Thread: Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,
also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?

At this stage, yes... do you think that Piazza was instantly a top prospect when he was a 62nd round pick? No, but he played great and moved up lists quickly. We've got like 20 innings on all of these college relievers, at low levels, so we know pretty much nothing yet.

And, they took the best player available (Buxton), so they couldn't get Gausman or Zimmer.

Sorry Seth, 50 is too many. The list starts to lose any meaning after 20-25 considering you just named about a third of the entire organization.

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

wow and you dont even have slama in the top 50 ?
so much for stats huh...hermsen is rated high and heres a kid with a below average fastball no out pitch who the twins hope and believe can be a back of the rotation starter , maybe a decent #4 or 5 guy , and once again athony gets dissed

I'd say Slama is easily a top 50 Twins' minor leaguer, just not really a prospect anymore. Thats not meant to be a diss...

Harrison is even less likely to stick at 3B than Sano, correct? Are any of our SS prospects candidates to move to 3B?

A pretty good list Seth. Since you have been doing this for 7-8 years, how about just for fun posting you previous 20 top lists to review somwhere on this site.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,
also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?

At this stage, yes... do you think that Piazza was instantly a top prospect when he was a 62nd round pick? No, but he played great and moved up lists quickly. We've got like 20 innings on all of these college relievers, at low levels, so we know pretty much nothing yet.

And, they took the best player available (Buxton), so they couldn't get Gausman or Zimmer.

That's a legit arguement regarding Bard. There is probably still some residual resentment from some of us surrounding the guy. He was not a popular draft pick and then pitched below expectaions and was injured in his short professional debut. The small sample size arguement is all the harder for optomists to swallow because it then invalidates the success of the eight or so drafted arms who pitched well above expectations last year.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

That's a legit arguement regarding Bard. There is probably still some residual resentment from some of us surrounding the guy. He was not a popular draft pick and then pitched below expectaions and was injured in his short professional debut. The small sample size arguement is all the harder for optomists to swallow because it then invalidates the success of the eight or so drafted arms who pitched well above expectations last year.

I don't want to invalidate those successes, but we always have to be careful about making too much out of college pitchers putting up insane numbers in E-town. However, 5 guys from this year's draft moved up to Beloit and still did well. But some will move into starting roles (Rogers, Baxendale, Bard, etc.) and that will be an adjustment. The relievers could move quickly to New Britain and that's when they should start getting challenged.

Ratings based on who I would rather keep or trade :
Too high:
- Salcedo - low k rate even before injury
- Herrmann - back-up C/OF
- Santana - OBP is too low
- Hernandez - nothing special (AAA pitcher)
- Ortiz - way too high
- Boer - gives up too many hits/IP

Too Low:
- Minier - even though he hasn't played yet, bonus indicates top 25 to start
- Zach Jones - 2012 relief arms are underrated
- Michael - 2nd Half stats were good (386 OBP)

Originally Posted by SarasotaBill

Ratings based on who I would rather keep or trade :
Too high:
- Salcedo - low k rate even before injury
- Herrmann - back-up C/OF
- Santana - OBP is too low
- Hernandez - nothing special (AAA pitcher)
- Ortiz - way too high
- Boer - gives up too many hits/IP

Too Low:
- Minier - even though he hasn't played yet, bonus indicates top 25 to start
- Zach Jones - 2012 relief arms are underrated
- Michael - 2nd Half stats were good (386 OBP)

I'd also add Hermsen and Summers to that list. I just don't see how pitchers who struggle that badly to strike guys out in the low minors are going to be able to contribute at the major league level.

I'm fine with Salcedo, compared with the others his "stuff" is talked about as being pretty good, that he should get more strike outs then he does thus far. With Hermsen his velocity dipped after being drafted(I saw him in HS, he threw quite hard then) and it's never picked back up.

Thanks for the list Seth. I'm surprised you left out your relief pitcher of the year A.J. Achter. I would have thought he'd be in your 30s with the other power bullpen arms.

DJ Hicks is going to be the sleeper prospect.

.He batted .270 in 115 ab, with 7 2b and 4 HR.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=543306

I am surprised that Sam Gibbons, a 6'4" 18yo Aussie who was pretty dominant in the GCL, didn't even merit an honorable mention. I thought you were high on him before the season?

Sam Gibbons (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=611471).

I agree with DJ Hicks. He was limited this past short season (injury), but was as clutch as they come in each of his ABs throughout the season & playoffs. He is a lot faster around the bag as well, as a defender (Solid), than he is on the base paths. Crazy pop in his bat to all fields.
http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp...vkey=news_milb
MINOR LEAGUE MILBY AWARD WINNER

Chargeois at 36? I think Sickels had him in his top 20. What's your take on JT Seth?

I think you might have Mata too low. Also what about the 16 year old Dominican shortstop they signed last year?

Originally Posted by JP3700

Thanks for the list Seth. I'm surprised you left out your relief pitcher of the year A.J. Achter. I would have thought he'd be in your 30s with the other power bullpen arms.

Achter isn't a power arm in the same way... He's a really good pitcher. He has multiple pitches and he's very smart. I don't think he's got quite the fastball as those other guys, but he's able to hit his spots. I'm a big fan of his, and I think he can reach the big leagues as a long reliever/7th inning type.

Originally Posted by Thegrin

DJ Hicks is going to be the sleeper prospect.

.He batted .270 in 115 ab, with 7 2b and 4 HR.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=543306

He's a solid prospect. Of course, in the Appy League, we should be looking for much bigger numbers than that from a college power hitter. He didn't play every day for the E-Twins. He was a mid-rounds pick (16th/17th round) for a reason. He came up with the biggest hit of the season for the E-Twins in that championship game though.

Originally Posted by Monkeypaws

Chargeois at 36? I think Sickels had him in his top 20. What's your take on JT Seth?

he's a hard-throwing, 2nd round pick. Sickels generally ranks relief pitchers higher than I do. I typically don't rank them very high at all. So, the fact that the 30s, for me, is filled with relievers is actually quite revealing. I think that, if healthy, he could fly through the system. He could get to Rochester next year. He could be a late-inning reliever, and he's definitely someone to track.

Originally Posted by clutterheart

I think you might have Mata too low. Also what about the 16 year old Dominican shortstop they signed last year?

His performance in Venezuela is also saying he's too low on my list. The walks are something to watch, but there's no doubt that Mata has the talent. It'll be interesting to see if they have him start in Cedar Rapids next season.

As for Minier, he'll be on the list in time, for sure. I'd like to see him put up some numbers (besides a big signing bonus) first. His signing bonus was huge though, so it'll be interesting to see if he comes to the States this year and gets time in the GCL.