Article: Draft Board v.2.0 (3/13)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...d-v-2-0-(3-13)

[ashburyjohn]

You've got me sold on Gray for the moment - it's gotta be a pitcher. But with so much time until the draft, and at #4, the Twins will be favored to pick a lot of different guys between now and then.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Agreed. But a pitcher flying up the board like he has, really benefits the Twins.

Now what if I told you Jonathan Gray was Jeff Gray's second cousin, once-removed? (I'm totally kidding, by the way.)

[mike wants wins]

I wish the Appel would fall again.....but why would he, really?

[3rd Inning Stretch]

If Frazier is there, I don't think you can pass, OF or not. Deal with it four years from now when he's ready.

[Jeff P]

I want Appel but if it means taking a bunch cheap options in later rounds then I would pass. There are too many good prospects to effectively put so many eggs in one basket. I would rather play it straight up and take a chance that he won't sign for near slot. Worst case is we get #5 next year in what is supposed to be a deeper draft.

[mike wants wins]

And you keep passing on ace potential pitchers, where do you get them? Not in trade....not in free agency....if the twins do not draft them, how do they get them?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Agreed. But a pitcher flying up the board like he has, really benefits the Twins.

Now what if I told you Jonathan Gray was Jeff Gray's second cousin, once-removed? (I'm totally kidding, by the way.)

That was my first thought that came to mind. Hmmm J. Gray..... Where have I seen that before?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I really think we have no chance at getting Manaea with #4. I would say there are only 3 viable options for the Twins. That would be Appel, Stanek, and Gray. It should get easier from there if any of those guys are drafted in the top 3 along with Manaea as well. I liked the Buxton pick at the time last year, but there is absolutely no reason not to grab a pitcher this year with the first pick. Appel is definitely the first choice and the Twins would be nuts to pass on him. I still favor Stanek over Gray, but if those are the only 2 left (of the three I mentioned) it becomes a very interesting situation.

[Kwak]

I have not heard of any SS or C named as potential "top 5" talent--therefore, it's clear--Best Available Pitcher. True, we have all read about the high prospect rankings for some Twins minor leaguers. Sadly, many prospects don't pan out--so a franchise had better be loaded with them to ensure a steady flow of quality pitching advancing to the parent team. The Twins need to overstock on pitching.

[2wins87]

How about Reese McGuire or Jonathan Denney? Might not end up being top 5 guys, but from what I've read they could go top ten, and have bats that might play at a corner outfield spot, but could definitely stick at catcher if a team doesn't want to rush them (sounds like the Twins).

I'd at least have them on my prospects to watch.

[clutterheart]

Right now, Frazier should be the #1 pick but lot can happen between now and then. I'm thinking Appel will be gone by the time the Twins pick. But I think if Manaea is available, they take him
If the Twins don't draft a pitcher, hope they take this guy:
2013 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS - Minor League Ball

I am surprised he didn't make your board. In the few sites I read, he is getting a lot of steam and if he has a good year, he'll be a top 10 pick.
This team could use a good catcher and right now, he looks to be the best of the bunch.

[jmlease1]

I both love Appel and am terrified of him. And Scott Boras has very little to do with it, although that is a bit of a problem is it means the Twins can't make quality signings because they have to go so far over slot to sign him. But if you draft him with the #4 pick, you really have to sign him, right? My real concern is that he's Mark Prior, vol. II. He's put up some ridiculous pitch counts in college and it has me concerned that he's going to break down quickly. You'd like the #4 overall pick to have a MLB career that's more than 3 solid seasons, 1 great season, and then no more seasons.

Fortunately the draft is a ways off. The Twins have 2 major needs in the system: high-end starting pitching (because you always need it) and middle infield. But it doesn't look like there's a killer SS prospect right now.

[2wins87]

I'm not so sure Frazier isn't a guy who can be passed up for some of the other players in the draft. This may be me just rationalizing why the Twins shouldn't pick another toolsy CF if he's available at #4, but he's only 5'11" with a fairly solid frame already, so there's not that much room for projection. He'll also be almost 19 at draft time, this isn't something you consider if he's the best player available, but guys that are younger for their level do tend to have more future success.

Anyway, before the season started I didn't see anyone saying that if he and Buxton were in the same class, Frazier would go ahead of Buxton. I'm not sure the HS season will change that, Buxton just has a lot more projectability. But it's hard to ignore a guy who's done nothing but hit bombs since the season started, so I don't know. I'm sort of hoping that he keeps it up so one of the teams ahead of the Twins feels that they can't pass and the Twins get a shot at their favorite pitcher.

[Forever34]

Isn't Appel a senior this year? If Bor******* can't threaten to make him sit out again what leverage does he have? What's he going to do? Play in the Northern League until someone gives him the money he wants? This is the perfect year to take him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Both the prep catchers are on the radar. As of about a week ago, McGuire's season hadn't started, so he hadn't been scouted by the regional supervisor. I'll have to dig more on Denney. My gut says they don't go in the top 10. But my gut's been wrong before.

Frazier probably profiles better in the corner of the outfield. From a scout who has seen him (and Meadows and Buxton) a number of times, "Frazier has power, not the same hitter as Meadows, but a power threat each time he steps in the box. Frazier can run, throw & has power but is not the hitter or fielder Byron was." Frazier would be a perfect right-fielder, right-handed power hitter at Target Field. (I'd even take him at 3B.)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Isn't Appel a senior this year? If Bor******* can't threaten to make him sit out again what leverage does he have? What's he going to do? Play in the Northern League until someone gives him the money he wants? This is the perfect year to take him.

He's not subject to the signing deadline, so that gives them a little leverage. If he doesn't get the money, he'll sit out and probably play Indy Ball. Regardless, I'd take him and get it worked out. At the end of the day, he just needs to sign for more that Pittsburgh offered him... and Boras looks like he made the right decision.

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston do what they did last year and grab a top 10 guy #1 and use some of the money later. It worked out well for them and, even more than the Twins, they need lots of talent. My guess is that Appel and Boras won't slip past the Cubs. They'll have a ton of money to throw at him and they can easily double what the Pirates offered last year so Appel's gamble pays off. Boras and Theo might even have some "understanding" about service time going in. I just don't see Appel being there at #4. If he is, grab him. Rockies and Twins are both probably dreaming of an elite pitcher.

I'm really hoping a few of these other pitchers turn it around and be there at 4.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I agree with you completely, gunnarthor. I am really curious to see how many teams look at the Astros and Blue Jays approach and try to do the same thing. There were a handful of teams that took similar, though more subtle approaches last year, and I know that scouts within organizations were not pleased with how rounds 3-10 went, some calling it a "complete joke". There were a handful of players that got $1,000 signing bonuses.

[AmateurScoutGuy]

The Twins absolutely have to take the best college arm available. They cannot take a projectable, toolsy prep position player. They don't have that option because of their talent in their system right now. They need an arm that can be in the rotation by late 2013/early 2014 and can be a top 2 starter. In my opinion, right now the 2 most polished ready to go college arms are Appel and Manaea in that order. If both are gone, then the Twins take whichever college arm is next on their depth chart. Gray's ceiling is high, but he has a lot of risk. Stanek has tons of potential too and finishing the season strong like Gausman did last year will help his cause.

The Twins need a college arm.