Thread: Twins update thier prospects list

The Twins have finally updated their top 20 prospects list on the minor league affiliates site. In my opinion this list is much more accaptable compared to the last one that had Adrian Salcedo(7) and Angel Morales(10) too high and Kyle Gibson(15) and Max Kepler(18) too low.

This list still has Morales, who isn't even a prospect anymore if you ask me, too high at #12, and Max Kepler, who could appear in some notable top 100 lists in the near future too low at #20.

Aside from these two I am OK with the list. It also includes recent aquisitions Alex Myer(3), Trevor May(5) and rule 5 pick Ryan Pressly(17).

It's a fairly terrible list. It's a joke to have Hermsen that high and it is a joke to have Kepler that low. Morales and Pressly don't belong at all either. Boer and Boyd scare me.

This is my top 20 (I am going to provide justification in subsequent blog posts):

1. Miguel Sano
2. Aaron Hicks
3. Oswaldo Arcia
4. Byron Buxton
5. Alex Meyer
6. Eddie Rosario
7. Jose Berrios
8. Kyle Gibson
9. Max Kepler
10. Trevor May
11. Joe Benson
12. Travis Harrison
13. Chris Herrmann
14. Nate Roberts
15. Adam Walker
16. Kennys Vargas
17. Niko Goodrum
18. Adrian Salcedo
19. Hudson Boyd
20. Matt Hauser

Ok, so I guess what I should have said was, strictly compared to the previous list, it is somewhat respectable. Otherwise it is still very flawed.

It's better, but they simply added players and gave no consideration to anything relevant like statistics and whatnot. I like Angel Morales and wouldn't write him off yet (younger than Hicks and dealing with injury--due for bounceback in NBR), but it is dumb to have him so high. Kepler's low ranking is strange.

I don't have a huge problem with the list. We have two top guys - Sano and Buxton - and then six guys that can be arranged in varying orders without much problem. I think we Twins fans overrate Arcia (although I hope I'm wrong and he's a preeminent bat) and under value May, who might have some command/control issues but has four pitches and is durable.

That said, are we certain this is the 2013 list? I know Mayo changed the lists around at the time of the trades to reflect who has moved into the org but I'm not sure this is a finalized list.

This list looks like it was put together by the marketing department... That's why Pressley is on it at all, and why May and Meyer are so high. Arcia has no business at 7 and Buxton has no business at 2.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

This list looks like it was put together by the marketing department... That's why Pressley is on it at all, and why May and Meyer are so high. Arcia has no business at 7 and Buxton has no business at 2.

False. Unless you think Buxton should be 1.

Arcia at 7 is low but not outrageous depending on what you choose to emphasize.

This is still the list from last season I believe just with the new players added. I don't think Jonathan Mayo has made the 2013 list which I am sure will be more accurate to what the above posts have said. Also I am just curious, do you think that the 2013 list will include Amaurys Minier? He is ranked 4th on international prospects currently but I guess I don't know how that will translate to our list.

Originally Posted by drjim

False. Unless you think Buxton should be 1.

Arcia at 7 is low but not outrageous depending on what you choose to emphasize.

He should be below Sano and Arcia for certain and given results, you can make a case for Hicks, Rosario, and Meyer.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

He should be below Sano and Arcia for certain and given results, you can make a case for Hicks, Rosario, and Meyer.

Fine for you to think so, but that would be contrary to every expert prospect analyst in baseball.

Sano and Buxton are definitely the consensus top two... I do want to clarify one thing... The title of this indicates that the Twins made this list. It's on the Twins website, but as others here have pointed out, this is Jonathan Mayo's list.

Buxton should not be guaranteed the second spot on the Twins' prospect list. Tools have to move to skills. If he does it in a full season at age 19, then certainly he is right behind Sano. But Hicks and Arcia have advanced with some prowess over multiple seasons in the minor leagues. They are on the cusp and Buxton hasn't played a full season.

