael Pineda, better known around Twins territory as Big Mike. Pineda was brought in while recovering from an arm injury, and then was hit with a PED suspension, but Pineda has been as consistent of a mid-rotation starter as you'll find. He's not going to get a ton of strikeouts, but you know he's going to give you at least five good innings and keep your team in the ballgame. Pineda is on an expiring deal which will limit the prospect return, but he's a definite playoff starter on any rotation in the league (besides the Dodgers, doesn't count). Much like J.A. Happ, I expect Pineda to be dealt barring a drastic turnaround.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Possible Prospects: RH P Luis Medina (6, A+), RH 2B Ezequiel Duran (8, A+), RH SS Anthony Volpe (14, A)

 

Note: All prospect rankings come from Fangraphs.

10 Comments


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Fire sale, if all these forecasts come true.

Thus far I have the following being traded:

 

Pineda (expiring)

Happ (expiring)

Duffey (1 year of arb remaining)

Garver (2 years of arb remaining, I am not super confident in him being moved but lean more towards yes than no)

Colome (expiring)

Robles (expiring)

 

If the Twins do decide that they are not competitive come July, I think all expiring guy would be moved, besides maybe Pineda if they take this as a retooling year and want to extend him. 

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I don’t think it will be as much of a fire sale as you do. Out of this list of players, only Happ is traded IMO for a modest return. It’s unlikely a contender views him as a playoff starter since the Yankees moved him to the pen in recent years. 
 

There’s a chance Big Mike is moved as well on his expiring contract if the season is lost by late July. In that case, I hope it’s a trade and sign back in FA this winter. 
 

Can’t see Garver being moved unless it’s an overpay. He’ll still be affordable and still provides offensive upside compared to most catchers around the league. 

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1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think it will be as much of a fire sale as you do. Out of this list of players, only Happ is traded IMO for a modest return. It’s unlikely a contender views him as a playoff starter since the Yankees moved him to the pen in recent years. 
 

There’s a chance Big Mike is moved as well on his expiring contract if the season is lost by late July. In that case, I hope it’s a trade and sign back in FA this winter. 
 

Can’t see Garver being moved unless it’s an overpay. He’ll still be affordable and still provides offensive upside compared to most catchers around the league. 

I agree that this is the most likely scenario, but I'm writing this as if we're 8+ games back at the trade deadline and there isn't any hope of making a comeback in the last 2 months. If that's the case, I think there will be more trades. If the Twins are selling off pieces (Happ, Pineda, Robles), then Simmons will certainly be moved as well. 

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I am also predicting that unless they sign extensions, both Buxton and Berrios will be moved.  They will be gone for little of less (depending on the new CBA) after 2022.

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Of this list I would expect that Kepler will be gone and Sano will be a bench player, gone or released.

Outfield will be Arreaz, New to the system, Laurich

1b will be Kiriloff, 2B polonco, ss Simmons (if resigned), 3B Donaldson

C Jeffers. 

 

View should be on finding more pitching in these deals.

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8 hours ago, beckmt said:

Of this list I would expect that Kepler will be gone and Sano will be a bench player, gone or released.

Outfield will be Arreaz, New to the system, Laurich

1b will be Kiriloff, 2B polonco, ss Simmons (if resigned), 3B Donaldson

C Jeffers. 

 

View should be on finding more pitching in these deals.

I'd be fairly shocked if either Berrios or Buxton are moved, unless the FO is fully committing to a full blown rebuild, which I seriously doubt with Larnach/AK/Lewis this close, or already in the major leagues, and Duran and Jordan not far behind. 

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3 hours ago, Mill1634 said:

I'd be fairly shocked if either Berrios or Buxton are moved, unless the FO is fully committing to a full blown rebuild, which I seriously doubt with Larnach/AK/Lewis this close, or already in the major leagues, and Duran and Jordan not far behind. 

