Thread: Article: Scouting with Sean Johnson

Originally Posted by Blackjack

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

You're talking about the Bryce Harper that made the cover of ESPN at age 17, left high school early so he could play with a wooden bat, and went as the #1 overall pick for a record amount of money? You mean that Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

What. The. ****?

The Twins could have moved him to Venezuela as a 14 year old, put him in blackface, taught him a few words in Spanish, and then signed him as an international free agent.

Another classic example of this franchise's inability to think outside the box.

Originally Posted by Blackjack

The questions I would have liked to have seen is: How does a player like Bryce Harper fall so far in the draft and then become a superstar?? How come so many teams, including the Twins, passed on him?

Must mean Mike Trout.....

Originally Posted by maxisagod

Must mean Mike Trout.....

My guess is Tom Brady.

I'm most disappointed that the Twins failed to sign Zach Parise.

Originally Posted by maxisagod

Must mean Mike Trout.....

Screwed that one up didn't I??!! SI had a good article on him awhile back, how 24 other teams passed on him, now the Angels have a budding superstar. Goes to show how much of a crap shoot the draft really is.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'm most disappointed that the Twins failed to sign Zach Parise.

I hear they've really made it clear they are "very interested" in signing Diana Taurasi, though.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

I hear they've really made it clear they are "very interested" in signing Diana Taurasi, though.

It'll all boil down to dollars and years.

If my memory serves me, Trout's senior year was limited by a lot of rain and guys had a hard time seeing him play. The scout that signed him had a connection to Trout's dad, so he was on him more than others. Trout would have been a guy that Twins would have been high on - toolsy, but that was also the year Gibson fell into the Twins laps. It's hard to blame them when they got a guy that was considered a top-5 talent just weeks before the draft.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Glad to hear the truth from an insider.

Self-deprecating irony or accidentally walking into that joke?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

It'll all boil down to dollars and years.

And how lax the Minnesota DUI laws might be.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

It'll all boil down to dollars and years.

She has to want to come to MN. Sometimes you just can't give away your money.

Thanks for the article, good stuff on the draft. I especially appreciated the section where he compared their strategy to Houston and Toronto. I was happy to hear they at least considered different strategies on how to spread the money around. I still think Buxton was the right call and like some of the other picks as well.

As far as Ryan's role is concerned, I remember an interview from a couple of months ago where he answered a couple of questions on the draft and basically said he knows enough to be dangerous, that he might see a guy once or twice and makes a point not to have that shape his opinion or to try and influence the decisions that are made. It makes sense he would be in the room but I have doubts he does much in terms of making decisions. But the ultimate responsibility of draft performance rests with him.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

I'm confident that someone like Terry Ryan is very sensitive to the fact that with his scouting background it would be very easy to be seen as running roughshod over the guys actually doing the work now - careful not to start too many comments with "well, back when *I* was scouting...". On the other hand, I still find it difficult to accept that there is no difference ("regardless of who"), in how draft day plays out when a Bill Smith is in the big chair versus when Terry Ryan is - Smith will certainly defer to exactly whatever his chief of scouting recommends, Ryan would by contrast... what? The discussion as the rankings are constructed the day before the draft would have to be colored in some way by his take on how to synthesize all the information into a strong and cohesive draft for that year, and as draft day itself unfolds I could imagine a glance across the room to Ryan, where even a shrug of the shoulders saying "use your judgement" means more than not even looking in Smith's direction to make each call.

I think this is an interesting idea, but I would still think that the synthesizing of information into a strong and cohesive draft is the role of the scouting director. Ryan is most likely there to observe, make sure that the process is acceptable, and possibly to bounce ideas off. I would be surprised if he does much to help formulate the strategy for the draft since he would have such minimal observation of players.

The example that Sean used about TR helping was that he'd help take the tags off the board when guys are selected. So we're talking minimal involvement. The draft is a big deal and GMs are interested, he said its likely the same in every baseball city in America. The draft room is across from St. Peter's office and near Ryan's so a lot of guys will drop in, though the decisions are in the hands of few.

Originally Posted by drjim

I would be surprised if he does much to help formulate the strategy for the draft since he would have such minimal observation of players.

A lot of people prefer to draft the best available player in the first round (particularly a high pick) rather than draft for need, but after that first pick or two you can draft for need without too much compromise. If the GM feels the system overall is short on pitching, he will want the strategy to address that in the early to middle rounds. Maybe this will be obvious to the scouting director as well, but I would expect the GM would make sure everyone is one the same (namely, HIS) page on this. I think that's what we saw with the Twins in 2012. Maybe I'm a little too fanciful in guessing about body language from the big guy on draft day; I was drawing a contrast to the Bill Smith years when I would bet he had zero impact on the dynamics of draft day itself. The scouting team admires and trusts Terry Ryan and vice versa, and I can't help believing it matters on draft day.

That seems good in theory, but BPA gets pretty hazy once pretty quick. Sickles graded Gausman at an A- with Buxton at a B+. Given that, I'd say Gausman was the BPA but he was skipped. My concern with this idea is that BPA is often fluid. I'm not convinced Buxton was the BPA, and he certainly was not what the Twins needed. The Twins didn't pass up Steven Strasburg or Bryce Harper to pick Buxton, but they did pass some very good options. They passed up several pitchers with a 1/2 ceiling that could have helped them in 2014 in favor of a very raw OF with a high ceiling that won't be helping any time soon.

Need has to be considered, espeically given the fact that after the first round, your likelihood of finding that special player that fills the need drops too.

I don't know what you guys are talking about. The Twins are completely clueless. Hell, they don't even own laptops.

Great article, Jeremy! I love the incite into the scouting by professional sports teams.

Does anyone else think it's crazy that the scouts only "turn in 900" guys when 1500 guys are drafted? That's 40% of the draft! Did they see those guys and just didn't like them so they don't waste time ranking them for their room? Or are there players they never see?

While sickles graded gausman higher law, mayo, and BA graded Buxton higher. Does this mean sickles was wrong? Of Course not. Only time will tell.

Everyone, especially the front office, knows we need pitching NOW. Everyone, especially the front office again, knows we have outfield depth on all levels from low A to the bigs. Even knowing the depth the front office still takes a toolsy HS outfielder over a college arm. What does that tell you about how they, not sickles or law or mayo or BA, sees Buxton?

The twins spent a ton of time/money scouting and in the end Buxton was the guy. I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm not sure why so many of you aren't.