Thread: BaseballAmerica top 100 drops today

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

+1

I'm starting to get excited about Arcia. He seems to be trending in the right direction - a guy that everyone feels maybe they had overlooked and now are wondering why they missed him.

I know I'm in a minority here but he should be ranked higher than Buxton... and I think you can make a case for higher than Sano. He's produced and looks like a perennial allstar. He's more rounded than Sano and has much better results at much higher levels than Buxton.

It has Hicks as a 55 for speed???

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

I know I'm in a minority here but he should be ranked higher than Buxton... and I think you can make a case for higher than Sano. He's produced and looks like a perennial allstar. He's more rounded than Sano and has much better results at much higher levels than Buxton.

Someone could certainly make the case, but Prospect Rankings generally have very little to do with actual on-field production. It's about upside. Now, I think Arcia has All-Star upside, but Buxton and Sano's upside is higher.

Originally Posted by spycake

Exceedingly outside, I would think. Unless you are referring to a player yet to be drafted or acquired. Sano looks too one-dimensional so far to be ranked tops in baseball, and Buxton is still all athleticism and little performance.

But most of Baseball rates power-hitting very highly--much higher than the Twins organization. I concur with your assessment of Buxton--just not enough "body-of-work" to truly evaluate. I think "rankings" should be weight-adjusted for the level at which the performance was evaluated.

A few things I noticed from the list - there were only six 80 (the highest ranking) given out, and two are Twins prospects.

Gerrit Cole's (Pirates P) Fastball
Miguel Sano's Power
Byron Buxton's Speed
Billy Hamilton's (Reds of/ss) Speed
Bruce Rendon's (Tigers P) Fastball
Roman Quinn's (Phillies SS) Speed

Pretty cool that the only 80 for Power was Sano's.

Anybody else surprised that Sano got a 75 for his arm? I saw him last year when Beloit visited Cedar Rapids, he definetly has a cannon, but a 75? Higher than Buxton or Hicks?

Also, Sano was the only player with two separate ratings greater than 70.

Can't wait to go down to CR this summer. Great park, cheap tickets, cheap beer, players are accessible, I can't encourage people to make the trip enough!

Scratching my head, trying to figure out why my favorite,Eddie Rosario, got no love. ( ಥ_ಥ)

Originally Posted by grover738

Anybody else surprised that Sano got a 75 for his arm? I saw him last year when Beloit visited Cedar Rapids, he definetly has a cannon, but a 75? Higher than Buxton or Hicks?

Also, Sano was the only player with two separate ratings greater than 70.

Not at all surprised his arm got a 75. Not sure if that number is positional at all, but he has a rocket. So do Hicks and Buxton.

Nice showing by the Twins. I too believe Arcia should be higher. Next year the Twins should add 3 to the list IMO, while possibly graduating 3. Kepler, Berrios, Rosario, and their first pick of the draft all have a shot at getting in next season. Hicks, Arcia and Gibson might all have lost rookie status for 2014 too.

• aj (new york): who is a good comparison to oswaldo arcia and where do you see him starting the year?

John Manuel: We've always gotten Bob Abreu comps on his stance and swing. He lacks that patience and speed, but probably has more raw power. Few minor leaguers fit the RF profile as well as Arcia; love that guy's bat.

Also, from "Our Picks For Potential 2014 Top 100 Prospects":
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/...100-prospects/

John Manuel: To borrow a phrase from our College Top 25 rankings, Twins center fielder/second baseman Eddie Rosario may have suffered from some poll mechanics. I put 55/High grades on both Rosario and J.O. Berrios but ranked Berrios higher due to his greater importance to the Twins as a potential starting pitcher, and due in part to uncertainty over Rosario's future position. He may not stick at second base and might be a tweener as an outfielder—not the defense for center, not enough power for a corner. But I believe in the bat ultimately and think Rosario could wind up as a Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Markakis or David Murphy type, a corner outfielder who hits for high average, hits a lot of doubles, draws walks and is an above-average offensive player despite average home run power.

Originally Posted by John Manuel

But I believe in the bat ultimately and think Rosario could wind up as a Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Markakis or David Murphy type, a corner outfielder who hits for high average, hits a lot of doubles, draws walks and is an above-average offensive player despite average home run power.

Imagine, if that plays at 2nd base. Nice.

Originally Posted by righty8383

It has Hicks as a 55 for speed???

That surprised me as well.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Someone could certainly make the case, but Prospect Rankings generally have very little to do with actual on-field production. It's about upside. Now, I think Arcia has All-Star upside, but Buxton and Sano's upside is higher.

