The other day I was listening to one of my go-to baseball podcasts, Effectively Wild. The hosts interviewed John Bitzer, creator of BaseballTradeValues.com. BTV is designed to simulate trades scenarios and estimate relative value of the players included, and the model incorporates variables like projected performance, prospect rankings, committed salary, inflation, years of control, aging curve, and roster flexibility.
The timing couldn't be better with the trade deadline fast approaching. I spent literal hours on BTV today and came up with some interesting scenarios. The site is quick to note that they won't be 100% accurate and don't factor in things like a specific club's propensity to spend or its roster needs, but even so, it's a great way to double-check your own assumptions about what a player on the Twins or a potential trade partner is worth relative to other trade chips. You could make a case that Royce Lewis should be a bit lower given his early season struggles or Jordan Balazovic should be significantly higher after a strong start, but most of the Twins values feel pretty close.
Below are a few examples of trades BTV gave a thumbs up to as fair for both sides:
Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray
Twins: Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero
Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles
Twins: Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade Jr.
Mets: Noah Syndergaard
Twins: Royce Lewis, Lewis Thorpe
Mets: Jacob deGrom
Twins: Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon
Giants: Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith
Twins: Wander Javier, Lewis Thorpe
Comment with some trades you work out on BTV!