So you are saying that you would trade Buxton for some other team's Oswaldo Arcia? My thought is that 'prospecting' is all about trying to project future success, but what you are doing is more like grading their performance... which may or may not be a predictor of future success. It's not like Buxton had a bad statistical year, and he was voted Best Prospect by managers in TWO separate leagues. What exactly would he need to do warrant a spot in your top 5?

Originally Posted by TRex

So you are saying that you would trade Buxton for some other team's Oswaldo Arcia? My thought is that 'prospecting' is all about trying to project future success, but what you are doing is more like grading their performance... which may or may not be a predictor of future success. It's not like Buxton had a bad statistical year, and he was voted Best Prospect by managers in TWO separate leagues. What exactly would he need to do warrant a spot in your top 5?

To answer your first question, yes I would (and to be honest, I was hoping they would have drafted Gausman). Arcia has all the tools as well. The difference is that he's much more of a sure thing at this point. He's looking more and more like a middle order bat who can play average or better defense in the corner. Buxton can certainly get there, but the odds of failure are much higher... I'd also note that Buxton didn't have a good statistical year either. Arcia had a great one facing AA pitching.

To warrant a top 5 in my opinion is to have the tools and the performance. Discounting one over the other is not wise.

I was very disappointed Nate Roberts was not on the Twins' top 20 list. Is it his defense? I saw him (on TV) in the AFL championship, and he's got some real speed – he's starting to steal some bases. He hits around .300, his OBP is .433 and he scored 60 runs in 76 games. I suspect he was kept in Beloit last year because the team had a lot of OF talent in AA and AAA, some of which will move up now that Span and Revere have been traded. Hopefully he'll start 2013 in AA. I see a real future for this kid.

Does anyone else find it weird that of the 11 pitchers on the Twins' list of top 20 prospects, only one is left-handed? Corey Williams. Of the 22 pitchers on the 40-man roster, six are lefties (a pretty normal split, I would think).

Just food for thought.

Another oddity: Of the 18 non-pitchers on the Twins' 40-man roster, how many throw left-handed? Only one: Chris Parmelee. (Several bat left handed, but throw right-handed.)

Originally Posted by lee_the_twins_fan

I was very disappointed Nate Roberts was not on the Twins' top 20 list. Is it his defense? I saw him (on TV) in the AFL championship, and he's got some real speed – he's starting to steal some bases. He hits around .300, his OBP is .433 and he scored 60 runs in 76 games. I suspect he was kept in Beloit last year because the team had a lot of OF talent in AA and AAA, some of which will move up now that Span and Revere have been traded. Hopefully he'll start 2013 in AA. I see a real future for this kid.

This is really not the list that the Twins actually have. I wouldn't worry about Roberts right now. He will end the season at AA, hopefully with 50/50 split or more (in AA).

I would indeed trade Buxton for someone else's Arcia, by the way. That might not be true in all cases, but certainly with Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, etc. in the organization already. I like guys who have advanced further in the system and have been pretty dominant. Buxton has yet to be dominant at rookie ball. 2013 could change all of that, certainly.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

To answer your first question, yes I would (and to be honest, I was hoping they would have drafted Gausman). Arcia has all the tools as well. The difference is that he's much more of a sure thing at this point. He's looking more and more like a middle order bat who can play average or better defense in the corner. Buxton can certainly get there, but the odds of failure are much higher... I'd also note that Buxton didn't have a good statistical year either. Arcia had a great one facing AA pitching.

To warrant a top 5 in my opinion is to have the tools and the performance. Discounting one over the other is not wise.

Arcia doesn't really have all of Buxton's tools. His most common comp is Jason Kubel. He might be a bit better defender in right but he doesn't have Buxton's speed, range or defensive abilities. He might hit and have more power, or he might not. Buxton's comps were guys like Sizemore and Upton, better all around players.

TRex is right that prospect ranking is more than just ranking performance, it's gauging future ML-success. Arcia is a nice prospect but I think he's getting vastly overrated by Twins fans. Buxton, Sano and arguably even Hicks all have tools that are superior and should make them the better prospects.