Thread: Fangraphs Top 15 Prospects

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by cmb0252
Silly? I completely understand putting Sano over Buxton, or liking other Twins specs over him, or preferring specs who have proven themselves at higher levels, but this under valuing of Buxton has to stop. This dudes tools aren't comparable to Meyers or Arcia.

Most of the top spec analysts love Buxton so why don't Twins fans? People still upset they didn't take a college pitcher last year?
---

Nobody is undervaluing Buxton and nobody is saying he isn't the Twins #2 prospect...

Maybe it's simply that most of the professional or semi-professional outlets have writers with scouting experience who will incorporate the tools they can ostensibly see into player rankings, while most fans have to form their opinions based on what information is available to them, so they focus more on track record.

Originally Posted by whosafraidofluigirussolo

Maybe it's simply that most of the professional or semi-professional outlets have writers with scouting experience who will incorporate the tools they can ostensibly see into player rankings, while most fans have to form their opinions based on what information is available to them, so they focus more on track record.

One thing that you will consistently find is that the fresh batch of draftees are usually overranked in their first prospect list. I think the entire board (with a few exceptions) consider Buxton to be a top 25 MLB prospect. That is really high imo for someone with very limited pro experience.

Buxton hit an unimpressive .248 in Rookie League. They are looking at things we don't see.
Sano hit .258 last year, also underwhelming. Again, they are seeing things we aren't.

I'm not saying they are right about everything. Just that they are seeing a lot more than we are.
Even when we watch the same game.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

I like the question you raise. We always see top 10 or maybe top 20 lists for each team, but only done on a national level (and they suck--look at the Twins prospects list on MLB). I would really like to see how the top 30 lists around the league by local bloggers compare to Seth and company. There is something to be said for depth in the system as clearly those lower on lists can suddenly break through in a big way (Polanco, Vargas, Pinto, Herrmann, etc.).

All lists will be different. I take pride in my Twins minor league and prospect knowledge and I am comfortable with my prospect rankings, but for whatever reasons, I will rank people different than others. If you talk to different people, you hear different things. If you look at different stats, you may value them differently. IF you look at the same stats, you may value them differently. I am higher on guys like Danny Santana, Kenny Vargas and some other guys than other people. On some, I may be proven right. On others, I may be proven wrong. The lists are fun.

I'm not to worried about Sanos batting average, he had one of the top OPS seasons in recent history for a teen at that level.

Originally Posted by kab21

One thing that you will consistently find is that the fresh batch of draftees are usually overranked in their first prospect list. I think the entire board (with a few exceptions) consider Buxton to be a top 25 MLB prospect. That is really high imo for someone with very limited pro experience.

When you're the #2 overall pick in the draft, you better be a very, very highly ranked prospect!! Buxton absolutely should be in the Top 25, and I have no problem with Baseball America having him in their Top 10.

One thing to keep in mind about prospects, no matter their "ceiling" or their tools, is that it will take some time to see exactly how good they will turn out to be. Cuddyer took about 3 years into his major league career to finally "break out". Parmelee and Plouffe will get an opportunity to be regulars this year, but we really don't know how that will turn out. They may turn into big league backups, solid regulars, stars or they could even go down the Valencia path. I am pretty excited about the Twins minor league prospects, but a lot of that, for me, is that I think there is a lot of depth. Buxton and Sano could be stars, but even if they aren't, there a lot of good prospects in the system right now who could become good major leaguers.

Prospect Rankings should consider two things.

1. A player's upside- Here is where I would argue Buxton over Sano. Buxton has the potential to make an impact in way more areas of the game (Base-Running, Defense, Hitting) where as Sano's Tools are extreme power plus a very good arm. If one questions-Sano's ability to stay at 3rd where as expecting Buxton to remain in CF then the issue gets more complicated. I look at Sano as a Miggy/Stanton type potential hitter (Rare 80 Power). He's an awesome asset for the System. I look at Buxton's upside as higher (Andrew McCutchen/Matt Kemp). This seems to be the Baseball Prospectus/Fangraphs View.

2. The prospects ability to reach one's ceiling. I realize Sano is a safer bet here. This is why he's probably higher on most prospect boards. I remember being surprised when Keith Law said he would be hard pressed to see a case made for a prospect other then Sano. Buxton has a much greater risk of flaming out.

I would rank Buxton higher. I realize that one would need Brass Balls to do a trade of Sano's Probability for Buxton's potential. One could make a valid case either way. This seems to be a choice of scouting preference.