Thread: Where does the Twins Farm System Rank?

There was a discussion on either 1500 AM or 100.3 FM today, and the guys on there thought that we had jumped into the Top 5 with the new additions. I definately have to agree, and when Sano jumps up a few levels over the next few years, we will probably have a system in the Top 3.

Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

Originally Posted by kab21

Systems up for top 5 consideration: Pirates, DBacks, Royals (thinned out a little), Twins, Rangers, Mariners and Cardinals. Some others that aren't far behind: Rays, Jays, Marlins, Reds, Cubs (very thin after the top 3 though) and Red Sox.

This was just a quick listing. I'm sure that I missed a deserving team or two. Overall I really liked the Twins system before the two trades regardless of pitching/hitting balance. Obviously I like the system a lot more now.

6. Twins
5. Jays- They dealt Marisnick and Nic to the Marlins, but still have Sanchez and Syndergaard. Also have D'Arnaud and a lot of HS talent that will b developing this year
4. Rays- 6 of their top 10 are Pitchers. Guerrieri has potential to be an ace . The rest of their system is built up with pitchers/young hitters.
3. Diamondbacks- They have 3 ACES in Skaggs/Bauer/Bradley with Skaggs being the best, but the rest of their system is weak.
2. Rangers- The System speaks for itself. Profar,Olt, Perez, and a seemingly endless supply of top Latin American talent. I was considering putting them at 1, but their younger talent is about ready to play their first Full league season this year, after this year when Walker and Zunino make their Debut's, the Rangers will be #1. Texas lacks a real ace in their system as well, although Perez will be a good 2.
1. Mariners- Walker is an Ace, Paxton and Hultzen will top out at #2's (which is very hard to find these days), Zunino is a a star behind the plate and his bat backs that up. Maurer is regarded very highly in their system after his breakout year.

Seems like most of the systems that you rated in front of the Twins have more weaknesses than the Twins' system. Your assessment of the Blue Jays assumes that their high school talent will transfer well to the bigs. The Rays I agree with. I would put both the Twins and the Rays in front of the Diamondbacks if they only have three highly regarded prospects in their system. The Rangers do have a strong farm system, but the Mariners at #1? Wow. With the teams you have ranked in front of the Twins, I would actually put the Twins in the Top 3 on this list behind the Rays and Rangers.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

I was assuming that Arcia would be up too.

Anyway, a lot depends on Berrios and Kepler, then on people who we don't really know a lot about like Bard.

And again, if Rosario stays at second base that keeps him very high on the list.

If Rosario can't stay at 2nd, I don't think it's a huge deal to his prospect ranking. Many have said so, but I don't buy it. The next position for him would be CF which, like we've seen with Revere and Span, is considered a very valuable position across the league (WAR-wise also). I've actually reconsidered my rankings earlier and would put him at #4 in front of Arcia. He's shown to have just as much power as Arcia (perhaps a little more) in addition to speed and great contact skills. Rosario doesn't have a problem with strikeouts and isn't too bad at drawing walks. Looks like he has a good arm as well. He had 6 assists from Center in a shortened rookie ball season back in 2011. I think he could realistically be a 5 tool CF. That's not bad as a 2nd choice.

Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan

Seems like most of the systems that you rated in front of the Twins have more weaknesses than the Twins' system. Your assessment of the Blue Jays assumes that their high school talent will transfer well to the bigs. The Rays I agree with. I would put both the Twins and the Rays in front of the Diamondbacks if they only have three highly regarded prospects in their system. The Rangers do have a strong farm system, but the Mariners at #1? Wow. With the teams you have ranked in front of the Twins, I would actually put the Twins in the Top 3 on this list behind the Rays and Rangers.

I thought it was pretty harsh too. The Diamondbacks are #3 just because they have 3 aces? Well the Twins have an Ace, Two #2s, A Slugging Phenom, 2 Five Tool Center Fielders, A fantastic pure hitter, and a top 5 middle infield prospect. They also have the best rookie ball team in the Appy league, a solid International scouting department (Sano, Polanco, Minier, Arcia, etc.), and have been improving draft-wise. I think that tops the Diamondbacks, Jays, and the questionable #1 Mariners. Don't want to come off as mean-spirited, I just really disagreed with jtrinaldi's opinion.

The Diamondbacks and Mariners might be top heavy but I'm not sure if I would call them weak after their top 3-4. And they don't just have a good top 3-4, they have 3-4 A/A- prospects. I think I would put the DBacks, Mariners and Rangers ahead of the Twins.

