Thread: 2012 Draft Class: You be the GM

I would have preferred any high ceiling HS pitcher to Bard, frankly. As stated above, my issues with the draft (really development and draft) go back several years. As for relievers being quick to the show, that's not how the Twins usually do it. They try to make these guys starters for a few years before converting them back to relievers. Also, I think I would have taken Gausman in round 1. While Buxton may be a great player some day, this system is devoid of SP prospects. Since they have little history of trading veterans for great pitching prospects, or of signing high priced pitching FAs, the only way they seem to get them is through the draft. Hence, my preference for taking a guy like Gausman over a guy like Buxton. If they had a history of trading minor league prospects for legit MLB starters, then taking Buxton makes more sense. But, between Arcia, Hicks, Benson, Sano, they have a great core of OFers with high upside already.

that said, the Buxton pick didn't depress me, or seem wrong to me, it was just a different philosophy than I'd have chosen. Also, it is possible that they will change their approach to trades and FA, in which case I'm more ok with the pick.

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

Gibson, Berrios.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

Gibson, Berrios.

Dunno. Berrios needs another pitch and Gibson needs to get back to where he was before the injury before I'd project them as #2s.

Both have good upside, though. Berrios' upside could be huge while Gibson is more of a sure thing without as high a ceiling.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Also, I think I would have taken Gausman in round 1. While Buxton may be a great player some day, this system is devoid of SP prospects.

Jesus, you make it seem like the Twins passed on Strasburg to draft Buxton. In a normal draft class, Gausman, Zimmer, Appel would have been mid firstround icks at best. It was weak class and the Twins took the best player on the board, hell IMO they took the best player in the draft. His ceiling his sky high and it's not like the Twins are gonna have any shortage of picks early in the first round for the forseeable future.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

everyone complains that we don't have enough hard throwers, the Twins address it, and people are upset. One other nice thing about college RP is they haven't been over extended like many college starters who are asked to throw 130+ pitches a game.

First off just cause you throw 95 outta the pen, doesn't mean you'll mantain that velocity once you're a starter. Hell look what the pen did for Perkins, it took 89-92 and turned it into 95. NTM there's a reason these guys are in the pen, either lack of a 3rd pitch, durability and who knows. It's not like a college coach is still a kid who can start in the pen for ****s and giggles.

It's a nice idea, but it rarely works out.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

Gibson, Berrios.

Dunno. Berrios needs another pitch and Gibson needs to get back to where he was before the injury before I'd project them as #2s.

Both have good upside, though. Berrios' upside could be huge while Gibson is more of a sure thing without as high a ceiling.

a number two, according to the standard scouting definition espoused by b.a., is a guy with two plus pitches, an average third pitch and average to plus command. berrios' fastball is right now a borderline 70 (plus plus) and his slider is a 60 (plus) and he's shown a knack for pounding the strikezone and changing speeds. he's at least a no.2 ceiling guy, imo. the only thing he doesn't have going for him is his build.

Originally Posted by DPJ

Jesus, you make it seem like the Twins passed on Strasburg to draft Buxton. In a normal draft class, Gausman, Zimmer, Appel would have been mid firstround icks at best. It was weak class and the Twins took the best player on the board, hell IMO they took the best player in the draft. His ceiling his sky high and it's not like the Twins are gonna have any shortage of picks early in the first round for the forseeable future.

Agreed 100%. The pitching prospects weren't great this year (though I wouldn't have cried if the Twins took Appel and signed him).

Buxton was probably the most talented guy in the draft.

And it's going to be at least three years before we see him. A lot can change in three years. That's why you take what you feel to be the BPA. Filling needs on the ML roster with guys who won't be ready for a half decade is a good way to continually draft the wrong guys with lower upside.

On draft day, I was hoping for Gausman/Zimmer at #2, and would have picked Piscotty in a heartbeat at #32. Given the lack of high-quality arms, I thought the strategy was fine, but wasn't excited about Bard, Melotakis, or Duffey. Liked the picks of Powell, Mazilli, and Baxendale. Fast forward to now, and I am pumped about Buxton's rebound from a horrible start, as well as the dominating performances we're seeing from Berrios, Baxendale, and some of the other pitchers. Overall, I feel pretty good about this draft/

The Twins made the right call on Buxton and Berrios (even though I thought they'd take Mitch Brown). I thought Berrios had done enough to sneak into the first round, so I was glad to see the Twins take him.

