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BaseballTradeValues.com is your new favorite website


Greg Logan

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Twins Video

The other day I was listening to one of my go-to baseball podcasts, Effectively Wild. The hosts interviewed John Bitzer, creator of BaseballTradeValues.com. BTV is designed to simulate trades scenarios and estimate relative value of the players included, and the model incorporates variables like projected performance, prospect rankings, committed salary, inflation, years of control, aging curve, and roster flexibility.

 

The timing couldn't be better with the trade deadline fast approaching. I spent literal hours on BTV today and came up with some interesting scenarios. The site is quick to note that they won't be 100% accurate and don't factor in things like a specific club's propensity to spend or its roster needs, but even so, it's a great way to double-check your own assumptions about what a player on the Twins or a potential trade partner is worth relative to other trade chips. You could make a case that Royce Lewis should be a bit lower given his early season struggles or Jordan Balazovic should be significantly higher after a strong start, but most of the Twins values feel pretty close.

 

Below are a few examples of trades BTV gave a thumbs up to as fair for both sides:

 

Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray

Twins: Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Fernando Romero

 

Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles

Twins: Brusdar Graterol, Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade Jr.

 

Mets: Noah Syndergaard

Twins: Royce Lewis, Lewis Thorpe

 

Mets: Jacob deGrom

Twins: Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon

 

Giants: Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith

Twins: Wander Javier, Lewis Thorpe

 

Comment with some trades you work out on BTV!

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I like Rooker a lot too but he’s nearly MLB-ready and the Twins are deep at both OF and 1B. Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Cron will all be back, and Sano will need to shift to 1B eventually. You never know with anyone, but Rooker feels as dispensable as anyone in the system.

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I'm not giving up Kiriloff, Graterol or Lewis for any deal, realistic or not.  Everyone else is fair game, within reason.  I wouldn't give up more than a couple of our top mound prospects, but would have no trouble parting with multiple IF/OF candidates where I believe we have an abundance.  I'm a big fan of Lewin Diaz, and would hope he can be retained to compete for the 1B job in '20 or '21.

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I'm not giving up Kiriloff, Graterol or Lewis for any deal, realistic or not.  Everyone else is fair game, within reason.  

 

This is fair, but I think in that case we need to be realistic about the caliber of starter we'd receive in a trade. Guys like deGrom and Syndergaard aren't going to change hands without a potentially franchise-changing prospect attached.

 

I also think this is a reason we're hearing chatter about the Padres and Syndergaard. They just have such a deep top of the farm to work from for that kind of deal.

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This is fair, but I think in that case we need to be realistic about the caliber of starter we'd receive in a trade. Guys like deGrom and Syndergaard aren't going to change hands without a potentially franchise-changing prospect attached.

 

I also think this is a reason we're hearing chatter about the Padres and Syndergaard. They just have such a deep top of the farm to work from for that kind of deal.

 

I agree, Greg.  I don't think that either Met starter is a realistic target for the Twins.  I'm hoping a MadBum/Smith or Stroman/Giles package could be made without including any of my 3 hands-off candidates. 

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What does that site say we could get for Sano? Just curious.

 

They consider him to have some value, but I think the challenge with Sano would be finding a team that's currently selling but still needs a 3B/1B for 2020 and 2021. That seems like a tight needle to thread.

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I just played around with BTV.com, and I think we should do a few of these deals that were approved according to that website. It might help out our team this year:
 
Royce Lewis and Adam Bechtold for Mike Trout
Kiriloff for Freddie Freeman, Kevin Gausman, and Luke Jackson
Graterol and Wade for Gerrit Cole, Michael Brantley, and Roberto Osuna.
 
Do you guys think those deals would help our chances this year? Who says no to these deals???

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I've got to question this website, at least at the extremes.

 

Royce Lewis for Mike Trout straight up is considered a fair trade.

 

Would anybody here realistically NOT deal Lewis for Trout???

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