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I am a homer no doubt, but I think the Twins are legitimately a top 10 farm system in all of baseball, if they could find a couple more arms we would be talking about a truly special group heading into 2013.
Sano and Buxton are both top 25 guys.
Hicks and Arcia should be close to the top 50, and guys like Rosario, Gibson and Benson should crack the occasional top 100 list.
In addition there are several other high upside guys such as Berrios, Goodrum, Harrison and more.
I think we're probably in the 10-15 range, myself. I think Sano and Buxton will both be in the top 25ish. Rosario might be 40-60 range. Arcia and Hicks in the 80ish range, is my guess. That's not a bad top 5. Gibson is coming back from injury but he's a nice #6 but he won't be on anyone's top 100. After that though, it gets tough. Benson fell apart and the best guys after that are in rookie ball, hard to see that getting a ton of love. But the system is certainly moving in the right direction.
I, too, think this an easy top 10 Dave. Sano, Arcia, Buxton should all be in the top 50. Rosario and Hicks shouldn't be too far out of the top 50. Berrios, and Gibson should be in the top 100 (other pitchers haven't been docked that much for coming back from injury). And there is a few guys that could be considered in the 150 range. I'm sure there are other top 10 lists that have some higher upside arms, but doubt there is many with this much talent all the way down.
I wouldn't be surprised if Berrios passes Gibson and cracks at least some of the top 100 lists for next season. Unless Gibson has a stellar AFL performance, he is probably behind even Hendriks in some lists.Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnarthor
Also they should have quite a bit of nice talent at the high levels of the minors. Even Sano and Rosario will be in A+, while Arica, Gibson, Hicks, Benson will all be close to major league ready/AAAQuote:
Originally Posted by Badsmerf
Arcia needs to be pretty close to the top 25. He is still a bit of a sucker for breaking balls in the dirt, but that has been his only weekness so far. He has been the most productive hitting prospect this year unless you want to count Parmelee.
I think the trick we want here, if the objective is to pump the system up a bit, is to artificially lower expectations and then leap way over them. To that end, how about this for consideration
-In position players, the Twins have a top five system.
Simple. Elegant. Possibly even true?
Hendriks is over the limit to be on lists. But it brings up another good point, guys like Parmelee, Hendriks, Diamond and Plouffe are obviously no longer prospects, but have the ability to be young impact players in 2013+Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98I wouldn't be surprised if Berrios passes Gibson and cracks at least some of the top 100 lists for next season. Unless Gibson has a stellar AFL performance, he is probably behind even Hendriks in some lists.Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnarthor
The Twins have a nice little youth movement on their hands.
They were 18th in the 2012 Baseball America listing.
I think they could crack the top 10. Adding 2 #1picks this yr who have impressed, 2 supplemental #1 picks last yr who have done well this year in their first crack adds depth, & the 4 top players from last yrs list have all improved (sans Benson/Michaels). Add in Gibson being healthy, it wouldnt shock me at all. Only downside is the lack of top flight pitchers.
Did not think of the limits, so I went to see what Jonathan Mayo says for his limits for the MLB.com top 100 list. This is what he says:Quote:
Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave
So: Hendriks, Dozier, Diamond, DeVries and Parmelee are over the limit, but Diamond should be in the Rookie of the Year discussion (not first, but top 5)Quote:
To be eligible for a list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.