Bard didn't excite me at the time and doesn't excite me now. Truth be told, though, when the Twins were on the clock at #42, there wasn't a lot in terms of college pitchers that did excite me. Pierce Johnson, who went right after Bard, would have pleased more fans, because he projected as a starter, but Bard's ceiling is higher.

Melotakis signed for below slot, though at the time he was drafted I was hoping for Mitch Brown. As for the run on college relievers, I wasn't for it, though they did pick up a half-dozen guys with minimal wear on their arms. If a couple pan out plus Buxton and Berrios, we'll say it was an extremely productive draft.

I still think the Twins should have taken Appel. Because they took Buxton they may be pressured into taking the best Pitcher available this year in the draft. The pitching crop this year is extremely week. They are having the opposite problem that the mariners did when they took Hultzen and everyone wanted them to take Rendon. This year if they would have gone with the BPA they would have taken Appel, but because they have taken the BPA the last few years, who were pitchers they had to take the BPA who was a hitter. The Twins have no future aces other than Berrios who is around 5 years away. This years prep hitters are decent Trey Ball, Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows,Zack Collins all are better than the top HS pitcher, but because of the lack of pitching depth in the System the Twins may be forced to take a flyer on the Best Pitcher available.

BA just released a top 50 for 2013. The top 3 guys are pitchers. The next 3 are hitters. Three of the next five are pitchers. Later on is Karsten Whitson, who will be a top 5 pick if he has a healthy season.

The Twins would pick fourth if the season ended today and are closer to picking third, than fifth. No matter how you shake it, it's going to be tough to call them taking a pitcher a "flyer".

I don't think it's that the pitchers, specifically, are weak. I think it's, similar to last year, that the overall draft isn't great.

Um, I never said Gausman was going to be great, you are totally putting words in my mouth. I said "I think" I would have taken Gausman instead, I didn't even say I was sure I would do that. That does not in any way imply anything about his upside, not even a little. I think I justified why I'd have taken the best or 2nd best pitching prospect in this draft quite clearly. It had NOTHING to do with his upside at all. If you want to attack my arguments, feel free, but at least attack my actual arguments.

1. The Twins have never traded prospects for a legit, big time MLB pitcher.
2. The Twins have never signed a legit, big time MLB pitcher in free agency.
3. Their best starting pitchers were either acquired as a throw in a in a trade, or through the draft (other than jack morris, but he was kind of considered doneish when they signed him).
4. IF the above stays true, the only way they'll get good/great starters is throug the draft.
5. OF is their deepest MiLB and MLB position.

I never once said Gausman was Strasburg, never even implied it. I never said I'd have definitely taken him instead of Buxton. I said, I didn't know how else they'd get pitching with much upside if they didn't draft it.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by DPJ

Jesus, you make it seem like the Twins passed on Strasburg to draft Buxton. In a normal draft class, Gausman, Zimmer, Appel would have been mid firstround icks at best. It was weak class and the Twins took the best player on the board, hell IMO they took the best player in the draft. His ceiling his sky high and it's not like the Twins are gonna have any shortage of picks early in the first round for the forseeable future.

Agreed 100%. The pitching prospects weren't great this year (though I wouldn't have cried if the Twins took Appel and signed him).

Buxton was probably the most talented guy in the draft.

And it's going to be at least three years before we see him. A lot can change in three years. That's why you take what you feel to be the BPA. Filling needs on the ML roster with guys who won't be ready for a half decade is a good way to continually draft the wrong guys with lower upside.

To comment on both of these for a bit. The problem DPJ is that there wasn't a Strasburg/Harper type talent in the draft. This is why Houston went with Corea at #1 overall.

Brock, Buxton might have been better in terms of some sort of subjective BPA, but I doubt that gap was all that much as Buxton wouldn't have went 2 overall in most other years either. Appel/Gausman/Zimmer all of #2 type pitcher for their ceilings and could have started in AA if the Twins wanted. These guys could have slotted in nicely to help in 2014, but instead they best pitcher they took is a guy that won't help till 2016 at the earliest. I like Berrios, but this is a long term pickup, not something to help in the short term.