The Rays and Jays imo don't have the top prospects and the rest of the prospects are full of question marks or at the lowest levels. I think they are below the Twins. I also think the Cards and maybe the Pirates could be ranked above the Twins.

I think next year the Twins system will be ranked a lot higher. But right now, we have a bunch of guys in the 20-80 range but probably not anyone above that. A great year from a few of those players could change that and I think next years rankings, even with Hicks and Gibson coming off, will be better overall. But a year from now we could realistically be looking at Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Meyer, Rosario, Kepler and the #4 pick all being in the top 100 with potential break out seasons from Meyer and Sano (and maybe Appel) pushing them into the top 20. (And they might make a midseason trade of Morneau and WIllingham for another pitching prospet). And they'd still have nice depth with May, Berrios, Polanco and Harrison. I think the team has done a great job rebuilding the farm system. Top 3 or top 8, the FO is building a nice nucleus for the Sano Twins.

um, I believe the San Diego Padres have the highest ranked farm system

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan

Seems like most of the systems that you rated in front of the Twins have more weaknesses than the Twins' system. Your assessment of the Blue Jays assumes that their high school talent will transfer well to the bigs. The Rays I agree with. I would put both the Twins and the Rays in front of the Diamondbacks if they only have three highly regarded prospects in their system. The Rangers do have a strong farm system, but the Mariners at #1? Wow. With the teams you have ranked in front of the Twins, I would actually put the Twins in the Top 3 on this list behind the Rays and Rangers.

I thought it was pretty harsh too. The Diamondbacks are #3 just because they have 3 aces? Well the Twins have an Ace, Two #2s, A Slugging Phenom, 2 Five Tool Center Fielders, A fantastic pure hitter, and a top 5 middle infield prospect. They also have the best rookie ball team in the Appy league, a solid International scouting department (Sano, Polanco, Minier, Arcia, etc.), and have been improving draft-wise. I think that tops the Diamondbacks, Jays, and the questionable #1 Mariners. Don't want to come off as mean-spirited, I just really disagreed with jtrinaldi's opinion.

The Twins do not have a current ACE in their system.
Gibson is a 2, Meyer and May are fringe 3's, and Berrios is likely a 3. Thus you have no ACE. The D-Backs and Mariners do have the best farm system, which will be depleted after this year when they all make their debut's. The Twins haven't develo[ed an ACE in such a long time, that fans forget how hard it is to develop one ACE, much less 2 or 3. The M's also have Zunino who is being compared to Jason Varitek, and other star Catchers. The core players of my Jays assessment are Sanchez,Syndergaard, D'Arnaud. I am probably overrating the Jays, Norris' Velocity has dropped a bunch since HS and last year (4MPH on his fastball that used to hit 96) .the Pirates should be #5. Lots of young Dominicans coming up, with 2 sure fire aces. I stand pat with 1-4, Should be Pirates 5,Twins 6.

The only Aces in the MILB right now are
Bundy
Skaggs
Bauer
Bradley
Taillon
Cole
T.Walker
Aaron Sanchez
Potentially Hultzen
TBD this year : Guerreri,Fried,Snell

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

I like our system but we don't have a top 20 type prospect (yet). We have a lot of guys in the 20-80 range but no certain elite prospect. I think Sano and Buxton could get there but they aren't there yet. I think 1-10, we're probably good as anyone but a few teams probably have a better 1-5 or so. I think we're probably a top 8 system but I don't know if we're much higher than that.

On the plus side, next year, despite losing Hicks and Gibson, we'll be adding the #4 pick and hopefully we'll have great years out of Meyer and May to see them shoot up the rankings.

I agree with you, gunarthur. The chinks in the armour are the paucity of truly elite prospects, the lack of more than one pitching prospect regarded as having ace potential, and an average (at best) pipeline of international signees. The first two flaws are a function of draft order and nothing else. Each draft produces fewer than ten future superstars, I'm guessing, and most of those are picked in the first ten picks or so. The criticism about the Twin's scouting and drafting skills are completely unfounded. The team has more recently beefed up its investment in international scouting, but it's too early to see big results. That said, it's to their credit that they have a top quartile pipeline despite having had only one top ten draft pick in the past half-dozen years or so.

