Thread: KLAW's top 100 list is out.

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard

I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

Play second, bat second.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I've never said Oswaldo was the better prospect. I said pre-injury Kubel was a good comp and thought "Jason Kubel Light" was not an accurate comparison. That's how I entered this argument.

And again, when Kubel was higher up in the Twins farm, the system was mediocre. He wasn't competing in a system that had Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Gibson, et al in it. Once Mauer and Morneau cleared the Major League roster, Kubel was the only decent guy left standing. His competition for "top 10 prospect" status was... not fierce.

OK, I can agree with your semantics in regards to "Jason Kubel Light." Mine was explained right before I threw that name out: "was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet."

The main thing is I don't see Arcia reaching Kubel's pre-injury peak, which is going to be decided this year, in the same leagues, at the same age.

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

Sorry, I apologize by doing this for us all:

You hit the Rosario comp right on the head of the nail.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

Which is why I said "when Kubel was higher up in the system". Nearly everyone on that list worth mentioning (minus Garza and Liriano) was promoted well before Kubel hit the bigs. Span wasn't a top prospect until... Well, ever, really. He proved his worth in the bigs and became a good player there. Bartlett was... Well, Bartlett. A decent player but not the type of prospect who couldn't be ignored (as evidenced by the team's quite extensive attempts to ignore him).

Originally Posted by whosafraidofluigirussolo

I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?

As a guy who gets Insider for Law & Karabell I can paraphrase...He was the best pitcher in AZ fall league this year with a fastball sitting 92-94 he can contol down in the zone, a very good slider that works against rightys and leftys, and a solid change. Thinks there's a good chance he's the Twins' best pitcher by the end of the year (innings limits aside ). I also remember him saying on a podcast this fall that he's throwing as hard as he ever did, ditched the curve, and has a much better slider post surgery.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Bartlett was... Well, Bartlett. A decent player but not the type of prospect who couldn't be ignored (as evidenced by the team's quite extensive attempts to ignore him).

I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them!

My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

And by the time Kubel became an actual on-the-radar "prospect" (after the breakout 2004 season), Mauer has already started his first season in the bigs and blown out his knee. Morneau also saw half a season in the bigs in 2004, so by the time 2005 rolled around he was off the "prospect" list. Mauer was still only a "prospect" in the sense that he didn't play enough games in 2004 before he got hurt, and rolled over into 2005 as the #1 prospect in the game.

So when you say he was the "best hitter" on a lot of those lists, only the ones from 2005 on would count, and he was competing primarily with the likes of pre-figuring-it-out Span and Cuddyer. The Twins weren't exactly loaded with impact hitters once Mauer and Morneau "graduated" after 2004, unless you were high on the likes of Michael Restovich and Terry Tiffee.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.

The reason I had Kubel as the better prospect in comparison was because scouts (at least BAmerica) had him as a top 20 prospect (#17). Statistically Arcia looks slightly better, but Kubel mashed AAA at 22 leading up to that ranking. Arcia could also do so (this will be his 22 year old season), but we'll have to wait. Interesting enough though, both had their worst minor league seasons at Ft. Myers (.760s OPS) by a significant margin. Giving more proof that it's tough for batters.

"In fact, I'd say Rosario is probably a 1-2 tool player, but the rest of his tools are near in line with league average which makes him a very good prospect."

He has a credible margin in every department. He has potential in all 5 categories.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them!

My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

Where are these people you speak of?

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Your post was funny and I loved it! The Florida, old people connection simply genius!

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Where are these people you speak of?

On this board, one imagined friend will do. Bartlett was viewed as a good shortstop that was traded away. That value solidified after he had a couple good seasons after he left. I don't ever recall anyone fawning over him as a minor leaguer. They people also forget he only had two good seasons once he left.

Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard

I'm pretty sure my head is going to explode.

Comparisons are rarely great. The Kubel/Arcia comp not great either, but workable - lots of value tied into the bat, serviceable fielder (pre-injury for Kubes).

As for Rosario, he's very much like Span. He gets the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He'll have a ton of doubles and hit for a high average. While Span is more of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I think Rosario fits better in the 2-hole ESPECIALLY IF HE STAYS AT 2B!

This comp isn't very good. I think my Kubel/Arcia one is better. Span's minor league history is pretty unimpressive and he never produced anything close to what Rosario has. Eddie will have much more power than Denard and I'm not just saying that because of how I gushed about it earlier. The slugging differences are above .100. Span hit 1 HR in Beloit and prior and Rosario has 39 in that span (pun was intended). Rosario is a much better prospect than Span ever was.

Originally Posted by The Wise One

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

I may not have a thesaurus in front of me, but as it seems, "wise" and "witty" are not synonyms.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

This comp isn't very good. I think my Kubel/Arcia one is better. Span's minor league history is pretty unimpressive and he never produced anything close to what Rosario has. Eddie will have much more power than Denard and I'm not just saying that because of how I gushed about it earlier. The slugging differences are above .100. Span hit 1 HR in Beloit and prior and Rosario has 39 in that span (pun was intended). Rosario is a much better prospect than Span ever was.

Statistic-wise, you are right. But the "statistical-scouting vs observational-scouting" debate will never end.

Watching Rosario swing a bat, he looks a lot like DSpan.

Originally Posted by The Wise One

Now I understand the "funny "stuff depository. Saying FroddadyG comment is genius in terms of funny is more of a strech than size 0 spandex on Kirstie Alley.

kelso-burn.jpg

Originally Posted by whosafraidofluigirussolo

I respect the reasons for the paywall system and don't want to circumvent it completely, but since Law seems so high on Gibson, I'd be curious to read any blurbs from his write-up...any choice excerpts?

If this is not allowed on this site, please let me know and I can remove...Checked the FAQs and saw nothing about not pasting pay site info.

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

Originally Posted by 3rd Inning Stretch

If this is not allowed on this site, please let me know and I can remove...Checked the FAQs and saw nothing about not pasting pay site info.

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

I'm by no means a voice of authority for the site, but this won't fly.

Originally Posted by 3rd Inning Stretch

edit by Brock: Yep, pay info is a no-go on TD.

Fascists!

sorry, as I said wasnt aware, and its not in the FAQ