Article: Draft Board v.2.0 (3/13)

[mike wants wins]

Just think, they could have taken Gausman last year, and now be free to take a HS toolsy OFer, or a SP.....but now, really, with no clear AWESOME hitter, they pretty much have to take a SP. You can't get an ace or even a number 2 w/o picking high in the draft, generally. Heck, for months people have been saying on this very board taht the Twins problem is that they were too good in the 2000s, and had late first round picks. Now people are trying to say they should have top 5 picks in back to back years, be flush in OF prospects, and should pass on great pitching prospects two years in a row?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If, today, we're comparing Buxton and one of Appel/Manaea/Gray/Stanek to Gausman and Frazier, I'm taking the pair with Buxton in it. I like Gausman a lot (and I'd put him right in that other mix), but Buxton is a much better prospect than Frazier. Different, but better.

I think it will work out for the Twins because I believe there will be a really good college pitcher that hears his name called when the Twins are on the clock.

[gunnarthor]

Not sure anyone is saying pass on top pitching prospects. Some are saying take best player available, which as Klaw noted today, would almost certainly be a pitcher. They lineup well. I think the concern might be if Appel, Manea and Stanek go 1-2-3, if there would be a 4th pitcher good enough to go #4. But we have months to go before we have to worry about that.

[AmateurScoutGuy]

Regarding Gausman: I was just saying that he started slow and finished strong last year at LSU. Stanek has had a slow start so far as well at Arkansas.

[Brad Swanson]

Right now, Frazier should be the #1 pick but lot can happen between now and then. I'm thinking Appel will be gone by the time the Twins pick. But I think if Manaea is available, they take him
If the Twins don't draft a pitcher, hope they take this guy:
2013 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan Denney, C, Oklahoma HS - Minor League Ball

I am surprised he didn't make your board. In the few sites I read, he is getting a lot of steam and if he has a good year, he'll be a top 10 pick.
This team could use a good catcher and right now, he looks to be the best of the bunch.

I like Denney a lot too. I think he might sneak into the top 5, like Mike Zunino last season (although Zunino was a college catcher).

It seems a lot of people want a college arm. I'm fine with that, so long as it's the best available player. Too much can change, even with college arms that look like sure things, to pass up someone with huge upside. Danny Hultzen would be an example. He could still iron things out, but he could end up a bust just as much as Bubba Starling, taken 3 picks later. If it's down to a college arm that you sort of like, or an outfielder that you love, I'd take the better player and deal with positional issues when/if it becomes an issue.

Just my opinion. All that being said, I like Manaea and Appel, but I'm not so sure I would take Stanek or Gray over Frazier or even Meadows.

[mike wants wins]

What is BPA, though? How big a difference does there need to be to take another toolsy OFer, that is 5 years away, between that OFer and the best pitcher? How do you propose getting a pitcher, if you don't ever draft them at the top of the draft? And yes, there are now two people in the thread saying they'd pass on college arms for HS hitters.

[Brad Swanson]

Yes, I absolutely would pass on a college arm for a HS hitter, if I felt the HS hitter was better.

I just always prefer taking the best player. Although, I will admit that deciding on the "best player" is a huge challenge and not as simple as I am making it out to be.

[Brad Swanson]

I agree with you completely, gunnarthor. I am really curious to see how many teams look at the Astros and Blue Jays approach and try to do the same thing. There were a handful of teams that took similar, though more subtle approaches last year, and I know that scouts within organizations were not pleased with how rounds 3-10 went, some calling it a "complete joke". There were a handful of players that got $1,000 signing bonuses.

This is where Gray gets more interesting to me. If the Twins knew he would sign under slot (for whatever reason), I'd have no problem with the Twins drafting him 4th, then using extra money later in the draft. I'd love to see them get Chris Okey or Jeremy Martinez with their next pick, pay them extra and get them in the system.

Of course, if Gray is really hitting 100 consistently, he probably won't have to sign under slot. But I still like that strategy.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Re: Denney. Text from Twins scout: 1st rounder, Top 10 might be high, seeing him Monday in Phoenix.

Hopefully I'll be able to get more then...

[mike wants wins]

Yes, I absolutely would pass on a college arm for a HS hitter, if I felt the HS hitter was better.

I just always prefer taking the best player. Although, I will admit that deciding on the "best player" is a huge challenge and not as simple as I am making it out to be.

how do you get great pitching if you would literally always pass on it if there is a better hitter available? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I really want to know....how would you get great pitching if you would pass on it for a hitter every time, if you felt there was a slightly better hitter available?

[John Bonnes]

how do you get great pitching if you would literally always pass on it if there is a better hitter available? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I really want to know....how would you get great pitching if you would pass on it for a hitter every time, if you felt there was a slightly better hitter available?

International draft. Find a guy in a later round that is still going to be a great pitcher. Trade for a premier player.

I'm a little surprised how many posts I'm seeing here that suggest people will be really dissappointed if the Twins don't come out of this draft with a college arm.

Based on nothing more than Jeremy's writeups, it looks like there are four pretty good options in this draft: 3 college pitchers (Appel, Manea, Gray) and one high school outfielder (Frazier). If Frazier is the one of those guys that is left by pick #4, and my only other choice is a second tier college pitcher, I'd rather they take Frazier, in theory.