I like Berrios a lot, too. But for him to crack the top 100 he'd have to have a real impressive month. 31st overall pick in a draft isn't going to get a ton of love, esp someone so young in rookie ball. I think he could very well be a fast riser - someone that, a year from now, a lot of prospect websites are talking about as the steal of last years draft, but I doubt anyone will have him on their top 100 and only a few would have him in the Twins top 6. (I'd have some combination of Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, Gibson as the clear top 6 and round out the top 10ish with some order of Harrison, Michael, Kepler, Goodrum and Berrios. (I'm probably forgetting someone)Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98I wouldn't be surprised if Berrios passes Gibson and cracks at least some of the top 100 lists for next season. Unless Gibson has a stellar AFL performance, he is probably behind even Hendriks in some lists.Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnarthor
Yeah... it's hard to tell. I did a kind of an interesting exercise last spring: I created a consensus Twins' top prospects' list using as sources all Twins' prospect lists (you can find it here.) And that was 25 sources and ended up being a top 66 (was 71 but 5 were gone from the organization) list. Here is the top 15 from that list:Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnarthor
1 Miguel Sano 3B
2 Eddie Rosario 2B/OF
3 Oswaldo Arcia OF
4 Aaron Hicks OF
5 Joe Benson OF
6 Liam Hendriks P
7 Kyle Gibson P
8 Levi Michael IF
9 Adrian Salcedo P
10 Brian Dozier IF
11 Chris Parmelee 1B/OF
12 Alex Wimmers P
13 Travis Harrison IF
14 Hudson Boyd P
15 Max Kepler OF
3 do not qualify for 2013, and I suspect that 3 of the Twins 2012 Draft picks will take their place there. On the other hand, there is a particular player who was number 56 in the consensus list (thus absent from most of the 25 lists) who would really have to have top 15 considerations and probably top 10 considerations: Kennys Vargas. Add Buxton and Berrios and this is pretty much your top 15 list. Benson, Gibson, Salcedo and Wimmers will probably drop (because of the same reason - injuries; ) Michael might drop, even though he has been doing better recently. Kepler will probably rise, but that's about it. Not sure that the consensus top 15 would be much different that this next season (pre-season)
I think the farm system will easily be top 10. 30 teams in the majors and the Twins will probably have two top 30 prospects and possibly 3 in the next 30 with a lot of interesting upside guys the Twins top 25 after that. there isn't much balance between pitching and hitting but talent is the only thing that matters in rankings like this.
Its interesting to see many of the top pitching prospects in baseball struggling this year. Which proves prospects are such a tough thing to project. Julio Teheran, Trevor May, Jameson Taillon to an extent, Jared Cosart, Manny Banuelos, and Martin Perez just to name a few. I think the Twins lack any superstar prospects with the possible exception of Sano. However, they seem to have many prospects that are pretty solid across the board.. hopefully being big league starters. I guess it just depends how you rank systems.. by depth or by upside potential
Which outfield do you like better...
LF:Benson CF: Hicks RF: Arcia or...
LF: Kepler CF: Buxton RF: Walker
Arcia, Hicks, Benson and its not even close at this point. Call me maybe in 3 years when the other 3 have had success at higher levels.Quote:
Originally Posted by TRex
Well, Buxton has the highest ceiling and Benson's a bust at this point but Hicks and Arcia are so close to the majors right now, you'd have to go with them.Quote:
Originally Posted by TRex
Even though they technically don't qualify, Dozier and Parmelee haven't exactly graduated and should be considered prospects... that's just picking some nits though.
I tended to be optimistic and said they were a 10-15 system at the beginning of the year. I suspect that should be higher now with Buxton and Berrios. Arcia, Hicks, Sano, and Rosario should all be top 100 guys and I suspect Buxton will be there as well (even though I personally wouldn't put him there). You could make a case for Gibson and Parmelee (if he was considered a prospect) as well. If I were grading things, Arcia and mabye Sanpo are likely an A- guys and the rest of those guys are the B+ range. That's a pretty solid core...
Too bad they don't have squat for pitching.
This was debated elsewhere about a month ago. BA had the Twins at 19. Of the teams ahead of them, I'd say they've only passed the Angels, Rockies, and maybe the Cards, Rays and Red Sox. That would put them right in that 15 range, but the lack of high-end pitching prospects AND the lack of MLB-ready guys will keep them out of the Top 10.
I think the Twin's have the top end hitting talent to be in the top 10, but obviously there really isn't any pitching. If Berrios is excellent at Elizabethon, he'll crack the top 100, but he'll be at the back end for sure. I also think a lot of you are discrediting Aaron Hicks. He's putting up the same numbers he did coming off his top 20 ranking by b.a. I'd guess he is top 40 again. Then Buxton and Sano will both be top 15. Gibson could also sneek into the 90's