Twins top 10 prospects

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Originally Posted by taune

and yes this is Travis

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Hey, don't be shy! You can use your full name as your user name so we know who you are!

I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)

Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.

I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.

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Originally Posted by John Bonnes

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Originally Posted by taune

and yes this is Travis

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Hey, don't be shy! You can use your full name as your user name so we know who you are!

I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)

Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.

I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.

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I hope they do not give up on Rosario at second either. I don't think he was *that* bad there in his time. Another off-season of practice there should help. Sano can move to 1B if he has to and not further clog up the OF.

Anyone know where we can find archived versions of Baseball America's Top 100 overall lists? What I'm really wondering is when the Twins last had so many high upside prospects? I'll be very interested to see how many of these guys are in the top 100 or even the top 50.

In about 2002 or so, the Twins had Mauer and Morneau in the top 10 of BA and I think Cuddyer was around 25. Restovich may have been Top 100 that year.

BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today.../all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

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Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.

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I like this way of thinking about it. Putting the first hurdle at full season ball and the second as the jump to AA. I think Hi A can be a decent starting place for a college player, but Michael was pushed pretty aggressively considering the fact he was on the young side for a junior and the fact he was injured for much of last year. Next year will really be the telling year for him.

This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today.../all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

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The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow.

Yeah things really got thin after 2007. Garza, Perkins and Slowey all graduated I think and Parmelee underperformed thus fell off.

BTW, thanks Seth for sharing this. Always interesting to see prospect lists from years ago. It shows how unpredictable prospects can be. However thats the fun of following them.

Lets assume the consensus top 5 in no particular order is Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks. If I was to travel 6 or 7 years into the future, and find out that 2 of these guys turned out to be productive/above average big league players, should I call that a success?

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Originally Posted by drjim

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Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.

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I like this way of thinking about it. Putting the first hurdle at full season ball and the second as the jump to AA. I think Hi A can be a decent starting place for a college player, but Michael was pushed pretty aggressively considering the fact he was on the young side for a junior and the fact he was injured for much of last year. Next year will really be the telling year for him.

This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.

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I am glad you like it, but the Twins do not. They stagnate players all the time in A+ and AA (and pitchers in E-Town and A+). If Sano does very well or better through June for Fort Myers, i will start going crazy if they don't then promote him. There is nothing wrong with playing at AA or AAA for more than year if one has been pushed aggressively before then.

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Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today.../all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

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The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow.

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No kidding. It's not really hard to understand why we've been so brutal in recent years when you look at these lists and couple that with the laughable Billy Smith trade record.

As John mentioned, it'll be interesting to compare around 05 when Morneau and Cuddyer were cutting their teeth in the big leagues and Mauer and Kubel were so highly regarded with Arcia and Hicks in the bigs and Sano, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, Kepler and Harrison not far behind. I think the 05 group had the higher ceilings with more sure-fire answers, but this upcoming group certainly has more depth and potential upside. Let's hope we can keep Sano, Rosario and Harrison in the infield, as a few have mentioned.

Things would, of course, get really interesting if Berrios turns out to be a full-blown ace in the making. We'll see, but we all have to be very optimistic, albeit cautiously, after his showing in E-town this year.

not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

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I'd disagree. Arcia has had great results but his upside (from what I understand) is a solid RFer whereas Sano, Hicks and Buxton could all be all stars or more and none of them have shown reasons to rate them lower at this time.

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

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Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

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I'd disagree. Arcia has had great results but his upside (from what I understand) is a solid RFer whereas Sano, Hicks and Buxton could all be all stars or more and none of them have shown reasons to rate them lower at this time.

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Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

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Originally Posted by Badsmerf

Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

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In a recent chat, Callis wrote:
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.

The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.

Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.

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Originally Posted by beckmt

Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.

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Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).

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Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).

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I think that Ortiz and Morales would be subject to the AAA part of the rule 5 draft and Bigley to the MLB part of the same draft this season so a team can have them for practically nothing :)

On the other hand, the Twins should deal from a strength. Too many OFs: Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Buxton, Benson etc (Revere, Parmelee, Sano/Harrison) equals a bottleneck. So the Twins should deal some. And the higher they deal the better the return. I would have zero problem is they deal Arcia or Hicks (but not both) for an equally rated SP prospect. Buxton cannot be traded, Kepler is about to shoot really high in value and Benson dropped. The Twins have to sell high. Point in case Angel Morales. Few seasons ago he was a top prospect, now... They missed the window of opportunity.

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

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Originally Posted by Badsmerf

Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

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In a recent chat, Callis wrote:
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.

The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.

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I see your point, but at the same time you are selling what Arcia did this year too low. Sano has the chance to not just be an All-Star, but a special player. Buxton is far too young and inexperienced to rank above Arcia at this point and Hicks is 1.5 years older than Arcia and finally put up a good season..... but it still wasn't as good as Arcia's.

The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).

All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.

Like the list, though I'd have Benson in there somewhere over Vargas. Ya, he put up some big numbers in a short sample, but he's a DH.

I also like the optimism about Sano sticking at 3B. I really really really hope that can happen, but I'd bet $$ he's in RF when he debuts with the Twins.