07-05-2012, 05:33 PM #21
I don't think there was any need whatsoever to do what the Twins did to Parmelee this year (and Tosoni last year). I do think it does matter where a player gets at bats. If he is overmatched in MLB, he isn't going to improve for quite awhile. If he has already performed well at AA and AAA is at least a bit more competitive/like MLB it would seem worthwhile to give him time in AAA! People seem to forget that Parmelee was NOT great in the minors before that callup in September. He was a good AA hitter. Now hopefully he can be at least a good AAA hitter for a bit (until September, or August if Morneau is traded at the deadline) and make adjustments so that he is actually ready.
07-05-2012, 07:56 PM #22
07-05-2012, 10:08 PM #23
think Parmelee was very good last yr. He was forgotten about as he redid his swing but was a good average/rbi guy.
Joe Benson returned to GCL today for a few days of rehab....when back, do the keep he, Hicks & Arcia together in New Brit...as the OF of the future. What do you do with Evan Bigby then.....definately deserves a promotion in his 3rd AA yr, but with Clete Thomas types in AAA, it makes the point of this thread.....only retreads in AAA.
07-05-2012, 10:34 PM #24
When you are comparing AA and AAA, what I've always felt is that elite "talent", like Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, etc, skip AAA and end up in the show, while guys that aren't at that level benefit from the experience of AAA. I don't really see a huge gap between hitter's and pitchers, but the Twins have lacked so much in pitching talent over the last decade it may seem like that. Sad to say but there really isn't anyone at AA right now that you'd consider elite (or AAA for that matter) so the Twins top minor leaguers, like Parmalee and Hendricks stand to gain form the additional seasoning at AAA. We just shouldn't count on those guys being anything more than run of the mill major leaguers.
07-05-2012, 11:45 PM #25
The jump from AA to AAA is slight. The jump to the majors is huge.
Many good players have had early struggles. Sometimes the solution is more time at AAA, but the level of play is not near major league. It is not possible for most players to arrive at the major league level "ready". Often the solution is to work through struggle. With their record, the Twins can afford to invest the plate appearances in Dozier. Parmelee needs playing time and so his development is stalled and playing at AAA is better than bench time in the majors.
For hitters it may take 1000 major league plate appearances (hopefully before age 27) for an organization to determine their ability to contribute. This was a key year for Valencia to step up. He didnlt. Casilla has well over 1000 plate appearances. Both players are probably showing their potential.
The Twins invested quite a few plate appearances into Revere and Plouffe starting last year before getting some return this year. Unless Doumit or Moreau are traded or come up injured, Parmelee's development at the major league level is blocked. This would have been an ideal year to invest bats in Parmelee.
07-06-2012, 02:57 AM #26
Intriguing topic. I created a spreadsheet based on MLB.com's Top Prospect list. I looked at 2011 & 2012 prospects that have either made it to AAA or MLB (the only 2 years available). While the sample size is small it does give a more objective look at time spent at AAA. In the spreadsheet I did not include September call ups as MLB start dates unless the player started the following season on the MLB 25 man roster. Also keep in mind these are just the cream of the crop prospects (as defined by mlb.com). How other players progress through the minors may or may not follow this same pattern.
Hitters PA @ AAA:
On MLB rosters 10 0 PA 2 (Rosario, Simmons) <100 4 (above + Trout, Harper) <200 4 (above) <500 8 (above + 4 others) >500 71
Pitchers IP @ AAA:
On MLB rosters 9 0 IP 12 (Pomeranz) <35 3 (above + Parker, Friedrich) <70 5 (above + Moore, Bauer) <140 9 (above + 4 others) >140 31
 Includes players not called up to MLB rosters yet.
 Was called up straight from AA to start the season having never pitched in AAA. Started for a couple of months before being sent down to AAA.
For hitters it seems either your team thinks you're ready for MLB straight out of AA (Trout, Harper, etc...) or you spend at least a year at AAA level. If you have a deficiency in a particular skill or you are blocked by players already at the MLB level you might spend up to 2 full seasons at AAA (Montero, Alonso, etc...).
For Pitchers they seem to be called up as needs arise at the MLB level. Only 2 pitchers were counted on to start right out of spring training and one (Drew Pomeranz), who went straight from AA to MLB to start the season, was sent down to AAA after a few months because he wasn't performing. On the other end of the spectrum Teheran and Montgomery have both already pitched a season and a half at AAA without being called up.
07-06-2012, 11:44 AM #27
My biggest belief between the two would be pitchers need work at AAA because it is critical for them to prove they can get outs while throwing in the strike zone. In AA, many of the hitters are less disciplined and chase more pitches. This is why I feel AA is the top proving ground for hitting prospects. If they are successful at AA, it shows they can force top talent level pitchers to pitch in the zone which is critical to make the jump to the majors. It is also the reason I think pitching prospects need to go to AAA where they will face less talented hitters, but those who are more disciplined and will force them to develop "out pitches" in the strike zone.