I think you have rose colored glasses.  White Sox are only getting better over the next 2 - 3 years and maybe for the next 10.  Unless you think Berrios or Buxton will sign an extension (not at above market value) they will be gone after 2022.  But you need to do this over the next two months as by July you will probably be out of it (especially if you lose the next 6) and have to make the tough decisions.  Unless you feel you can survive (if there is a QA, which I doubt will be part of the next CBA), you have to get value for Berrios  and Buxton this year.  

You also need the FO to change their view on players to players like Arreaz and power hitters in that mold and high energy pitching(must for bullpen).  If they will not change, they must be fired.  This is already a total system failure, why make it worse.

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Just now, beckmt said:

I think you have rose colored glasses.  White Sox are only getting better over the next 2 - 3 years and maybe for the next 10.  Unless you think Berrios or Buxton will sign an extension (not at above market value) they will be gone after 2022.  But you need to do this over the next two months as by July you will probably be out of it (especially if you lose the next 6) and have to make the tough decisions.  Unless you feel you can survive (if there is a QA, which I doubt will be part of the next CBA), you have to get value for Berrios  and Buxton this year.  

You also need the FO to change their view on players to players like Arreaz and power hitters in that mold and high energy pitching(must for bullpen).  If they will not change, they must be fired.  This is already a total system failure, why make it worse.

I agree that the white sox will get better in the next 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean that the twins should just fold and call it a day. There is enough individual talent on this team, and prospects either already up, or on the brink that I think that they can retool and make something of a mix of current players, prospects they’ve developed, and players they target in trades or free agency. With the new CBA coming up, it is very likely that we some form of expanded playoffs that we saw last year, in which I would give the twins a very good chance at making in 2022. I do agree that they front office needs to change their mold of players they target and go for more electric arms like alcala in the bullpen, and diversify the lineup with a mixture of power and OBP guys. The good news it that AK is a great average hitter, and Larnach isn’t a boom or bust hitter like sano or garver. Lewis should be a 5 tool player as well. Add in Arraez and Polanco, and you have a more well rounded lineup than the bomba squad. I do think that an extension on berrios should be given, assuming it’s around 100-110 over 4 years. I’d sign that and not blink. Buxton I hesitate to give huge money to because of the injuries, and think they should consider a trade for young MLB ready talent. 
 

it will be interesting to see what type of player the twins draft in a few months, as we’ve seen them target power college hitters. I’d like to see them take a bit more of a toolsy player, but it’s clear they have their type. 

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1 hour ago, Mill1634 said:

I agree that the white sox will get better in the next 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean that the twins should just fold and call it a day. There is enough individual talent on this team, and prospects either already up, or on the brink that I think that they can retool and make something of a mix of current players, prospects they’ve developed, and players they target in trades or free agency. With the new CBA coming up, it is very likely that we some form of expanded playoffs that we saw last year, in which I would give the twins a very good chance at making in 2022. I do agree that they front office needs to change their mold of players they target and go for more electric arms like alcala in the bullpen, and diversify the lineup with a mixture of power and OBP guys. The good news it that AK is a great average hitter, and Larnach isn’t a boom or bust hitter like sano or garver. Lewis should be a 5 tool player as well. Add in Arraez and Polanco, and you have a more well rounded lineup than the bomba squad. I do think that an extension on berrios should be given, assuming it’s around 100-110 over 4 years. I’d sign that and not blink. Buxton I hesitate to give huge money to because of the injuries, and think they should consider a trade for young MLB ready talent. 
 

it will be interesting to see what type of player the twins draft in a few months, as we’ve seen them target power college hitters. I’d like to see them take a bit more of a toolsy player, but it’s clear they have their type. 

Berrios may take more years than you want to give to sign.  And between him and Buxton, he might be the more replaceable with the young pitching talent the Twins have coming. Problem is Cleveland's pitching is not going away and Kansas City is coming, Twins are just a pack team unless some of their youngsters hit. 

I would move the bullpen pieces up quickly and see where we stand, we may not have time to fully assess where the youngsters are before July.

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