And this right here is the biggest problem with prospecting. Results matter, and ignoring them in favor of new guys from a historically weak draft seems foolish.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

And this right here is the biggest problem with prospecting. Results matter, and ignoring them in favor of new guys from a historically weak draft seems foolish.

But the problem is that you seem to imply that looking at boxscores is superior to the opinions of every expert and scout in the game.

Originally Posted by drjim

But the problem is that you seem to imply that looking at boxscores is superior to the opinions of every expert and scout in the game.

Not at all. Opinions on guys makes a huge difference. For example, we always heard Eric Lis had too slow of a swing to hit well in the upper levels. I'm not sure if that was 100%, but he isn't to be found now. He had pretty good results, and if the scouts were high on him he'd still be moving through the organization. So yes, stats aren't the end all be all way to grade prospects. However, they just can't be ignored as often as they are. A guy like Arcia that puts up monster number at a high level deserves to be rated higher than someone like Buxton that is only rated on tools. The bust factor is too high of a probability for young prospects. You can argue that Buxton has the "tools" to be a superstar, but it is much much more likely he becomes an average MLB player at this point. While the probability that Arcia becomes a good MLB player is pretty good. Rating guys like Buxton so high just sets them up for failure. Delmon Young is a perfect example of being over-rated. He should have never ever been rated as high as he was. The first time I watched him play I was dumbfounded scouts once salivated over his "tools."

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

Not at all. Opinions on guys makes a huge difference. For example, we always heard Eric Lis had too slow of a swing to hit well in the upper levels. I'm not sure if that was 100%, but he isn't to be found now. He had pretty good results, and if the scouts were high on him he'd still be moving through the organization. So yes, stats aren't the end all be all way to grade prospects. However, they just can't be ignored as often as they are. A guy like Arcia that puts up monster number at a high level deserves to be rated higher than someone like Buxton that is only rated on tools. The bust factor is too high of a probability for young prospects. You can argue that Buxton has the "tools" to be a superstar, but it is much much more likely he becomes an average MLB player at this point. While the probability that Arcia becomes a good MLB player is pretty good. Rating guys like Buxton so high just sets them up for failure. Delmon Young is a perfect example of being over-rated. He should have never ever been rated as high as he was. The first time I watched him play I was dumbfounded scouts once salivated over his "tools."

Young is also the exception and minor league ball had a nice article on why he failed. Mauer was the #7 prospect in baseball after 32 games in rookie ball - his tools were that good. Arcia performed well at AA and only 40 prospects in all of baseball have been rated higher. He's a good prospect. But his ceiling is still limited. BA did take into account his success which is why he is ranked ahead of superior tools guys like Addison Russell or our own Aaron Hicks. I don't think anyone is under appreciating him. I've pointed out before but the five professional ranking systems we fans have access to (BA, BP, Law, Sickels, Mayo) have him avg as the Twins 4th best prospect. All of them take into account results and tools. That ranking seems about right.

Let's put Arcia into some perspective. Here's a list of the non-up-the-middle defenders and non-pitching prospects (quick and dirty and lazy).

3 Oscar Taveras
4 Wil Myers
9 Miguel Sano
15 Christian Yelich
21 Nick Castellanos
22 Mike Olt
27 Jonathan Singleton
30 Anthony Rendon
34 Jorge Soler
41 Oswaldo Arcia

When comparing him to similarly tooled players, we see he's ranked tenth. Maybe we can make some quibbles here and there, but really Arcia's ranking isn't exactly the underestimate some people believe.

Good point. I am very comfortable with where they have Arcia. I'm really high on him, but I don't know that he should be any higher than he is.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Let's put Arcia into some perspective. Here's a list of the non-up-the-middle defenders and non-pitching prospects (quick and dirty and lazy).

3 Oscar Taveras
4 Wil Myers
9 Miguel Sano
15 Christian Yelich
21 Nick Castellanos
22 Mike Olt
27 Jonathan Singleton
30 Anthony Rendon
34 Jorge Soler
41 Oswaldo Arcia

When comparing him to similarly tooled players, we see he's ranked tenth. Maybe we can make some quibbles here and there, but really Arcia's ranking isn't exactly the underestimate some people believe.

That's a pretty good point.

Was going to like that post but that doesn't seem to be possible. What happened to the like button?

Arcia's bat is not without flaws either. He ks more than you would like and has some struggles with lefties (unsurprisingly). His bat is ahead of Buxton right now but Buxton has a legit shot to close that gap. Plus, while Arcia is a decent athlete and legit rf profile, his speed, arm, and overall defense are not in the same league as Buxton. This is a significant factor in prospect rankings as well.