07-07-2012, 12:48 PM #28
Not that it's the top 50 prospects in baseball, but the original Future's Game rosters featured 6 AAA players (two of whom have since been promoted) and 24 AA players. To me, that's a pretty good indication where the best prospects reside (though other things obviously factor in).
07-07-2012, 02:05 PM #29
Yes, I agree that the best prospects are in AA and usually jump to the majors because they are that good. This doesn't, well, shouldn't really apply to anyone for Twins, not named Sano (and maybe Rosario, Arcia and Buxton). It certainly did NOT apply to Chris Parmelee.
07-07-2012, 02:32 PM #30
You are at AAA because you have played i the majors or have earned a spot on the 40-man roster. The competition is a bit higher at AAA than at AA levels. The players also tend to be older.
Most of the placement of a player in the minors is not based on just ability, but also age, playing against similar types. Most AAA rosters are full of guys who are on the cusp of being in the majors, guys who can fill-in for an organization, but not maybe year-after-year, or people trying to get back into the majors.
Remember, the worst guys on the bench and in the back-of-the-bullpen are still better than any star out of college or high school. It's just when they hit heir stride, how they adapt to the rules and regs of being a ballplayer, and the ability to learn. In a multi-task sport like baseball you may be fast, or powerful, or throw a mean pitch, or catch a ball...but you have to have the ability to bring ALL those skills together at some competent level.
We can argue about Plouffe being in AAA too long. He is an example of a guy who was pushed a level beyond each year. If he was held back (think if you were held back a grade in school), he may be superman in the minors and THIS may be his first big year in the majors, rather than bits and pieces of many.
All levels are adjustments. Some guys ARE more talented than others. But think of playing ball in town with all ages. Or the difference between sophomores and seniors at a high school, or at a college.
The flipside of minor league play is that the lower levels are undisciplined. You get more wildness from the pitchers, more free swinging from the batters. Plus the competitiveness kicks in (will I make it).
You always have to have a place for fill-in players. 40-man guys end up at AAA sometime during their 4 years. If you play in the Arizona Fall League, you more than likely end up at AAA the next season.
By playing at competitive levels for age and skills, a player develops. You can bring Buxton up to the majors tomorrow, but do you want him to take his lumps up here in front of 40,000 people against 25-26-29-30 years olds that far outclass anything he has seen, or against comprable best each year as he goes thru a system.
Yes, msot of the guys at AA could be playing AAA ball if there wasn't roster sports for AAAA-types (giving those 6-year guys one more chance).
07-08-2012, 12:35 AM #31
07-08-2012, 01:29 PM #32
a guy like Plouffe is a tough example of the difference between AA & AAA as he's become a totally different player the last 3/4yrs as he's developed his power. Bill Smith was also his GM his first couple yrs in AAA & thats not a guy to analyze talent.
Watching the Braves & their new SS....22 yr old Andrelton Simmons got 43gms in AA this yr. Went from SSeason to A+ to AA to majors in 2 calender yrs.
This is the new style of baseball that MN needs to catch up with. ONE of the reasons IMO why they are so far behind the curve of other teams.
Last edited by greengoblinrulz; 07-08-2012 at 01:47 PM.
07-08-2012, 02:21 PM #33
07-08-2012, 08:26 PM #34
the problem with moving top talent rapidly is that you end up with guys like Gomez or Young.... or on the other side, the guy finally figures it out as he gets expensive... Sano would get killed in MLB right now... no reason to be agressive with him just because he's highly rated.
07-09-2012, 01:09 AM #35
07-09-2012, 08:57 AM #36
07-09-2012, 09:08 AM #37
Young and Gomez are fine examples. Both rushed, both are now expensive. Both may still hit a big prime when they get to 28-31, but at what cost to a franchise. Sometimes, being in the minors teaches humility and responsibility. You still are playing a game that may be fun, but you have to realize that nothing in life is truly easy and does take hard work.
07-09-2012, 09:36 AM #38
Young and Gomez are fine examples of guys that moved rapidly through a system and failed in the MLB. However, both had unwarranted advancements. There are also plenty of examples of guys who were moved quickly that succeeded.
07-09-2012, 10:04 AM #39
Simmons is a rare case that really compares to no one in the Twins system IMO. He is an elite defensive SS, and was clearly ready to play SS for a major league team. The Braves called him up because he immediately shored up their middle IF and didn't expect/need much from his bat.
07-09-2012, 05:29 PM #40
Damn, a lot of things to respond to. A lot of good thoughts here. So the top of the New Britain lineup: Hicks, Herrmann, Arcia, Colabello, and Bigley is on a roll right now. I personally would like to see them promote everyone except for Arcia (maybe that's ironic since he is the best prospect . . . but perhaps players like him don't need to bother with AAA). The other four certainly need to advance even that small step, see some closer-to-the-majors, pitching, etc. This is starting to look a little like the New Britain situation last year. You know: Dozier, Benson, Parmelee, Herrmann, and Solarte . . . . how did not promoting to AAA appropriately turn out there, again??!!