How is the criticism unfounded, if they have not produced even average players at many positions the last decade? Where are the 3B, SS, 2B, starting pitchers? How about a catcher that can even be a backup? Or a DH that can be average? I don't expect miracles, or superstars every year or every 3-5 years, but I do expect, that if you refuse to spend money on FA, that you have to draft better than other teams. Or, you need to be willing to sign legit FAs, or both.

Again, this is one man's opinion, but from KLaw's chat this week:

"I think they'll end up with at least 7 guys (in his top 100). Rosario was on it last year, Gibson was on before he got hurt but he's actually better now with the new slider."

His preseson had Sano (28), Rosario (50), May (76), Hicks (80) and Arcia (85). His midseason added Buxton at 18 and moved Sano and Rosario to 26 and 39. His comments on Gibson will put him up there and I think Meyer has a shot also, although I think May might fall from the top 100. I counted 17 who will no longer be eligible for his list (maybe more). I have to think Kepler may even have a chance. I'd say they have a decent chance to be top 5 for KLaw. The Padres had 6 last year on his preseason to 100 and Grandal and Alonso are no longer prospects (eligible for ROY).

Where does Wimmers rank on our list?

I am not arguing the system is not good now (before the trades, nearly completely at the lower levels). I am arguing that saying that last 10 years is acceptable is not something I agree with.

I think Wimmers comes back in 2014 as a 3/4 or so, maybe a 3. That would be a good pick, but that's an optimistic scenario, but possible.

Originally Posted by Brandon

Where does Wimmers rank on our list?

Probably in the 15-20 range with a chance to move up once he is healthy and pitching well.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

How is the criticism unfounded, if they have not produced even average players at many positions the last decade? Where are the 3B, SS, 2B, starting pitchers? How about a catcher that can even be a backup? Or a DH that can be average? I don't expect miracles, or superstars every year or every 3-5 years, but I do expect, that if you refuse to spend money on FA, that you have to draft better than other teams. Or, you need to be willing to sign legit FAs, or both.

I'm talking about the criticism that the Twins are horrible at drafting and scouting and development, mike. I can't prove it, but I will submit to you that, if the Twins had the luxury of the favorable draft order of teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, they'd have an ace in the pipeline and fewer holes to fill. So, while I can't answer why you haven't seen a player at a given position that meets your standards, I believe that it's attributable to the draft order maybe even luck, much more than some skill deficiency in their drafting and development. Otherwise, how do you explain their many successes like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel? My explanation for their "luck" with those players is simple. Good draft order, competent talent evaluation, and proper development. Just like most other major league franchise. This notion that they should be better at it is so incredibly unrealistic. What do you want them to do? Corner the market on capable scouting personnel?

And your FA complaints are irrelevant to the discussion about the quality of the farm system, mike.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

How is the criticism unfounded, if they have not produced even average players at many positions the last decade? Where are the 3B, SS, 2B, starting pitchers? How about a catcher that can even be a backup? Or a DH that can be average? I don't expect miracles, or superstars every year or every 3-5 years, but I do expect, that if you refuse to spend money on FA, that you have to draft better than other teams. Or, you need to be willing to sign legit FAs, or both.

We argue this so much it's probably fruitless at this point. But the Twins had a pretty solid decade before 11 where the minor league system kept restocking the ML team. Heck, the Twins completely changed team nucleus without much of a beat. Teams can't stay on top forever, unless it's the Yanks. It's cyclical. Drafting late and having ownership limit going over slot affected the drafts. But, generally, the Twins have drafted pretty well, even if it takes a bit longer for some to make it to the majors.

Gibson, 09, should make his debut this year. Dozier already has. Bullock from that draft was traded for Diamond. Hicks, 08, should debut this year. Revere was 07, was solid and traded for Worley and a prospect. 06 draft hasn't really helped yet. Lots of players from that draft have made the majors but none have, yet, really broken out. Parmelee and Benson will both get shots this season. We'll see.

But if you really are looking at the last decade as you say, as opposed to the last two years as you seem to mean, the Twins have developed a lot of talent. All of the players debuted in the last decade and have had at least one decent year:
C - Mauer, Ramos
1B - Morneau, Parmelee
2B - ugh, Casilla
SS - Bartlett
3B - Plouffe, Valencia
OF - Gomez, Ford, Keilty, Mohr, Span, Revere, Kubel
SP - Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey, Duensing, Garza, Baker, Boof, Diamond,
RP - Mijares, Neshek, Crain, Guerrier, Perkins, Swarzak

And that also doesn't count trades of prospects for guys like Cabrera and Castillo. And it's not counting replacement level guys like Morales, Butera, Tolbert.

Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

The Twins do not have a current ACE in their system.
Gibson is a 2, Meyer and May are fringe 3's, and Berrios is likely a 3. Thus you have no ACE.

Meyer & May are fringe 3's?!? Really? Man, you must have absolutely hated these last two trades.

I'm not saying that ranking the Twins system 6 is some grave insult (I can argue for a couple places higher), but I would certainly value Meyer & May higher. These aren't 18 year-old rookie ball guys with no track record putting up numbers against garbage competition. Both are on the fast track to the majors with Meyer clearly having the stuff to be a frontline starter. May isn't as advanced, but grades out as a potential 2-3 starter.

Originally Posted by jtrinaldi

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan

Seems like most of the systems that you rated in front of the Twins have more weaknesses than the Twins' system. Your assessment of the Blue Jays assumes that their high school talent will transfer well to the bigs. The Rays I agree with. I would put both the Twins and the Rays in front of the Diamondbacks if they only have three highly regarded prospects in their system. The Rangers do have a strong farm system, but the Mariners at #1? Wow. With the teams you have ranked in front of the Twins, I would actually put the Twins in the Top 3 on this list behind the Rays and Rangers.

I thought it was pretty harsh too. The Diamondbacks are #3 just because they have 3 aces? Well the Twins have an Ace, Two #2s, A Slugging Phenom, 2 Five Tool Center Fielders, A fantastic pure hitter, and a top 5 middle infield prospect. They also have the best rookie ball team in the Appy league, a solid International scouting department (Sano, Polanco, Minier, Arcia, etc.), and have been improving draft-wise. I think that tops the Diamondbacks, Jays, and the questionable #1 Mariners. Don't want to come off as mean-spirited, I just really disagreed with jtrinaldi's opinion.

The Twins do not have a current ACE in their system.
Gibson is a 2, Meyer and May are fringe 3's, and Berrios is likely a 3. Thus you have no ACE. The D-Backs and Mariners do have the best farm system, which will be depleted after this year when they all make their debut's. The Twins haven't develo[ed an ACE in such a long time, that fans forget how hard it is to develop one ACE, much less 2 or 3. The M's also have Zunino who is being compared to Jason Varitek, and other star Catchers. The core players of my Jays assessment are Sanchez,Syndergaard, D'Arnaud. I am probably overrating the Jays, Norris' Velocity has dropped a bunch since HS and last year (4MPH on his fastball that used to hit 96) .the Pirates should be #5. Lots of young Dominicans coming up, with 2 sure fire aces. I stand pat with 1-4, Should be Pirates 5,Twins 6.

The only Aces in the MILB right now are
Bundy
Skaggs
Bauer
Bradley
Taillon
Cole
T.Walker
Aaron Sanchez
Potentially Hultzen
TBD this year : Guerreri,Fried,Snell

I'd say Meyer is a #2 since his slider and fastball project to be plus pitches and his changeup looks average for a 3rd. He may not have the pitches required to be an ace, but I wouldn't be surprised if he could put up borderline ace numbers (ceiling). I mean Gibson has #2 upside and Meyer is a better prospect. May seems like #2/#3 Flex. Certainly more on the #3 side, but definitely not 'fringe'. Fried is a potential ace? I doubt it. His draft stock should have been higher then.

Originally Posted by jmlease1

Meyer & May are fringe 3's?!? Really? Man, you must have absolutely hated these last two trades.

I'm not saying that ranking the Twins system 6 is some grave insult (I can argue for a couple places higher), but I would certainly value Meyer & May higher. These aren't 18 year-old rookie ball guys with no track record putting up numbers against garbage competition. Both are on the fast track to the majors with Meyer clearly having the stuff to be a frontline starter. May isn't as advanced, but grades out as a potential 2-3 starter.

I disagree with Meyer and May being fringe #3's but I think that some have overrated May and Meyer. Imo they have good upside but they aren't likely to reach it (esp May).

Originally Posted by righty8383

Originally Posted by Brandon

Where does Wimmers rank on our list?

Probably in the 15-20 range with a chance to move up once he is healthy and pitching well.

I'd rank him in the 20-25. #22 to be precise and just below Luke Bard. That's solely because he's a first round pick. I think a lot of other contributors to the site have him lower because of TJ. He wasn't doing too well prior to it either. When you think about how slim the odds are for prospects to make the show, the odds really aren't in his favor. He can only hope to go the Gibson route.