I'm not quite as down as DPJ on some of the relievers. At the very worst, they will have a ton of hard-throwing bullpen help knocking on the door come 2014. It is a nice combination of upside/safety as I wouldn't be surprised at all if this draft nets 4 or 5 big league players, which is pretty good for a draft. However, if they can teach just one of those 2 pitch guys a 3rd pitch, they'll have also added a nice starter to that mix. It should be clear that it wasn't like there were some higher ceiling college arms availalbe at this point. The only other option would have been some high school arms that will be 5 years away. I woudln't have minded a better mix of them, but their strategy was far from horrible.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

Gibson, Berrios.

I need to see some success from Berrios above the Rookie Leagues before I start projecting him anywhere, so I disagree (for now) on that one.

If Gibson returns to his 2010 form, I'll agree with that, but that's not going to happen this year, or likely next year, while they limit him coming back from surgery.

So basically that means we have 1 guy who might be a #2 when he gets to the majors in the entire system right now. That's the best we have, which quite frankly, is pathetic.

And exactly "ditto" to Mike Wants Wins 5 points and everything else he says above. The only place the Twins are ever going to get high-end pitching is in the draft. Since that's the case, they have to draft it.

Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard

BA just released a top 50 for 2013. The top 3 guys are pitchers. The next 3 are hitters. Three of the next five are pitchers. Later on is Karsten Whitson, who will be a top 5 pick if he has a healthy season.

The Twins would pick fourth if the season ended today and are closer to picking third, than fifth. No matter how you shake it, it's going to be tough to call them taking a pitcher a "flyer".

I don't think it's that the pitchers, specifically, are weak. I think it's, similar to last year, that the overall draft isn't great.

LOL, Whitson still hasn't developed his 3rd pitch....
top 4 should be
Stanek
Frazier
Appel
Meadows

Followed by
Moran
Collins
Ball

this is weaker than last years class.

I would have liked the Twins to take Nick Wittgren from Purdue instead of Lee Mazzilli in the 9th round. Wittgren dominated rookie ball and is up to A ball now.

Also, Mike Zunino is murdering the ball. Up to AA now.

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Also, Mike Zunino is murdering the ball. Up to AA now.

Not a huge surprise, he was considered one of the fastest to the majors college players and he came from a great baseball conference. I don't think the Twins should have taken him though.

(Of course, once he gets to Seattle, he'll hit like Nick Punto ...)

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

Gibson, Berrios.

I need to see some success from Berrios above the Rookie Leagues before I start projecting him anywhere, so I disagree (for now) on that one.

If Gibson returns to his 2010 form, I'll agree with that, but that's not going to happen this year, or likely next year, while they limit him coming back from surgery.

It's all about upside, I'm not saying that Berrios or Gibson is going to be a #2 tomorrow, but both have the potential/ceilings to at least be a #2.

I love how people are suddenly down on Gibson, in 2011 he was still getting a bunch of ground ball outs, and upped his k rate to 8.6.

In 2010 and 2011 he had a 57% GB rate, if you couple that with the potential to strike out 7.5-8.5 per nine innings while limiting walks, he is easily a number 2.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I never once said Gausman was Strasburg, never even implied it. I never said I'd have definitely taken him instead of Buxton. I said, I didn't know how else they'd get pitching with much upside if they didn't draft it.

First off calm the hell down, it's a figure of speech. You're talking up a guy only cause he's a pitch, but in reality, he's a medicore early pick at best.

You do realize that the Twins are gonna draft early in 2013, 2014 and more then likely for quite a few years right? Just cause in 2012 they opted to draft an OF with an insane ceiling doesn't mean all hope is lost. They'll more then likely take an arm in the 2013 draft (unless the BPA is on the board and a position player) and for many more years to come. This isn't gonna be an overnight fix, so taking the best player with the highest ceiling over mid-rotation arms is something we should all agree on.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

It's all about upside, I'm not saying that Berrios or Gibson is going to be a #2 tomorrow, but both have the potential/ceilings to at least be a #2.

I love how people are suddenly down on Gibson, in 2011 he was still getting a bunch of ground ball outs, and upped his k rate to 8.6.

In 2010 and 2011 he had a 57% GB rate, if you couple that with the potential to strike out 7.5-8.5 per nine innings while limiting walks, he is easily a number 2.

Tommy John surgery is a pretty big reason to temper expectations (which is what I'm doing, it's not that I'm "down" on him), and like I said, if he gets back to his 2010 form...