[cmb0252]

Draft a good pitcher in later rounds and develop them? Obviously this has been a weakness for our system but hopefully that will change with JO. Its not every 1/2 pitcher is from top 5 picks.

From what I can tell there are currently only 4 elite guys right now (Appel, Manaea, fraizer, and Bryant), which currently works out for us. There is still a long way to go but if the draft was held today and both Appel/Manaea were gone give my Bryant. Dude is going to be a beast

[gunnarthor]

how do you get great pitching if you would literally always pass on it if there is a better hitter available? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I really want to know....how would you get great pitching if you would pass on it for a hitter every time, if you felt there was a slightly better hitter available?

I don't think anyone is really arguing the theory with you - we all hope the Twins grab a pitcher. But last year, Buxton was the nearly consensus top guy. BA has him as a top 10 prospect in baseball right now. Neither Gausman, Zimmer or Appel were on his level. And keep in mind, all had questions - Appel wanted a lot of money, Zimmer's arm had some issues as the draft approached (and he got some offseason surgery), Gausman might have been the safest of the three but there were/are questions if he could develop a third pitch. The Twins did load up on pitchers in the supplemental draft and later so I think they are aiming for pitchers but Buxton was too good to pass on. I don't think they thought he was "slightly" better, I think they thought he was a lot better. I doubt that, on their draft board, there was any real difference between Berrios and Gallo but they took the arm instead of the bat.

[mike wants wins]

Gausman and Zimmer are right next to Buxton in many of the prospect ranking lists, literally on one list right after him I believe. Buxtion also has questions, though. It's not like we are looking at a guy people thought of as harper or longoria.....he would not have even been a top 5-10 pick the previous year, from what I've read.

that's may question, though....how much better does the hitter have to be, if you already are "loaded" at the OF spot, and have no number 1 (or probably 2) pitchers in your entire system.

And if it doesn't matter if you take a guy in the top five, because you can find pitchers later in the draft or internationally, isn't that true of hitters too? I mean, is it realy peoples' argument that draft position does not matter? Aren't most great players (not all, most) higher draft picks?

I probably sound mad, or something. I'm not, I'm genuinely curious if people really think they can find 1 or 2 type pitchers outside of round 1, and if so, shouldn't the Twins be embarrassed by their pitching if it is so easy to find? And, what happened to "their minor suck because they had late picks" argument? If you can find pitchers later, why haven't they?

Oh, and Gausman will be starting, successfully, in the majors while Mauer is still really good. Buxton might not even get here before Mauer declines.

[ThePuck]

yeah, I was pretty miffed when they took Buxton over Gausman or Zimmer, to be honest...especially Gausman

[Brad Swanson]

Ultimately, the only draft board that matters is the Twins'. If they have Buxton over Gausman or Frazier over Appel, that's how the draft will go.

My point would be, do you take the guaranteed 3rd starter at #4 or a potential superstar outfielder? I don't think it is safe to assume that any of the possible starters are certain to be better than that. Your own choice probably comes down to the level of risk you prefer.

[TRex]

I know it seems like a foreign concept to most of us Twins fans, but these prospects can be turned into 'great' starting pitchers, and it can be even faster than drafting them.

Buxton is already a top-10 prospect and if he has a fairly good year in low-A, don't you think he would be a great centerpiece for next years crop of 'soon to be too expensive' arbitration eligible pitchers (e.g. David Price/Gio Gonzalez/Zack Greinke/Matt Latos/CC Sabathia/?Matt Garza?).

Last offseason, Terry Ryan was said to be making a run at Johnny Cueto of the Reds, so we know he is capable of that type of thinking. And I think we have plenty of payroll room to accommodate these Arbitration Eligible guys, and can even afford to buy out their first year of FA eligibility.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Stanek not only dropped on my board, but has also dropped to the #3 spot in Arkansas's rotation. It is early, but still not what you'd want.

[sbknudson]

Ultimately, the only draft board that matters is the Twins'. If they have Buxton over Gausman or Frazier over Appel, that's how the draft will go.

My point would be, do you take the guaranteed 3rd starter at #4 or a potential superstar outfielder? I don't think it is safe to assume that any of the possible starters are certain to be better than that. Your own choice probably comes down to the level of risk you prefer.

Add in the fact that there is no "guaranteed" 3rd starter there - even with a college arm a pick could still go bust, or be lost to injury.

[gunnarthor]

Gausman and Zimmer are right next to Buxton in many of the prospect ranking lists, literally on one list right after him I believe. Buxtion also has questions, though. It's not like we are looking at a guy people thought of as harper or longoria.....he would not have even been a top 5-10 pick the previous year, from what I've read.

that's may question, though....how much better does the hitter have to be, if you already are "loaded" at the OF spot, and have no number 1 (or probably 2) pitchers in your entire system.

I think people have tried to answer that question. I didn't look at all lists again but I don't remember any list that had Gausman/Zimmer close to Buxton. So I guess, specifically, Buxton's upside was that of an all-star type (think Sizemore or Upton) center fielder. Gausman/Zimmer's upside was that of a #2 type pitcher. So that's how much better the hitter had to be.

I think the Twins have done a decent job of getting amateur talent in both the draft an international market in recent years. Finding a Verlander type pitcher is easier if you pick in the top 5 but there isn't a Verlander in this years group - or last years. Taking the best player - a guy BA thinks is the 10th best prospect in the game - is a good thing. Drafting for need is a horrible strategy for a baseball team.